Official Trade Thread - Part XXV

[fishercob]

Don't see the point for the Wizards. Ariza is the best player in that trade. Dieng might be good down the road, but I think the Wizards could get more for Ariza.

What do you think the Wizards can get for Ariza? I don't see any team giving up a 1st for a 1 year rental.

You know, this is a really good question. I'd be looking for a youngish big or guard. The difficulty is that many of the younger players that interest me are on teams that are rebuilding and aren't going to have much interest in giving up those youngsters for a half-year rental. Unfortunately, the Wizards can't make a trade with Grunfeld.

In my view, the Wizards ought to hang tight with Ariza and see if someone gets hurt or decides they need some SF depth closer to the trade deadline. Then try and extract filler plus a 1st for Ariza. If no one would pony up that much, they're better off just keeping him and either letting him walk after the season or perhaps re-signing him themselves.

I would like to understand this a little bit better because I have my doubts.

Won't Gortat have a cap hold that will cut significantly into the Wizards' cap room, such that they'd have to decide right away to either keep or renounce him?

And if they keep him at say., $10M per year, won't we have little enough cap space that we'd be just as well off if we used the MLE?

What I am saying/asking is that if the cap space from letting Ariza walk isn't going to be that meaningful anyway, wouldn't we be best off getting something for him now while we can -- a player that can help us next year or taking on a bad contract for a year in exchange for an asset?

Even if it's a guy who is overpaid, but still modestly useful -- Brandon Bass, JJ Barea, etc. Ariza/Seraphin for Frye/Dragic? Something like that.

[Nivek]

What do you think the Wizards can get for Ariza? I don't see any team giving up a 1st for a 1 year rental.

You know, this is a really good question. I'd be looking for a youngish big or guard. The difficulty is that many of the younger players that interest me are on teams that are rebuilding and aren't going to have much interest in giving up those youngsters for a half-year rental. Unfortunately, the Wizards can't make a trade with Grunfeld.

In my view, the Wizards ought to hang tight with Ariza and see if someone gets hurt or decides they need some SF depth closer to the trade deadline. Then try and extract filler plus a 1st for Ariza. If no one would pony up that much, they're better off just keeping him and either letting him walk after the season or perhaps re-signing him themselves.

I would like to understand this a little bit better because I have my doubts.

Won't Gortat have a cap hold that will cut significantly into the Wizards' cap room, such that they'd have to decide right away to either keep or renounce him?

And if they keep him at say., $10M per year, won't we have little enough cap space that we'd be just as well off if we used the MLE?

What I am saying/asking is that if the cap space from letting Ariza walk isn't going to be that meaningful anyway, wouldn't we be best off getting something for him now while we can -- a player that can help us next year or taking on a bad contract for a year in exchange for an asset?

Even if it's a guy who is overpaid, but still modestly useful -- Brandon Bass, JJ Barea, etc. Ariza/Seraphin for Frye/Dragic? Something like that.

In thinking about your post, it occurred to me why I'm sorta all over the map on this: I don't know what the front office's long-term goals are. The moves they've been making don't make much sense if the goal is to build a title contender, and they don't make much sense even for an "All-In For 8th" campaign. I know what Leonsis says, but I haven't found that the the team's actions match what he's articulated as his vision/goals for the team.

If The Goal is "reach the playoffs this season," then the best production they're likely to get from the Ariza roster spot is by keeping Ariza. If The Goal is something else , then it might make sense to swap Ariza for one of these other guys who might contribute something next year too.

To your question about cap holds -- the Wizards enter the offseason with $11.6 million cap holds for both Ariza and Gortat. If they renounce everyone and sign Gortat for $10 million (and the cap rises to $61.6 million), the Wizards would have about $6.2 million in cap room. The MLE is slated to be $5.3 million for 2014-15.

Which kinda leads me back to what I think is going to happen next offseason. Specifically, the Wizards re-sign Gortat AND Ariza, and then go shopping for additional frontcourt help using the MLE.

[verbal8]

You know, this is a really good question. I'd be looking for a youngish big or guard. The difficulty is that many of the younger players that interest me are on teams that are rebuilding and aren't going to have much interest in giving up those youngsters for a half-year rental. Unfortunately, the Wizards can't make a trade with Grunfeld.

In my view, the Wizards ought to hang tight with Ariza and see if someone gets hurt or decides they need some SF depth closer to the trade deadline. Then try and extract filler plus a 1st for Ariza. If no one would pony up that much, they're better off just keeping him and either letting him walk after the season or perhaps re-signing him themselves.

I would like to understand this a little bit better because I have my doubts.

Won't Gortat have a cap hold that will cut significantly into the Wizards' cap room, such that they'd have to decide right away to either keep or renounce him?

And if they keep him at say., $10M per year, won't we have little enough cap space that we'd be just as well off if we used the MLE?

What I am saying/asking is that if the cap space from letting Ariza walk isn't going to be that meaningful anyway, wouldn't we be best off getting something for him now while we can -- a player that can help us next year or taking on a bad contract for a year in exchange for an asset?

Even if it's a guy who is overpaid, but still modestly useful -- Brandon Bass, JJ Barea, etc. Ariza/Seraphin for Frye/Dragic? Something like that.

The overall gist of your post made me realize: I don't know what the front office's long-term goals are. The moves they've been making don't make much sense if the goal is to build a title contender, and they don't make much sense even for an "All-In For 8th" campaign. I know what Leonsis says, but I haven't found that the the team's actions match what he's articulated as his vision/goals for the team.

If The Goal is "reach the playoffs this season," then the best production they're likely to get from the Ariza roster spot is by keeping Ariza. If The Goal is something else , then it might make sense to swap Ariza for one of these other guys who might contribute something next year too.

To your question about cap holds -- the Wizards enter the offseason with $11.6 million cap holds for both Ariza and Gortat. If they renounce everyone and sign Gortat for $10 million (and the cap rises to $61.6 million), the Wizards would have about $6.2 million in cap room. The MLE is slated to be $5.3 million for 2014-15.

Which kinda leads me back to what I think is going to happen next offseason. Specifically, the Wizards re-sign Gortat AND Ariza, and then go shopping for additional frontcourt help using the MLE.

I think plan A should be to get Monroe on a Max deal. It probably is slightly overpaying, but my first choice would be to have Wall, Beal and Monroe together for their peaks, with Porter getting close to his - rather than having Ariza and Gortat declining as Beal and Porter are peaking.

The biggest factor in the Wizards success long term will be John Wall. If he can produce at a superstar level, the Wizards should be a good if not great team. If he doesn't improve much, it will be hard to acquire enough talent to make the team a competitor.

[LyricalRico]

Which kinda leads me back to what I think is going to happen next offseason. Specifically, the Wizards re-sign Gortat AND Ariza, and then go shopping for additional frontcourt help using the MLE.

Interesting. Keeping Ariza would make the Porter pick really curious, which is why I think Ariza's gone next summer and why then it makes so much sense to trade him now. But if keeping him is indeed the plan, then we'll have to sell low on Porter to fill other needs.

I do agree that they're going to keep Gortat (although hopefully for only 2 years), and so I'm fine with dealing Ariza for guys with a year or two left on their deals. For example:

Wizards trade: Ariza, Maynor, Singleton and 2nd
Wizards receive: Barea, Shved and Bass

Wolves trade: Barea, Shved, Cunningham and 2nd
Wolves receive: Ariza and Maynor

Celtics trade: Bass
Celtics receive: Singleton, Cunningham and multiple 2nds

Boston saves some money and gets some picks while tanking. Minny gets a quality wing and shave some longterm salary. Washington solves the backcourt depth problems and adds another option at PF.

Gortat/Vesely
Nene/Bass
Webster/Temple
Beal/Shved
Wall/Barea

We run a fast 3 guard lineup off the bench until Porter gets healthy, and now we have guys on the bench that can score. - See more at: posting.php?mode=quote&f=35&p=37545878#sthash.ukgNnTnw.dpuf

[nate33]

I'd really like to see Ariza gain a little weight at this point in his career, a la Robert Horry, so that he ultimately becomes a stretch four. That would solve a ton of lineup issues. Basically it's Nene and Gortat tag teaming at center with them playing side-by-side for small stretches. Wall and Beal handle most of the backcourt duties. And three long, athletic, versatile wings in Ariza, Webster and Porter just fill in all the holes. Find a competent backup PG and that's a good team.

[fishercob]

You know, this is a really good question. I'd be looking for a youngish big or guard. The difficulty is that many of the younger players that interest me are on teams that are rebuilding and aren't going to have much interest in giving up those youngsters for a half-year rental. Unfortunately, the Wizards can't make a trade with Grunfeld.

In my view, the Wizards ought to hang tight with Ariza and see if someone gets hurt or decides they need some SF depth closer to the trade deadline. Then try and extract filler plus a 1st for Ariza. If no one would pony up that much, they're better off just keeping him and either letting him walk after the season or perhaps re-signing him themselves.

I would like to understand this a little bit better because I have my doubts.

Won't Gortat have a cap hold that will cut significantly into the Wizards' cap room, such that they'd have to decide right away to either keep or renounce him?

And if they keep him at say., $10M per year, won't we have little enough cap space that we'd be just as well off if we used the MLE?

What I am saying/asking is that if the cap space from letting Ariza walk isn't going to be that meaningful anyway, wouldn't we be best off getting something for him now while we can -- a player that can help us next year or taking on a bad contract for a year in exchange for an asset?

Even if it's a guy who is overpaid, but still modestly useful -- Brandon Bass, JJ Barea, etc. Ariza/Seraphin for Frye/Dragic? Something like that.

In thinking about your post, it occurred to me why I'm sorta all over the map on this: I don't know what the front office's long-term goals are. The moves they've been making don't make much sense if the goal is to build a title contender, and they don't make much sense even for an "All-In For 8th" campaign. I know what Leonsis says, but I haven't found that the the team's actions match what he's articulated as his vision/goals for the team.

If The Goal is "reach the playoffs this season," then the best production they're likely to get from the Ariza roster spot is by keeping Ariza. If The Goal is something else , then it might make sense to swap Ariza for one of these other guys who might contribute something next year too.

To your question about cap holds -- the Wizards enter the offseason with $11.6 million cap holds for both Ariza and Gortat. If they renounce everyone and sign Gortat for $10 million (and the cap rises to $61.6 million), the Wizards would have about $6.2 million in cap room. The MLE is slated to be $5.3 million for 2014-15.

Which kinda leads me back to what I think is going to happen next offseason. Specifically, the Wizards re-sign Gortat AND Ariza, and then go shopping for additional frontcourt help using the MLE.

I think I understand the goal, the execution is just really bad. I think -- rightly or wrongly -- Ted did not the organization (culture, leaders, etc) was strong enough that it made sense to go shopping in free agency for the Ryan Anderson's of the world; we were't "ready."

So he wants us to make the playoffs so that Wall, Beal, and perhaps Porter can experience that crucible. He thinks we need to walk before running. Those guys are so young that he figures that he can replace the high priced vets with better, younger players while Wall, Beal and Porter are still in their primes. When Nene comes off the books after the 15-16 season, Wall, Beal and Porter will be 25, 23, and 23. At that point, hopefully with some playoffs experience under our belts -- and the associated enhanced rep around the league -- he wants to get aggressive with a transformative acquisition, be it Durant, Roy Hibbert, Kevin Love, or some trade target. At that point we have a substantial window of contention.

Now, I disagree with some of the underlying premises and well as seveal of the decisions Ernie has made to execute this vision. But I also don't think the roadmap is without its merits. And given that we're as far down the rabbit hole as we are, I'd much prefer trading Ariza for some help on the floor or even a marginal asset than I would letting him walk for nothing.

The East's suckitude provides some opportunity to get playoff experience when we're really not good. That could come in handy once we've landed That Guy (hell, it could come in handy to helping to land him).

So, trade Ariza.

The end.

[fishercob]

I'd really like to see Ariza gain a little weight at this point in his career, a la Robert Horry, so that he ultimately becomes a stretch four. That would solve a ton of lineup issues. Basically it's Nene and Gortat tag teaming at center with them playing side-by-side for small stretches. Wall and Beal handle most of the backcourt duties. And three long, athletic, versatile wings in Ariza, Webster and Porter just fill in all the holes. Find a competent backup PG and that's a good team.

I'd like that too, but I don't see it happening at this point.

[Ruzious]

I'd really like to see Ariza gain a little weight at this point in his career, a la Robert Horry, so that he ultimately becomes a stretch four. That would solve a ton of lineup issues. Basically it's Nene and Gortat tag teaming at center with them playing side-by-side for small stretches. Wall and Beal handle most of the backcourt duties. And three long, athletic, versatile wings in Ariza, Webster and Porter just fill in all the holes. Find a competent backup PG and that's a good team.

I'd like that too, but I don't see it happening at this point.

I agree. I just don't see him having the frame or inclination to hold up for more than a few minutes a game at PF. Yes, he'll have a quickness advantage on the offensive end, but I don't know that he has the skills to take advantage of that on a consistent basis. Ariza will flash nice ball skills on occasion, but he doesn't do it with consistency.

[payitforward]

^ Agreed, I think Patterson has more potential to turn into a consistently productive player. We'd probably have to add at least a bit of sweetener, or make the Booker-for-Patterson swap part of a larger deal.

Where does this "potential" come from? On the season, Booker is playing way better than Patterson -- more rebounds (and *lots* more offensive rebounds) and a much higher TS%.

I don't understand why people constantly downgrade Booker. Not saying he is a great player -- he's not. But he's proven at a level that Patterson has yet to reach. They were very close in numbers as rookies, but Patterson has declined. And the one thing we need the most, rebounding, is a weakness in Patterson's game.

Last season - an entire season - Patterson was easily the more efficient and productive player of the 2, and he showed he has 3 point range. This season - I don't know what the problem is with Patterson, but we're talking 12 or so games vs an entire season. Booker is nothing more than a decent reserve - when he is healthy - which is something he can't be counted on to be.

Really? I disagree.

With the Rockets, he averaged 7.3 boards per 40 minutes; w/ the Kings 8.3 -- Booker averaged 10.8. That's easily (to use your word) Booker the more productive player, right? (Note, that's a power forward grabbing under 8 boards per 40 minutes. You sure that's a guy you want to acquire??)

Offensive boards (more important): 2.9/2.4 Patterson -- 4.4 for Booker -- again Booker is easily more productive.

Steals: Patterson .6/.9 -- 1.4 for Booker.

Patterson is the better scorer (though he was actually better w the Rockets than after he went to the Kings), but he's not all that good, and it's not enough to make up the difference.

Now... Trevor has an injury history, and that's something to consider. But on the court he's more productive than Patterson. Your preference for Patterson is an example of something that's been proven over and over: guys drafted high will be regarded as "he must be good" and get chances over and over. You are being influenced by where he was drafted not by what he has done.

[fishercob]

Question for my nerds:

If we do keep Ariza so that we can let him walk in FA, can we then use the cap room to front load Gortat's new contract via a signing bonus like OKC did with Collison?

What would/could the numbers on something like that look like? Is it a worthwhile use of cap space to take a one-year bath on Gortat so we can have him on the cheap for another 2 or 3?

That might be a more attractive scenario than trading for a marginal player.

[payitforward]

What about this deal:

Wiz trade Ariza+Seraphin for Perkins+PJ3+Future Dallas Pick?

Wiz agree to take on Perkins' awful deal, for PJ3 (who is showing signs as an athletic stretch PF) and that valuable future dallas pick. Thunder get Ariza as a much needed wing defender who hits 3s, and Seraphin (who they were rumored to like during the 2010 draft).

Perkins, while awful, will at least play physical.

Whatever would make you think that Presti would do this? Even to dump Perkins $9m next year? Presti *likes* ways to bring more young talent onto his roster every year. He isn't going to take a rental and a throwaway in return for a young prospect and the chance to pick another one.

[verbal8]

Question for my nerds:

If we do keep Ariza so that we can let him walk in FA, can we then use the cap room to front load Gortat's new contract via a signing bonus like OKC did with Collison?

What would/could the numbers on something like that look like? Is it a worthwhile use of cap space to take a one-year bath on Gortat so we can have him on the cheap for another 2 or 3?

I don't think they can. I think Collison's deal was a renegotiation followed by an under market extension.

[fishercob]

Question for my nerds:

If we do keep Ariza so that we can let him walk in FA, can we then use the cap room to front load Gortat's new contract via a signing bonus like OKC did with Collison?

What would/could the numbers on something like that look like? Is it a worthwhile use of cap space to take a one-year bath on Gortat so we can have him on the cheap for another 2 or 3?

I don't think they can. I think Collison's deal was a renegotiation followed by an under market extension.

Reading the CBA FAQ, I don't think they can either but not quite for the reasons you say.

I think the problem is that to extend Gortat we would have to do it before the start of free agency this summer, and until Ariza and co are off the books we will not have the cap room to absorb the signing bonus.

[FAH1223]

I'd trade Nene before he gets injured or starts complaining about minutes again.

[LyricalRico]

Question for my nerds:

If we do keep Ariza so that we can let him walk in FA, can we then use the cap room to front load Gortat's new contract via a signing bonus like OKC did with Collison?

What would/could the numbers on something like that look like? Is it a worthwhile use of cap space to take a one-year bath on Gortat so we can have him on the cheap for another 2 or 3?

I don't think they can. I think Collison's deal was a renegotiation followed by an under market extension.

Reading the CBA FAQ, I don't think they can either but not quite for the reasons you say.

I think the problem is that to extend Gortat we would have to do it before the start of free agency this summer, and until Ariza and co are off the books we will not have the cap room to absorb the signing bonus.

Considering that it's an extension and his Bird Rights have transferred to the Wizards, would they even need true cap space to offer Gortat any type of contract? I wouldn't think so, unless there's something about signing bonuses that I'm missing.

[Nivek]

Considering that it's an extension and his Bird Rights have transferred to the Wizards, would they even need true cap space to offer Gortat any type of contract? I wouldn't think so, unless there's something about signing bonuses that I'm missing.

If they want to do what fish is describing -- using a signing bonus to reduce future cap impact -- it will require cap space.

[nate33]

Considering that it's an extension and his Bird Rights have transferred to the Wizards, would they even need true cap space to offer Gortat any type of contract? I wouldn't think so, unless there's something about signing bonuses that I'm missing.

If they want to do what fish is describing -- using a signing bonus to reduce future cap impact -- it will require cap space.

Yeah. You can't negotiate Nick Collison contracts on Bird Rights alone. You need cap room.

If we renounced Ariza (and Booker, Seraphin, Vesely and Singleton), we would have a cap figure of about $46M (counting our 1st round pick and a handful of minimum salaries to meet our roster threshold). Assuming a $62M cap, that's $16M in cap room. If Gortat was "worth" a 4-year, $40M contract, we could frontload it to pay him $16M in Year 1, and $8M in each year thereafter. That doesn't really seem worth it to me. I'd rather sign him to a conventional deal and retain Bird Rights on Ariza plus the MLE.

[fishercob]

Considering that it's an extension and his Bird Rights have transferred to the Wizards, would they even need true cap space to offer Gortat any type of contract? I wouldn't think so, unless there's something about signing bonuses that I'm missing.

If they want to do what fish is describing -- using a signing bonus to reduce future cap impact -- it will require cap space.

Yeah. You can't negotiate Nick Collison contracts on Bird Rights alone. You need cap room.

If we renounced Ariza (and Booker, Seraphin, Vesely and Singleton), we would have a cap figure of about $46M (counting our 1st round pick and a handful of minimum salaries to meet our roster threshold). Assuming a $62M cap, that's $16M in cap room. If Gortat was "worth" a 4-year, $40M contract, we could frontload it to pay him $16M in Year 1, and $8M in each year thereafter. That doesn't really seem worth it to me. I'd rather sign him to a conventional deal and retain Bird Rights on Ariza plus the MLE.

I'm with you on Gortat's contract structure, but what's the benefit of keeping Ariza's bird rights -- assuming Porter shows signs of being a good player?

[verbal8]

Considering that it's an extension and his Bird Rights have transferred to the Wizards, would they even need true cap space to offer Gortat any type of contract? I wouldn't think so, unless there's something about signing bonuses that I'm missing.

If they want to do what fish is describing -- using a signing bonus to reduce future cap impact -- it will require cap space.

To do what the Thunder did with Collison, the team needs to have the player under contract and have the cap space to increase their salary. It looks like the loophole was closed a bit since the salary can only decrease to 60% of the last year of the contract. The Thunder paid Collison $18 million, but only take a hit for about $3 million/year.

Under the current rules they would be able to only raise his final year 1 million and give have his extension fit the minimum. They could have moved the signing bonus into the last year, so that would shave 15% off the cap hit of the years of the extension.

If a team under the cap acquired Gortat, they could have used a similar principle and used a re-negotiation and extension to keep him cheaply in the future. If they can fit 16 million under the cap, they could give him a 3 year deal with cap hits of about 7 million/year. Which would net Gortat about $30 million.

[verbal8]

Considering that it's an extension and his Bird Rights have transferred to the Wizards, would they even need true cap space to offer Gortat any type of contract? I wouldn't think so, unless there's something about signing bonuses that I'm missing.

If they want to do what fish is describing -- using a signing bonus to reduce future cap impact -- it will require cap space.

Yeah. You can't negotiate Nick Collison contracts on Bird Rights alone. You need cap room.

If we renounced Ariza (and Booker, Seraphin, Vesely and Singleton), we would have a cap figure of about $46M (counting our 1st round pick and a handful of minimum salaries to meet our roster threshold). Assuming a $62M cap, that's $16M in cap room. If Gortat was "worth" a 4-year, $40M contract, we could frontload it to pay him $16M in Year 1, and $8M in each year thereafter. That doesn't really seem worth it to me. I'd rather sign him to a conventional deal and retain Bird Rights on Ariza plus the MLE.

You can't do a 50% decrease in a standard contract. For a standard free agent, the max is 4.5%/year with bird rights it is 7.5%.