Predict the Wizards Record '14-'15 season

[keynote]

keynote, I agree - feeling some irrational exuberance coming on...

I also had the Wiz as the 3rd seed, and I'll keep it there - think they'll be behind Chicago & Cleveland, but ahead of the Raptors and the rusted shell of the Heat.

I was down for 47 wins, but will bump it to 49 wins - falling just short of the magical 50 win plateau, but still be best win total in decades. And I really would give them a decent shot at the ECF, all depending on the playoff matchups.

Don't get sucked into the preseason hype. EVERY team looks awesome in training camp. Like the great orator Mike Tyson once said: "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."

This team is still depending heavily on the health of Wall and Beal, and on either Pierce continuing to turn back the clock, or for Porter to go from being completely worthless last year to being a viable starter this year. Also, the East added Love, Rose and Gasol while losing nobody of note, so the competition just got better.

Bah! Get thee behind me! I ain't letting you steal my joy.

[dckingsfan]

After winning the prediction sweepstakes last year (along with one other of us I think?), I'm staying out of it this year.

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[dckingsfan]

Note: If you share a win record, tie is determined by ECS

Wins

57 - deneem4
56 - jeffsays
55 - leswizards, TheBabyMaker, TheBlackCzar
54 - Wizardspride, stevemcqueen1
53 - dangermouse, Hidden Eye, Zonkerbl
52 - CntOutSmrtCrazy, AFM, hands11, MOrgil, barelyawake, JWizmentality, MarcoPolo, DANNYLANDOVER
51 - FreeBalling, sfam, diaboliQ_Mo, Higga, bgroban, Bleacher Report, keynote
50 - nuposse04, 2Mas, TheKingOfVa360, CobraCommander, DCZards, WallToWall, jivelikenice, Higga, Wall34
49 - thricethefun, gesa2, BarnabyJones, Jimmy Recard, blazinskillz, SuperBook, Severn Hoos
48 - miller31time, KevinFCheng, jmrosenth, long suffrin' boulez fan, McFilthy, Illmatic12, Kanyewest, dandridge 10, nate33, GhostsOfGil, pineappleheadindc
47 - DCKingsFan, The Fax, Jay81, Nigel Tufnel, The Fax, ESPN, Chaos Revenant, Dark Faze, fishercob, Dat2U
46 - penbeast0, montestewart, DaRealHibachi, mohammed10, Induveca, noworriesinmd, wermolwermol777
45 - Ruzious, Nivek, J-Ves, Earth2Ted
44 - MJG, verbal8
43 - Dat2U, queridiculo, TGW
42 - FAH1223, Chocolate City Jordanaire
40 - BigA

ECS

1st -
2nd - leswizards, deneem4, stevemcqueen1, bgroban, MarcoPolo
3rd - miller31time, CntOutSmrtCrazy, 2Mas, FreeBalling, hands11, McFilthy, sfam, BarnabyJones, Illmatic12, JWizmentality, Bleacher Report, Severn Hoos, cammac, DANNYLANDOVER, keynote, Dark Faze, SuperBook
4th - gesa2, DCZards, J-Ves, montestewart, The Fax, mohammed10, dandridge 10, nuposse04, nate33, ESPN, GhostsOfGil, Zonkerbl, pineappleheadindc, wermolwermol777
5th - DCKingsFan, verbal8, long suffrin' boulez fan, Earth2Ted, noworriesinmd, Dat2U
6th - Nivek
7th - Chocolate City Jordanaire
8th - BigA

[payitforward]

Point of clarification, my point about the offseason was that they were not in position to ADD players in needed spots without the departure of some combination of free agents. This turned out to be the case: they added Pierce, Humphries and Blair while Ariza and Booker departed.

I wrote w/o going back to look up what you said (or what I said for that matter) and imprecisely as well, no doubt. What I remembered you writing was something along the lines of "If I was GM I'd probably just re-sign Gortat and Ariza" and that I had more or less the same thought.

I'm sure I can find the post, but you probably remember it more clearly than I. Am I mis-quoting you? Maybe I read it wrong at the time, for that matter.

I thought we were saying much the same thing back then, which was that the offseason plan that made sense was to re-sign Gortat, Ariza and Booker, and then go shopping with the MLE for another big. I never envisioned a complete status quo offseason. I always figured they'd add someone with the MLE.

Yes, but my (and maybe your?) unspoken assumption was that those re-signings and adding a player via the MLE, would mean an even tighter, longer-term noose around the future. Instead, they went off in an entirely different direction! And it was one I didn't envision at all.

Ernie shortened salaries going forward -- instead of adding to them (Gortat being the only move in the other direction). And he made a bet on the odd combination of a) still-productive veterans signed short-term to keep us good short-term, and b) rolling the dice on being able to sign Durant at the exact moment those short-termers expire.

Who knows, maybe that Durant thing is wired? The NBA is an entertainment business; lots of stuff happens that we have no idea of. OTOH, if it doesn't happen... well, who knows about that either?

My point was to give Ted & Ernie props for an imaginative set of moves. Pretty different from, and much better than, the previous off-season -- signing Eric Maynor and Al Harrington, and causing the team to be so vulnerable to injury that we had to burn assets unnecessarily to acquire Gortat.

[payitforward]

keynote, I agree - feeling some irrational exuberance coming on...

I also had the Wiz as the 3rd seed, and I'll keep it there - think they'll be behind Chicago & Cleveland, but ahead of the Raptors and the rusted shell of the Heat.

I was down for 47 wins, but will bump it to 49 wins - falling just short of the magical 50 win plateau, but still be best win total in decades. And I really would give them a decent shot at the ECF, all depending on the playoff matchups.

Don't get sucked into the preseason hype. EVERY team looks awesome in training camp. Like the great orator Mike Tyson once said: "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."

This team is still depending heavily on the health of Wall and Beal, and on either Pierce continuing to turn back the clock, or for Porter to go from being completely worthless last year to being a viable starter this year. Also, the East added Love, Rose and Gasol while losing nobody of note, so the competition just got better.

"No battle plan lasts beyond first contact with the enemy."

As to training camp hype -- every year the players seem to say "TC is much more focussed this year."

[payitforward]

After winning the prediction sweepstakes last year (along with one other of us I think?), I'm staying out of it this year.

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

(Took away your color. Too bad for you)

Fine. I'm in -- put me down for 58 wins. If we make it, I won't have to share my title.

[WallWithTheDime]

Put me down for 50 wins

[montestewart]

"No battle plan lasts beyond first contact with the enemy."

That's Mike Tyson too, right? He's so quotable.

[dckingsfan]

Wow, Helmuth von Moltke quoted almost and not in the Wittman thread - I would have thought the two were equals

[hands11]

Hump is a dime a dozen, you can find guys like that anywhere, cough DeJuan Blair cough....

What I'm basically saying is I'd of swapped Humphries salary slot for VC then added a cheaper big in free agency. The guy I liked was Anthony Tolliver ... had a much better season than Hump... plays much better D and shot 41% from 3 last year.

Two other minimum vet bigs I liked... Kenyon Martin & Josh Harrellson. Either would have been a better choice than keeping K-Sera, and a lot cheaper too.

Vince backing up Beal would have been sweet and Tolliver would have been a nice add. Vince is still productive at his age and have a great RPM 4.48. That would have been awesome. MEM signed him for 3 years. Dude will be 40 when his contract runs out at $4,264,057 So its not all rosy with signing Vince.

Maybe they just didnt want to add a 3 year for that much and can still find someone on a shorter deal to play vet back up SG. Which they do have Webster to do right now. And maybe the can trade him for a shorter deal.

I can see why they didnt go after Vince given the roster they have already.

Anyway, look like we need an updated chart DC. Those averages are probably up from last time.

[WallWithTheDime]

We can say all day how we could have traded for Vince Carter. I watched my fair share of Mavericks games ( league pass) and can say he was great off the bench for a scoring punch. I think part of that is how the Dallas system offensively is set, and how he was the main man for scoring off the bench..would have loved to have him, but then again that cuts into our young guys minutes i.e glen rice, and maybe porter. We have to let them play. Also with the Humphries/ Blair thing, you can find those guys in the league everywhere, but can you honestly say this bench doesn't look better then last years which ranked the worst bench in the league.

[Nivek]

Yes, but my (and maybe your?) unspoken assumption was that those re-signings and adding a player via the MLE, would mean an even tighter, longer-term noose around the future. Instead, they went off in an entirely different direction! And it was one I didn't envision at all.

This is a good point -- I fully expected them to punt max cap space in 2016 based on how they've operated in the past. Their strategy was something I could envision A team doing, but it's fair to say that I did not think a Grunfeld-led Wizards would do that. In both public comments and private conversations, folks in the front office have said the equivalent of: "Cap space doesn't win games" as the reason why they'd spend up cap room (or potential cap room) on less than great players. That reason usually was paired with something like: Player X isn't coming here anyway.

Ernie shortened salaries going forward -- instead of adding to them (Gortat being the only move in the other direction). And he made a bet on the odd combination of a) still-productive veterans signed short-term to keep us good short-term, and b) rolling the dice on being able to sign Durant at the exact moment those short-termers expire.

Who knows, maybe that Durant thing is wired? The NBA is an entertainment business; lots of stuff happens that we have no idea of. OTOH, if it doesn't happen... well, who knows about that either?

My point was to give Ted & Ernie props for an imaginative set of moves. Pretty different from, and much better than, the previous off-season -- signing Eric Maynor and Al Harrington, and causing the team to be so vulnerable to injury that we had to burn assets unnecessarily to acquire Gortat.

Agree with all this, though I would have added "and Miller" to that last sentence.

While I do think they've had a good offseason, I still don't have much confidence in Grunfeld as the team's GM. It looks like he's going to have PLENTY of time to show whether he's improved as a GM. Or not.

[Higga]

Note: If you share a win record, tie is determined by ECS

Wins

57 - deneem4
56 - jeffsays
55 - leswizards, TheBabyMaker, TheBlackCzar
54 - Wizardspride, stevemcqueen1
53 - dangermouse, Hidden Eye, Zonkerbl
52 - CntOutSmrtCrazy, AFM, hands11, MOrgil, barelyawake, JWizmentality, MarcoPolo, DANNYLANDOVER
51 - FreeBalling, sfam, diaboliQ_Mo, Higga, bgroban, Bleacher Report, keynote
50 - nuposse04, 2Mas, TheKingOfVa360, CobraCommander, DCZards, WallToWall, jivelikenice, Higga, Wall34
49 - thricethefun, gesa2, BarnabyJones, Jimmy Recard, blazinskillz, SuperBook, Severn Hoos
48 - miller31time, KevinFCheng, jmrosenth, long suffrin' boulez fan, McFilthy, Illmatic12, Kanyewest, dandridge 10, nate33, GhostsOfGil, pineappleheadindc
47 - DCKingsFan, The Fax, Jay81, Nigel Tufnel, The Fax, ESPN, Chaos Revenant, Dark Faze, fishercob, Dat2U
46 - penbeast0, montestewart, DaRealHibachi, mohammed10, Induveca, noworriesinmd, wermolwermol777
45 - Ruzious, Nivek, J-Ves, Earth2Ted
44 - MJG, verbal8
43 - Dat2U, queridiculo, TGW
42 - FAH1223, Chocolate City Jordanaire
40 - BigA

ECS

1st -
2nd - leswizards, deneem4, stevemcqueen1, bgroban, MarcoPolo
3rd - miller31time, CntOutSmrtCrazy, 2Mas, FreeBalling, hands11, McFilthy, sfam, BarnabyJones, Illmatic12, JWizmentality, Bleacher Report, Severn Hoos, cammac, DANNYLANDOVER, keynote, Dark Faze, SuperBook
4th - gesa2, DCZards, J-Ves, montestewart, The Fax, mohammed10, dandridge 10, nuposse04, nate33, ESPN, GhostsOfGil, Zonkerbl, pineappleheadindc, wermolwermol777
5th - DCKingsFan, verbal8, long suffrin' boulez fan, Earth2Ted, noworriesinmd, Dat2U
6th - Nivek
7th - Chocolate City Jordanaire
8th - BigA

Put me down for 3rd in the ECS.

[tsvqt]

54-28 (Eastern Conference Finals)

[tsvqt]

Oh, and a 2nd Place finish in the ECS!!

[FreeBalling]

I wonder how the wins record is trending on Google today.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using RealGM Forums mobile app

[dckingsfan]

After winning the prediction sweepstakes last year (along with one other of us I think?), I'm staying out of it this year.

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

(Took away your color. No longer too bad for you)

Fine. I'm in -- put me down for 58 wins. If we make it, I won't have to share my title.

And ECS prediction?

[deneem4]

change me to 1st in the conference ion see irving snd rose being healthier than wall...

[noworriesinmd]

Did anyone listen to the RealGM podcast about our Division. They really don't think the Wiz will do much and they were debating if Randy was the worst coach in the NBA...wow. I didn't see that coming.

I'm definitely going to stick with my 5th seed prediction. They are saying the elite in the Conference are Toronto, Cleveland, and Chicago. Everyone will just be fodder.

[Sluggerface]

Did anyone listen to the RealGM podcast about our Division. They really don't think the Wiz will do much and they were debating if Randy was the worst coach in the NBA...wow. I didn't see that coming.

I'm definitely going to stick with my 5th seed prediction. They are saying the elite in the Conference are Toronto, Cleveland, and Chicago. Everyone will just be fodder.

It's nothing new. Hell, there are numerous people picking Charlotte over Washington even though the Hornets don't have a single proven big outside of Al Jefferson. Number Fires even put the George-less/Stephenson-less pacers ahead of us, LOL.