Tre Johnson: welcome to the DMV

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

As for Tre

Look. I wanted Ace, would trade up to get him. I wanted Maluach if we stuck where we were. Flagg of course if we won. Wouldn’t hate on Harper if we caught him. But Tre as a consolation prize is not worth wearing a hair shirt and bemoaning the fates. If he lives up to scouts expectations he’s a player that every team needs. A high volume high efficiency gunner with extended range. A clutch time option who can score regardless of the defense.

Granted we haven’t seen it yet. He’s caught in a guard reshuffle with Bub CJ Key Kispert and even Riley making a play for minutes there. But Vets CJ and Middleton give him the nod as a true shooter. He definitely can get his shot up quick and clean. You expect a rookie to struggle to recalibrate against bigger quicker players and longer range. But the shot looks real. It will fall.

He needs muscle of course but again he’s a workout demon. If coaches say he needs to add strength I have no doubt he’ll put in the work. Check the transformation of a guy like Kyshawn under this management. He’s young. He will grow.

Remember he is one of two players in our draft who reclassified to jump early. (Our own Will Riley). Tre will be a teenager until March 7th. Our last game of the year is April 12. So for all but one month of the season he’ll still be a baby. He’s got years of growth left.

That’s the plan though. Draft a class of NBA interns. College undergrads working on their degree in professional ball. Then give them on the job training to grow up together. We have doubled down on youth every year because we can’t afford to risk the Knicks pick. And the Suns swap.

Tre was not my pick in the run up to the draft. But his profile is a natural fit on any team. A QuickDraw gunner with range who can hit off the dribble or off the catch. That player fits next to anybody we draft next year. Much as I like Ace they’ve had to design an offense where he doesn’t have to dribble or make decisions within the scheme. And like I said with Harper, if you can’t play him next to last years ROY then it’s awkward for building a team. Not Tre. If he comes as advertised he makes the stars around him better. KG wouldn’t have a ring without Ray Allen.

And it will be nice if the Wiz have finally drafted a player who doesn’t have to be taught to shoot the ball.

Anyway. Will Riley is going to make your complaints moot. In a future redraft of this year Willy J Ball is going to be top 5 in the hindsight shoulda coulda yammering. Book it. 6’10” point guard. Defining a new archetype where teams try to emulate the ‘Wizards model’ of drafting young long skilled smart players to bring up through the system. A system where anybody gets touches if they show they can handle it. And Riley exemplifying it, playing with poise and savvy vision and range. Passing over the heads of defenders to find Tre in the corner for that sweet 3 when you need it.

We just have some work to do between now and all that future stuff.

Will Riley is an MFer. We got one!

He definitely belonged top-10. Like a lot of other people, I think he's ahead of Tre.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

First: Tre didn't just kill it in offseason workouts, he was a genuine college standout as a freshman. Probably more so than Harper or Bailey though they were higher rated in high school. They are the ones that showed more in measurements, and skill workouts and were drafted higher because of it.

Second: No signs that Harper is a generation point guard prospect that I've seen. Good prospect, good size, good downhill ability, we will see whether he develops the court vision or 3 point ability of a top level point guard but he hasn't proven those things yet. I think he's getting a bit overhyped.

He was also a pretty meh to crap defender in college which is one of two key reasons teams didn't have him in the same tiers as the Flagg, and Harper/VJ/ Bailey tiers), and that would be defense (yes I know he was asked to carry the offensive load, and so took time off under heavy usage on d, and I know he has the measurements to at least be average in time, but there's a fundamental difference between an argument for an elite defender, a good defender, and elite measurables for defense, and "maybe he becomes solid due to his measurables and less heavy usage" take on a players defense and defensive potential) and athleticism.

Tre's got his ticket to success, it's highly unlikely he busts, but the ceiling was always lower than the big 4 because of the athletic and defensive short comings. No doubt the higher floor than Bailey, but definitely not the higher ceiling than any of those 4.

I think you're the first person I've come across that views Harper as good, rather than elite. I'm not saying Harper's a locked in 1.01 for any draft, but he'd be the 1.01 in most solid to good drafts, and he is generally tiered out similarly to guys like Ant, Ja, and the like from their classes, and I think he has a greater upside than Ja if not Ant.

Theathletic did a nice piece on Tre Johnson repeatedly talking to scouts about him, they generally really like him, see high likely outcomes, but like me, they seem skeptical of stardom, view him as the 3rd guy on a legit team, and this draft had 4 guys who had top 2 guy potential (and when I say that, I mean "reasonably likely", obviously there are guys peppered throughout the draft with high ceilings, but far less likely projected outcome that would reach such heights, whereas the big 4 in this class were generally seen as 40%+ and better to spit ball it, whereas as a say, Maluach, could have a through the roof outcome, but it's far less likely).

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6720995/2025/10/16/tre-johnson-what-scouts-are-saying/

Beyond frustrating as a wizards fan/victim to just perenially be screwed in this way. It's possible I'm wrong on his ceiling, I hope so, but I think the rush up the charts you saw with his prospect status from consensus 5th-7th (depending upon how high people had Kon ranked) to as high as 3rd on some boards, like Vecennie, is going to most likely disappear, and he'll settle in amongst the second or third tier of this class beyond the studs (Flagg+er's). Pray I'm wrong, but that is definitely the most likely outcome.

I agree that Harper was consistently rated higher than Tre but from what I read pre-draft, he was also consistently rated second tier, much closer to Tre than to a Cooper Flagg type. My reading of the draft was

Flagg
. . .
Harper
Edgecomb
Tre Johnson
Bailey (higher if you believed he wanted to play for you)
. . .
Malauch
Kueppel
etc.

I thought we were screwed by the lottery, yes, and we needed a PG of which Harper is the only one likely to be a playmaker, much more than we needed a wing scorer. But I also thought that Charlotte reaching for Kueppel early saved us and let us still bring in a tier 2 draftee. Is he more than a Tyler Herro type? Will he even become that? I don't know. Some guys have looked good so far (including Malauch and Kueppel), he has not and that's worrisome.

But he was a dynamic shooter as a college freshman, not a guy who didn't produce in college but was picked because of workouts and measurements, which was my main point. Whether that translates to the pros, I don't claim to know. My record of draft predictions is not very good so I'm more in a wait and see and hope mode.

Edgecombe looks like he's Donovan Mitchell and Dwayne Wade explosive. He hit 5 threes and scored 34 points in his debut. He finishes STRONG.

VJ is tier 1.

[The Consiglieri]

Will Riley is an MFer. We got one!

He definitely belonged top-10. Like a lot of other people, I think he's ahead of Tre.

Definitely seems legit, tiny sample size, but it's reasonably exciting. I will always laugh a bit with him because when I made my list of guys I wanted between 18 and our 2nd rounder, Riley was basically the last guy on the list I was okay taking with our 1st. Love how young he is, how much he's growing, lots of potential. Flashed from the jump in college. Super exciting prospect. 31 points in his opener, if you look at his college season, he started kicking ---/playing quite well from January 31st onward, wrapped up the season well too with only 1 stinker, against Duke. I'm really intrigued with him. He's one of those high volatility guys where you could end up having a fantastic player, or just a 3 point/bucket machine type, but I am pretty convinced he should have gone top 10-12 in retrospect. Really like him.

It's probably worth noting, needs to be underlined:
#1: One of the most movable contracts in the league is a wing that can defend a bit and has great positional size/length.
#2: A lot of the top bit of the draft in '26 are yet more wings.

I tend to think they're collecting the top talent available that is also easily movable. In that sense, Riley is a classic pick: high, high upside, great length, and a wing on a cheap contract.

[penbeast0]

He was also a pretty meh to crap defender in college which is one of two key reasons teams didn't have him in the same tiers as the Flagg, and Harper/VJ/ Bailey tiers), and that would be defense (yes I know he was asked to carry the offensive load, and so took time off under heavy usage on d, and I know he has the measurements to at least be average in time, but there's a fundamental difference between an argument for an elite defender, a good defender, and elite measurables for defense, and "maybe he becomes solid due to his measurables and less heavy usage" take on a players defense and defensive potential) and athleticism.

Tre's got his ticket to success, it's highly unlikely he busts, but the ceiling was always lower than the big 4 because of the athletic and defensive short comings. No doubt the higher floor than Bailey, but definitely not the higher ceiling than any of those 4.

I think you're the first person I've come across that views Harper as good, rather than elite. I'm not saying Harper's a locked in 1.01 for any draft, but he'd be the 1.01 in most solid to good drafts, and he is generally tiered out similarly to guys like Ant, Ja, and the like from their classes, and I think he has a greater upside than Ja if not Ant.

Theathletic did a nice piece on Tre Johnson repeatedly talking to scouts about him, they generally really like him, see high likely outcomes, but like me, they seem skeptical of stardom, view him as the 3rd guy on a legit team, and this draft had 4 guys who had top 2 guy potential (and when I say that, I mean "reasonably likely", obviously there are guys peppered throughout the draft with high ceilings, but far less likely projected outcome that would reach such heights, whereas the big 4 in this class were generally seen as 40%+ and better to spit ball it, whereas as a say, Maluach, could have a through the roof outcome, but it's far less likely).

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6720995/2025/10/16/tre-johnson-what-scouts-are-saying/

Beyond frustrating as a wizards fan/victim to just perenially be screwed in this way. It's possible I'm wrong on his ceiling, I hope so, but I think the rush up the charts you saw with his prospect status from consensus 5th-7th (depending upon how high people had Kon ranked) to as high as 3rd on some boards, like Vecennie, is going to most likely disappear, and he'll settle in amongst the second or third tier of this class beyond the studs (Flagg+er's). Pray I'm wrong, but that is definitely the most likely outcome.

I agree that Harper was consistently rated higher than Tre but from what I read pre-draft, he was also consistently rated second tier, much closer to Tre than to a Cooper Flagg type. My reading of the draft was

Flagg
. . .
Harper
Edgecomb
Tre Johnson
Bailey (higher if you believed he wanted to play for you)
. . .
Malauch
Kueppel
etc.

I thought we were screwed by the lottery, yes, and we needed a PG of which Harper is the only one likely to be a playmaker, much more than we needed a wing scorer. But I also thought that Charlotte reaching for Kueppel early saved us and let us still bring in a tier 2 draftee. Is he more than a Tyler Herro type? Will he even become that? I don't know. Some guys have looked good so far (including Malauch and Kueppel), he has not and that's worrisome.

But he was a dynamic shooter as a college freshman, not a guy who didn't produce in college but was picked because of workouts and measurements, which was my main point. Whether that translates to the pros, I don't claim to know. My record of draft predictions is not very good so I'm more in a wait and see and hope mode.

Edgecombe looks like he's Donovan Mitchell and Dwayne Wade explosive. He hit 5 threes and scored 34 points in his debut. He finishes STRONG.

VJ is tier 1.

Again, our perceptions now are different than coming out of college and the workouts. VJ was always supposed to be the athletic freak of the draft stars, he and maybe Ace. Flagg and Harper were the high BBIQ ones, Tre the top shooter.

[payitforward]

CCJ -- u r on a roll, old buddy!

[Northwest Roddy]

Edgecomb blowing past his defender and dunking all over Jalen Brown passes the eye test.

Sucks so much we weren’t top three this year. Life isn’t fair.

[TGW]

Edgecomb blowing past his defender and dunking all over Jalen Brown passes the eye test.

Sucks so much we weren’t top three this year. Life isn’t fair.

That kid looks legit. Philly has a scary backcourt.

[tontoz]

Edgecomb blowing past his defender and dunking all over Jalen Brown passes the eye test.

Sucks so much we weren’t top three this year. Life isn’t fair.

Did you watch the game? I did. The statline looks more impressive than the performance on the court.

Most of the time he was guarded by Simons who is one of the worst perimeter defenders in the league. Boston's interior D is really bad outside of Queda. Jaylen Brown certainly isn't a rim protector. He had 19 blocks total last season.

Every 3 VJ made was wide open catch and shoot. No 3s off the dribble or off movement. His scoring in the half court was mostly straight line drives. When his first step was cut off he didn't do much. Boston's help D was asleep most of the time.

I am worried that we might get wins against both Boston and Philly which will hurt the tank.