The What Should We Do With the 5th Pick II: IBJ Edition

[doclinkin]

Btw, everybody hopping on my Green bandwagon - welcome aboard.

Been there a while. I'm 100% certain that Ty Lawson and Danny Green will prove to be more reliable NBA players than many of the players that go before them. Ditto James Johnson.

I'm pretty confident about Nick Calathes too, especially as a possible draft & stash candidate. I like stealth prospect (possibly undrafted) Aaron Jackson on the all underrated team. Marcus Thornton may join them as a guy who sorta snuck up on people after hiding in community college his first couple years.

Of that group I'm thinking Ty Lawson may be the strongest 'kicking myself in the head/what the hell was I thinking' candidate for GMs who skipped him. He's been a solid player every year, comes out as the best player on a championship team, in a leadership position, with solid numbers to back him up, in the stat categories that he'll be expected to use in the NBA. Pretty much a no brainer.

Does that mean I think these players will all be better pros than everyone picked before them? Nope. I'm just thinking they'll have better value than the level at which they were picked.

There are some players who will be picked at just about the right level for their value in the league (Griffin, Terrence Williams) and even some of the guys I like best who will go a little too early in terms of relative value-- in another year they'd be a bargain as mid-first/late lotto, but this year in order to get them we have to burn a #5. James Harden or my guy Stef Curry for instance. "Worth it anyway' maybe, but you're not getting them for an absolute steal, you're paying a premium price for the player to do the thing they do well.

And there are guys like Jack McClinton who I'm confident will be able to do that thing they do well (score) at an NBA level, even if they aren't complete package players. Specialists.

Personally I think this is a good draft for role players. The top talents aren't quite as good as the top talents of other years, you pay well for what amounts to a higher quality of role-player. But if it helps you win that's all that matters. And I see highly useful players all the way to the bottom of the draft.

[omegatronic3]

The sign and trade is for next year, not this.

no he can sign an extension any time

[doclinkin]

The sign and trade is for next year, not this.

no he can sign an extension any time

Yes but if you max him out (or give him any significant raise) base year contract issues come into play so for 6 months his contract gets treated as if it has half value for purposes of arranging a trade. Tougher to get good value in the swap. Not impossible, just trickier. A 3-way with a team that has a traded player exception is one way to work it. But I'm no capnick, I leave that mess to the experts, I hate reading contract language when I'm not working. Type about bball so's not to have to think about anything consequential.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

^^^^^^^

I wonder if Ernie & Flip pay attention to any of this^^^^ stuff?

No.

Ernie would have known about Millsap if he cared about what's posted here.

He would also be advised that Hill is going to be a bust, or at best, be a long time developing.

Blair doesn't look the part but his performance was arguably as good as Griffin's and Curry's.

Where Hollinger rates Calathes is about what I have thought for the last 2 months: seriously good prospect, maybe better right now than over-hyped Rubio. Calathes is a distributor that can score and rebound. Put up great numbers in the SEC and just projects well as a team leader. Ideal guard off the bench IMO.

I don't think anything posted here matters to Ernie.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Barely - Where does Hill fit in our rotation, where?????? how is he going to get ANY minutes?
If we draft him then one of the bigs is getting moved. I'd rather have James Johnson who is also on the list and weighs 25 pounds more than Hill.

If I were running the team, the "current roster" would change by at least three players. And where would Hill fit? I would have him at back-up PF. And those players in his way, I would trade for a SG.

Then again, as I said, I think Young is the steal of the draft, and think we should trade down to get him. Or deal the pick for a vet. But, if I were picking #5, I'd take Hill -- knowing full well that some guard is going to prove better than him. But, several guards will also prove worse.

Relative to where I think they'll be drafted I believe Blair, Young, Green, and McClinton will be steals.

I have a feeling Meeks, Johnson, and maybe somebody like Marcus Thornton will surprise and do well next season. I think Hansbrough might be much better than anticipated, offensively.

barely, no offense but I think Hill's way overrated. I think Evans will take a while to be a player. I think BJ Mullens is going to suck. Most overrated. I'm not a big fan of DeRozan's but he's the type player I could really miss on . Westbrook and Rose were really great atletes as rookies and they more than held their own.

It's all speculation, so who knows. I just chimed in because i'm very decidedly anti-Hill.

[doclinkin]

Good audio interview with Stef Curry, here. You get a tiny piece of what I was saying about his willingness to be a dirty player when he's asked about whether he can guard the point. He says while he mostly has guarded 2-guards in college he has too much pride in his defense to allow PG's to blow by him all the time so he's pretty sure he'll find a way to stop them. (Just discussing attitude not aptitude here).

Here's audio from James Harden too. Says his body fat ratio in DC was actually a 7.7% down from 10.1% in Chicago (admits in part that's lost water weight to the virus he caught, plus he's got a careful diet plan). Working on shooting off the dribble, NBA three range, using his right hand. He clearly knows his shortcomings and is serious enough to address them.

[Wizardspride]

I don't think anything posted here matters to Ernie.

And it shouldn't.

[doclinkin]

James Johnson vid interview. The guy cracks me up, something about the accent. Seems like a nice enough young man, humble, willing to work hard.

Other all-interview soundbite allstars:

Brandon Jennings

Jonny Flynn says Stephen Curry is the best PG in the draft. Reminds us how every time he played on ESPN he had about a 40 pt game, ditto every time he played a top team. He's biased a bit since they were on the same USA Youth squad that went to Serbia with Michael Beasley DeAndre Jordan et al to win the silver in the 2007 FIBA U19 championships.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Big man with a tiny little voice, James Johnson. Sounds like a middle schooler, doc.

My perception of him is just like yours: Dude works hard and doesn't expect anything to come easy.

[WashWiz54]

I'm really torn on whether what would be most beneficial for our team- a distributing PG or a starting SG. Personally, I think Nick Young is a future starting SG in this league, however I don't know if management feels the same way. He has all the tools to be a top-tier SG in the league and from what we've heard thus far he seems to be using them. However, if this is not the case DeRozan is my SG of choice. We have time to develop him, and when the book is written on this draft class, I do believe he'll be a the best SG to come out.

An immediate impact SG would obviously be James Harden. A lot of the board has love for him so I won't be repetitive but I'd be fine with him as our pick too. Harden has the edge now but DeRozan will be better in three years. Either way both will be top level SG's so I'm happy with either.

Now if we decide to go PG I have a hard time going against Ty Lawson. We'd obviously trade down since at five he'd be a reach but boy is he a player. He is a floor general and more importantly a proven winner which means a whole lot to me. Why he is so far down on draft boards is beyond me because I have him as the best PG in this draft minus maybe Brandon Jennings.

Speaking of Brandon, while his tenure in Europe didn't work too well he still has a lot of skill. His skills may not have worked in Euro ball, but in the NBA he should be just fine. He's really fast and can take it to the hole with ease but understands he is a PG who's job is to distribute. He looks to be a great running mate with Gil if we decide to give him SG minutes.

The dream however is to get Amare using the pick making all this draft talk irrelevant. Maybe buy a later pick and select Lawson? Oh that would be a dream draft for me.

I like DeRoazan too, pariticularily since he outplayed Harden head to head. He's essentially the same age as Harden give or take a few weeks. He isn't a 1 dimensional player, although he doesn't have a 3 point shot in his arsenal, he has a pretty good mid range game.

Glad I'm not alone. Everyone else on this board seems to dislike him, but I'm guaranteeing he'll make ya'll eat them turds. (like that Kanye refrence?)

Atleast we all pretty much agree on Lawson. The dude is a stud and will be a player in this league.

Draft nights only 5 days, 16 hours away! I'm pumped!

[Dbloc123]

The Knicks are trying to make a deal with Washington to move up to the 5th pick offering Wilson Chandler. New York is after a number of players that they don't feel they can get at their #8 pick including Curry, Ricky Rubio and Jordan Hill.

It's possible they will offer their pick in a deal or hold onto their pick and add the 5th pick along with their 8th pick.

http://www.nbadraft.net/node/7444

Would u guys do it, or what about D lee

[Dat2U]

David Lee can't be offered in a trade because he's a free agent. Wilson Chandler does nothing for me and I doubt the Wizards have any real interest in him. Honestly there's nothing I'd want off of the Knicks roster and that includes Larry Hughes.

IBTM.

[closg00]

I don't think anything posted here matters to Ernie.

And it shouldn't.

I was slow in putting-up my post, what I meant was, does Ernie and his staff pour through the player-data (Hollinger & DX) when creating their depth-chart? One guy who has ranked very well the past two years is Lester Hudson.
http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Jus ... Crop-3262/

[WizBiz]

Do not want.

[Ruzious]

The sign and trade is for next year, not this.

no he can sign an extension any time

He's been very up front about his plans - saying he will not sign a contract before he becomes a free agent. This is the main reason why I've been saying we should discount any thoughts of getting Bosh and focus on Amare - not that we have much of a shot at Amare - but Amare makes more sense.

[LyricalRico]

Agreed. The Wiz wouldn't be interested. Chandler isn't needed in our rotation and we'd rather use the 5 in a blockbuster. But Chandler+8 could get them to 6 if Curry is still on the board.

[Ruzious]

WizNas must be salivating over this. Chandler is a very long and very athletic perimeter defender. Champ yun ship! The fact that he's a mediocre NBA basketball player is pretty much irrelevant.

[fishercob]

Well, my first reaction was "hell yeah" because my impression of chandler was shaped mainly about what I had heard in the media and the like about him. I thought the Knicks viewed him as a crucial piece to their future and an all but untouchable in trade talks -- a big G/F who strokes the three can put it on the floor and can defend. Kind of like a slightly poor man's Trevor Ariza, but locked into an ultra-cheap rookie deal.

But then I looked at the numbers.

Didn't crack 13 in PER this year (reminder, league average is "set" to 15)
Shoots 42% from the field and 32% from three.

So I'm not inspired.

That said, his numbers through two years do compare pretty favorably to Dom McGuire's: http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/ ... i?id=Q66M6

But I think some of that is attributable to opportunity (McGuire has been stuck behind better players) and system -- Chandler gets to bomb away in D'Antoni's scheme.

So I'm loathe to give up Steph Curry so I can acquire a guy that we may already have. OTOH, I would want my scouts and personnel guys doing some serious due diligence on Chandler, because if he has a legitimate shot at becoming the next Ariza within the next year or two (especially at his contract) then you might have to make that deal.

Here's a comparison between CHandler through this season and Ariza through his third season -- both seasons when they turned 21 and had a similar amount of total minutes:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/ ... i?id=1kFIP

Ariza's better, but not by a lot.


Hmmmm,

[LyricalRico]

Here's a comparison between CHandler through this season and Ariza through his third season -- both seasons when they turned 21 and had a similar amount of total minutes:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/ ... i?id=1kFIP

Ariza's better, but not by a lot.

Actually, Chandler has only been in the league for 2 years. It looks like that site is comparing that to Ariza's first 3 so the numbers could be skewed because of that.

From subjective game footage I would say that Chandler has much more offensive talent than Ariza. Unfortunately he played a lot of PF in D'Antoni's quick-shot offense (at least in the games I saw), which is what I think brought his PER down. Put him at SF on a decent team and I think he'd be fine. I see Ariza more as a defensive stopper who's offense is just gravy on top, pretty much like Bruce Bowen.

[jholmbe1]

I would be cool with trading the #5 for Chandler but only if we got the #8 back where we could still grab a player like Jennings, Flynn, or Evans.