Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011

[Ruzious]

Offensively Valanciunas is indeed entirely a center for Rytas but perhaps because I am such an optimist and because his touch his stroke at the line is so good (at 90% in a very small sample size this year but he's consistently very good) and because of his mobility I could see him working pretty well with Blatche and McGee in a rotation assuming McGee doesn't go into bad shot overdrive mode when paired with Valanciunas on the assumption that when he's the power forward and so is entitled to take the shots 'Dray takes.
Lighty and Wright don't do a ton for me but neither are view-with-alarm picks.

I also like Klay Thompson and LaceDarius Dunn as guys who could be Marcus Thornton/JR Smith/James Harden style second unit scoring threats and I guess Hopson might also fit that mold.

I know Lighty is an afterthought, but I think he is one of those do-it-all sg's. He would complement Young off the bench cause he can do a little bit of everything while NY can shoot & D. I also like to throw in situational analysis when I look at prospects as it can paint a picture not simply seen through numbers. Lighty tore his ACL as a prep star and then lost most of his Junior year to a foot injury. He has a strong build and is more athletic than people realize. Probably never a starter, but he will play in the league as a strong rotational player.

Another good call, pc. I think Lighty's been unselfish to a fault. Give him a couple of years, and he could be a shutdown defender at the 2. He's got the size/strength/athleticism combo. No doubt he's an athlete and a high flyer. And he can shoot and pass - probably needs to work on his handle.

[closg00]

I like Tyler Honeycutt too as an SF prospect, especially in the 2nd. Good defender, great passer, good height (6'8") but skinny as a rail... could be a great glue guy.

DX doesn't have Honeycutt taken in the 1st round but draft.net does. Honeycutt can fill-it-up, a serious consideration if we are picking 6th - 8.

[fishercob]

Wish I could stay up for BYU-SDSU tonight.

[pcbothwel]

Offensively Valanciunas is indeed entirely a center for Rytas but perhaps because I am such an optimist and because his touch his stroke at the line is so good (at 90% in a very small sample size this year but he's consistently very good) and because of his mobility I could see him working pretty well with Blatche and McGee in a rotation assuming McGee doesn't go into bad shot overdrive mode when paired with Valanciunas on the assumption that when he's the power forward and so is entitled to take the shots 'Dray takes.
Lighty and Wright don't do a ton for me but neither are view-with-alarm picks.

I also like Klay Thompson and LaceDarius Dunn as guys who could be Marcus Thornton/JR Smith/James Harden style second unit scoring threats and I guess Hopson might also fit that mold.

I know Lighty is an afterthought, but I think he is one of those do-it-all sg's. He would complement Young off the bench cause he can do a little bit of everything while NY can shoot & D. I also like to throw in situational analysis when I look at prospects as it can paint a picture not simply seen through numbers. Lighty tore his ACL as a prep star and then lost most of his Junior year to a foot injury. He has a strong build and is more athletic than people realize. Probably never a starter, but he will play in the league as a strong rotational player.

Another good call, pc. I think Lighty's been unselfish to a fault. Give him a couple of years, and he could be a shutdown defender at the 2. He's got the size/strength/athleticism combo. No doubt he's an athlete and a high flyer. And he can shoot and pass - probably needs to work on his handle.

Not to preach too much on this, but I think we have all seen the value of a Afflalo/Sefalosha type 2-guard. While I need to see more of Lighty, I think he can be in the same class if not better.
Give me Sullinger/T. Jones/Jonas 1st pick and Lighty in the 2nd and i am a happy man. In fact, not to get too elaborate, my dream scenerio would be to ship out Blatche and get back Aminu from the Clips along with that Detroit 2nd(Obviously there would be more to it but its just the framework).

Wall/Shakur
NY/Lighty(2nd)
Aminu/Shard
Sullinger(1st)/Shard/(Thomas Robinson/K. Faried)(2nd)
McGee/Seraphin

[closg00]

We need to start a Jim Fredette betting-pool, where will Jim get drafted? Will Larry Bird be able to resist taking him too-high like Utah did with Hayward?

[Rafael122]

We need to start a Jim Fredette betting-pool, where will Jim get drafted? Will Larry Bird be able to resist taking him too-high like Utah did with Hayward?

He's a lottery pick. He's Adam Morrison all over again, except he's 6'1'', has no NBA position and he can't play defense.

[fishercob]

We need to start a Jim Fredette betting-pool, where will Jim get drafted? Will Larry Bird be able to resist taking him too-high like Utah did with Hayward?

He's a lottery pick. He's Adam Morrison all over again, except he's 6'1'', has no NBA position and he can't play defense.

[fishercob]

We need to start a Jim Fredette betting-pool, where will Jim get drafted? Will Larry Bird be able to resist taking him too-high like Utah did with Hayward?

He's a lottery pick. He's Adam Morrison all over again, except he's 6'1'', has no NBA position and he can't play defense.

I could not hate that pigment-inspired comparison any more. Ammo was a 6'8 perimeter player who used his size to shot over people, inside and out. He was a terrible athlete.

Jimmer is built like a brick sh*thouse and has an unbelievable handle that he can use to free himself for his perfect jumper against NBA athletes. He's not accustomed to shooting over anyone. He has the strength to give himself some shooting space on is way to the hole and the coordination that allows him to be an unbelievable shot maker in traffic.

I haven't seen him enough to know about his passing/pg skills. He may not be able to stay in front of elite NBA pg's, but with the current rules neither can Wall, Rose, Curry, etc. I would not bet against this kid.

Adam Morrison? Please.

[Rafael122]

We need to start a Jim Fredette betting-pool, where will Jim get drafted? Will Larry Bird be able to resist taking him too-high like Utah did with Hayward?

He's a lottery pick. He's Adam Morrison all over again, except he's 6'1'', has no NBA position and he can't play defense.

I could not hate that pigment-inspired comparison any more. Ammo was a 6'8 perimeter player who used his size to shot over people, inside and out. He was a terrible athlete.

Jimmer is built like a brick sh*thouse and has an unbelievable handle that he can use to free himself for his perfect jumper against NBA athletes. He's not accustomed to shooting over anyone. He has the strength to give himself some shooting space on is way to the hole and the coordination that allows him to be an unbelievable shot maker in traffic.

I haven't seen him enough to know about his passing/pg skills. He may not be able to stay in front of elite NBA pg's, but with the current rules neither can Wall, Rose, Curry, etc. I would not bet against this kid.

Adam Morrison? Please.

Those guys you mentioned are all taller than he is, and can all contribute in many different ways than just scoring, i.e. passing, rebounding, etc. He's not a good athlete, the kid is going to get abused by taller, stronger, and faster players in the pros.

He'll make his niche in the NBA because he can shoot, but everything else is below average. Someone will make the mistake of drafting him too high.

[fishercob]

Jimmer is listed at 6'2 195. Curry at 6'3 185. What can Curry do physically that Jimmer can't? If anything, he's weaker.

As I said, I don't know about his passing because I haven't seen enough of him. But his handle is sick, certainly NBA-ready.

I'm not arguing he's going to be an elite NBA PG -- I don't think anyone is. But I have little doubt that he can play in the league. So if someone drafts him at 8 with the hopes of him being their franchise cornerstone, then yeah it'll be too high. But if you're drafting in the mid-late first round -- depending on team need -- I think you'll be hard pressed to find a much better player.

[Dat2U]

Jimmer is listed at 6'2 195. Curry at 6'3 185. What can Curry do physically that Jimmer can't? If anything, he's weaker.

As I said, I don't know about his passing because I haven't seen enough of him. But his handle is sick, certainly NBA-ready.

I'm not arguing he's going to be an elite NBA PG -- I don't think anyone is. But I have little doubt that he can play in the league. So if someone drafts him at 8 with the hopes of him being their franchise cornerstone, then yeah it'll be too high. But if you're drafting in the mid-late first round -- depending on team need -- I think you'll be hard pressed to find a much better player.

He's not a PG. He's definitely a scoring guard IMO. Can he play in the league? Sure. But I wouldn't spend a pick in the teens on him. 6-2 SGs w/o elite athleticism don't have a great track record for success. Basically he might be the next Eddie House.

[fishercob]

He's probably a better shotmaker in traffic and distance shooter now than House ever was. But even if not, House was a role player on some elite teams. I don't think that would be a bad career for Jimmer.

[pancakes3]

I see him being mo worse than ty lawson. Or even raymond felton

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Jimmer is listed at 6'2 195. Curry at 6'3 185. What can Curry do physically that Jimmer can't? If anything, he's weaker.

As I said, I don't know about his passing because I haven't seen enough of him. But his handle is sick, certainly NBA-ready.

I'm not arguing he's going to be an elite NBA PG -- I don't think anyone is. But I have little doubt that he can play in the league. So if someone drafts him at 8 with the hopes of him being their franchise cornerstone, then yeah it'll be too high. But if you're drafting in the mid-late first round -- depending on team need -- I think you'll be hard pressed to find a much better player.

He's not a PG. He's definitely a scoring guard IMO. Can he play in the league? Sure. But I wouldn't spend a pick in the teens on him. 6-2 SGs w/o elite athleticism don't have a great track record for success. Basically he might be the next Eddie House.

Eddie House, Derrick Fisher, JJ Redick (who doesn't play 6'4"), Ben Gordon, Will Bynum ... Jimmer's in the mold of those guys. He belongs in round one IMO.

One undersized, non-athletic SG who flopped that I'm old enough to remember is Steve Alford. He was a tough scorer in college but didn't sniff the NBA. I think Jimmer's way stronger than Alford was and has a better handle to get where he needs to on the court without picks. Getting to where he needs to and offering token defense is what Fredette has to prove he can do.

The guy who makes me think Jimmer may turn out to be a monster at the next level is Steve Nash. Gets it done very efficiently below the rim. Jimmer doesn't have to soar but he does need to be quick to a spot.

[nate33]

I know Lighty is an afterthought, but I think he is one of those do-it-all sg's. He would complement Young off the bench cause he can do a little bit of everything while NY can shoot & D. I also like to throw in situational analysis when I look at prospects as it can paint a picture not simply seen through numbers. Lighty tore his ACL as a prep star and then lost most of his Junior year to a foot injury. He has a strong build and is more athletic than people realize. Probably never a starter, but he will play in the league as a strong rotational player.

Another good call, pc. I think Lighty's been unselfish to a fault. Give him a couple of years, and he could be a shutdown defender at the 2. He's got the size/strength/athleticism combo. No doubt he's an athlete and a high flyer. And he can shoot and pass - probably needs to work on his handle.

I absolutely love Lighty as a college role player but I have serious doubts about his shooting ability. I realize his 3P% has improved dramatically over the years, but I'm not sure how well it'll translate in the pros where he'll have to extend his range and shoot more contested shots. (Right now, he only shoots 3's when wide open. He's open a lot thanks to Sullinger and Buford drawing defensive attention, and Diebler being such a sniper that defenses can't afford to double off of him.) As evidence, I cite his 65% FT%.

[Ed Wood]

Man, Derrick Williams is a lot more athletic than I remember him being. He's consistently been too quick for anybody UCLA puts on him (and UCLA isn't a team of stiffs either, guys like Brendan Lane and and Anthony Stover might not be any good but they are at least pretty mobile) any time he gets a look at the hoop in transition he has dunked the **** out of the ball. He also caught an alley oop that looked like a pass that was sailing out of bounds to me initially. It's hard to get a feel for how tall he is exactly, he's shorter than Stover and Josh Smith, who are both listed at 6'10" and he looks a little taller than the allegedly 6'9" Reeves Nelson (this year's college winner of the Chris Kaman's Hair Memorial "boy's got them serial killer eyes" Award).

Whatever, he's really good. I'd be alright adding him to the pile, particularly if the Wizards land a very high pick and can parlay it into a slightly less high pick for Williams and an additional pick for somebody else like Chris Singleton or Barnes if he slips, or Jordan Hamilton or Honeycutt or whoever, a wing probably. I'm also coming around a little to Jeff Taylor if for whatever reason he slips late in the first round (and Miami's pick is for sale or something). I'm still not sold on him as a shooter but he's a really good defender and what the hell DeMar DeRozan was a top ten pick with the same write up and Taylor (Square Head to his friends) doesn't even look like he's wearing a disguise all the time.

[Ruzious]

Ed, after watching the UCLA game, I don't know if it'll be mathematically possible to trade down for DWill. Now, I see why he's such an efficient scorer. He is a legit 6'9 235 - 240 guy with great run/jump ability, and... he's great finishing the pick and roll. And he's got a very nice touch. If he was just an inch taller, he'd be a young Amare - with the spin moves and aggression - offensively, anyway. It would not shock me if he ends up the 1st pick - though I have him 3rd right now.

I can see why people like Honeycutt. He can make the spectacular play look easy, but I'd stay away. He's too undisciplined, and mistakes seem to be part of the package for him. That's the last the last thing we need. Williams was head and shoulders above everyone else in that game.

[pcbothwel]

^^^ I've been conflicted lately on D. Williams. As my posts pointed to earlier, I am certainly a fan and think he'll be an all-star more than once. He is physically a bigger version of J. Smith...yes...bigger. Smith measured in at 6'7 no shoes, weight: 220, with a 7'0 wingspan. Williams will come in at 6'7.5 - 6'8 no shoes easy and weighing 10+ pounds more with an equal or bigger wingspan.

And trust Ed Wood when he says how surprisingly athletic he is. I see statements on websites saying that is a good jumper "when he gets momentum first" ... BS. Watch him play and you'll see beautiful footwork in the post and a shot that doesnt miss. And if he does miss and doesnt get fouled (very rare), he has on more than a few occasions gotten his own rebound and off two flat feet jumped straight up and "dunked the ****out of the ball".

The big difference between the 2 is that Williams is a much better offensive player in every facet, but he is not quite the defender/rebounder Smith is, which as a 4, could kill us next to McGee. That being said, no one player has impressed me more than Williams (sullinger a close 2nd).

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

One stat I like to follow on college prospects is points-per-shot.

http://espn.go.com/ncb/player/profile?playerId=51405

Sullinger posts a 1.61 right now in PPS. From memory, Carlos Boozer put up somewhere around 1.67. I knew Boozer would score efficiently at the next level. So. will Sullinger.

That said, I have NEVER seen numbers like Derrick Williams is putting up right now.

http://espn.go.com/ncb/player/profile?playerId=45854

Williams' 2.16 PPS is absurdly good. Being a numbers guy I would say he is the best player in this draft and a guaranteed 25 PPG NBA player. He cannot rebound like Griffin but Williams apparently is one of the best shooters around.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

In my dream scenario the Wizards would figure a way to acquire Williams, Fredette, and Faried without giving up McGee, Young, or Wall.