Presti's Tree Reaches DC: The Official Will Dawkins Thread

[tontoz]

They will definitely pick up Bilal's option years. They might not give him a new contract though. They might end up trading him rather than paying him but there is no urgency to make a decision now.

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

[doclinkin]

The most encouraging aspect of Bilal’s offensive game last season was his ability to use his quickness to take his defender off the dribble and get an open shot in the paint.

However, he missed far too many of the ensuing short jumpers. I’m sure that’s an aspect of his game that he’ll also be working on.

Or you know he can just do this:

Watch on YouTube

This is the guy who’s ‘marginally’ better than Johnny Davis according to some. SMH.

Yeah, this front office will pick up the option and extend him. Zero question in my mind. The only wonder I have is if his breakout year comes too early to catch him at a real bargain.

[leswizards]

That fact is the Wizards have one season left to determine whether they are going to pick up his option or not. So far Bilal has not been very good. Contrary to your belief that he is a 3 and d player, he is actually very far below average as a three point shooter. And he is also below average as a shooter in general. If Bilal doesn’t improve significantly this season, and the Wizards pick up his option, it is not because he has earned it; it is merely because the Wizards are invested in their hope that he will get better.

Or because of the likelihood and understanding that young players get better. This was the front office who was smart enough to extend Deni to that contract, early before his real breakout. The same Deni that has caused all this hair pulling and unseemly whining. But if they had treated Deni with the above rush to judgement they'd have jettisoned him. Here's Deni stacked up against Bilal in years 1-2:

https://stathead.com/tiny/vlxgP

Pretty much the exact same player. Deni rebounds better. Fouls a little more. Bilal gets to the line more often. Both were noted as surprisingly good defenders when matched against opposing top scorers. Though Deni is a year older than Bilal. Which matters. Young players get better. Younger players have a chance to get better for longer. Productive teens often have higher upside. If you can lock them in and extend them before the typical breakout year (~age 23) you have a steal for their 2nd contract.

I know folks have hurt feels about Deni, because he was the rare homegrown talent who actually started to become good while on the Wizards. It is ironic though that given the long history of players leaving this squad and then breaking out, or becoming champions, that we would have people arguing for us to do exactly that with the guys we do have. Or assuming the guys you see today are at their limit, vs who they will be by the end of their contract or career.

It is short sighted to judge this crew after 1 season. Or 2. When the team mandate is to lose so as not to ship away a key asset. We can't afford to lose a 1st round draft pick, so we have picked young and raw players that have upside and a long way to go. If you don't see the potential in the guys we've got, vs their immediate production, you aren't taking a long view. Or your vision is clouded by your blues over losing your favorite player crush. And frankly you need to get over it.

First, who are you to dictate how people react to what this front office is doing. This franchise has been abysmal for decades, and fans have a right to express their opinions. And, just because you think that they are executing a well thought out plan to turn around this franchise does not make it so.

Second, I have never had any problem with the deni trade, in fact I think it was a good one. So, why you quoted my post and then made those comments about getting over the Deni trade is beyond me.

Third, your comments are not the flex you think they are. First, Deni was never all that great with the Wizards, but he was better than all the Dawkins first rounders. But let’s take Deni as the measuring stick you desire: rather than drafting Bilal, the Wizards could have gotten numerous great players who as this lottery has shown may not have hurt the tank, but may have actually helped it, and then 3 or 4 years down the road when Bilal is finally ready to break out the Wizards can get him for a first rounder that is equivalent to the 14th pick in an awful draft plus a first rounder that is 8 or 9 years in the future.

[DCZards]

Third, your comments are not the flex you think they are. First, Deni was never all that great with the Wizards, but he was better than all the Dawkins first rounders. But let’s take Deni as the measuring stick you desire: rather than drafting Bilal, the Wizards could have gotten numerous great players who as this lottery has shown may not have hurt the tank, but may have actually helped it, and then 3 or 4 years down the road when Bilal is finally ready to break out the Wizards can get him for a first rounder that is equivalent to the 14th pick in an awful draft plus a first rounder that is 8 or 9 years in the future.

Still wondering who are the “numerous great players” that the Zards could have drafted in 2023 instead of Bilal.

Cason Wallace, Dereck Lively, and Brandon Podziemski are good players. I’ll give you that. But they are not “great.”

Jaime Jaquez and Trayce Jackson-Davis are decent players…but they barely got any playing time on their struggling playoff teams. That doesn’t happen to “great players.”

I have no problem with Dawkins and Co. taking a chance on the raw but young and physically gifted Bilal. His numbers are already showing that he’s an elite defender. (Per Doc’s post a few pages back.) Let’s see how Bilal’s offense looks in a couple of years.

[leswizards]

Third, your comments are not the flex you think they are. First, Deni was never all that great with the Wizards, but he was better than all the Dawkins first rounders. But let’s take Deni as the measuring stick you desire: rather than drafting Bilal, the Wizards could have gotten numerous great players who as this lottery has shown may not have hurt the tank, but may have actually helped it, and then 3 or 4 years down the road when Bilal is finally ready to break out the Wizards can get him for a first rounder that is equivalent to the 14th pick in an awful draft plus a first rounder that is 8 or 9 years in the future.

Still wondering who are the “numerous great players” that the Zards could have drafted in 2023 instead of Bilal.

Cason Wallace, Dereck Lively, and Brandon Podziemski are good players. I’ll give you that. But they are not “great.”

Jaime Jaquez and Trayce Jackson-Davis are decent players…but they barely got any playing time on their struggling playoff teams. That doesn’t happen to “great players.”

I have no problem with Dawkins and Co. taking a chance on the raw but young and physically gifted Bilal. His numbers are already showing that he’s an elite defender. (Per Doc’s post a few pages back.) Let’s see how Bilal’s offense looks in a couple of years.

First, all the players that I mentioned have been significantly better than Bilal, and that is sufficient for me. I am not to get into a stupid semantic debate over whether they are great according to your arbitrary definition of great which you seemed determined to define in any way that precludes someone actually naming someone who can fit the definition.

Second, it is odd how first rounders on other teams are seemed to be judged statically, as if what they are now is what they will always be, while Dawkins first rounders are judged dynamically as if what their supporters project them to be is what they will be.

Third, Bilal has played 0 playoff minutes. I don’t see how playing playoff minutes for a good team should be used against other players.

[GoneShammGone]

The most encouraging aspect of Bilal’s offensive game last season was his ability to use his quickness to take his defender off the dribble and get an open shot in the paint.

However, he missed far too many of the ensuing short jumpers. I’m sure that’s an aspect of his game that he’ll also be working on.

Or you know he can just do this:

Watch on YouTube

This is the guy who’s ‘marginally’ better than Johnny Davis according to some. SMH.

Yeah, this front office will pick up the option and extend him. Zero question in my mind. The only wonder I have is if his breakout year comes too early to catch him at a real bargain.

I noticed quite a few nice dimes from Mr Alex Sarr in that highlight stream!

[doclinkin]

First, who are you to dictate how people react to what this front office is doing.

Know what, you're right. Reasonable people can disagree. Stats and pundits and opposing stars like LeBron and Draymond disagree with your position that the young Wizkids are 'marginally better than Johnny Davis'. But you are free to make the case.

Second, I have never had any problem with the deni trade, in fact I think it was a good one.

Fair enough. Not you.

Weird to me then since from what I can see the Wiz have done a really solid job of selecting for value at their position. But that is from the perspective of understanding how good they are for their age. Young players start out bad -- see the Kobe. TMac comparison I showed before; or with Deni where all of Bilal, Bub, and even Kyshawn had better rookie seasons than Avdija.

With teenage NBA rookies if they show flashes early they often end up very very good. I personally like the flashes shown. I can actually understand the upset on Deni, who has gone on to grow into the player we all hoped he would if he stayed here. I just wonder how long we are going to hear about it. We didn't even have this level of misery with Webber. Sheed. Big Ben. Rip. At some point a fanbase has to progress through the stages of grief otherwise it gets toxic. We are nowhere near the Acceptance phase. Still in anger and bargaining. Retroactively coming up with ways we could have kept Deni and traded Kuz and still not lost the (top 10 protected) pick, etc.

[payitforward]

This discussion feels almost meaningless to me. Bilal is still only 20 years old. Jaime Jaquez -- if he's your idea of whom we should have picked in Bilal's place -- is 4 full years older.

[doclinkin]

Second, it is odd how first rounders on other teams are seemed to be judged statically, as if what they are now is what they will always be, while Dawkins first rounders are judged dynamically as if what their supporters project them to be is what they will be.

Because the players you cite are 2-4 years older than Bilal.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=bilal-coulibaly--trayce-jackson-davis--jaime-jaquez-jr--brandin-podziemski--cason-wallace

Cason Wallace being an exception (though he was 9 months older than Bilal). Point being young players grow and develop. Older players are more likely closer to fully developed. All of these players are good picks and good value for where they were picked. You can expect them all to have good careers. Guys like Podziemski and Wallace surely will develop more. So far it looks like none of them are likely to shut down opposing scorers as the stats say Bilal has done. Nor are any of them likely to do this:

Watch on YouTube

That's what you get when you draft for youth and upside. Moments of highlight brilliance, more than instant box score production. Over time you try to train the player to be able to consistently bring you those highlights. If so you have an all-star. Not sure which of the guys you cite you think may have all-star potential. Bilal has a chance. Yes, IF he develops. The team has invested heavily on development. Not just hope. Training.

It is a draft philosophy meant not for short term gain but the biggest best return on the investment in the long haul. A strategy. We need stars most of all. If we can't draft one top 3 then we will have to grow our own.

[nate33]

I don't even understand this sudden negative outlook on Bilal. I think Bilal was a very good draft pick and I'm still real excited about his future. It's not just the defense. I am really impressed with his passing. From December onward, the kid averaged 4 assists per 36 minutes as a secondary ball hander. And that from a 20-year-old who happens to have the length of a power forward. I think there could be some Scottie Pippen in there. Scottie Pippen didn't become a "point forward" until age 24.

[DCZards]

I don't even understand this sudden negative outlook on Bilal. I think Bilal was a very good draft pick and I'm still real excited about his future. It's not just the defense. I am really impressed with his passing. From December onward, the kid averaged 4 assists per 36 minutes as a secondary ball hander. And that from a 20-year-old who happens to have the length of a power forward. I think there could be some Scottie Pippen in there. Scottie Pippen didn't become a "point forward" until age 24.

It's not really about Bilal. It's more about not wanting to give Dawkins any credit for taking a chance on a high upside player like Bilal.

[dcstanley]

He missed numerous players both years. I would name them, but it seems that you will only accept “franchise guys”, and I am not going to get into that debate.

Nonsense. You can’t name “numerous” players in either year that Dawkins missed out on. Maybe a couple of players…but even those would be debatable given that at this point we don’t know how good Bilal, Sarr, Bub and George will be in 2-3 years.

And, yes, like it or not, we need to give the youngins we drafted time to develop.

2023: Cason Wallace, Derek Lively, Brandon Podziemski, Trayve Jackson-Davis, Jaime Jaquez Jr, et al

2024: Zach eddy, kel’el ware, Donovan clingan, yves missi, jaylen wells, dalton knecht, Tristan da Silva, Kyle Filipowski, et al

If these are the players Dawkins missed out on, I’d say he’s done pretty well.

Seriously, what is there to lament about drafting Bilal instead of guys like Jaquez and Jackson-Davis? They’re 3-4 years older and have already been phased out of their team’s rotation.

[doclinkin]

…

For what’s its worth leswiz I appreciate your willingness to take an opinion and defend it even under heavy crossfire. You feel how you feel. Hopefully the young pups will prove you wrong. There’s no question the team is not ‘good’ yet. Much less great. Fair to want better and more. I think the only part we really disagree on is the expectations of how quick that can be.

Respect.

[nate33]

They will definitely pick up Bilal's option years. They might not give him a new contract though. They might end up trading him rather than paying him but there is no urgency to make a decision now.

They will definitely pick up his option years and they will definitely try and extend him next summer before he enters his 4th season.

[leswizards]

Second, it is odd how first rounders on other teams are seemed to be judged statically, as if what they are now is what they will always be, while Dawkins first rounders are judged dynamically as if what their supporters project them to be is what they will be.

Because the players you cite are 2-4 years older than Bilal.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=bilal-coulibaly--trayce-jackson-davis--jaime-jaquez-jr--brandin-podziemski--cason-wallace

Cason Wallace being an exception (though he was 9 months older than Bilal). Point being young players grow and develop. Older players are more likely closer to fully developed. All of these players are good picks and good value for where they were picked. You can expect them all to have good careers. Guys like Podziemski and Wallace surely will develop more. So far it looks like none of them are likely to shut down opposing scorers as the stats say Bilal has done. Nor are any of them likely to do this:

Watch on YouTube

That's what you get when you draft for youth and upside. Moments of highlight brilliance, more than instant box score production. Over time you try to train the player to be able to consistently bring you those highlights. If so you have an all-star. Not sure which of the guys you cite you think may have all-star potential. Bilal has a chance. Yes, IF he develops. The team has invested heavily on development. Not just hope. Training.

It is a draft philosophy meant not for short term gain but the biggest best return on the investment in the long haul. A strategy. We need stars most of all. If we can't draft one top 3 then we will have to grow our own.

That is false. Cason Wallace, Dereck Lively and Brandon Podziemski all range from slightly older to just slightly a year older than Bilal.

Additionally, Cam Whitmore, Jarace Walker, Gradey Dick and Noah Clowney have all been better than Bilal, and are at most a year older. Do they get the benefit of dynamic grading or is that only reserved for Dawkins first rounders?

[leswizards]

I don't even understand this sudden negative outlook on Bilal. I think Bilal was a very good draft pick and I'm still real excited about his future. It's not just the defense. I am really impressed with his passing. From December onward, the kid averaged 4 assists per 36 minutes as a secondary ball hander. And that from a 20-year-old who happens to have the length of a power forward. I think there could be some Scottie Pippen in there. Scottie Pippen didn't become a "point forward" until age 24.

It's not really about Bilal. It's more about not wanting to give Dawkins any credit for taking a chance on a high upside player like Bilal.

You are correct it is about Dawkins. Until Bilal or any of his first rounders actually pan out, he does not deserve credit.

And many of Dawkins defenders were the loudest critics of Shepherd’s drafting, when 3 of his 4 first round picks were better than Dawkins.

[nate33]

I don't even understand this sudden negative outlook on Bilal. I think Bilal was a very good draft pick and I'm still real excited about his future. It's not just the defense. I am really impressed with his passing. From December onward, the kid averaged 4 assists per 36 minutes as a secondary ball hander. And that from a 20-year-old who happens to have the length of a power forward. I think there could be some Scottie Pippen in there. Scottie Pippen didn't become a "point forward" until age 24.

It's not really about Bilal. It's more about not wanting to give Dawkins any credit for taking a chance on a high upside player like Bilal.

You are correct it is about Dawkins. Until Bilal or any of his first rounders actually pan out, he does not deserve credit.

And many of Dawkins defenders were the loudest critics of Shepherd’s drafting, when 3 of his 4 first round picks were better than Dawkins.

I think it's silly, if not flat-out disingenuous to try and compare the production of Dawkins' rookies and very young 2nd-year players versus the production of Shepherd who drafted NBA-ready adults like Rui and Kispert (and Davis lol).

Yes, at this point, Dawkins still gets an "incomplete" on his draft report card, but I think it's pretty reasonable to project that his first two drafts have gone very well relative to the quality of the draft. Based on what I see so far, in a redraft of the 2023 draft, there is only one guy I might consider taking in place of Bilal at #7 and it's Derrick Lively. And I'm not even sure of that.

And in a 2024 redraft, based on what we know so far, the only guy on the board at #14 I'd take over Bub is McCain, and I wouldn't take anybody drafted after George over George. And I think the jury is out on Sarr. It's just too early to make any evaluations on a project like him.

[leswizards]

This discussion feels almost meaningless to me. Bilal is still only 20 years old. Jaime Jaquez -- if he's your idea of whom we should have picked in Bilal's place -- is 4 full years older.

That is cherry picking. Numerous names were given and the best names were all close in age to Bilal. Yet you picked probably the least productive player and 1 of the oldest.

[leswizards]

It's not really about Bilal. It's more about not wanting to give Dawkins any credit for taking a chance on a high upside player like Bilal.

You are correct it is about Dawkins. Until Bilal or any of his first rounders actually pan out, he does not deserve credit.

And many of Dawkins defenders were the loudest critics of Shepherd’s drafting, when 3 of his 4 first round picks were better than Dawkins.

I think it's silly, if not flat-out disingenuous to try and compare the production of Dawkins' rookies and very young 2nd-year players versus the production of Shepherd who drafted NBA-ready adults like Rui and Kispert (and Davis lol).

Yes, at this point, Dawkins still gets an "incomplete" on his draft report card, but I think it's pretty reasonable to project that his first two drafts have gone very well relative to the quality of the draft. Based on what I see so far, in a redraft of the 2023 draft, there is only one guy I might consider taking in place of Bilal at #7 and it's Derrick Lively. And I'm not even sure of that.

And in a 2024 redraft, based on what we know so far, the only guy on the board at #14 I'd take over Bub is McCain, and I wouldn't take anybody drafted after George over George. And I think the jury is out on Sarr. It's just too early to make any evaluations on a project like him.

Deni was what: 19 when he was drafted? Odd, I can’t keep up with these double standards.