2021 Draft Thread - Part II
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
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Gig18
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
Sorry. Last one sounded snarky.
Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
- SUPERBALLMAN
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
Gig18 wrote:Sorry. Last one sounded snarky.
It was snarky. It's ok. We all know it's Doc's fault.
"I love it when a plan comes together" - Colonel John "Hannibal" Smith
Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
- SUPERBALLMAN
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
So....
NBA DRAFT ROOM has 7, 14, 15 mocked with Moody, Mitchell, and Keon Johnson.
Like the defensive potential!
NBA DRAFT ROOM on Keon Johnson ...
In some ways he plays like a young Ron Artest, being physical in the paint, rebounding the heck out the ball and also initiating the offense as a point forward. Another player Johnson reminds me of is Jaylen Brown, with his physical driving style and high end athleticism. It’s too early to say if he’ll be as good as those two players but the tools are there.
On the defensive end is where Johnson really stands out. He’s a pesky, hard-nosed defender who gives great effort and really locks in on his man. He plays passing lanes well and has very quick hands. At 6-5 he’s got enough size to guard SFs and his quick feet and awesome lateral agility allow him to stay in-front of just about any player out there.
And needless to say they have Mitchell described as "an elite defender, probably the best on ball defender in the draft."
NBA DRAFT ROOM has 7, 14, 15 mocked with Moody, Mitchell, and Keon Johnson.
Like the defensive potential!
NBA DRAFT ROOM on Keon Johnson ...
In some ways he plays like a young Ron Artest, being physical in the paint, rebounding the heck out the ball and also initiating the offense as a point forward. Another player Johnson reminds me of is Jaylen Brown, with his physical driving style and high end athleticism. It’s too early to say if he’ll be as good as those two players but the tools are there.
On the defensive end is where Johnson really stands out. He’s a pesky, hard-nosed defender who gives great effort and really locks in on his man. He plays passing lanes well and has very quick hands. At 6-5 he’s got enough size to guard SFs and his quick feet and awesome lateral agility allow him to stay in-front of just about any player out there.
And needless to say they have Mitchell described as "an elite defender, probably the best on ball defender in the draft."
"I love it when a plan comes together" - Colonel John "Hannibal" Smith
Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
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Ruzious
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
payitforward wrote:I do not understand why people can't simply look at past drafts & come away understanding that it's simply not the case that the best players are taken near the top. Most of the best players are taken a fair amount lower.
The best players taken in 2017 seem to have been (in no particular order) Jayson Tatum, DeAaron Fox, John Collins, Bam Adebayo, Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Derrick White, Josh Hart, Thomas Bryant, Dillon Brooks & Monte Morris.
2 guys taken in the top 5. 3 guys taken in the teens. 4 guys taken in the final 10 picks of R1, & 3 taken in R2.
2016 was a little more top-loaded -- but 2015, 2014 & 2013 were all way LESS top-loaded. & 2012 had 3 outstanding players & 2 ok players out of the top 10. The rest of R1 wasn't anywhere near as good as R2 that year -- in fact, R2 produced 9 good players of whom 8 are still in the league.
The year before that the 2 best players went #15 & #30. 2 of the other standouts went #19 & #60.
So... I don't get it: what makes everyone so sure it'll be different this year? Or any year in the future?
Of course there's always going to be some players who turn out a lot better than players picked ahead of them. Everyone... which includes... everyone... understands that. The problem is you don't know who they are in advance. That's why teams put so much effort into scouting. The 1 size fits all approach you want to use won't work this year, and it's not because I say so (though actually, that should be good enough
"A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools." - Douglas Adams
Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
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Ruzious
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
gambitx777 wrote:I don't know if they are gonna get taken 5-10Ruzious wrote:gambitx777 wrote:I don't believe this is so much a 3 - 5 player draft as people say it is.
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Who do you like at 5 through 10?
But the next 5 best after suggs I'd say is Barnes, Wagner, moody, Kispert and springer. Imo
I'll add some * here sengun might be a dino but if he can put a shot together he could be big time, if guraba can play O he might be the next Marion and not MKG.
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Those are reasonable choices for 5-10. Problem is they are likely regarded (and probably correctly so - for the time being) as being miles and miles and miles away from the top 4.
"A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools." - Douglas Adams
Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
- Kanyewest
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
Ruzious wrote:payitforward wrote:I do not understand why people can't simply look at past drafts & come away understanding that it's simply not the case that the best players are taken near the top. Most of the best players are taken a fair amount lower.
The best players taken in 2017 seem to have been (in no particular order) Jayson Tatum, DeAaron Fox, John Collins, Bam Adebayo, Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Derrick White, Josh Hart, Thomas Bryant, Dillon Brooks & Monte Morris.
2 guys taken in the top 5. 3 guys taken in the teens. 4 guys taken in the final 10 picks of R1, & 3 taken in R2.
2016 was a little more top-loaded -- but 2015, 2014 & 2013 were all way LESS top-loaded. & 2012 had 3 outstanding players & 2 ok players out of the top 10. The rest of R1 wasn't anywhere near as good as R2 that year -- in fact, R2 produced 9 good players of whom 8 are still in the league.
The year before that the 2 best players went #15 & #30. 2 of the other standouts went #19 & #60.
So... I don't get it: what makes everyone so sure it'll be different this year? Or any year in the future?
Of course there's always going to be some players who turn out a lot better than players picked ahead of them. Everyone... which includes... everyone... understands that. The problem is you don't know who they are in advance. That's why teams put so much effort into scouting. The 1 size fits all approach you want to use won't work this year, and it's not because I say so (though actually, that should be good enough). The fact is - if you asked any GM if they thought the 7th and 14th pick would get you the 3rd pick, they'd laugh at you in your face - because they've done enough homework and scouting to understand that the 4 top prospects are several tiers higher in CURRENT VALUE than the rest.
It seems like the #3 does better than 7+14 from a quick glance.
Number 3
2020- LiMelo Ball - Hornets
2019 RJ Barrett, Duke – New York Knicks
2018 Luka Doncic, Slovenia – Dallas Mavericks
2017 Jayson Tatum, Duke – Boston Celtics
2016 Jaylen Brown, California – Boston Celtics
2015 Jahlil Okafor, Duke – Philadelphia 76ers
2014 Joel Embiid, Kansas – Philadelphia 76ers
2013 Otto Porter, Georgetown – Washington Wizards
2012 Bradley Beal, Florida – Washington Wizards
2011 Enes Kanter, Kentucky – Utah Jazz
2010 Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech – New Jersey Nets
2009 James Harden, Arizona State – Oklahoma City Thunder
2008 O.J. Mayo, USC – Minnesota Timberwolves
2007 Al Horford, Florida – Atlanta Hawks
2006 Adam Morrison, Gonzaga – Charlotte Bobcats
2005 Deron Williams, Illinois – Utah Jazz
2004 Ben Gordon, Connecticut – Chicago Bulls
2003 Carmelo Anthony, Syracuse – Denver Nuggets
2002 Mike Dunleavy, Duke – Golden State Warriors
2001 Pau Gasol, Spain – Atlanta Hawks
Number 7 Pick
2020 - Killian Hayes
2019 Coby White, North Carolina – Chicago Bulls
2018 Wendell Carter Jr., Duke – Chicago Bulls
2017 Lauri Markkanen, Arizona – Minnesota Timberwolves
2016 Jamal Murray, Kentucky – Denver Nuggets
2015 Emmanuel Mudiay, Guangdong Tigers – Denver Nuggets
2014 Julius Randle, Kentucky – Los Angeles Lakers
2013 Ben McLemore, Kansas – Sacramento Kings
2012 Harrison Barnes, North Carolina – Golden State Warriors
2011 Bismack Biyombo, Congo – Sacramento Kings
2010 Greg Monroe, Georgetown – Detroit Pistons
2009 Stephen Curry, Davidson – Golden State Warriors
2008 Eric Gordon, Indiana – L.A. Clippers
2007 Corey Brewer, Florida – Minnesota Timberwolves
2006 Randy Foye, Villanova – Boston Celtics
2005 Charlie Villanueva, Connecticut – Toronto Raptors
2004 Luol Deng, Duke – Phoenix Suns
2003 Kirk Hinrich, Kansas – Chicago Bulls
2002 Nene Hilario, Brazil – New York
2001 Eddie Griffin, Seton Hall – New Jersey
2020- Aaron Nesmith
2019 Romeo Langford, Indiana – Boston Celtics
2018 Michael Porter, University of Missouri – Denver Nuggets
2017 Bam Adebayo, Kentucky – Miami HEAT
2016 Denzel Valentine, Michigan State – Chicago Bulls
2015 Cameron Payne, Murray State – Oklahoma City Thunder
2014 TJ Warren, NC State – Phoenix Suns
2013 Shabazz Muhammad, UCLA – Utah Jazz
2012 John Henson, UNC – Milwaukee Bucks
2011 Marcus Morris, Kansas – Houston Rockets
2010 Patrick Patterson, Kentucky – Houston Rockets
2009 Earl Clark, Louisville – Phoenix Suns
2008 Anthony Randolph, LSU – Golden State Warriors
2007 Al Thornton, Florida State – L.A. Clippers
2006 Ronnie Brewer, Arkansas – Utah Jazz
2005 Rashad McCants, North Carolina – Minnesota Timberwolves
2004 Kris Humphries, Minnesota – Utah Jazz
2003 Luke Ridnour, Oregon – Seattle Supersonics
2002 Fred Jones, Oregon – Indiana Pacers
2001 Troy Murphy, Notre Dame – Golden State Warriors
Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
I wonder if we could get #16 and #18 for #7 (should the GS trade happen).
We'd own #14, #15, #16, #18.
Whew.
Could we possibly flip Wiseman to the Rockets for #23, #24, and a future 2nd round pick? Lol
Because I really like the potential of the Gafford / Bryant combo. Whew...
We'd own #14, #15, #16, #18.
Whew.
Could we possibly flip Wiseman to the Rockets for #23, #24, and a future 2nd round pick? Lol
Because I really like the potential of the Gafford / Bryant combo. Whew...
Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
Dark Faze wrote:I wonder if we could get #16 and #18 for #7 (should the GS trade happen).
We'd own #14, #15, #16, #18.
Whew.
Could we possibly flip Wiseman to the Rockets for #23, #24, and a future 2nd round pick? Lol
Because I really like the potential of the Gafford / Bryant combo. Whew...
I do like the 16 + 18 for 7 !
"I love it when a plan comes together" - Colonel John "Hannibal" Smith
Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
Funny to think how Jared Jeffries would be regarded a high demand prospect if he came out now, 6-11 SF can run the point forward and guard 5 positions!!
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
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payitforward
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
Kanyewest wrote:Ruzious wrote:payitforward wrote:I do not understand why people can't simply look at past drafts & come away understanding that it's simply not the case that the best players are taken near the top. Most of the best players are taken a fair amount lower.
The best players taken in 2017 seem to have been (in no particular order) Jayson Tatum, DeAaron Fox, John Collins, Bam Adebayo, Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Derrick White, Josh Hart, Thomas Bryant, Dillon Brooks & Monte Morris.
2 guys taken in the top 5. 3 guys taken in the teens. 4 guys taken in the final 10 picks of R1, & 3 taken in R2.
2016 was a little more top-loaded -- but 2015, 2014 & 2013 were all way LESS top-loaded. & 2012 had 3 outstanding players & 2 ok players out of the top 10. The rest of R1 wasn't anywhere near as good as R2 that year -- in fact, R2 produced 9 good players of whom 8 are still in the league.
The year before that the 2 best players went #15 & #30. 2 of the other standouts went #19 & #60.
So... I don't get it: what makes everyone so sure it'll be different this year? Or any year in the future?
Of course there's always going to be some players who turn out a lot better than players picked ahead of them. Everyone... which includes... everyone... understands that. The problem is you don't know who they are in advance. That's why teams put so much effort into scouting. The 1 size fits all approach you want to use won't work this year, and it's not because I say so (though actually, that should be good enough). The fact is - if you asked any GM if they thought the 7th and 14th pick would get you the 3rd pick, they'd laugh at you in your face - because they've done enough homework and scouting to understand that the 4 top prospects are several tiers higher in CURRENT VALUE than the rest.
It seems like the #3 does better than 7+14 from a quick glance.
Number 3
2020- LiMelo Ball - Hornets
2019 RJ Barrett, Duke – New York Knicks
2018 Luka Doncic, Slovenia – Dallas Mavericks
2017 Jayson Tatum, Duke – Boston Celtics
2016 Jaylen Brown, California – Boston Celtics
2015 Jahlil Okafor, Duke – Philadelphia 76ers
2014 Joel Embiid, Kansas – Philadelphia 76ers
2013 Otto Porter, Georgetown – Washington Wizards
2012 Bradley Beal, Florida – Washington Wizards
2011 Enes Kanter, Kentucky – Utah Jazz
2010 Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech – New Jersey Nets
2009 James Harden, Arizona State – Oklahoma City Thunder
2008 O.J. Mayo, USC – Minnesota Timberwolves
2007 Al Horford, Florida – Atlanta Hawks
2006 Adam Morrison, Gonzaga – Charlotte Bobcats
2005 Deron Williams, Illinois – Utah Jazz
2004 Ben Gordon, Connecticut – Chicago Bulls
2003 Carmelo Anthony, Syracuse – Denver Nuggets
2002 Mike Dunleavy, Duke – Golden State Warriors
2001 Pau Gasol, Spain – Atlanta Hawks
Number 7 Pick
2020 - Killian Hayes
2019 Coby White, North Carolina – Chicago Bulls
2018 Wendell Carter Jr., Duke – Chicago Bulls
2017 Lauri Markkanen, Arizona – Minnesota Timberwolves
2016 Jamal Murray, Kentucky – Denver Nuggets
2015 Emmanuel Mudiay, Guangdong Tigers – Denver Nuggets
2014 Julius Randle, Kentucky – Los Angeles Lakers
2013 Ben McLemore, Kansas – Sacramento Kings
2012 Harrison Barnes, North Carolina – Golden State Warriors
2011 Bismack Biyombo, Congo – Sacramento Kings
2010 Greg Monroe, Georgetown – Detroit Pistons
2009 Stephen Curry, Davidson – Golden State Warriors
2008 Eric Gordon, Indiana – L.A. Clippers
2007 Corey Brewer, Florida – Minnesota Timberwolves
2006 Randy Foye, Villanova – Boston Celtics
2005 Charlie Villanueva, Connecticut – Toronto Raptors
2004 Luol Deng, Duke – Phoenix Suns
2003 Kirk Hinrich, Kansas – Chicago Bulls
2002 Nene Hilario, Brazil – New York
2001 Eddie Griffin, Seton Hall – New Jersey
2020- Aaron Nesmith
2019 Romeo Langford, Indiana – Boston Celtics
2018 Michael Porter, University of Missouri – Denver Nuggets
2017 Bam Adebayo, Kentucky – Miami HEAT
2016 Denzel Valentine, Michigan State – Chicago Bulls
2015 Cameron Payne, Murray State – Oklahoma City Thunder
2014 TJ Warren, NC State – Phoenix Suns
2013 Shabazz Muhammad, UCLA – Utah Jazz
2012 John Henson, UNC – Milwaukee Bucks
2011 Marcus Morris, Kansas – Houston Rockets
2010 Patrick Patterson, Kentucky – Houston Rockets
2009 Earl Clark, Louisville – Phoenix Suns
2008 Anthony Randolph, LSU – Golden State Warriors
2007 Al Thornton, Florida State – L.A. Clippers
2006 Ronnie Brewer, Arkansas – Utah Jazz
2005 Rashad McCants, North Carolina – Minnesota Timberwolves
2004 Kris Humphries, Minnesota – Utah Jazz
2003 Luke Ridnour, Oregon – Seattle Supersonics
2002 Fred Jones, Oregon – Indiana Pacers
2001 Troy Murphy, Notre Dame – Golden State Warriors
What does any of this have to do with the point I made?
Find me a draft in which 3 of the 6 best players taken in the draft went in picks 1-6.
Remember when we made the stupid trade just before the '09 draft -- trading the #5 pick, which we could have used to take Steph, to Minny in return for Mike Miller & Randy Foye?
Who did Minny take with that #5 pick, Kanye? Did they take Steph? Why no, they didn't, did they? Isn't it shocking? They took Ricky Rubio.
Of course, they also had the next pick, the #6 pick. They must have taken Steph with that one, right? Nah, they didn't. Instead they took Jonny Flynn. Do you know who Jonny Flynn is, Kanye? Of course not! Why would you?
There's really nothing to debate here. The relationship between how good a player is & where he was taken in the draft is... more or less non-existant -- at least after the 3d pick in the draft. Zilch. Not there. That's why, that same year, such terrific players as Terrence Williams, Brandon Jennings, Tylor Hansborough, Earl Clark & Austin Daye were picked before anyone thought about picking Jrue Holiday. Not to mention the 8 guys who had to be picked after Holiday before someone thought to take Taj Gibson.
Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
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Ruzious
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
Pif, many years ago - in the 1984 draft, the Clippers had the 8th & 14th picks. If you were one of the Jerry's - choosing for Chicago, you would have likely traded the 3rd pick - used on Michael Jordan - for Lancaster Gordon and Michael Cage - and forever changed history. Btw, the top 3 players from that draft were Olajuwon (1st), Jordan (3rd), and Barkley (5th). The other future HOFER in that draft was Stockton (16). Btw (2), that's the only draft I looked at.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
- Kanyewest
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
payitforward wrote:Kanyewest wrote:Ruzious wrote:Of course there's always going to be some players who turn out a lot better than players picked ahead of them. Everyone... which includes... everyone... understands that. The problem is you don't know who they are in advance. That's why teams put so much effort into scouting. The 1 size fits all approach you want to use won't work this year, and it's not because I say so (though actually, that should be good enough). The fact is - if you asked any GM if they thought the 7th and 14th pick would get you the 3rd pick, they'd laugh at you in your face - because they've done enough homework and scouting to understand that the 4 top prospects are several tiers higher in CURRENT VALUE than the rest.
It seems like the #3 does better than 7+14 from a quick glance.
Number 3
2020- LiMelo Ball - Hornets
2019 RJ Barrett, Duke – New York Knicks
2018 Luka Doncic, Slovenia – Dallas Mavericks
2017 Jayson Tatum, Duke – Boston Celtics
2016 Jaylen Brown, California – Boston Celtics
2015 Jahlil Okafor, Duke – Philadelphia 76ers
2014 Joel Embiid, Kansas – Philadelphia 76ers
2013 Otto Porter, Georgetown – Washington Wizards
2012 Bradley Beal, Florida – Washington Wizards
2011 Enes Kanter, Kentucky – Utah Jazz
2010 Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech – New Jersey Nets
2009 James Harden, Arizona State – Oklahoma City Thunder
2008 O.J. Mayo, USC – Minnesota Timberwolves
2007 Al Horford, Florida – Atlanta Hawks
2006 Adam Morrison, Gonzaga – Charlotte Bobcats
2005 Deron Williams, Illinois – Utah Jazz
2004 Ben Gordon, Connecticut – Chicago Bulls
2003 Carmelo Anthony, Syracuse – Denver Nuggets
2002 Mike Dunleavy, Duke – Golden State Warriors
2001 Pau Gasol, Spain – Atlanta Hawks
Number 7 Pick
2020 - Killian Hayes
2019 Coby White, North Carolina – Chicago Bulls
2018 Wendell Carter Jr., Duke – Chicago Bulls
2017 Lauri Markkanen, Arizona – Minnesota Timberwolves
2016 Jamal Murray, Kentucky – Denver Nuggets
2015 Emmanuel Mudiay, Guangdong Tigers – Denver Nuggets
2014 Julius Randle, Kentucky – Los Angeles Lakers
2013 Ben McLemore, Kansas – Sacramento Kings
2012 Harrison Barnes, North Carolina – Golden State Warriors
2011 Bismack Biyombo, Congo – Sacramento Kings
2010 Greg Monroe, Georgetown – Detroit Pistons
2009 Stephen Curry, Davidson – Golden State Warriors
2008 Eric Gordon, Indiana – L.A. Clippers
2007 Corey Brewer, Florida – Minnesota Timberwolves
2006 Randy Foye, Villanova – Boston Celtics
2005 Charlie Villanueva, Connecticut – Toronto Raptors
2004 Luol Deng, Duke – Phoenix Suns
2003 Kirk Hinrich, Kansas – Chicago Bulls
2002 Nene Hilario, Brazil – New York
2001 Eddie Griffin, Seton Hall – New Jersey
2020- Aaron Nesmith
2019 Romeo Langford, Indiana – Boston Celtics
2018 Michael Porter, University of Missouri – Denver Nuggets
2017 Bam Adebayo, Kentucky – Miami HEAT
2016 Denzel Valentine, Michigan State – Chicago Bulls
2015 Cameron Payne, Murray State – Oklahoma City Thunder
2014 TJ Warren, NC State – Phoenix Suns
2013 Shabazz Muhammad, UCLA – Utah Jazz
2012 John Henson, UNC – Milwaukee Bucks
2011 Marcus Morris, Kansas – Houston Rockets
2010 Patrick Patterson, Kentucky – Houston Rockets
2009 Earl Clark, Louisville – Phoenix Suns
2008 Anthony Randolph, LSU – Golden State Warriors
2007 Al Thornton, Florida State – L.A. Clippers
2006 Ronnie Brewer, Arkansas – Utah Jazz
2005 Rashad McCants, North Carolina – Minnesota Timberwolves
2004 Kris Humphries, Minnesota – Utah Jazz
2003 Luke Ridnour, Oregon – Seattle Supersonics
2002 Fred Jones, Oregon – Indiana Pacers
2001 Troy Murphy, Notre Dame – Golden State Warriors
What does any of this have to do with the point I made?
Find me a draft in which 3 of the 6 best players taken in the draft went in picks 1-6.
Remember when we made the stupid trade just before the '09 draft -- trading the #5 pick, which we could have used to take Steph, to Minny in return for Mike Miller & Randy Foye?
Who did Minny take with that #5 pick, Kanye? Did they take Steph? Why no, they didn't, did they? Isn't it shocking? They took Ricky Rubio.
Of course, they also had the next pick, the #6 pick. They must have taken Steph with that one, right? Nah, they didn't. Instead they took Jonny Flynn. Do you know who Jonny Flynn is, Kanye? Of course not! Why would you?
There's really nothing to debate here. The relationship between how good a player is & where he was taken in the draft is... more or less non-existant -- at least after the 3d pick in the draft. Zilch. Not there. That's why, that same year, such terrific players as Terrence Williams, Brandon Jennings, Tylor Hansborough, Earl Clark & Austin Daye were picked before anyone thought about picking Jrue Holiday. Not to mention the 8 guys who had to be picked after Holiday before someone thought to take Taj Gibson.
I believe it was Ruz who made the point.
Yup, the best player is often picked where it is picked because of the imperfect science of the draft.
Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
- Illuminaire
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
payitforward wrote:[
Find me a draft in which 3 of the 6 best players taken in the draft went in picks 1-6.
2018 - Ayton (1), Doncic (3), and Trae (5).
2016 - Simmons (1), Ingram (2), Brown (3) There is an argument for Siakam but he's the oldest player by 4 years and probably not as good as those three.
Just a quick search. Now, you're going to be correct that in most years, some of the best players are found outside of the top 6. However, this obscures what I would consider to be a more important truth: You have a better chance of getting a star in the top 6.
If only 2 of every 6 players taken at the top of the draft turn out to be stars, that's a 33% chance to land a game changer. You don't get those kinds of odds in the 10s. In the two drafts listed above, here were other clear 'star' players by draft position.
7-10: Jamal Murray (12.5% chance)
11-20: Michael Porter Jr (5% chance)
21-30: Siakam (5% chance)
Some drafts are deeper than others. I'm sure there are other ones where more stars are found later in the draft. I'm confident the overall picture supports the main contention here, though - you have a much, MUCH better chance to land a game changing star at the top of the draft. Not a guarantee - just a chance - but a hugely better one. So much so that even having 3-4 swings late in the draft is not as useful as having a single swing at the very beginning.
Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
SUPERBALLMAN wrote:Gig18 wrote:Sorry. Last one sounded snarky.
It was snarky. It's ok. We all know it's Doc's fault.
I approve this message.
Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
- gambitx777
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
Yeah but the other two in 2016 were bender and dunIlluminaire wrote:payitforward wrote:[
Find me a draft in which 3 of the 6 best players taken in the draft went in picks 1-6.
2018 - Ayton (1), Doncic (3), and Trae (5).
2016 - Simmons (1), Ingram (2), Brown (3) There is an argument for Siakam but he's the oldest player by 4 years and probably not as good as those three.
Just a quick search. Now, you're going to be correct that in most years, some of the best players are found outside of the top 6. However, this obscures what I would consider to be a more important truth: You have a better chance of getting a star in the top 6.
If only 2 of every 6 players taken at the top of the draft turn out to be stars, that's a 33% chance to land a game changer. You don't get those kinds of odds in the 10s. In the two drafts listed above, here were other clear 'star' players by draft position.
7-10: Jamal Murray (12.5% chance)
11-20: Michael Porter Jr (5% chance)
21-30: Siakam (5% chance)
Some drafts are deeper than others. I'm sure there are other ones where more stars are found later in the draft. I'm confident the overall picture supports the main contention here, though - you have a much, MUCH better chance to land a game changing star at the top of the draft. Not a guarantee - just a chance - but a hugely better one. So much so that even having 3-4 swings late in the draft is not as useful as having a single swing at the very beginning.
And in 2018 2 was Bagley
So there were busts up there both years.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
Givoni (who has legit inside info) just posted a mock draft (he has Moody going 8!)
He has us taking Tre Murphy:
"The 6-foot-9 Murphy's stock has been skyrocketing in the pre-draft process as teams have gotten a close look at his combination of outstanding size, length and shooting prowess, which saw him convert 43% of his 3-pointers at Virginia. He is the one name teams identified as being the biggest snub from this week's Green Room invites, in terms of where they expect him to be picked. The Wizards will likely be attracted to the fact that he's a 21-year old junior who doesn't need the ball and fits their timetable better than most of the teenagers projected to be drafted in this range".
He has us taking Tre Murphy:
"The 6-foot-9 Murphy's stock has been skyrocketing in the pre-draft process as teams have gotten a close look at his combination of outstanding size, length and shooting prowess, which saw him convert 43% of his 3-pointers at Virginia. He is the one name teams identified as being the biggest snub from this week's Green Room invites, in terms of where they expect him to be picked. The Wizards will likely be attracted to the fact that he's a 21-year old junior who doesn't need the ball and fits their timetable better than most of the teenagers projected to be drafted in this range".
Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
SUPERBALLMAN wrote:Dark Faze wrote:I wonder if we could get #16 and #18 for #7 (should the GS trade happen).
We'd own #14, #15, #16, #18.
Whew.
Could we possibly flip Wiseman to the Rockets for #23, #24, and a future 2nd round pick? Lol
Because I really like the potential of the Gafford / Bryant combo. Whew...
I do like the 16 + 18 for 7 !
The value isnt the problem, but it just doesnt work in actuality. Having 4 picks in the same draft all next to each other becomes an issue. All the players are on the same contract and timeline. As much as I love 12-20 on paper, I think I would choose to trade one of those picks for a later pick and future 1st to keep a pipeline of assets.
Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
- FAH1223
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
- TGW
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II
mhd wrote:Givoni (who has legit inside info) just posted a mock draft (he has Moody going 8!)
He has us taking Tre Murphy:
"The 6-foot-9 Murphy's stock has been skyrocketing in the pre-draft process as teams have gotten a close look at his combination of outstanding size, length and shooting prowess, which saw him convert 43% of his 3-pointers at Virginia. He is the one name teams identified as being the biggest snub from this week's Green Room invites, in terms of where they expect him to be picked. The Wizards will likely be attracted to the fact that he's a 21-year old junior who doesn't need the ball and fits their timetable better than most of the teenagers projected to be drafted in this range".
Where did he have Kispert and Garuba?
My only issue with Murphy is that his rebounding and assist rate for a forward is anemic.
Some random troll wrote:Not to sound negative, but this team is owned by an arrogant cheapskate, managed by a moron and coached by an idiot. Recipe for disaster.












