Summer 2012 Free Agents Thread - Part II

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I would rather have Morris Almond and Cartier Martin over Foye, Mason, and Crawford.

Almond's first 3 years in the NBA look remarkably similar to Roger Mason's.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... nro01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... nmo01.html

Roger Mason never had a PER above 7 until he was 27 years old. The Wizards gave him a shot at regular minutes. He helped Washington make the playoffs as the third guard behind Daniels and Stevenson.

Morris Almond only got 17 shots over 4 games. He showed he can defend. I hope he shows why he scored 53 and 51 points in the D-League and that he is a very good shooter. I believe Almond can play and be better than Jordan Crawford. He's not able to create like Jordan but Almond will do all the little things and not jack shots. I think his defense is much improved, too.

I already KNOW Cartier Martin deserves a spot on the team.

The only thing I would like to see the Wizards do besides sign Martin and Almond is to pick up a PG like John Lucas III or Patty Mills. I don't think they need Foye, either, but he is good.

[DCfan88]

I like Courtney Lee and Brandon Rush but I think both of those guy will cost too much. Instead I would like for us to sign either John lucas III, Randy Foye, or Gerald Green. All 3 guys would be solid backup options who could come right in and be an upgrade over what we currently have.

[willbcocks]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wizards-insider/post/wizards-will-play-free-agent-waiting-game/2012/07/02/gJQAyEYDIW_blog.html


Is this accurate. We have more money to spend by getting Okafor and Trevor then we would have if we bought out Lewis.

We don't have more money. Whether or not we had done the trade, if we keep Blatche, we have the exact same amount: the MLE. If, however, we amnesty Blatche, we will have significantly less caproom after the trade than we would have had without the trade.

Next year we'll have much less caproom as a result of the trade.

[payitforward]

I would rather have Morris Almond and Cartier Martin over Foye, Mason, and Crawford. ...

Morris Almond ...showed he can defend... and ...is a very good shooter. I believe Almond can play and be better than Jordan Crawford.

That's not much of a challenge, "better than Crawford". Still, Almond was a good shooter in college, and he has good size. He showed effort on man defense; I didn't see more than that in his limited minutes.

But Almond has been known as a black hole, and I didn't see any improved ability to see the court or pass the ball. Plus, he's old enough that unlikely he has much development left in him. Personally I'd rather have an undrafted FA guard that far back on the bench.

I already KNOW Cartier Martin deserves a spot on the team. ...I would like to see the Wizards ...pick up a PG like John Lucas III or Patty Mills.

Agreed about Cartier Martin. The other guys not so much (Patty Mills maybe...).

[closg00]

Torn over Martin, I would really like to see us:

* Audition Hollis Thompson (who probably has several camp invites)
* Cut Mack (He hasn't been officially picked-up)
* Sign JL III

If we sign Hollis and JL III, we get our 3pt shooter and back-up PG at prices Ted & Ernie should love. Great bang for the buck. Also wouldn't mind a Machado summer audition.

It appears as-though Ernie is attempting to use our mid-level on a vet if these rumors are true about reaching out to Kirk and some others. We have a two -year window to make that 8th seed.

[verbal8]

Foye isn't my first choice, but I think the Wizards need to add a shooter or 2 in free agency. Ideally a back-up PG and a SG with some size to do spot duty as a SF.

I think Patty Mills or John Lucas III would be a good PG addition.
I think Cartier Martin or Morris Almond would be a good option at SG.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I would rather have Morris Almond and Cartier Martin over Foye, Mason, and Crawford. ...

Morris Almond ...showed he can defend... and ...is a very good shooter. I believe Almond can play and be better than Jordan Crawford.

That's not much of a challenge, "better than Crawford". Still, Almond was a good shooter in college, and he has good size. He showed effort on man defense; I didn't see more than that in his limited minutes.

But Almond has been known as a black hole, and I didn't see any improved ability to see the court or pass the ball. Plus, he's old enough that unlikely he has much development left in him. Personally I'd rather have an undrafted FA guard that far back on the bench.

I already KNOW Cartier Martin deserves a spot on the team. ...I would like to see the Wizards ...pick up a PG like John Lucas III or Patty Mills.

Agreed about Cartier Martin. The other guys not so much (Patty Mills maybe...).

That is a real fair assessment, payitforward.

The likelihood of Almond ever being a selfish player again is nil. He is struggling to earn a spot in the NBA. I think playing with a ball-dominant, penetrating, passing PG who has a very weak perimeter game is the ideal situation for Almond. A SG who can hit shots with range off of catch-and-shoot, and one who is big enough to get inside and get to the line is what the Wizards need. Almond just needs to show he can score and defend and be a good teammate. That is the tough part.

Surely, there are many FAs out there, payitforward. I like Morris and want him to make it. I have thought a long time he just needs a break. This could be it.

[payitforward]

The likelihood of Almond ever being a selfish player again is nil. He ...just needs to show he can score and defend and be a good teammate.

...I like Morris and want him to make it. I have thought a long time he just needs a break. This could be it.

In that case, I hope so. But sometimes a guy is a black hole *because* he can't see the court well or pass well.

It's an interesting question -- and not just in basketball, in everything -- whether the best way to get the most out of yourself is to concentrate on maximizing what you're good at, or should one concentrate on minimizing what you're bad at.

[nate33]

I'd be happy to sign Almond or Martin, but I wouldn't be so quick to kick Crawford off the team. Crawford is the only guy besides Wall who has shown any ability to create a shot off the bounce. Wall can't play 48 minutes.

I like John Lucas III as a backup PG.

[Nivek]

Almond might benefit from the kind of tutorial Nick Young got from Flip Saunders and Randy Wittman. Effectively, they reduced Young's decision-making to "shoot if you're open, drive if you have an advantage, pass it back to Wall if you can't do either."

A good niche for him to fill would be to work like hell to be a good defender, and then be that 3&D guy so many teams need.

[VictorPage44]

My point applies from 2006 (the start of the last CBA) onward. That was when the rookie scale was implemented along with the rules that give advantages to the team trying to retain a free agent.

Any free agent who is able to get max or near max money upon completion of their rookie deal will always stay with their existing team. If they want to move, they must first play a fifth season under the Qualifying Offer, when they will be paid much less than a max salary.

The quickest avenue to unrestricted free agency while also maximizing salary potential is to serve out the 4 year rookie contract, sign a 3 year max extension, and then become an unrestricted free agent just at the time when max salaries rise (a 7 year vet max salary is much higher than a 6-year vet max salary).

Ok, so excuse my ignorance, but what does getting traded have to do with any of that?

Seems to me that only covers part of the equation: If a player tries to force a trade when he's a restricted free agent (again correct me if I'm wrong -- I'm not a cap expert).

Still leaves open the possibility for the team to want to trade the player, either for a better situation (Miami Big 3/vs Mike Beasley-- If Beasley had his head on straight, he'd be the PERFECT example) or maybe because the organization cant control the player -- like a Rodman situation. Cousins is as good a candidate as we have right now for that type of scenario, .

It doesnt happen all the time, for obvious reasons, but it's happened before and will happen again. Maybe you were speaking in generalities for emphasis, and I took it the wrong way, but the fact that I can name 15 Hall of Fame bigs who were traded when they still had gas in the tank doesnt speak well for your point.

[DCZards]

I'm much more interested in Foye than Allmond, Martin...or even Mason. Foye is coming off of a pretty good year with the Clips where he benefited from Chris Paul's ability to find the open shooter, especially at the three point line. With Wall delivering the rock, I can see Foye having a similar impact with the Zards. Plus Foye can play both some SG and PG.

Allmond is 27 years old and has yet to show he's an NBA player and Martin's inconsistency scares me. While I like Mason's vet leadership, deep ball shooting and price, I consider him a couple of notches below Foye.

Unlike many of you, I'm not so eager to give up on J. Crawford. Yeah, his shot selection sucks and there's some question as to whether it will ever improve, but I love Jordan's ability to create his own shot, his toughness and competitive spirit, and his willingness to take (and make) clutch shots.

I think there's a role for Crawford as a sixth man, giving the Zards some instant offense off the bench.

[VictorPage44]

I agree, Crawford has a lot of tools, but his mentality is off. He has big time tunnel vision, and most of the time doesnt even see the other guys on the court. How much of that is him and how much of it is the wretched offense we ran last year? I think it's mostly him, but I would like to give him, and all the young guys, another year, with a solid team around them, to show what they're made of.

[Severn Hoos]

Holy Cow - with all the trade talk swirling around, I started looking at other teams' cap situations for 2013 and 2014. Based on a quick scan, it looks like there could be as many as 20 or more max contract offers available, with some teams having room for 2 max deals. As of right now, Utah's committed salary for 2013-14 is....$0,000,000. (Obviously this will change with the Marvin Williams trade, re-signing Millsap if they can, draft picks, etc.)

And, are there 20 Max-worthy Free Agents next summer? umm..... no.

Which means that those FAs who are even remotely close to being worth a Max deal (let's say, for the sake of argument, Danny Granger) will have their pick from among many suitors. And as Nivekevin has pointed out many times, that means that non-basketball considerations will make the deal: Endorsement opportunities, State sales tax, locale/climate, makeup of the roster. It will be like college recruiting all over again. And, frankly, it's hard to see the Wiz coming out on top in those considerations unless Wall makes the Rose-like Quantum Leap (loved that show) next year. Otherwise, the money burning a hole in the owners pockets will flow downhill to lesser players, whether they're older (Marion, Ginobili), or just not that good (Devin Harris, SJax). There will be some really bad deals inked next summer.

With that as the landscape, there seemed to be several options for the Wiz (pre-trade):

1. Lay low and wait out the storm: Buy out Shard, amnesty/trade Dray by Summer 2013, and then.... do nothing. Or at least, don't go crazy. Wait patiently for the Lux Tax penalties to kick in and other teams to panic in 2014-2015.

2. The Signor Ugarte approach: Same as #1, but then try to be the back-room broker for other teams who are chasing the dream of FA glory. Take on the BOYDs and get value in return. Worked well in the double-Hinrich trades, go for more of the same?

3. Drunken Sailor: Same as #1, but jump into the 2013 bidding wars. Probably the worst of all outcomes for the Wiz.

4. The KG-wannabe approach: Hope to find a disgruntled superstar who wants to come play for you and has at least some leverage to force his current team to make a deal. It'll cost you some young talent & draft picks, but for the right guy it's worth it. Now finding that guy can be tricky...

None of them look like great options to me. If there was a real chance of being a frontrunner for a top-line FA this summer or next, I would want them to pursue that approach. But considering how discretion is the better part of valor, realism trumps being stupid about it.

I like the BOYD approach, and fully understand that outright signings are just one way to use cap space. But getting mid- to late 1st round picks means typically adding talent in the margins. It's great as far as it goes, and those assets can then become valuable in future trades for true stars. But it's also not as if they would be adding that championship piece in a BOYD or similar situation.

So what is the conclusion? My guess is that the team felt they had a much better shot at getting a star/superstar by growing one rather than chasing one. Obviously Wall, and to a lesser extent possibly Beal and Seraphin, have All-Star potential. Apparently they placed more value on developing that in-house young talent over acquiring outside talent. And it is as unfortunate as it was obvious that the Romper Room approach of the past two years was doing very little for Wall's development. Letting him be the leader of a cast of true professionals will make him a better PG 3 years from now than if he was leading the Kiddie Korps, or if his squad was simply overmatched virtually every night.

[I guess this should be back in the trade thread, huh?] It's not that I'm in favor of the trade - I said so at the time, and still think it was a lot to pay to get to that goal of a professional, competitive team to send on the floor every night. But as I watch the FA landscape play out this week, I can see more and more the thinking - and maybe even the wisdom - of the Front Office in the Okafor/Ariza deal. And for once, I'm looking forward to a season with a real chance of being a - dare I say - good team.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The likelihood of Almond ever being a selfish player again is nil. He ...just needs to show he can score and defend and be a good teammate.

...I like Morris and want him to make it. I have thought a long time he just needs a break. This could be it.

In that case, I hope so. But sometimes a guy is a black hole *because* he can't see the court well or pass well.

It's an interesting question -- and not just in basketball, in everything -- whether the best way to get the most out of yourself is to concentrate on maximizing what you're good at, or should one concentrate on minimizing what you're bad at.

It is a great question, payitforward. This reminds me of a song my dad has quoted the lyrics of to me many times:

(Accentuate the Positive)

http://www.lyricsdepot.com/Johnny-merce ... itive.html

You've got to accentuate the positive
Eliminate the negative
And latch on to the affirmative
Don't mess with Mister In-Between

You've got to spread joy up to the maximum
Bring gloom down to the minimum
Have faith or pandemonium's
Liable to walk upon the scene

I struggle greatly at times, but I think balance is the key to life...

I don't know for Morris Almond what he focuses on. If I were in his shoes, I would probably want to adapt like that song. IMO, that would be to play up my shooting, which is my strength. Work on ball handling and defense really hard to eliminate any real or perceived weakness in my game. I would work my butt off getting as fit/strong/flexible, etc that I could. I would be a real positive guy and the best teammate in the world. I would share the ball, set the pick, and keep it moving. Having no real weakness would be the goal as far as basketball ability goes. If I were an NBA player, I would invest in folks that can assist my physical and mental preparation. A great sports psychologist can help with confidence and perceptual approaches to the game. Something like MMA training or whatever great trainers like Denver's can help with the physical approach. I would get the strongest core, the tightest handles, and the best plyometric work in possible. Balance out the shooting with everything else.

There are many ways to help in life. I look at NBA rosters and see "team guys" on rosters. Relationships matter a lot. There are a few superstars and a bunch of guys who are fortunate to be in the league. If you are not a superstar, a lot of luck, timing, and situations/circumstances dictate who gets jobs. If you are liked and fit in that matters. Morris is in a decent place to make it. People compare Brad Beal to Ray Allen. I bet Morris has heard those same comparisons before his career stalled a bit. The Wizards are great for rehabilitating careers. Roger Mason Jr., Cartier Martin, James Singleton, Othyus Jeffers, etc. all can play. Washington helped them. Morris is the same kind of player as those guys.

payitforward, I think being a generalist and not having many weakness is important but to really keep a job in the NBA, Morris is going to have to have a go to calling card. That would probably be his scoring efficiency. He is not the most efficient guy, but he is indeed a prolific volume scorer who is pretty efficient. IIRC he is the #1 all-time D-League scorer. I think he's better than Jordan Crawford given the green light.

[nate33]

My point applies from 2006 (the start of the last CBA) onward. That was when the rookie scale was implemented along with the rules that give advantages to the team trying to retain a free agent.

Any free agent who is able to get max or near max money upon completion of their rookie deal will always stay with their existing team. If they want to move, they must first play a fifth season under the Qualifying Offer, when they will be paid much less than a max salary.

The quickest avenue to unrestricted free agency while also maximizing salary potential is to serve out the 4 year rookie contract, sign a 3 year max extension, and then become an unrestricted free agent just at the time when max salaries rise (a 7 year vet max salary is much higher than a 6-year vet max salary).

Ok, so excuse my ignorance, but what does getting traded have to do with any of that?

Seems to me that only covers part of the equation: If a player tries to force a trade when he's a restricted free agent (again correct me if I'm wrong -- I'm not a cap expert).

Still leaves open the possibility for the team to want to trade the player, either for a better situation (Miami Big 3/vs Mike Beasley-- If Beasley had his head on straight, he'd be the PERFECT example) or maybe because the organization cant control the player -- like a Rodman situation. Cousins is as good a candidate as we have right now for that type of scenario, .

It doesnt happen all the time, for obvious reasons, but it's happened before and will happen again. Maybe you were speaking in generalities for emphasis, and I took it the wrong way, but the fact that I can name 15 Hall of Fame bigs who were traded when they still had gas in the tank doesnt speak well for your point.

Well sure. IF Cousins demands a trade and IF he wears out his welcome in Sacramento and IF they don't think that his production on the court outweighs the headaches off the court and IF Cousins wants to come in Washington, then, MAYBE we can work out a deal. But that's a heck of a lot of if's. Way to many for it to be a viable strategy.

The truth is, any GOOD big man stays with his team for a minimum of 7 years. Name one GOOD big man who has left his team within his first 7 years in the league under the 2006 CBA system.

If Cousins is obtainable, chances are it's because he isn't very good.

[Hoopalotta]

.....

2. The Signor Ugarte approach: Same as #1, but then try to be the back-room broker for other teams who are chasing the dream of FA glory. Take on the BOYDs and get value in return. Worked well in the double-Hinrich trades, go for more of the same?

....

I like the BOYD approach, and fully understand that outright signings are just one way to use cap space. But getting mid- to late 1st round picks means typically adding talent in the margins. It's great as far as it goes, and those assets can then become valuable in future trades for true stars. But it's also not as if they would be adding that championship piece in a BOYD or similar situation.

Solid post and reasoning throughout, Sev. I cut out these bits only to underscore, as you're aware, that BOYD's are subject to supply and demand as well. So, the ubiquitous cap space you were talking about degrades the likelihood of much value coming back to us as there's only so many teams that need to cut salary and a fair number of partners that might be interested in taking it back. Not to say that nothing would be there, but a lot of bad salary has already expired or been amnestied.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Well sure. IF Cousins demands a trade and IF he wears out his welcome in Sacramento and IF they don't think that his production on the court outweighs the headaches off the court and IF Cousins wants to come in Washington, then, MAYBE we can work out a deal. But that's a heck of a lot of if's. Way to many for it to be a viable strategy.

The truth is, any GOOD big man stays with his team for a minimum of 7 years. Name one GOOD big man who has left his team within his first 7 years in the league under the 2006 CBA system.

If Cousins is obtainable, chances are it's because he isn't very good.

Cousins is among the top rebounders in the NBA. Imagine Andray Blatche being a tremendous rebounder and very physical. He is very good already, nate. DeMarcus made a dramatic leap from year one to year two. Statistically, he improved in FG%, FT%, rebounding, blocks, steals, and turnovers. His PER went from 14.6 to 21.7 and his WS/48 went from .022 to .104. His numbers for a 21-year old player are phenomenal.

To become a superstar in the NBA I think Cousins must reduce his fouls and also improve his eFG% from .449 to about .500.

nate, I agree with you that good bigs remain with their teams. The only way the Wizards will get him is if he wears out his welcome. I think enough Kings losses could cause him to vent and make it so that he is traded.

[Severn Hoos]

.....

2. The Signor Ugarte approach: Same as #1, but then try to be the back-room broker for other teams who are chasing the dream of FA glory. Take on the BOYDs and get value in return. Worked well in the double-Hinrich trades, go for more of the same?

....

I like the BOYD approach, and fully understand that outright signings are just one way to use cap space. But getting mid- to late 1st round picks means typically adding talent in the margins. It's great as far as it goes, and those assets can then become valuable in future trades for true stars. But it's also not as if they would be adding that championship piece in a BOYD or similar situation.

Solid post and reasoning throughout, Sev. I cut out these bits only to underscore, as you're aware, that BOYD's are subject to supply and demand as well. So, the ubiquitous cap space you were talking about degrades the likelihood of much value coming back to us as there's only so many teams that need to cut salary and a fair number of partners that might be interested in taking it back. Not to say that nothing would be there, but a lot of bad salary has already expired or been amnestied.

Thanks, Hoopa - and I see your similar post re: the Jazz in another thread. You're right, I think they're more interested in developing Favors and other young guys than chasing the dream that anyone not named "Jimmer" would willingly sign in Salt Lake. And we should be more interested in having the best John Wall we can get in 2015 than in hoping (dreaming) to add a marginal star but possibly retarding Wall's growth in the meantime.

And you make a good point about the devaluing of the BOYDs. In fact, I think the lesson of the Hinrich deal is that the demand goes up (and supply is lower) when teams are facing the Trade deadline relative to summer frenzies like right now. The second Hinrich deal was actually better for us than the first. (Seraphin may turn out to be the better player than Singleton in the end, but the second deal got us the #18 pick, plus a 1st rounder from the previous year, and a serviceable vet. The first trade got us the #17 pick.)

And this is the last glimmer of hope from the Okaforiza trade - by this coming Feb, there may be teams desperate for a big man or a willing wing defender. Those guys may actually have value, as opposed to just trying to unload the salaries. And there will be fewer options for those teams to choose from, since the players will no longer be FAs.

That's my hope, at least. In the mean time, Go Wiz!

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Sev, I stopped worrying about the Okaforiza deal when it dawned on me those guys are still tradeable assets. EG took them on and if the Wizards do better they will be associated with success. Things change quickly. Okafor could come in healthy and Ariza motivated. Trades bring opportunities. Nene really impressed in DC after his image had taken a few hits in Denver.

--I think Denver is going to revamp the image of Javale McGee to where no matter what they re-sign him for, they will be able to get value for him.

--Washington has had players like DeShawn Stevenson help other teams win. DeShawn had the most miserable season a SG could have IMO before he went to Dallas. I could very easily see Andray Blatche coming off the bench for a team like Portland or LAL and contributing. He would probably start on the Bobcats. Not saying Blatche or DeShawn or even Javale are good players, just that they can contribute.

Okafor might be someone who contributes on the court, in the locker room, and ultimately, as a trade piece. That, or he could play well enough to make Nene a guy the Wizards get value for in a trade.

I am concerned about playing time and minutes and Wittman coaching the talent up, but I do think the talent has improved on the Wizards.