Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV

[fishercob]

Ginobili, Splitter, and Seraphin each played for European pro teams prior to appearing in the NBA. That might be why they are considered Euro players.

So did Brandon Jennings. Jeremy Tyler played in Asia.

True, but nowadays US schoolboy legends are so well publicized and scouted that we know all about their exploits well before they graduate HS, fish.

I recall Jennings didn't like having to wait a year in the NCAAs before he could enter the draft. So he went and played in Europe. He is the one who said (while overseas) that Rubio wasn't that good.

Jeremy Tyler should become the face on a new poster for Stay in School. http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeremy_Tyler

What a dumb guy to make the rash decisions he has made. Instead of taking his time to hone his talent into a ten year career, his immaturity has landed him out of the league at 21 years old.

Similarly, foreign studs are pretty well publicized as well -- Rubio, Yao, Manu, etc., were well known in basketball circles, if unproven against American talent.

The question of age and competition level is an interesting one. We discuss it in terms of foreign prospects as well as domestic ones. It occurs to me that a mere handful of college seniors went in last year's first round. This represents a massive sea change from 15 years prior when the majority of first rounders were seniors and all but three were upperclassmen.

I dont believe any of the 2012 seniors (Zeller, NIcholson, Plumlee, Ezeli) project to be impact players. The NBA is recognizing top talent earlier and plucking them from college. As such, the college game is weaker than that it would be with these players. What I don't know is if the overall talent level is better, worse or unchanged than a generation ago (and I don't know how to measure it). This is a question I'd need to answer somehow in order to know whether to trust a tool like YODA that would compare Kelly Olynyk to

But think of the NBA's elite -- Lebron, Durant, Howard, Rose, Gasol, Kove, Love, etc -- most if not all came to the NBA with a year or less of college ball.

So should we downgrade seniors (and redshirt juniors like Olynyk) simply for being seniors, on the theory that they're excelling against a weaker talent pool and if they were good enough the NBA would have harvested them sooner? Because if this draft class is weak, it stands to reason that the overall level of play in college basketball was weak (and there was much discussion to that end this year). So is the data we have on this class that much less impressive?

[Nivek]

It's fine for us fans to say we'd prefer not to draft an international player because we don't know enough about the level of competition they're facing, but I would hope not to have a GM who thinks that way. Teams should have a great read on the level of competition international players are facing.

Each player should be evaluated on his own merits, not as part of a group.

Grunfeld and the front office was guilty of this kind of thinking this past offseason. They identified the wrong problem (youth), and solved it by acquiring veterans. The problem wasn't "youth," however -- it was immaturity. The immaturity issue could have been addressed by adding mature, hard-working young players instead of older guys.

[fishercob]

Yep. Calling Jennings a Euro is misleading. He went overseas because he didn't want to play NCAA when he knew he was going to be a lottery pick regardless, so he took a paycheck instead.
The problem with "Euros" and why I advocate not drafting them isn't that they are European. It's that they play against much worse competition (regardless of it being the 2nd best competition) and we don't have an accurate idea of how they'll play when in the states. See: Vesely's scouting video from Europe showing him hitting 3 pointers and driving to the rim.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INIXanSQy0Y[/youtube]

Maybe the problem is evaluating guys off of highlight videos instead of criteria with slightly more intellectual rigor.

Because advocating not drafting any set subset of people -- given what we know about basketball talent and the composition of the league -- is completely idiotic.

Gasol, Gasol, Dirk, Manu, Parker, Yao, Valanciunus, Asik, Rubio, Varejao, Nene, barbosa, Gallinari, Ibaka, Delfino, Ilyasova, Kanter, Turkoglu, Vlade, Kukoc, Saras, Scola, Petrovic, Batum, Diaw, Bogut, Splitter, Dragic.

Solid strategy to not draft any of "them"!

[dobrojim]

just watched a bit of the CJM video on DX, speaking of seniors.

was kinda encouraged by it. He could turn out to be a sleeper if
there is such a thing. His offensive versatility and BBIQ could be put to
good use by the Wiz, someone who could actually be well suited to
the role previously envisioned for Big Balls.

[stevemcqueen1]

Euros don't necessarily play worse competition than NCAA players. The best Euroleagues are certainly better than any NCAA conference. And it's certainly not a disadvantage for scouts to see you standing out against grown men when you're a young player.

But the thing is most of these Euroleague prospects do not have the kinds of roles with their Pro teams as the NCAA kids do with their programs. Almost all of them come off the bench in very limited roles with minimal PT. The NCAA kids are stars, big men on campus who get tons of minutes per game, tons of shots, they get used to being the star and carrying a team as the guy. It's a totally different experience.

And it also gives them a much bigger in-game body of work to look compared to the Euros.

I think there are a ton of cultural factors in play too. American and Canadian kids don't have anywhere near the difficult cultural transition ahead of them that international players do. That's a pitfall. And I think it's why a lot of international players that end up doing well in the NBA benefit from playing college ball in the USA--more time to just get used to living here before you go into the pressure coooker.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Jeremy Tyler should become the face on a new poster for Stay in School. http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeremy_Tyler

What a dumb guy to make the rash decisions he has made. Instead of taking his time to hone his talent into a ten year career, his immaturity has landed him out of the league at 21 years old.

I think with the right player in the right family situation, going abroad for a year or two could potentially be a wonderful experience. Tennis players and figure skaters relocate at a young age all the time but at the risk of sounding un-PC, those kids come from more stable and affluent homes and learn/exhibit extreme discipline from an early age.
I
Pretty much what guys like the Gasols and Dirk do in those Euro-academies, I don't see why a talented American kid couldn't do.

Good points, pancakes. Andrew Wiggins is a Canadien living away from home with a family in West Virginia, just to provide him opportunities to face top competition. He already had enough support to set out on that path.

Before deciding to skip his senior year of HS, I bet Jeremy Tyler would have been far better off under the guidance of a family like the one Michael Oher lived with, while playing one more season of HS. Tyler left school and quit after 10 games with Maccabi Tel Aviv before he even played in Tokyo.

Your concern about not being PC is not something I worry about, pancakes. I wonder if he's a knucklehead. Would a family structure or others even have been able to tell Jeremy Tyler anything?7

[Dat2U]

Best perimeter shot creator in the draft: C.J. McCollum, Lehigh
WORST: Ben McLemore, Kansas
Most offensively skilled big in the draft: Kelly Olynyk, Gonzaga
LEAST: Steven Adams, Pittsburgh
Best rebounding big in the draft: Mike Muscala, Bucknell
WORST: Tony Mitchell, North Texas
Best perimeter shooter in the draft: Ben McLemore, Kansas
WORST: Archie Goodwin, Kentucky
Best passing PG in the draft: Trey Burke, Michigan,
WORST: Shane Larkin, Miami

Most similar to Nick Young: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Georgia
Most likely to be a headache as a role player: Shabazz Muhammad, UCLA
Most likely to breakout if he ever gets a jumpshot: Jamaal Franklin, San Diego State
Most likely to disappoint if he's drafted too high: Michael Carter-Williams, Syracuse
Most likely to surprise if he's a 2nd round pick: Pierre Jackson, Baylor

Draft's biggest surprise if he keeps his head on straight: Glen Rice Jr., NBDL

[fishercob]

Most similar to Nick Young: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Georgia

Pope rebounds as well overall as Oladipo -- much better on the defensive end. Pope's DReb% is better than Len's!

[Nivek]

In this draft, here's who shows up as "most similar" to Nick Young...

As a junior -- Rodney McGruder, Vander Blue, Will Clyburn

As a sophomore -- Marc Trasolini (Santa Clara), Allen Crabbe

As a freshman -- Doug Anderson (Detroit Mercy).

Guys who show up as most similar to KCP: Chris Johnson (JR -- Dayton), Scott Bamforth (SR -- Wichita State), Will Barton (FR), James Anderson (FR), Kyle Korver (JR), Allen Crabbe (FR), Steve Novak (SO)

[AFM]

This is just nasty.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLK4t9Q_sxk[/youtube]

[verbal8]

Most similar to Nick Young: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Georgia

Pope rebounds as well overall as Oladipo -- much better on the defensive end. Pope's DReb% is better than Len's!

Interestingly Nick Young's rebounding was respectable in college. They both seem to have a lack of assists. Caldwell-Pope does get a decent number of steals, which shows some awareness that Nick Young never did.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Is it too soon to joke that one difference is women are safe around KCP?

[Dark Faze]

Calls to trade our pick seem odd. Since when did a team ever get decent value for trading anything past the 5th pick that they couldn't have simply gotten off the open market?

Even in instances of "terrible drafts" such as 2011, there were players that went late that would cost a premium on the open market today like Thompson, Leonard, Vucevic, and Faried, and shocker--3 of those 4 late picks had huge roles on playoff teams.

And you think we'd know better given how quickly and obviously Beal was able to help us as a rook.

[Dat2U]

Most similar to Nick Young: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Georgia

Pope rebounds as well overall as Oladipo -- much better on the defensive end. Pope's DReb% is better than Len's!

I should have been more specific. Stylistically, Nick & KCP are a lot alike. Offensively, they're games are very similar.

[Dat2U]

Is it too soon to joke that one difference is women are safe around KCP?

To be honest, that incident doesn't sound like Nick. He's the last athlete I'd think would actually do something like that.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I think it is more likely an extortion attempt.

[AFM]

I agree, Dat. This is how I picture NIck Young at the club.



Probably doing the dougie by himself in the corner smiling.

[WizarDynasty]

Steven Adams is the next Andrew Bogut without injury problems. Steven Adams is the only franchise caliber player in this draft. He will be twice as good as Andre Drummond and he compliments John Wall and Bradley Beal perfectly. He will be the best rebounder in the nba number one. He will be a top 3 defensive center number two. and he has a down to earth workhorse mentality and toughness to him that wins battles each night in all the intangibles areas. His jumper has improved much in only one season which is a reminder to his work and dedication. I definitely believe newman has him on our radar. He is far and way superior to Noel, Porter, Bennet, Olaipido, Olynk, and Dieng. The wizards need a young top echelon rebounding 7 foot defender with outstanding coordination and a high motor, who fights for position in the paint on every play.

Steven Adams is our Man. He looks a little lost on some of his post moves but if you look closely, the touch is and finger control arm coordination combined with foot coordination is there. Seraphin is a back up and he will never be the rebounder and shotblocker this team need. He does not have the innate rebouding skills and you never see him rebound in a crowd. Steven Adams is a powerful rebounder who snatches rebounds in crowds and fights for them like his life depends on it. There is absolutely no way Newman allows him to slip through our fingers at the 8th pick.

[pancakes3]

I'm not as thoroughly convinced as WizD but I do agree with him. Adams imo is a better prospect than a lot of other big men ranked ahead of him. Just a smidge below Len imo.

[Upper Decker]

Steven Adams is the next Andrew Bogut without injury problems. Steven Adams is the only franchise caliber player in this draft. He will be twice as good as Andre Drummond and he compliments John Wall and Bradley Beal perfectly. He will be the best rebounder in the nba number one. He will be a top 3 defensive center number two. and he has a down to earth workhorse mentality and toughness to him that wins battles each night in all the intangibles areas. His jumper has improved much in only one season which is a reminder to his work and dedication. I definitely believe newman has him on our radar. He is far and way superior to Noel, Porter, Bennet, Olaipido, Olynk, and Dieng. The wizards need a young top echelon rebounding 7 foot defender with outstanding coordination and a high motor, who fights for position in the paint on every play.

Steven Adams is our Man. He looks a little lost on some of his post moves but if you look closely, the touch is and finger control arm coordination combined with foot coordination is there. Seraphin is a back up and he will never be the rebounder and shotblocker this team need. He does not have the innate rebouding skills and you never see him rebound in a crowd. Steven Adams is a powerful rebounder who snatches rebounds in crowds and fights for them like his life depends on it. There is absolutely no way Newman allows him to slip through our fingers at the 8th pick.

This is without a doubt the best analysis we'll get all draft season. Try and beat that Jay Bilas!