Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread

[dckingsfan]

That chart is saying that the are less than 2 severe cases per 100K for people younger than 30. The risk of vaccine induced myocarditis for young boys is estimated to be 6.6 per 100K (according to CDC numbers), or between 9.4 and 16.2 per 100K (recent study by Hoeg, et al.).

Why should my son take a 6.6 in 100K risk from the vaccine to reduce his severe Covid risk from 1.6 in 100K to 0 in 100K?

So how many of those myocarditis cases are severe?

That and the chances of getting Myocarditis is lower from the vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) than getting Covid itself. And with Delta, everyone will eventually get Covid.

There has not been a similar reports of myocarditis observed after receipt of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine - so a parent could go that way.

Myocarditis from vaccines has resolved itself without hospitalization a vast majority of the time. And has resolved itself 100% of the time, no deaths (to answer your question). The same cannot be said about getting Covid.

Long hauler probability is much lower with vaccine. Hospitalization rates are lower with the vaccine. Death is lower with the vaccine. Giving a classmate, teacher or school staff member Covid is lower with the vaccine.

I get having a personal opinion about getting a kid vaccinated. But a parent that does the research will find that getting the vaccine is safer. But that won't easily make it through the cognitive dissonance barrier. Sadly, some parents will hear Myocarditis and freak out... too bad.

[tontoz]

Doesn't J&J have the blot clot issue, TTS? Also from what i have read it is less effective than the mRNA vaccines.

[Ruzious]

That chart is saying that the are less than 2 severe cases per 100K for people younger than 30. The risk of vaccine induced myocarditis for young boys is estimated to be 6.6 per 100K (according to CDC numbers), or between 9.4 and 16.2 per 100K (recent study by Hoeg, et al.).

Why should my son take a 6.6 in 100K risk from the vaccine to reduce his severe Covid risk from 1.6 in 100K to 0 in 100K?

So how many of those myocarditis cases are severe?

That and the chances of getting Myocarditis is lower from the vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) than getting Covid itself. And with Delta, everyone will eventually get Covid.

There has not been a similar reports of myocarditis observed after receipt of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine - so a parent could go that way.

Myocarditis from vaccines has resolved itself without hospitalization a vast majority of the time. And has resolved itself 100% of the time, no deaths (to answer your question). The same cannot be said about getting Covid.

Long hauler probability is much lower with vaccine. Hospitalization rates are lower with the vaccine. Death is lower with the vaccine. Giving a classmate, teacher or school staff member Covid is lower with the vaccine.

I get having a personal opinion about getting a kid vaccinated. But a parent that does the research will find that getting the vaccine is safer. But that won't easily make it through the cognitive dissonance barrier. Sadly, some parents will hear Myocarditis and freak out... too bad.

Yup. I gotta laugh - the Orioles first round pick from 2020, Heston Kjerstad, got Myocarditis, and on an O's message board, someone was trying to push the view that he must have gotten it from taking the vaccine. Except... he contracted it before any vaccine was available to the public. Myocarditis has kept him out for 2 seasons, but he reported yesterday that he's now cleared to start hitting again, and he should have zero problems with it going forward. And his problem with Myocarditis was reportedly considerably more severe than most who have gotten it. Myocarditis is NOT a reason to not get vaccinated. More people get it who didn't get vaccinated.

[tontoz]

AMA survey shows over 96% of doctors fully vaccinated against COVID-19

CHICAGO — The American Medical Association (AMA) today released a new survey (PDF) among practicing physicians that shows more than 96 percent of surveyed U.S. physicians have been fully vaccinated for COVID-19, with no significant difference in vaccination rates across regions. Of the physicians who are not yet vaccinated, an additional 45 percent do plan to get vaccinated.

https://www.ama-assn.org/press-center/press-releases/ama-survey-shows-over-96-doctors-fully-vaccinated-against-covid-19

This survey was done in June well before the vaccines were FDA approved.

[doclinkin]

Why should my son take a 6.6 in 100K risk from the vaccine to reduce his severe Covid risk from 1.6 in 100K to 0 in 100K?

Studies suggest COVID itself likely causes myocarditis.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7199677/

Likely most COVID caused myocardia doesn't rise to the level of hospitalization and therefore would not be detected. My resting heartbeat was like 80 when I had it. But I didn't go to the hospital. Most mild cases recover with time. Seemingly asymptomatic youths may in fact have had racing heartbeat and not noticed it and never been tested. However on a vaccine trial, many more people would be tested. Given that the vaccine mimics a mild case of COVID infection, sure, no doubt people may test as having myocarditis. Also no doubt their likelihood of serious illness from the vaccine is far less than the host of possible complications from an actual COVID infection, whether or not it results in hospitalization.

[tontoz]

And with Delta, everyone will eventually get Covid.

So how long do you think that will take?

[nate33]

Why should my son take a 6.6 in 100K risk from the vaccine to reduce his severe Covid risk from 1.6 in 100K to 0 in 100K?

Studies suggest COVID itself likely causes myocarditis.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7199677/

Likely most COVID caused myocardia doesn't rise to the level of hospitalization and therefore would not be detected. My resting heartbeat was like 80 when I had it. But I didn't go to the hospital. Most mild cases recover with time. Seemingly asymptomatic youths may in fact have had racing heartbeat and not noticed it and never been tested. However on a vaccine trial, many more people would be tested. Given that the vaccine mimics a mild case of COVID infection, sure, no doubt people may test as having myocarditis. Also no doubt their likelihood of serious illness from the vaccine is far less than the host of possible complications from and actual COVID infection, whether or not it results in hospitalization.

That link basically says they don't know how often myocarditis happens, and it certainly doesn't break it down for kids.

Let's try it another way. We need to compare apples to apples. We can't compare general all hospitalizations due to Covid versus just myocarditis due to the vaccine.

The CDC reports that 1.2 kids per 100,000 get hospitalized each week for Covid (eyeball the average for that dotted line below). But the source data says that 45% of these hospitalizations are with a primary reason for hospitalization "clearly not Covid related". So shave off 45%, getting us to an average of about 0.6 per hospitalizations per 100,000 per week. Notably, 11.8% of that 0.6 per 100,000 had diabetes, a condition prevalent in just 0.25% of the adolescent population. So that drops the rate down to 0.5 hospitalizations per 100,000 children without diabetes. (It was more difficult to tease out other comorbidities because of overlap between obesity, asthma, etc. so I didn't bother)



So with an average hospitalization rate of 0.5 per 100,000 per week, one can expect, over the course of a year, 26 hospitalizations per 100,000 non-diabetic kids, aged 12-17.

So how does that compare to the vaccine? The only data I can find for vaccine-induced hospitalizations is from this CDC presentation. It estimates that 0.2% of kids require emergency room care or hospitalization within 7 days of vaccination. That's equal to 200 vaccine-induced hospitalizations per 100,000 kids.

I'm sure many of those vaccine-induced hospitalizations are minor and resolve themselves quickly. I'm not trying to bash vaccines. My point here is how incredibly rare hospitalizations are among kids who get Covid. The media has perpetuated an irrational fear. The risk of Covid is so extraordinarily low for children, there's no reason for them to subject them to the small but non-zero risk of vaccination. Exceptions apply to those with diabetes, and perhaps some other comorbidities, but not for healthy kids.

[tontoz]

The CDC reports that 1.2 kids per 100,000 get hospitalized each week for Covid (eyeball the average for that dotted line below). .

First of all the data the CDC is referencing here are pre-Delta when schools were closed.

Hospitalization of Adolescents Aged 12–17 Years with Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 — COVID-NET, 14 States, March 1, 2020–April 24, 2021

Right now schools are open, Delta is raging and hospital cases among kids are spiking.

COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations among kids continue to soar

About 365 children per day are being hospitalized with COVID-19 in the United States, an increase of more than 100 per day from a month earlier, according to the latest figures from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2021/09/covid-19-infections-hospitalizations-among-kids-continue-to-soar.html


Secondly unless i am missing something your data about the vaccines seems to be from VAERS reports, not the result of actual investigations. Literally anyone can file a report to VAERS.

This is directly from the VAERS site:

While very important in monitoring vaccine safety, VAERS reports alone cannot be used to determine if a vaccine caused or contributed to an adverse event or illness. The reports may contain information that is incomplete, inaccurate, coincidental, or unverifiable. In large part, reports to VAERS are voluntary, which means they are subject to biases. This creates specific limitations on how the data can be used scientifically. Data from VAERS reports should always be interpreted with these limitations in mind.

https://vaers.hhs.gov/data.html

Health care providers and the vaccine manufacturers are required to report severe reactions. Parents can also make reports. Theoretically a severe event for one kid could be reported 3 times.

[nate33]

The CDC reports that 1.2 kids per 100,000 get hospitalized each week for Covid (eyeball the average for that dotted line below). .

First of all the data the CDC is referencing here are pre-Delta when schools were closed.

Hospitalization of Adolescents Aged 12–17 Years with Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 — COVID-NET, 14 States, March 1, 2020–April 24, 2021

Right now schools are open, Delta is raging and hospital cases among kids are spiking.

COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations among kids continue to soar

About 365 children per day are being hospitalized with COVID-19 in the United States, an increase of more than 100 per day from a month earlier, according to the latest figures from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2021/09/covid-19-infections-hospitalizations-among-kids-continue-to-soar.html

There are 80 million children in the country. 365 per day is 2500 per week. 2500 per week per 80 million is 3.2 per 100,000. Assume that same 45% are hospitalized with Covid not because Covid and we're down to 1.7 per 100,000. Drop the diabetics and we're down to 1.5 per 100,000 per week during a seasonal peak (in the South, at least). So, at worst, we are up to 75 per 100,000 per year (from 25 under Alpha). But it's really not that bad because studies have consistently shown that Delta is less virulent. What is happening is more kids are getting infected, but with lesser ill effects. So we are proceeding to herd immunity at at least 3 times the rate as we did under Alpha, but with no more harm on a case by case basis.

Secondly unless i am missing something your data about the vaccines seems to be from VAERS reports, not the result of actual investigations. Literally anyone can file a report to VAERS.

This is directly from the VAERS site:

While very important in monitoring vaccine safety, VAERS reports alone cannot be used to determine if a vaccine caused or contributed to an adverse event or illness. The reports may contain information that is incomplete, inaccurate, coincidental, or unverifiable. In large part, reports to VAERS are voluntary, which means they are subject to biases. This creates specific limitations on how the data can be used scientifically. Data from VAERS reports should always be interpreted with these limitations in mind.

https://vaers.hhs.gov/data.html

Health care providers and the vaccine manufacturers are required to report severe reactions. Parents can also make reports. Theoretically a severe event for one kid could be reported 3 times.

VAERS tends to underreport incidents, not overreport them. It's true that the underreporting for serious side effects is less dramatic than the underreporting for minor side effects, but typically, it underreports on everything:

-A 1995 study found that 68% of poliomyelitis (severe nerve disorder) cases from the oral poliovirus vaccine were reported to VAERS (reporting sensitivity: 68%). But this number was <1% for non-severe rashes from the mumps/measles/rubella (MMR) vaccine. (This data can also be misused to say that only <1% of vaccine adverse events get reported).

-A 2001 study found that 47% of cases of rotavirus vaccine-associated intussusception (severe intestinal disorder) were successfully reported to VAERS (reporting sensitivity: 47%).

-A 2013 survey study in the U.S. found that 73% of healthcare providers were very or extremely likely to report a serious vaccine adverse event, whereas only 13% were keen to report a minor one.

-A 2020 study tracked the reporting sensitivity of anaphylaxis (severe allergic reaction) and Guillain–Barré syndrome (severe nerve disorder) from various vaccines. Results (see table below) showed that the reporting sensitivity of anaphylaxis ranges from 13–76% from seven different vaccines. For Guillain–Barré syndrome, the reporting sensitivity is 12% from the 2012–2013 influenza vaccine, 15–55% from the 2009 influenza vaccine, and 64% from the 2006–2015 human papillomavirus vaccine.

[dckingsfan]

Reporting was never VAERS intended purpose - but it has been misused constantly to obfuscate.

https://www.factcheck.org/2021/03/scicheck-viral-posts-misuse-vaers-data-to-make-false-claims-about-covid-19-vaccines/

https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-vaers-faers-idUSL2N2OE1ZA

The chances of getting Myocarditis is lower from the vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) than getting Covid itself.

There have not been a similar reports of myocarditis observed after receipt of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine - so a parent could go that way.

Myocarditis from vaccines has resolved itself without hospitalization a vast majority of the time. And has resolved itself 100% of the time, still no deaths. The same cannot be said about getting Covid.

Long hauler probability is much lower with vaccine. Hospitalization rates are lower with the vaccine. Death is lower with the vaccine. Giving a classmate, teacher or school staff member Covid is lower with the vaccine.

If you don't want to have you kid take the vaccine - okay. Passing bad info to other parents... ugh.

[dckingsfan]

And with Delta, everyone will eventually get Covid.

So how long do you think that will take?

That is the question right? Or one of the questions.

Adults not getting vaccinated have really munged up our hospital systems. But look at Covid like a fire that never completely burns out... it gets into fresh wood and flames up. Over time, I think enough will get Covid until this becomes manageable. How long that takes depends on how fast those who haven't had Covid get vaccinated or get Covid.

Then we should be fine - well, if no other sneaky variant pops up. But Delta doesn't seem to want to give up its seat as #1.

[tontoz]

Schools literally just opened. A lot schools didn't open until after Labor Day and the data is lagging. We dont know yet how things will play out in schools but the trend is pretty clear.

Secondly VAERS own site puts in a disclaimer about how to use their data. There is a reason for that but antivaxers insist on ignoring this.

This article is directly from the website from your link, Microbial Instincts, posted 2 days ago:

Risk-benefit analyses
Does this mean that younger males should get other types of Covid-19 vaccines? Not really. At least for now, the benefits of mRNA vaccine still outweigh its potential risk of heart inflammation. But it might be a different story for vaccine boosters, as discussed below.
For one, mRNA vaccine-related heart inflammation is still very rare — at an excess of 2.7 cases per 100,000 persons or 6.3 cases per million doses, based on the abovementioned Israel and U.S. studies, respectively.

Second, no deaths have occurred from the hundreds of cases of mRNA vaccine-related heart inflammation in young adults in the U.S. so far. This is maybe except for one news article and case study. News from New Zealand reported that a woman (age undisclosed) died from myocarditis after a few days of getting the mRNA vaccine. In the case study, a 42-year-old male in the U.S. died of myocarditis and cardiogenic shock two weeks after getting the second dose of Moderna’s mRNA vaccine. But mRNA vaccine-related heart inflammation usually occurs in younger males within a week of vaccination, so the cause of death in those cases is still questionable.

Third, even though mRNA vaccine-related heart inflammation is not fatal, it can be severe enough to warrant hospitalization. But it usually resolves within days with standard anti-inflammatory treatment. Long-term health consequences of mRNA vaccine-related heart inflammation are still unclear, although the same applies to Covid-19 or long-Covid syndrome.
Fourth, mRNA vaccines are one of the best Covid-19 vaccines, only second to the Novavax subunit vaccine. So, mRNA vaccines offer high protection against SARS-CoV-2 that can also cause heart inflammation and injury that’s much more common and severe. For example, in the Israel study mentioned above, the risk of myocarditis in SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals is 18-times higher than uninfected individuals, giving an excess of 11 excess events per 100,000 persons. This number is only 2.7 excess when comparing vaccinated (with Pfizer’s mRNA) vs. unvaccinated individuals.

Fifth, mRNA vaccines are arguably the most studied Covid-19 vaccine thus far. The first FDA approval of a Covid-19 vaccine is Pfizer’s mRNA vaccine. The discovery of mRNA vaccine-related heart inflammation is also a testament to their extensively studied safety profile. Who knows, maybe other adverse events related to other Covid-19 vaccines won’t get known until later.
So, it seems that the risk of mRNA vaccine-related heart inflammation is unlikely to outweigh the benefits of mRNA vaccine.

https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/heart-inflammation-from-mrna-vaccine-probable-causes-and-precautions-72a2745635b

[nate33]

Schools literally just opened. A lot schools didn't open until after Labor Day and the data is lagging. We dont know yet how things will play out in schools but the trend is pretty clear.

There really isn't any statistical evidence that Covid spread faster in schools than outside them. Basically, the transmission rate within schools tends to be lower than the transmission rate in the local community. There's a reason that most schools in Europe have now opened without any restrictions.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/transmission_k_12_schools.html#schools-cov2-transmission

[dckingsfan]

Schools literally just opened. A lot schools didn't open until after Labor Day and the data is lagging. We dont know yet how things will play out in schools but the trend is pretty clear.

It is certainly clear when it comes to community spread...

I am not for doing remote learning though, I think the benefits of in-person learning outweigh the distance learning. Although clearly the pandemic has changed education and will continue to do so.

I think our failure with schools/Covid goes all the way back to last year. The notion that this is a short-term pandemic vs. an endemic. The consequences of that thinking were:

- we didn't put in proper ventilation
- we didn't make sure proper PPE was distributed
- we didn't have strategies to deal with large communal outbreaks:
* short-term distance learning
or
* keeping kids separated into pods
* daily testing of the pods

Opening schools was never going to be "safe" but we could have made them much safer. Schools have teachers and staff as well.

Anecdotal but to your point: Lots of schools down here in Texas are closed because of outbreaks. But it isn't because of kids being sick it is the teachers and staff can't come back to teach and take care of business.

[dckingsfan]

Schools literally just opened. A lot schools didn't open until after Labor Day and the data is lagging. We dont know yet how things will play out in schools but the trend is pretty clear.

There really isn't any statistical evidence that Covid spread faster in schools than outside them. Basically, the transmission rate within schools tends to be lower than the transmission rate in the local community. There's a reason that most schools in Europe have now opened without any restrictions.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/transmission_k_12_schools.html#schools-cov2-transmission

Study pre Delta.

The point is with Delta - kids spread it just as fast as adults. But adults generally don't group like kids do. Faster doesn't matter with Delta and its high R value. Both are extremely fast.

Denmark has reopened schools but... they have an 80+% vaccination rate for those over 12

[tontoz]

Schools literally just opened. A lot schools didn't open until after Labor Day and the data is lagging. We dont know yet how things will play out in schools but the trend is pretty clear.

There really isn't any statistical evidence that Covid spread faster in schools than outside them. Basically, the transmission rate within schools tends to be lower than the transmission rate in the local community. There's a reason that most schools in Europe have now opened without any restrictions.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/transmission_k_12_schools.html#schools-cov2-transmission

That link is from July 9 when our schools were closed.

[nate33]

Schools literally just opened. A lot schools didn't open until after Labor Day and the data is lagging. We dont know yet how things will play out in schools but the trend is pretty clear.

There really isn't any statistical evidence that Covid spread faster in schools than outside them. Basically, the transmission rate within schools tends to be lower than the transmission rate in the local community. There's a reason that most schools in Europe have now opened without any restrictions.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/transmission_k_12_schools.html#schools-cov2-transmission

That link is from July 9 when our schools were closed.

yes, but it involved data from the prior school year.

[tontoz]

Anyone else getting the feeling that Nate is just trolling at this point?

[dckingsfan]

Anyone else getting the feeling that Nate is just trolling at this point?

I think there is a lot of cognitive dissonance out there. This has been two different pandemics for the US Alpha and then Delta.

And the things that were true - aren't necessarily true any longer but once you set that thinking - it is hard to change tracks.

There was a lot of misinformation followed by disinformation out there last year. An example: it started with "kids don't get Covid", then "kids don't spread Covid". Well, Delta knocked that one down. You may have felt it was a disservice to close any school last year because who was going to get sick. No one right. Kids don't spread Covid. With Delta - well, damn - it doesn't hold.

Or last year with Alpha - it was just old people dying and going to the hospital. Now we have 1/2 of hospitalizations under 50 and 40% of those with no comorbidities. That is harder to put into a box from last year's notion.

And then there is long haulers. Take a multiple of the deaths and you have that number - it is not insignificant (although that is the only argument you can make to put it in a box).

And then you have this surge that is overwhelming our hospitals and killing folks that don't have Covid due to resource drains. This is a difficult one to put in a box and make go away since the vast majority of the hospitalizations are those that are unvaccinated.

It is hard to reconcile for some...

[nate33]

Myocarditis from vaccines has resolved itself without hospitalization a vast majority of the time. And has resolved itself 100% of the time, still no deaths. The same cannot be said about getting Covid.

You keep shifting the goalposts.

Why do you only focus on myocarditis deaths rather than all vaccine-related deaths? VAERS reports 21 deaths among kids ages 6-17. And as I pointed out before, VAERS tends to underestimate significant side effects and significantly underestimate minor side effects. But let's take that number as it is.

So that is 21 deaths out of 12 million kids vaccinated, for a death rate of 1.75 per million. That's not very high, as I have consistently stated, but it's a non-zero risk. And it's a number very much in line with the Covid death rate for healthy kids who have contracted Covid.