Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread

[nate33]

I see little reason to stretch Mahinmi and lose another $5 mil + off our cap annually in the Wall era.

Especially to resign a declining Ariza.

I would also avoid adding two non-spacers in Noel / Clarke. They wouldn't be able to play together.

I think using the MLE is in play however. I would lean towards addressing the F position and finding an Ariza replacement.

You are right about stretching Mahinmi. It's unnecessary. Better to force Ariza to sign for less, or replace him with someone else.

I think Noel and Clarke can work here because they wouldn't play together all that much, Bryant can space the floor, and I believe Clarke will eventually develop a jumper.

Maybe I'm too fixated on Clarke, but I really believe that, other than PG, the key position to acquire in today's game is a defensively versatile PF who can switch 1 through 5 while still rebounding like a true big man. Obviously, you want that guy to be able to stretch the floor on offense as well, and I agree that Clarke is a question mark on that front, but I think it's worth a shot.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Portis will end up winning with the Lakers or the Clippers.

Portis has a similar game to Juwan Howard. He's a reliable scorer. He's got a mean streak. He's just not a great athlete.

Portis would do well replacing Cousins on Golden State.

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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Jabari's value has gone way down. He was a failure with Chicago and - despite a couple of good games has not played well with Washington. And he should probably drop 10 lbs - maybe more if he wants to show he can play the 3. And remember, he's had 2 ACL tears. I think he'll sign a make-do 1 year contract for about one quarter of what he signed with Chicago. It could be with Washington - maybe not. Frankly, I'd have to be convinced that he's going to lose the weight before I'd sign him.

I think they have to re-sign Portis. You can't end up with nothing from the Otto trade, and Portis is a respectable still young player who fits in today's NBA. He has value, and he won't break the bank. I'd guess he could be had for a 4/40 deal. And he's an RFA, so the Wiz will likely match anything that's not crazy.

You both are going WAYYY overboard about Portis.
1) "You can't end up with nothing from the Otto trade" is a terrible motive. The trade is done. Sinking in money to a player doesnt somehow change the value.
2) Portis is Center, and an RFA... who has shown to be a somewhat effective, albeit limited player.

Look at the amount of fringe starting Centers in the market. Dedmon, KOQ, WCS, Justin Patton, Udoh, Pachulia, Chandler, Noel, Zubac, Thomas Bryant, Jordan Bell, Birch...
You then top that off with this amount of Bigs in this draft: Fernando, Bassey, Bol, Gafford, Hayes, Porter, and Goga.

Last year, Len got 2/8.5M, KOQ got 1/4.5M, and Noel / Greg Monroe both signed for the Minimum.

No way Portis gets more than a 2/10M deal... 2/15M at MOST.


.... And no, I dont want Parker for anything more than 5M per.

Portis obviously isn't ideal, but all of the veteran centers you mentioned other than him and Bryant have one thing in common - they're not 3 point shooting threats - with the possible exception of Dedmon - who probably will get paid and is 5 or 6 years older than Portis. For the season, Portis is averaging 20 points and 11 reboundes per 36 minutes and making 39% of his 3's on 5 attempts per 36. Even at 54% TS%, that has value, and at his age - some improvement should be expected. And several of the players you mentioned are dinosaurs about ready for retirement.

Portis and Bryant are 23 and 21 years old. They are as you astutely pointed out, Ruzious, very good three point shooters

The Wizards need to keep both at reasonable contracts.

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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

As long as Scott Brooks coaches this team I am going to be skeptical and cynical about any player development.



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[NYG]

Which free agents are the Wizards likely to bring back and what kind of contract are you interested in?

[verbal8]

Which free agents are the Wizards likely to bring back and what kind of contract are you interested in?

Bryant should be the team's top target to retain. He does seem like the type of player a savvy team may throw some money at to fill a need.

I think Portis is pretty likely to be resigned. He is a restricted FA, so that should keep the price somewhat reasonable.

I think Satorsky is resigned if the price isn't too high. If some team convinces themselves he is a super-sub type he could get overpaid in free agency. It may also come down to years as much as money. I wouldn't mind the Wizards admittedly overpaying for a a shorter deal and/or some team control - however EG never goes that route.

Howard will only stay if he opts in. I think he probably will opt out, if just to control his destination.

Dekker could also stay at a reasonable salary - above the Vet minimum, but below the room MLE.

Wesley Johnson scares me a bit, he shouldn't be resigned other than on a vet minimum deal. However it seems like a scenario where EG could panic and throw some money at him.

Parker is another player where EG may seriously overpay. No one will give him the $20 million he made this year, but that deal means EG could very easily bid against himself using "Non-Bird" rights.

Assuming Ariza doesn't want to stay at a discount, I think he has more mutual interest with an established play-off team.
Green may stay or look for a contender. I think he is looking at the Vet min - pretty much anywhere. If the Lakers still lack depth, that might be a potential destination.

[Dark Faze]

Are we sure Portis isn't a PF?

Yes. Ask Chicago fans. You think he can't defend at C, watch him try to defend in space. Also he has more offensive functionality as a stretch 5 than oversized 4 who is limited skill wise.

Well Dwight is going to be back and probably Bryant so we need to figure out what we're doing here.

[nate33]

Which free agents are the Wizards likely to bring back and what kind of contract are you interested in?

Bryant should be the team's top target to retain. He does seem like the type of player a savvy team may throw some money at to fill a need.

I think Portis is pretty likely to be resigned. He is a restricted FA, so that should keep the price somewhat reasonable.

I think Satorsky is resigned if the price isn't too high. If some team convinces themselves he is a super-sub type he could get overpaid in free agency. It may also come down to years as much as money. I wouldn't mind the Wizards admittedly overpaying for a a shorter deal and/or some team control - however EG never goes that route.

Howard will only stay if he opts in. I think he probably will opt out, if just to control his destination.

Dekker could also stay at a reasonable salary - above the Vet minimum, but below the room MLE.

Wesley Johnson scares me a bit, he shouldn't be resigned other than on a vet minimum deal. However it seems like a scenario where EG could panic and throw some money at him.

Parker is another player where EG may seriously overpay. No one will give him the $20 million he made this year, but that deal means EG could very easily bid against himself using "Non-Bird" rights.

Assuming Ariza doesn't want to stay at a discount, I think he has more mutual interest with an established play-off team.
Green may stay or look for a contender. I think he is looking at the Vet min - pretty much anywhere. If the Lakers still lack depth, that might be a potential destination.

I agree with most of this, but a few minor points of contention:

- I wouldn't say that Portis being resigned is "likely". I think it's possible, depending on the price, but the Wizards have very little salary flexibility to work with. Bryant is a much higher priority, and Sato has to be a priority because there is no other PG on the roster until Wall gets back in April. For now, I'll say that the Wizards will surely extend Portis the $3.6M qualifying offer to retain his RFA rights, but they have to have a number in their head that is too much to pay. If someone comes along and offers $12M or so, I think he walks. I personally wouldn't sign him for anything more than $5M or so.

- On Dekker, I'm not so sure he does make more than the vet minimum. I'd certainly resign him for that, because a vet minimum slot costs no more than $1.3M toward our cap and luxtax figure. But paying him much more is going to be difficult. The fact is, we need to sign a starting SF and a starting PF before we worry about a backup forward. Obviously, it will depend on the market for his services. I think the first question to ask is whether or not we extend the qualifying offer of $3.9M for him. I don't think we do; which makes him an unrestricted free agent.

I laid out much of this in the original post in this thread. Factoring just Wall, Beal, Mahinmi, Howard, Brown and our draft pick, the payroll is already $93M. That leaves roughly $39M for everyone else. Sato and Bryant are priorities and may cost $15M combined. That leaves maybe $20M for our starting SF and our starting PF, and $4M more for the end of bench guys on vet minimum contracts. I don't think Portis is a starting caliber player at either of those positions, so I'd rather not spend that money on him.

And much to the chagrin of Dat2U, PIF and others, I think it's all but certain that the Wizards will prioritize retaining Ariza. I just hope he costs something like $7M and not $13M. It's maddening for a team with zero chance at a 2nd round playoff appearance will spend 7 figures on a 34-year-old vet, but that's the way Ted rolls.

[DCZards]

Jabari's value has gone way down. He was a failure with Chicago and - despite a couple of good games has not played well with Washington. And he should probably drop 10 lbs - maybe more if he wants to show he can play the 3. And remember, he's had 2 ACL tears. I think he'll sign a make-do 1 year contract for about one quarter of what he signed with Chicago. It could be with Washington - maybe not. Frankly, I'd have to be convinced that he's going to lose the weight before I'd sign him.

I think they have to re-sign Portis. You can't end up with nothing from the Otto trade, and Portis is a respectable still young player who fits in today's NBA. He has value, and he won't break the bank. I'd guess he could be had for a 4/40 deal. And he's an RFA, so the Wiz will likely match anything that's not crazy.

You both are going WAYYY overboard about Portis.
1) "You can't end up with nothing from the Otto trade" is a terrible motive. The trade is done. Sinking in money to a player doesnt somehow change the value.
2) Portis is Center, and an RFA... who has shown to be a somewhat effective, albeit limited player.

Look at the amount of fringe starting Centers in the market. Dedmon, KOQ, WCS, Justin Patton, Udoh, Pachulia, Chandler, Noel, Zubac, Thomas Bryant, Jordan Bell, Birch...
You then top that off with this amount of Bigs in this draft: Fernando, Bassey, Bol, Gafford, Hayes, Porter, and Goga.

Last year, Len got 2/8.5M, KOQ got 1/4.5M, and Noel / Greg Monroe both signed for the Minimum.

No way Portis gets more than a 2/10M deal... 2/15M at MOST.


.... And no, I dont want Parker for anything more than 5M per.

Portis obviously isn't ideal, but all of the veteran centers you mentioned other than him and Bryant have one thing in common - they're not 3 point shooting threats - with the possible exception of Dedmon - who probably will get paid and is 5 or 6 years older than Portis. For the season, Portis is averaging 20 points and 11 reboundes per 36 minutes and making 39% of his 3's on 5 attempts per 36. Even at 54% TS%, that has value, and at his age - some improvement should be expected. And several of the players you mentioned are dinosaurs about ready for retirement.

I think the Zards should try to re-sign Portis...for the right price of course. Bobby is likely to get offers closer to $10M a year than $5M a year. I could see re-signing him for something like a 4/40M deal.

Portis is a very good offensive player. He'll average around 16pts, 8rebs a game as either a backup or starter. Those are solid #s. And his 3pt shooting will help spread the floor for teammates. Yes, Portis's D ranges from mediocre to pure suck, but the effort is there.

I still don't know what to make of Jabari Parker. He has a couple of lousy games in the row then he has a game like he did last night against the Wolves where he was stellar. Others have said that Parker could stand to lose some weight. I agree. If he does that and commits to staying in shape and accept his role as an off-the-bench sparkplug, I could see re-signing Jabari for maybe 2-3 years at $4M-$6M a season.

Parker turns 24 in a little over a week so he's still young enough to have some decent upside.

[Ruzious]

Jabari's value has gone way down. He was a failure with Chicago and - despite a couple of good games has not played well with Washington. And he should probably drop 10 lbs - maybe more if he wants to show he can play the 3. And remember, he's had 2 ACL tears. I think he'll sign a make-do 1 year contract for about one quarter of what he signed with Chicago. It could be with Washington - maybe not. Frankly, I'd have to be convinced that he's going to lose the weight before I'd sign him.

I think they have to re-sign Portis. You can't end up with nothing from the Otto trade, and Portis is a respectable still young player who fits in today's NBA. He has value, and he won't break the bank. I'd guess he could be had for a 4/40 deal. And he's an RFA, so the Wiz will likely match anything that's not crazy.

Agree about Jabari -- despite a terrific outing tonight against Minny. I'd love to see him succeed, but most likely it'll have to be somewhere else.

I'm less sure than you that we'll keep Portis. You are certainly right that he'd be good value at 4/40, but he seems to have turned down more than that from the Bulls; if that's true, his agent is gonna work very hard to make sure he gets at least that much.

For sure, if Ernie is still our GM (horrible thought), he'll feel like he needs to keep Portis -- & maybe like he looks good if he keeps Parker on that make-good deal you referenced. But, it we have a new GM I doubt he feels the same pressure. We'll see.

Like Parker, Portis had a good outing tonight. But, also like Parker, he hasn't played well for us so far overall.

Yeah the whole "we can't end up with nothing" is very Ernie like thinking. We shouldn't have rushed to dump Otto in the first place but in reality that's what it was. A salary dump. Keeping Portis or Parker is a mistake. Neither player does anything to help you win games. The value of a non-defender at the C position is ZERO!!! $40 million for Portis? I wouldn't give him 1/4th of that. He can walk!

I keep repeating this like a broken record. It's a flooded market for Cs. It makes zero sense to pay top dollar for a C when so many are readily available and cheap. Especially a backup! Especially one that can't defend!

In the hypothetical world you're correct, but in the real world... which is unfortunate for Wiz fans, it'd be an absolute PR nightmare to end up with nothing for Porter. That's just the way it is. And signing Portis - at 23 - for 10 mil a year is hardly anyting to cry about. He'll have trade value. And some of the alternatives mentioned are just awful - Monroe, Paculia, KOC. Does anyone who's actually watched KOC like him. He's probably the worst athlete in the NBA. Centers who stretch the floor and rebound do have value. Have you been a fan of Brook Lopez? Did you ever think he was more than a very bad defender - not to mention rebounder? And this year, his offensive stats look much worse than in previous years, but he stretches the floor, and that helps the Bucks win more than everyone else wins.

[nate33]

Let me put it this way. This is what our roster looks like if we sign Portis to a $10M a year contract after also signing Sato and Bryant to a combined $15M a year salary, and assuming we draft a small forward like Hunter:

PG Wall/Sato
SG Beal/Brown/vet minimum
SF ???/Hunter/vet minimum
PF ???/Portis
C Howard/Bryant/Portis/Mahinmi

Our payroll with this roster is $120M, leaving just $12M to address our starting SF and starting PF positions. Do you really want Portis as our 3rd center and backup PF so badly that you are willing to get by with two starting forwards making $6M each?

Wouldn't it be better to pay a minimum salary to our backup PF (perhaps Jeff Green?) which would leave $24M to devote to our starting SF and PF positions?

[Ruzious]

You both are going WAYYY overboard about Portis.
1) "You can't end up with nothing from the Otto trade" is a terrible motive. The trade is done. Sinking in money to a player doesnt somehow change the value.
2) Portis is Center, and an RFA... who has shown to be a somewhat effective, albeit limited player.

Look at the amount of fringe starting Centers in the market. Dedmon, KOQ, WCS, Justin Patton, Udoh, Pachulia, Chandler, Noel, Zubac, Thomas Bryant, Jordan Bell, Birch...
You then top that off with this amount of Bigs in this draft: Fernando, Bassey, Bol, Gafford, Hayes, Porter, and Goga.

Last year, Len got 2/8.5M, KOQ got 1/4.5M, and Noel / Greg Monroe both signed for the Minimum.

No way Portis gets more than a 2/10M deal... 2/15M at MOST.


.... And no, I dont want Parker for anything more than 5M per.

Portis obviously isn't ideal, but all of the veteran centers you mentioned other than him and Bryant have one thing in common - they're not 3 point shooting threats - with the possible exception of Dedmon - who probably will get paid and is 5 or 6 years older than Portis. For the season, Portis is averaging 20 points and 11 reboundes per 36 minutes and making 39% of his 3's on 5 attempts per 36. Even at 54% TS%, that has value, and at his age - some improvement should be expected. And several of the players you mentioned are dinosaurs about ready for retirement.

Portis and Bryant are 23 and 21 years old. They are as you astutely pointed out, Ruzious, very good three point shooters

The Wizards need to keep both at reasonable contracts.

[/url]

I think so. They both make 3's and rebound. Maybe we can call that 3 and R players? Now we just need a Giannis level player to complement them. Yes, my comment was ass toot.

[Ruzious]

Another scenario. Assuming Howard departs and Mahinmi is stretched.

Wall - $37.8M
Beal - $27.1M
Brown - $3.2M
#7 Draft pick - $3.7M
Thomas Bryant cap hold - $1.8M
Satoransky cap hold - $5.9M
6 minimum salary roster spots - $4.6M
Mahinmi (stretched) - $5.1M

SUBTOTAL: $90.0M
CAP SPACE: $19.0M

Sign Nerlens Noel to a 4-year MLE deal starting a $9.2M. Draft Brandon Clarke and lock him and Troy Brown in a gym all summer and make them shoot 5000 3's a day. Sign Ariza to a 1-year deal at $8M. Resign Dekker and Green to the longest deals we can get them to sign at a cost of less than $3M per. (That may turn out to be be 1-year deals at the vet minimum, but I'd try to lock up Dekker for longer if possible.) Get a new coach who can teach defense. Luke Walton?

Our new lineup:

PG Wall/Sato
SG Beal/Brown
SF Ariza/Dekker
PF Clarke/Green
C Bryant/Noel

That's a team that could play some great defense. Clarke and Noel would be a nightmare in the passing lanes, as is Ariza. And Sato and Dekker always give good effort. The only real weak links defensively are Bryant (who has gotten better defensively) and Green (who isn't bad as a defender, but he's a terrible rebounder). Offensively, the team could only go as far as Beal can carry them, but the goal here is to establish a defensive identity like OKC, and then build from there.

Starting Clarke on Day 1 might be optimistic, but with his experience, it's at least plausible. The intent is for him to be a defensive complement to the starting unit, with Jeff Green providing some needed offensive help and floor-stretching to the second unit.

If drafting Clarke was done within the context of a trade-down, we might also be able to add some more talent.

Nate... You're doing too much.
You go through hurdles with renouncing rights and stretching Mahinmi...For What?
You resign Ariza and bring in Noel for the MLE... there is no need to do any gymnastics for that.

1)... We need to trade back from 4-7 to the late lotto. One of Culver, Hunter, or Clarke will definitely be available.
2)... we should shop Mahinmi for a better fit, but worse contract. Tyler Johnson, Tony Snell, etc. are a couple examples.
3)... I dont care about Howard. I personally think he'll opt out, but outside ANOTHER injury, he's movable at the deadline.

Outside of that...your plan works with me

On 1... Hunter and Clarke will both be gone by late lotto. Culver could be there, but I think he's just an okay prospect.
On 2... trading for Snell would be worse than stretching him, because you end up damaging the year after more, and the Bucks wouldn't do that. And why would we have any interest in Tyler Johnson?
On 3... I think you're probably right.

[pcbothwel]

Another scenario. Assuming Howard departs and Mahinmi is stretched.

Wall - $37.8M
Beal - $27.1M
Brown - $3.2M
#7 Draft pick - $3.7M
Thomas Bryant cap hold - $1.8M
Satoransky cap hold - $5.9M
6 minimum salary roster spots - $4.6M
Mahinmi (stretched) - $5.1M

SUBTOTAL: $90.0M
CAP SPACE: $19.0M

Sign Nerlens Noel to a 4-year MLE deal starting a $9.2M. Draft Brandon Clarke and lock him and Troy Brown in a gym all summer and make them shoot 5000 3's a day. Sign Ariza to a 1-year deal at $8M. Resign Dekker and Green to the longest deals we can get them to sign at a cost of less than $3M per. (That may turn out to be be 1-year deals at the vet minimum, but I'd try to lock up Dekker for longer if possible.) Get a new coach who can teach defense. Luke Walton?

Our new lineup:

PG Wall/Sato
SG Beal/Brown
SF Ariza/Dekker
PF Clarke/Green
C Bryant/Noel

That's a team that could play some great defense. Clarke and Noel would be a nightmare in the passing lanes, as is Ariza. And Sato and Dekker always give good effort. The only real weak links defensively are Bryant (who has gotten better defensively) and Green (who isn't bad as a defender, but he's a terrible rebounder). Offensively, the team could only go as far as Beal can carry them, but the goal here is to establish a defensive identity like OKC, and then build from there.

Starting Clarke on Day 1 might be optimistic, but with his experience, it's at least plausible. The intent is for him to be a defensive complement to the starting unit, with Jeff Green providing some needed offensive help and floor-stretching to the second unit.

If drafting Clarke was done within the context of a trade-down, we might also be able to add some more talent.

Nate... You're doing too much.
You go through hurdles with renouncing rights and stretching Mahinmi...For What?
You resign Ariza and bring in Noel for the MLE... there is no need to do any gymnastics for that.

1)... We need to trade back from 4-7 to the late lotto. One of Culver, Hunter, or Clarke will definitely be available.
2)... we should shop Mahinmi for a better fit, but worse contract. Tyler Johnson, Tony Snell, etc. are a couple examples.
3)... I dont care about Howard. I personally think he'll opt out, but outside ANOTHER injury, he's movable at the deadline.

Outside of that...your plan works with me

On 1... Hunter and Clarke will both be gone by late lotto. Culver could be there, but I think he's just an okay prospect.
On 2... trading for Snell would be worse than stretching him, because you end damaging the year after more. And why would we have any interest in Tyler Johnson?
On 3... I think you're probably right.

Ruz... they MIGHT be gone..but I doubt.
Also, players like Doumbouya, Garland, Hayes, Little, Langford, Bol, Jontay Porter, Goga, Fernando, NAW, etc. are LEGIT NBA talents.
I think you have Rui, Reddish, Keldon Johnson and Okpala all going in the top 12 along with the big 3 of Zion, Ja, and RJ.
I just listed 10 players plus Clarke and Hunter.
So you have 12 really good players available and the 7 above all going top 10.

That math alone means at LEAST 6 of 12 will be available at 14... and at least 1-2 available at 18-20.

I'll take the risk of missing out on Hunter or Clarke if I can get Garland & Hayes...or Little and Bol... or Culver and Fernando..
And thats the bad case scenerio

[doclinkin]

And much to the chagrin of Dat2U, PIF and others, I think it's all but certain that the Wizards will prioritize retaining Ariza. I just hope he costs something like $7M and not $13M. It's maddening for a team with zero chance at a 2nd round playoff appearance will spend 7 figures on a 34-year-old vet, but that's the way Ted rolls.

I think that depends on whether GMEG is retained or not. Ernie will keep him so as not to appear to have gotten nothing from the Oubre trade. But I don't think Ted would overrule a new GM who decides against retaining him for the price.

[Illmatic12]

Let me put it this way. This is what our roster looks like if we sign Portis to a $10M a year contract after also signing Sato and Bryant to a combined $15M a year salary, and assuming we draft a small forward like Hunter:

PG Wall/Sato
SG Beal/Brown/vet minimum
SF ???/Hunter/vet minimum
PF ???/Portis
C Howard/Bryant/Portis/Mahinmi

Our payroll with this roster is $120M, leaving just $12M to address our starting SF and starting PF positions. Do you really want Portis as our 3rd center and backup PF so badly that you are willing to get by with two starting forwards making $6M each?

Wouldn't it be better to pay a minimum salary to our backup PF (perhaps Jeff Green?) which would leave $24M to devote to our starting SF and PF positions?

I feel like it makes more sense to think about it in terms of production? I think that regardless of where you slot him on the depth chart, Portis will probably be top 4-5 on the team in minutes played next season. Even off the bench Portis is going to play ~28mpg and score 14-15ppg on solid efficiency. His level of production will probably be commensurate to an ~$8-10M player

Also I don't see why they couldn't sign a minimum guy to start at either forward spot. Some vets may be willing to take it if you promise them a starting role.. for example, Jeff Green and Ariza are both starting right now and could conceivably be back next year on minimum contracts. And the last point I would make is that Washington is likely going to be picking in the top 7, this isn't a Troy Brown or Oubre situation where you're taking a mid-round flier on a project. If we draft an SF/PF that high, that player is most likely going to start in their rookie season.

[Ruzious]

Nate... You're doing too much.
You go through hurdles with renouncing rights and stretching Mahinmi...For What?
You resign Ariza and bring in Noel for the MLE... there is no need to do any gymnastics for that.

1)... We need to trade back from 4-7 to the late lotto. One of Culver, Hunter, or Clarke will definitely be available.
2)... we should shop Mahinmi for a better fit, but worse contract. Tyler Johnson, Tony Snell, etc. are a couple examples.
3)... I dont care about Howard. I personally think he'll opt out, but outside ANOTHER injury, he's movable at the deadline.

Outside of that...your plan works with me

On 1... Hunter and Clarke will both be gone by late lotto. Culver could be there, but I think he's just an okay prospect.
On 2... trading for Snell would be worse than stretching him, because you end damaging the year after more. And why would we have any interest in Tyler Johnson?
On 3... I think you're probably right.

Ruz... they MIGHT be gone..but I doubt.
Also, players like Doumbouya, Garland, Hayes, Little, Langford, Bol, Jontay Porter, Goga, Fernando, NAW, etc. are LEGIT NBA talents.
I think you have Rui, Reddish, Keldon Johnson and Okpala all going in the top 12 along with the big 3 of Zion, Ja, and RJ.
I just listed 10 players plus Clarke and Hunter.
So you have 12 really good players available and the 7 above all going top 10.

That math alone means at LEAST 6 of 12 will be available at 14... and at least 1-2 available at 18-20.

I'll take the risk of missing out on Hunter or Clarke if I can get Garland & Hayes...or Little and Bol... or Culver and Fernando..
And thats the bad case scenerio

Your math is making too many wrong assumptions, imo. The draft likely starts with Zion, Barrett and Morant. At 4, there's nobody that's significantly ahead of Hunter and Clarke right now - that could change, but Hunter is such a low risk prospect that I think he's a sure thing to go in the top 10 - I'd bet the mortgage on it - and Clarke has a higher achievable upside than Hunter. Look at the other guys you mentioned - they all have major issues - Doumbouya is so raw that he might never make it. Garland and Porter and Bol have serious medical issues and are missing development time. I like Rui, but he doesn't fit the NBA mold for a PF or a SF. Hayes and Fernando are very talented, but they need to step up and show they're more than athletes. Reddish is interesting for his D, but I think he's way overrated, and I'm guessing the NBA folks will agree with me. Keldon Johnson's nothing special, imo. Okpala seems a lot like Oubre - even looks a little like him. Little can't even get PT.

[doclinkin]

Your math is making too many wrong assumptions, imo. The draft likely starts with Zion, Barrett and Morant. At 4, there's nobody that's significantly ahead of Hunter and Clarke right now -

Tournament and combine tend to reshuffle the deck. We will see players jump into the lotto from both.

[pcbothwel]

Your math is making too many wrong assumptions, imo. The draft likely starts with Zion, Barrett and Morant. At 4, there's nobody that's significantly ahead of Hunter and Clarke right now -

Tournament and combine tend to reshuffle the deck. We will see players jump into the lotto from both.

Agreed.. and Ruz..you're missing my point (I believe).
Yes, the draft starts at 4.
My point is from 4-12 (9 picks), I believe prospects I DO NOT like will be selected. Those include Rui, Reddish, Keldon Johnson and Okpala.
That leaves 5 players from the following 13 players to be picked:
Hunter, Clarke, Doumbouya, Culver, Garland, Hayes, Little, Langford, Bol, Jontay Porter, Goga, Fernando, NAW.

Which means at 13, 8 of the above players WILL be available... with at least 3-4 available in the late teens.
Do you disagree?

Im trying to paint a picture of a trade down with say...Boston for 14 & 19 (plus more, but not the point right now)
Here are the players I mentioned that would be available at those picks using the below Mocks:
NBA Draft.net:
14: Clarke, NAW, Garland, Doubouya, Bol, Hayes, Goga, Porter
19: Clarke, Hayes, Porter, Goga,

Tankathon:
14: Little, NAW, Rui, Bol, Goga, Fernando,
19: Goga, Fernando

NBADraftRoom:
14: Doubouya, Bol, Goga, Porter, Fernando, Langford
19: Goga, Porter, Fernando, Langford

ESPN:
14: Rui, Porter, NAW, Clarke, Goga, Fernando
19: Clarke, Goga, Fernando


You can see what I am trying to say... But lets also look at another possible trade route...
What if a team wanting to compete is willing to give up a future pick to move up for what they believe is a AS caliber player in Reddish or Rui.

Would you trade 7 to LAL for 13, Hart, and a 2021 protected 1st?

Again...just trying to keep our minds open

[Ruzious]

Hey, my crystal ball still says Hunter and Clarke will be gone before 12, but we shall see. But it's a good point that someone like Garland, Bol, or Porter could be there late lotto depending on their injury situations - making the late lotto picks more alluring.