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The Official 2023 Draft Thread

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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#321 » by Jay81 » Mon Apr 17, 2023 4:49 pm

NatP4 wrote:Amen and Ausar are playing in the overtime elite league. We have almost no historical context for that league. The best player to ever play in OTE previously was Jean Montero, who went undrafted and is now a really bad backup guard in Europe.

Combine that with the fact that the Thompson Twins could be juniors in the NCAA right now based on their age.

If you rank the leagues, it’s gotta be something like:

NBA
NBL/Euroleague/G League
French league
NCAA/other mediocre pro leagues

Huge gap

OTE

oh okay--thanks...thats really helpful. Lets just hope we get a top 3 pick lol
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#322 » by doclinkin » Mon Apr 17, 2023 5:32 pm

NatP4 wrote:I would guess that if you put Cissoko in the NCAA, he would be posting 20+ PPG and 5+ assists and be projected as a top 10 pick. I don’t think the level of competition is even comparable. The g league is just different now. It’s highly competitive, made up of all of the former best college players.


I doubt it. This is demonstrably false and easily checked. Distinct from Euro guys the G-League is pretty easy to contrast with the NCAA since yeah they did have many prospects who played in college then immediately graduate to the G-League. Take a look at the stat leaders of the G-League in any given year, then contrast with those players' NCAA profile and you will see a significant jump in their numbers. (Check out Mac McClung and his .419 FG% at Texas Tech vs his .548% with the Blue Coats. He didn't suddenly get faster, stronger, taller, etc once playing against more 'highly competitive' opponents.

The G-League game is still played looser and wilder than the college game's top teams. Coaching is better in college, the control over players is more significant, coaches can recruit for and input a system. Look at salaries, GLeague coaches make about $75k on average where even low paid Division 1 coaches are paid double that amount. There is more incentive for the best coaches to take a college job. The G-league has had what one G-League coach graduate to an NBA head coaching position? (My guy Dave Jeorger).

I like the G-League as a developmental league. It is improving. I do think it is still true that you get better fundamental skills training at the college level. Yes there are some guys like Johnny Davis who star in college and struggle at the G-League level. There is less team play at this level, more freelancing and gunning for points to be noticed, less defense in general especially regarding scouting and game planning to stop a particular player.

I like Sissoko's talent. I'm curious about the track record of the Ignite graduates, but that squad is so new that I don't think we have a sense of their alumni's track record in the NBA and whether the team develops good talent or showcases them to their best advantage.
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#323 » by DCZards » Mon Apr 17, 2023 6:06 pm

doclinkin wrote:
NatP4 wrote:I would guess that if you put Cissoko in the NCAA, he would be posting 20+ PPG and 5+ assists and be projected as a top 10 pick. I don’t think the level of competition is even comparable. The g league is just different now. It’s highly competitive, made up of all of the former best college players.

I like the G-League as a developmental league. It is improving. I do think it is still true that you get better fundamental skills training at the college level. Yes there are some guys like Johnny Davis who star in college and struggle at the G-League level. There is less team play at this level, more freelancing and gunning for points to be noticed, less defense in general especially regarding scouting and game planning to stop a particular player.

Yes...more freelancing and probably less defense in the G League as compared to college.

There is also less team chemistry and roster stability in the G League since 2-3 G League players typically suit up for games with the franchise's G League team on some nights and and its NBA team on other nights.

I watched a few Go-Go games on the tube this season...and, while I'm glad there's a developmental league where guys like Johnny D. can develop, most G League games are just a notch or two above summer league games.
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#324 » by NatP4 » Mon Apr 17, 2023 6:17 pm

There’s no logic to that whatsoever. You would be contrasting pre-draft 18/19 year olds in the g league vs 18/19 year olds in the NCAA.

You are also taking the very best college players and placing them in the G-league, not players from Southern Utah, Omaha, Howard, etc….

This is no commentary on the development track comparison between the Ignite vs NBA or even correlation with draft position. Isaiah Todd probably should’ve gone to the NCAA and played 2-3 years. It’s about the level of competition.

The worst G league players are/were NCAA stars. 99% of college basketball players will never sniff the G league. It’s clearly a significant step up in competition.

And you can certainly argue that certain box score stats are easier to accumulate in a spread out style of game like the g league, and alongside better teammates. My overall point is that the g league is a higher level of competition than the NCAA and that it’s not close.
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#325 » by doclinkin » Mon Apr 17, 2023 8:05 pm

NatP4 wrote:NBA
NBL/Euroleague/G League
French league
NCAA/other mediocre pro leagues

Huge gap

OTE


I have it as:

NBA
Olympics
Eurochampionship play/World Cup/top qualifiers
Euroleague play
Spanish league/ NBL/ Top domestic clubs
McDonalds All-American championship games
NCAA Div 1 top schools and conferences
G League/ French League
AAU play/ OTE (as near as I can tell)
NCAA Div 2 and under
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#326 » by doclinkin » Mon Apr 17, 2023 8:42 pm

NatP4 wrote:There’s no logic to that whatsoever. You would be contrasting pre-draft 18/19 year olds in the g league vs 18/19 year olds in the NCAA.

You are also taking the very best college players and placing them in the G-league, not players from Southern Utah, Omaha, Howard, etc….

This is no commentary on the development track comparison between the Ignite vs NBA or even correlation with draft position. Isaiah Todd probably should’ve gone to the NCAA and played 2-3 years. It’s about the level of competition.

The worst G league players are/were NCAA stars. 99% of college basketball players will never sniff the G league. It’s clearly a significant step up in competition.

And you can certainly argue that certain box score stats are easier to accumulate in a spread out style of game like the g league, and alongside better teammates. My overall point is that the g league is a higher level of competition than the NCAA and that it’s not close.


Ok. And I think you haven't shown an argument beyond that you think it is better. The 'very best college players' are playing in the NBA. The ones who fail to earn minutes are the ones sent to the G League. Where they accumulate certain box score stats in a spread out style that does not play defense and where players freelance and gun to get noticed. Where a guy like Jay Huff is the G League defensive player of the year and can't get a sniff with an NBA squad.

The money is better in Europe. I'll sound like our Deni fans but: the practices harder, the defenses tougher, the fundamentals better, the fans more rabid, often national or regional pride is on the line. Hell in some leagues they string nets between the court and the fans because they will throw batteries and beer bottles at opposing players.

The g-league has solid talent, of course, but overall the play is more disjointed, less coordinated, less competitive. And harder to gauge talent in my opinion. So far the best players in the draft generally come through the top college programs. That is where you get your all-stars. Many fewer starters rise from the G-League. I suspect the pool of college talent may even deepen with players' ability to earn $$$ for staying in school. Better money than the G-League is offering. Players who can't hack school or feel like they have a better showcase for their talent may still choose the Ignite, but there is no longer zero alternative for a kid who wants to earn money from his basketball skills directly out of high school.
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#327 » by Kanyewest » Mon Apr 17, 2023 10:31 pm

NatP4 wrote:
Kanyewest wrote:
NatP4 wrote:

For reference: Dick, at 19.5 years old, is averaging less points, less assists, on worse efficiency while playing college basketball vs Cissoko at 18 years old playing for the Ignite.

There is no comparison in terms of the defense, secondary playmaking, and athleticism between the two.


I'm not really sure if the defense is worse in the G-league or if the addition of zone defense makes college basketball overall harder to score. From an eye test, it does feel like the defensive intensity is lower in the G-league. Or perhaps you are right that maybe it's just overall talent level difference to why offensive efficiency is lower in college. Maybe it seems that way because the offensive players that one plays with in the g-league are better and are generally better than the defenses that they play against. I would be curious if Dick's efficiency actually increases/decreases in the gleague if he had better teammates and how Cissoko would perform in the NCAA with lesser competition but different rule changes.


I would guess that if you put Cissoko in the NCAA, he would be posting 20+ PPG and 5+ assists and be projected as a top 10 pick. I don’t think the level of competition is even comparable. The g league is just different now. It’s highly competitive, made up of all of the former best college players. Some of Gradey Dick’s best games came against Omaha, Southern Utah, Howard, and Texas Southern. None of those schools have ever had a single player with NBA level talent or anything close to it.


I would say 20 ppg seems high (perhaps even 5 apg) in the college game because not only are the games shorter but the shot clock is 30 seconds which means it is played at slower pace. Cissoko would also have to be essentially the lone wolf on a team where he could generate a high enough usage. Essentially you would be talking about an Iverson, Carmelo, Michael Beasley, Zion, or Durant level scorer historically.

Now could he show that he could be a top 10 level perhaps, but if he were to put up those numbers in college, I think he would be closer to a top 3-4 pick.
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#328 » by Kanyewest » Mon Apr 17, 2023 10:52 pm

Looks like the Wizards lost the tiebreaker between the Pacers

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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#329 » by NatP4 » Tue Apr 18, 2023 3:21 am

doclinkin wrote:
NatP4 wrote:There’s no logic to that whatsoever. You would be contrasting pre-draft 18/19 year olds in the g league vs 18/19 year olds in the NCAA.

You are also taking the very best college players and placing them in the G-league, not players from Southern Utah, Omaha, Howard, etc….

This is no commentary on the development track comparison between the Ignite vs NBA or even correlation with draft position. Isaiah Todd probably should’ve gone to the NCAA and played 2-3 years. It’s about the level of competition.

The worst G league players are/were NCAA stars. 99% of college basketball players will never sniff the G league. It’s clearly a significant step up in competition.

And you can certainly argue that certain box score stats are easier to accumulate in a spread out style of game like the g league, and alongside better teammates. My overall point is that the g league is a higher level of competition than the NCAA and that it’s not close.


Ok. And I think you haven't shown an argument beyond that you think it is better. The 'very best college players' are playing in the NBA. The ones who fail to earn minutes are the ones sent to the G League. Where they accumulate certain box score stats in a spread out style that does not play defense and where players freelance and gun to get noticed. Where a guy like Jay Huff is the G League defensive player of the year and can't get a sniff with an NBA squad.

The money is better in Europe. I'll sound like our Deni fans but: the practices harder, the defenses tougher, the fundamentals better, the fans more rabid, often national or regional pride is on the line. Hell in some leagues they string nets between the court and the fans because they will throw batteries and beer bottles at opposing players.

The g-league has solid talent, of course, but overall the play is more disjointed, less coordinated, less competitive. And harder to gauge talent in my opinion. So far the best players in the draft generally come through the top college programs. That is where you get your all-stars. Many fewer starters rise from the G-League. I suspect the pool of college talent may even deepen with players' ability to earn $$$ for staying in school. Better money than the G-League is offering. Players who can't hack school or feel like they have a better showcase for their talent may still choose the Ignite, but there is no longer zero alternative for a kid who wants to earn money from his basketball skills directly out of high school.


You’ve lost me here, Doc. I’m not comparing the G league to overseas, I’m simply comparing the G-league to the NCAA and once again, offering zero commentary on whether or not it’s a good selection from a developmental perspective. That is a decision that is unique to each individual player. I am talking about level of competition.

I don’t see your argument other than a few bad examples of players that already played 4 years of college basketball (McClung/Huff) and then entered the draft (which once again, is not the subject of discussion).

You can throw out variables like intensity levels/disjointed ness and whatever else, and I can talk about how Gradey Dick literally played against Omaha, Southern Utah, and Howard, featuring zero future professional basketball players from those 3 rosters combined. He also played on a Kansas roster that featured 8 other top 100 ranked high school players.

You are right, we don’t have much of a track record for the blue chip high school players going the G league route. There are a few examples though. Dyson Daniels and Jalen Green to name a couple. Guys that put up good numbers and were good players in the g league at 18 years old, and translated into being good NBA players.

I really don’t know what you’re on about in your last paragraph. Significantly less top high school prospects go to the G league vs NCAA, obviously this yields less starters/stars.
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#330 » by NatP4 » Tue Apr 18, 2023 3:27 am

Kanyewest wrote:
NatP4 wrote:
Kanyewest wrote:
I'm not really sure if the defense is worse in the G-league or if the addition of zone defense makes college basketball overall harder to score. From an eye test, it does feel like the defensive intensity is lower in the G-league. Or perhaps you are right that maybe it's just overall talent level difference to why offensive efficiency is lower in college. Maybe it seems that way because the offensive players that one plays with in the g-league are better and are generally better than the defenses that they play against. I would be curious if Dick's efficiency actually increases/decreases in the gleague if he had better teammates and how Cissoko would perform in the NCAA with lesser competition but different rule changes.


I would guess that if you put Cissoko in the NCAA, he would be posting 20+ PPG and 5+ assists and be projected as a top 10 pick. I don’t think the level of competition is even comparable. The g league is just different now. It’s highly competitive, made up of all of the former best college players. Some of Gradey Dick’s best games came against Omaha, Southern Utah, Howard, and Texas Southern. None of those schools have ever had a single player with NBA level talent or anything close to it.


I would say 20 ppg seems high (perhaps even 5 apg) in the college game because not only are the games shorter but the shot clock is 30 seconds which means it is played at slower pace. Cissoko would also have to be essentially the lone wolf on a team where he could generate a high enough usage. Essentially you would be talking about an Iverson, Carmelo, Michael Beasley, Zion, or Durant level scorer historically.

Now could he show that he could be a top 10 level perhaps, but if he were to put up those numbers in college, I think he would be closer to a top 3-4 pick.


You are right, I should say 20&5 per 36 minutes. Very few college players actually average 20 PPG&5 assists.

Per 36, there are a handful of meh prospects averaging 20+ like Sensabaugh, Hawkins, Kris Murray. Marcus Sasser averaged just a tick below 20&4, as did Brandin Podziemski.
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#331 » by Jay81 » Tue Apr 18, 2023 5:36 pm

Cam Whitmore? Alot of people compairing him to Bridges/Maggette.....looks like a pretty good wing player and super athletic. Not much of a passer though and his handle needs improving
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#332 » by closg00 » Tue Apr 18, 2023 6:56 pm

NBA Draft prospects will have to participate in league's combine or won't be eligible to be picked, per report

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-draft-prospects-will-have-to-participate-in-leagues-combine-or-wont-be-eligible-to-be-picked-per-report/

Good
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#333 » by dckingsfan » Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:29 pm

I don't see the temping trade down scenarios this year...
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#334 » by Frichuela » Tue Apr 18, 2023 10:53 pm

closg00 wrote:
NBA Draft prospects will have to participate in league's combine or won't be eligible to be picked, per report

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-draft-prospects-will-have-to-participate-in-leagues-combine-or-wont-be-eligible-to-be-picked-per-report/

Good


Awesome news. So annoying not knowing the measurements of top prospects in the last few drafts.
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#335 » by doclinkin » Tue Apr 18, 2023 11:11 pm

NatP4 wrote:You’ve lost me here, Doc. I’m not comparing the G league to overseas, I’m simply comparing the G-league to the NCAA and once again, offering zero commentary on whether or not it’s a good selection from a developmental perspective. That is a decision that is unique to each individual player. I am talking about level of competition.

I don’t see your argument other than a few bad examples of players that already played 4 years of college basketball (McClung/Huff) and then entered the draft (which once again, is not the subject of discussion).

You can throw out variables like intensity levels/disjointed ness and whatever else, and I can talk about how Gradey Dick literally played against Omaha, Southern Utah, and Howard, featuring zero future professional basketball players from those 3 rosters combined. He also played on a Kansas roster that featured 8 other top 100 ranked high school players.

I really don’t know what you’re on about in your last paragraph. Significantly less top high school prospects go to the G league vs NCAA, obviously this yields less starters/stars.


Wait, your contention is Gradey Dick had weak competition? FWIW Kansas had the strongest Strength of Schedule in the nation.

https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankSOS

You could not have picked a worse example if your argument is that Gradey Dick's numbers are inflated by weak opposition.

I do look at how players perform against their toughest opposition. Which is one reason I knocked Gradey down a rung or two, because his numbers did falter somewhat against the stronger teams. But the power conferences commonly play against those surefire NBA starters. Those schools carry the blue chip talents that scouts have ID'ed since middle school. The day one starters and HOF talents most often go to these schools. That is the best showcase for their talents.

My point is that I suspect this will strengthen now that the money is there for players to stay in school, or switch to a higher profile team. This will temporarily tend to drain the rosters of the G-League, where unseasoned players go to refine their game if they left school early and need seasoning.

But either way, the players in school will be competing against those acknowledged top NBA talents, the guys who will swiftly play in the NBA. Game-ready players, instant rotation guys, and probable stars. By definition G-League players are not regular NBA rotation players. They either are not good enough to play real minutes in the NBA -- yet, or they never will be. They are on teams that do not stay together for 4 years, the average length of a G-League career is 3 years, most often not with the same team. There is no way for the 'seniors' on a G-League team to instill a culture. They tend not to play within a team concept, especially on Defense.

(The exceptions to this are rare. The Long Island Nets had a number of players who played better this year than their prior stints. I'd love to look at Ronnie Burrell in any coaching search. Coby Karl likewise did well with the Delaware Blue Coats, which makes sense since his dad came up through the old CBA before Isaiah Thomas bought it and ruined it).

The NCAA top conferences still have an edge over the G-League. Especially those teams that contend for Championship slots. The G-League has nothing that compares with that intensity. Average attendance for a G-League game is less than 3,000 fans. Kansas plays home games in front of nearly six times that number, road games in front of 4 times that amount on average. The pressure is higher, the accountability if you fall short is more severe, the crucible is hotter. Magnify that by a factor of 10 in March.

No the G-League is 'not even close' in terms of talent in the top teams and top conferences, and pressure, etc. Good talents have come through the Elite. But even that pool may be drained a bit in the next few years. The money is better in college right now.
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#336 » by NatP4 » Wed Apr 19, 2023 12:45 am

Of course I am not comparing the SOS of Kansas to the rest of the NCAA. That has nothing to do with my point at all.

I definitely agree with your point about NIL and the shift that will be seen in the next couple of years. Outside of that, I’m done having this argument, more interested in your opinion of Cissoko as a prospect.
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#337 » by doclinkin » Wed Apr 19, 2023 1:14 am

NatP4 wrote:Of course I am not comparing the SOS of Kansas to the rest of the NCAA. That has nothing to do with my point at all.

I definitely agree with your point about NIL and the shift that will be seen in the next couple of years. Outside of that, I’m done having this argument, more interested in your opinion of Cissoko as a prospect.



Athletic, playing a team game, he's a guard in part because he has no low-post footwork or moves, but he has the talent to improve there with a mentor and big league strength coach. He has a frame that will build strength swiftly. It's always good to see young players that are willing passers. Face up game is a straightline dribble drive or a wide open jump shot. Agree with Dat that in his highlight games he's shooting while unguarded. He's got prodigious talents and tools. Not on the level of a Giddey/Dyson (court awareness) or Sochan (hustle and energy level) but in that general mode and more physically gifted than either. I don't like him for the Wizards because we haven't demonstrated an ability to develop that sort of player. A more physically imposing Deni Avdija without quite the advanced positional awareness on defense. But as a 2nd rounder he could prove a serious steal for some team. I agree he has 1st round talent and will likely rise after the combine. His career will depend on his development. But I mean duh, so does every player. And he's young, he should get better, unless he's dumb. But I don't get the idea that he is.
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#338 » by NatP4 » Wed Apr 19, 2023 1:17 am

dckingsfan wrote:I don't see the temping trade down scenarios this year...


I don’t see anyone projected in the 7-15 range as worthy of the 8/9 pick. 9 for 21&22 from Brooklyn would be my move. Then package 42&59 and whatever else, to move up into the 30-35 range.

And of course:

21: Coulibaly
22: Cissoko
30ish: Podziemski

If you land at 3/4, I’m looking at Ausar Thompson personally. Think he’s an ELITE fit with Beal/Porzingis. Reallly like his game. Amen has the physical traits, no doubt, but his game has serious red flags in terms of being an elite impact player. Would still be thrilled to roll the dice on him if you win the 3rd/4th pick.

Right now, I’d rank that top 5 group like this:

1. Wemby
2. Ausar
3. Miller
4. Amen
5. Scoot
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#339 » by NatP4 » Wed Apr 19, 2023 2:29 am

Here’s a good reference point for the twins. Playing in a game against former Creighton players.



On the highlight reels against AAU level competition, they look like a couple of Lebrons. Against former NCAA players, totally different. Amen really is not a true PG, he has virtually no perimeter game, and his defense is essentially just floating around cheating for steals and leaving his feet for blocks. The basketball IQ/feel for the game is not a strength at all.

Ausar is really the guy that slows things down and gets the team into sets and plays within himself (at times). He atleast looks at the basket when teams go under and gives solid defensive effort. He still gambles way too much and ball watches at times. Still, he looks like a primary playmaker on O that can play PNR and make all the passes.
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#340 » by doclinkin » Wed Apr 19, 2023 2:32 am

NatP4 wrote:If you land at 3/4, I’m looking at Ausar Thompson personally.


Of the Thompson brothers I agree on Ausar. An unusual skillset, as a more advanced version of the exact sort of player we are talking about in the mold of playmaking wing/forward with defensive chops. His team play and defensive cunning suggest an elite role-player. On Amen, I like the athleticism, even against lesser talent, I'm just not sure about a lead guard who can't shoot.

But If we were lucky enough to land a top 4 pick and Brandon Miller fell to our spot, I walk away happy. Shot 40% from 3 all year (until he got a groin injury in the SEC tourney) with high usage, as the focal point of opposing defenses. Capable both off the bounce and catch and shoot. Range to deep 3. His presence would unclog defenses with his height range and quick release. Most importantly to me he added that 3FG over the summer when it was suggested as a weak point for him going into his freshman year. Suggests his game is still growing.

Our team needs outside shooting. Especially from a switchable forward/wing who can truly play 2-4. Adding that opens up room for the high post sets that we have been running and makes KP even more efficient. Likewise Beal. Anything that helps us get our money's worth from Beal's contract is a positive thing to me.

MIller played well against incredibly tough competition and under significant spotlight due to the chaos of this year (to which he contributed significantly, so okay Ted won't take him).

Alabama played slow so his per40 of
23pt/10r/2.5 a/1.1 stl/1.1 blocks

doesn't look as good as his per100 numbers would suggest:
32pts/ 14r/ 3.5a/ 1.5stl/ 1.5bk.

To me he adds exactly the player Kuzma wants to be. Ranged tall forward who can handle, dish, shoot from range, rebound, defend. His fit next to Beal/KP would be nice, better still he makes Deni a better player by converting some of his savvy passes into outside shots that drop.



Best though: he renders signing Kuzma superfluous, which allows Tommy to listen to sign and trade offers and we aren't forced to re-ink him at a too-steep price that locks us into mediocrity as our probable ceiling.

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