Woj: Deni to Portland for 14th pick and Brogdon

[payitforward]

...In any case, it's utterly arbitrary to compare Deni Avdija to Jrue Holiday. What's the point?

Because this is a basketball forum and someone made the comparision between Deni and Jrue.

Sorry. I didn't mean what was the point of YOU comparing them -- I meant to be agreeing with you that there was no significant comparison.

[AFM]

Deni is better than Jrue. Matter of fact he’s better than Tracy McGrady ever was, and we should have gotten more for him (I know his league wide value better than the FO).

[payitforward]

Actually, Jrue was better his 2d year than either his 3d or his 4th. All star selections have little to do with the season you're having that particular year.

His PER-36's improved noticably in points and assists in year 4. What other than a marginally improved TS% in year 2 leads you to believe his 2nd year was better than year 4?...

Actually, looking at the numbers again, you're right -- there's little to choose overall between the 2 seasons.

As to how many points deni or Jrue scored, it looks like joshuacf is listing "points per game,"...

Kanye West stated "Holiday averaged 18 ppg, 8 apg , and 4 rpg with a 49 TS%. Deni averaged 18 ppg, 4.6 apg, and 8.6 rpg with a 60 TS%."

Those are "points per game" stats for Holiday. So it wasn't me that first used the point per game...

Right! I lost context there....

...as much as you'd like to place that on me.

Nah.

In any case, it's utterly arbitrary to compare Deni Avdija to Jrue Holiday. What's the point?

Because this is a basketball forum and someone made the comparision between Deni and Jrue.

Dude! -- I was just trying to agree with you that Jrue is/was the better player by far!

[montestewart]

Deni is better than Jrue. Matter of fact he’s better than Tracy McGrady ever was, and we should have gotten more for him (I know his league wide value better than the FO).

Harry Trudat. Raptors only got one future 1st back when they traded McGrady to the Magic, and the Magic didn’t get any picks when they traded him to The Rockets. Plus Deni has all the intangerines. Avdija > McGrady.

[nate33]

Read on Twitter

Per 36 numbers:

Wagner
21.9 points
5.9 rebounds
4.1 assists
1.2 steals
0.4 blocks
2.1 turnovers
.575 TS%
$45M per year for 5 years

Avdija
17.6 points
8.6 rebounds
4.6 assists
1.0 steals
0.6 blocks
2.6 turnovers
.597 TS%
$13M a year for 4 years

Deni is 7 months older. He's basically the same player as Wagner for 30% of the cost and all we got was two FRP's

[AFM]

Read on Twitter

Per 36 numbers:

Wagner
21.9 points
5.9 rebounds
4.1 assists
1.2 steals
0.4 blocks
2.1 turnovers
.575 TS%
$45M per year for 5 years

Avdija
17.6 points
8.6 rebounds
4.6 assists
1.0 steals
0.6 blocks
2.6 turnovers
.597 TS%
$13M a year for 4 years

Deni is 7 months older. He's basically the same player as Wagner for 30% of the cost and all we got was two FRP's

All we got was 2 FRPs?

[Pistol King]

Why we need to go to Jrue Holiday, when Nate33 has posted here several times stats production compared to guys like Wagner, Scottie Barnes and Mikal Bridges. Would it be worth keeping a 23 years old slightly worse (let's say) player?

I'll add another rising star to the mix:

Jalen Johnson (11 months younger than Deni) 23/24 season per 36:
17.1 pts, 9.3 rebs, 3.9 ast, 1.3 STL, 0.9 BLK, 35.5% from 3, 2.8FTA, 58.4 TS%

Deni Avdija 23/24 season per 36:
17.6pts, 8.6rebs, 4.6 ast, 1.0 STL, 0.6 BLK 37.4% from 3, 4.4FTA, 59.7 TS%


If I could sit with Dawkins privately and talk to him about the Deni trade, I'd ask him two questions:

1. When you think long term, watching how hard is to find nowadays young tall two way versatile forwards, why do you bank more on a 6'5" player to have a higher impact, than a 6'9" with known floor that can still get much better, because he still has fixable stuff he can improve on, and because he has the work ethic?

2. If you have been so high on Bub, why couldn't you find other ways to acquire the 13th or the 14th pick and select him without to give up on Deni who fits the timeline perfectly (and he simply can't use the timeline excuse when Poole, Kuzma, and Valanciunas are here and projected to continue getting major roles the next season). You could have Bub, Sarr, Deni and Bilal all together. What was the rush to dump him. Are you this uncertain in your ability to keep develop him?

His contract is so movable that his stock could only go up from here with more investment in him.

EDIT: I posted this before I saw Nate mentioned it again.

[doclinkin]

Deni is 7 months older. He's basically the same player as Wagner for 30% of the cost and all we got was two FRP's

All we got was 2 FRPs?

And Malcolm Brogdon with his $22.5m expiring contract. And whatever he brings back in trade.
And two 2RPs. They are seeking a 1RP or a prospect + 2 2RPs. If they do get that I think you can say its a decent value considering play time and roster construction.

Meanwhile you have Brogdon on the team filling out roster depth at the guard spot where we are thin. Or problematic.

Brogdon is a significant downgrade from Deni. True. But he's still averaging about 20pts/7 ast per 36 mins and above 40% from 3. It doesn't suck to have a veteran guard who plays an all-court game as an example for a guy like Bub. Both are 6'4ish with long arms, and play a physical brand of ball in a switchable combo guard role. For the time we have him I expect he will be a positive asset all around. The hope from the front office is that he brings us back a good return either from a contender, or a team that needs to dodge a cap guillotine next year. I expect Brogdon is will probably be trying to audition for playoff teams.

All Bub has to do to demonstrate that he was worth the trade is to outperform Deni's year by year performance.
Seems not to hard to do for the first 3 years.

Year 1: 23 minutes. 6 points. 5 boards. 1 assist. .6 steals. .6 blocks.
Year 2: 24 minutes. 8 points. 5 boards. 2 assists. .7 steals. .7 blocks.
Year 3: 27 minutes. 9 points. 6 boards. 3 assists. .9 steals. .9 blocks.
Year 4: 30 minutes. 15 points. 7 boards. 4 assists. .8 steals. .8 blocks.

[nate33]

Deni is 7 months older. He's basically the same player as Wagner for 30% of the cost and all we got was two FRP's

All we got was 2 FRPs?

And Malcolm Brogdon with his $22.5m expiring contract. And whatever he brings back in trade.
And two 2RPs.

Brogdon is a significant downgrade from Deni. True. But he's still averaging about 20pts/7 ast per 36 mins and above 40% from 3. It doesn't suck to have a veteran guard who plays an all-court game as an example for a guy like Bub. Both are 6'4ish with long arms, and play a physical brand of ball. For the time we have him I expect he will be a positive asset all around. The hope from the front office is that he brings us back a 1RP from a contender or a team that needs to dodge a cap guillotine next year. I expect Brogdon is will probably be trying to audition for playoff teams. The team plan is to sell him for at minimum a developing young player and 2 second rounders.

All Bub has to do to demonstrate that he was worth the trade is to outperform Deni's year by year performance.
Seems not to hard to do for the first 3 years.

Year 1: 23 minutes. 6 points. 5 boards. 1 assist. .6 steals. .6 blocks.
Year 2: 24 minutes. 8 points. 5 boards. 2 assists. .7 steals. .7 blocks.
Year 3: 27 minutes. 9 points. 6 boards. 3 assists. .9 steals. .9 blocks.
Year 4: 30 minutes. 15 points. 7 boards. 4 assists. .8 steals. .8 blocks.

It is irrelevant if he outperforms Deni's first 3 years. What matters is if he can outperform Deni 4th season in his 4th season (while also being an exceptionally good defender). And then he needs to sign the best contract in the league. That's possible, but probably not likely.

And I don't think Brogdon has much trade value on an expiring contract. Nobody is going to give up a FRP for a half-year rental of a guy who misses 35 games a season.

[Kanyewest]

Actually, Jrue was better his 2d year than either his 3d or his 4th. All star selections have little to do with the season you're having that particular year.

His PER-36's improved noticably in points and assists in year 4. What other than a marginally improved TS% in year 2 leads you to believe his 2nd year was better than year 4?

As to how many points deni or Jrue scored, it looks like joshuacf is listing "points per game," which is, obviously, a pretty much meaningless number independent of a) how many FGAs/FTAs it took to get those points & b) how many minutes the guy averaged per game.

Kanye West stated "Holiday averaged 18 ppg, 8 apg , and 4 rpg with a 49 TS%. Deni averaged 18 ppg, 4.6 apg, and 8.6 rpg with a 60 TS%."

Those are "points per game" stats for Holiday. So it wasn't me that first used the point per game, as much as you'd like to place that on me.

In any case, it's utterly arbitrary to compare Deni Avdija to Jrue Holiday. What's the point?

Because this is a basketball forum and someone made the comparision between Deni and Jrue.

Yeah I mistyped it, my bad. I might still take Deni given Holiday's TS percentage for that season. And it wasn't like the 76ers were great (36 wins for the season)

[doclinkin]

It is irrelevant if he outperforms Deni's first 3 years. What matters is if he can outperform Deni 4th season in his 4th season (while also being an exceptionally good defender). And then he needs to sign the best contract in the league. That's possible, but probably not likely.

Who signed Deni to that contract? Not possible the front office makes similar smart decisions with other deals?

I do think it is relevant if Bub tracks developmentally with Deni. We were patient with Deni for his first 3 seasons. (Well some of us were.) And gave the young kid time to develop. Whatever sour feels fans have about Deni, I think it's fair to let Bub develop and grow without always being tied to how he was acquired.

Different front office, but from a fan perspective I think it matters if the team gets better value from the player's minutes over the life of his first contract. Can't just take the results of his final year without reflecting on the fact that Deni did take himself out of games after a bad call, or refuse to shoot open shots, or fail to attack for the first few years of his play.

Yeah he developed, finally broke out, in his one year under this development team. You heard in exit interviews how closely they monitor and encourage in-season successes. Deni thrived here under their system. Maybe it was all Deni by himself, but maybe some credit is due to their player development program, giving him measurable success goals so that he wouldn't sulk if he had a bad stretch.

If Bub is tracking to perform better than Deni on a year by year basis, as a fan I know I will get more enjoyment out of those player-minutes than I did with my frustration over Deni's short falls. And I'll hold out hope that his development continues on a similar track. Rookie Bub vs 4th year Deni, sure, Bub loses. Not a fair comparison for a kid who enters the league 6 months younger than Deni did. But if we do end a player whose career as a Wizard is more productive than Deni's, then as a fan I'm saying we are getting better value watching those minutes. More to cheer for, and yeah hope that his breakout year surpasses Deni's as well.

We traded Deni to make room for Sarr I believe. If I'm salty its about that fact. I think after all the trades and picks are made, and these players are putting up stats, we will probably say we got decent value for Deni. Especially given the jogjam at the position which would tend to drive down the value of all the players at that spot. Deni included. Once we had the sense we were locked in to Sarr as the pick, we had to clear room in the front court. And Deni's deal was the best one offered. I think we don't get that deal, or any better one, if we had first selected Sarr and then went looking for a trade. Especially if they were battling each other for minutes every night. Considering Deni's history of having to share the spot, would his value have remained as high? Or would his raw numbers and counting stats look closer to years 1-3. What's his trade value then.

To me that's the lens to view it through. Not 'was the trade fair?' but 'which defensive forward proved more valuable?' I think Sarr will have a lot of work to do to come close to Deni. But he has an upside that I suppose Deni does not. I have my question marks if he gets there, but hopefully the team's developmental team finds the best ways to bring it out of him. Same way with Bub. And possibly how they did with Deni in his final year with us.

[badinage]

And what do we say if Bub doesn’t flash star potential by the end of season two/start of season three?

I’m hoping like heck it doesn’t happen.

But I also know that the bar has been set pretty durn high for Bub.

[9 and 20]

I remember way back when we drafted Otto and Oubre and we were stacked at small forward. Then all of a sudden we had neither. Then we draft Rui and Deni back to back and now they're both gone. At least we got a few picks this time.

Agree that the Franz Wagner contract makes the Deni trade look way, way worse.

[payitforward]

Holy moley!
What's with all this "what if... what if" stuff?

Two years & a few months ago, we traded some assets for Kristaps Porzingis. Everybody was over the top; it was a great trade. A triumph. Slightly more than a year later, KP left for Boston, & we got (essentially) nothing for him.

Does that transform the trade for Porzingis from wonderful to awful?

If Deni continues to improve year upon year for a while, then the Blazers will have made a h#ll of a deal. If Deni continues to perform at his '23-4 level (i.e. but doesn't improve), the Blazers will still have a good value player at his salary.

For whom they gave 2 R1 picks (at least one in the lottery), 2 R2 picks, & Malcolm Brogdon.

& one thing I think we can be sure of: Will tried to get as much as he possibly could for Deni Avdija.

[DCZards]

Let’s not forget that this was not a straight up Deni for Bub trade. The Zards also received a second FRP, two SRPs and Brogdon. What the Zards FO end up doing with those assets must also be factored in when evaluating the trade 3-4 yrs from now.

[Halcyon]

I'm pretty sure Deni will put up worse numbers next year. I think his numbers were inflated based on pace, and complete lack of rebounding bigs. He's a nice secondary play maker with ok shooting when left open, but can't create reliably in the half court which will always limit him. He also doesn't use his left hand still, after 4 years in the league.

Sent from my SM-G998U1 using RealGM mobile app

[nate33]

It is irrelevant if he outperforms Deni's first 3 years. What matters is if he can outperform Deni 4th season in his 4th season (while also being an exceptionally good defender). And then he needs to sign the best contract in the league. That's possible, but probably not likely.

Who signed Deni to that contract? Not possible the front office makes similar smart decisions with other deals?

I do think it is relevant if Bub tracks developmentally with Deni. We were patient with Deni for his first 3 seasons. (Well some of us were.) And gave the young kid time to develop. Whatever sour feels fans have about Deni, I think it's fair to let Bub develop and grow without always being tied to how he was acquired.

Different front office, but from a fan perspective I think it matters if the team gets better value from the player's minutes over the life of his first contract. Can't just take the results of his final year without reflecting on the fact that Deni did take himself out of games after a bad call, or refuse to shoot open shots, or fail to attack for the first few years of his play.

Yeah he developed, finally broke out, in his one year under this development team. You heard in exit interviews how closely they monitor and encourage in-season successes. Deni thrived here under their system. Maybe it was all Deni by himself, but maybe some credit is due to their player development program, giving him measurable success goals so that he wouldn't sulk if he had a bad stretch.

If Bub is tracking to perform better than Deni on a year by year basis, as a fan I know I will get more enjoyment out of those player-minutes than I did with my frustration over Deni's short falls. And I'll hold out hope that his development continues on a similar track. Rookie Bub vs 4th year Deni, sure, Bub loses. Not a fair comparison for a kid who enters the league 6 months younger than Deni did. But if we do end a player whose career as a Wizard is more productive than Deni's, then as a fan I'm saying we are getting better value watching those minutes. More to cheer for, and yeah hope that his breakout year surpasses Deni's as well.

We traded Deni to make room for Sarr I believe. If I'm salty its about that fact. I think after all the trades and picks are made, and these players are putting up stats, we will probably say we got decent value for Deni. Especially given the jogjam at the position which would tend to drive down the value of all the players at that spot. Deni included. Once we had the sense we were locked in to Sarr as the pick, we had to clear room in the front court. And Deni's deal was the best one offered. I think we don't get that deal, or any better one, if we had first selected Sarr and then went looking for a trade. Especially if they were battling each other for minutes every night. Considering Deni's history of having to share the spot, would his value have remained as high? Or would his raw numbers and counting stats look closer to years 1-3. What's his trade value then.

To me that's the lens to view it through. Not 'was the trade fair?' but 'which defensive forward proved more valuable?' I think Sarr will have a lot of work to do to come close to Deni. But he has an upside that I suppose Deni does not. I have my question marks if he gets there, but hopefully the team's developmental team finds the best ways to bring it out of him. Same way with Bub. And possibly how they did with Deni in his final year with us.

There's not much more to say on the matter.

Yes, if Bub and that 2029 pick develop into really good players, then this trade will have paid off. I just think the odds of that happening are rather low. And with the recent trade of Bridges and the recent signings of guys like Franz and Barnes establishing the market for young two-way wings, I think it is obvious that we did not get fair value for Deni.

[badinage]

It is irrelevant if he outperforms Deni's first 3 years. What matters is if he can outperform Deni 4th season in his 4th season (while also being an exceptionally good defender). And then he needs to sign the best contract in the league. That's possible, but probably not likely.

Who signed Deni to that contract? Not possible the front office makes similar smart decisions with other deals?

I do think it is relevant if Bub tracks developmentally with Deni. We were patient with Deni for his first 3 seasons. (Well some of us were.) And gave the young kid time to develop. Whatever sour feels fans have about Deni, I think it's fair to let Bub develop and grow without always being tied to how he was acquired.

Different front office, but from a fan perspective I think it matters if the team gets better value from the player's minutes over the life of his first contract. Can't just take the results of his final year without reflecting on the fact that Deni did take himself out of games after a bad call, or refuse to shoot open shots, or fail to attack for the first few years of his play.

Yeah he developed, finally broke out, in his one year under this development team. You heard in exit interviews how closely they monitor and encourage in-season successes. Deni thrived here under their system. Maybe it was all Deni by himself, but maybe some credit is due to their player development program, giving him measurable success goals so that he wouldn't sulk if he had a bad stretch.

If Bub is tracking to perform better than Deni on a year by year basis, as a fan I know I will get more enjoyment out of those player-minutes than I did with my frustration over Deni's short falls. And I'll hold out hope that his development continues on a similar track. Rookie Bub vs 4th year Deni, sure, Bub loses. Not a fair comparison for a kid who enters the league 6 months younger than Deni did. But if we do end a player whose career as a Wizard is more productive than Deni's, then as a fan I'm saying we are getting better value watching those minutes. More to cheer for, and yeah hope that his breakout year surpasses Deni's as well.

We traded Deni to make room for Sarr I believe. If I'm salty its about that fact. I think after all the trades and picks are made, and these players are putting up stats, we will probably say we got decent value for Deni. Especially given the jogjam at the position which would tend to drive down the value of all the players at that spot. Deni included. Once we had the sense we were locked in to Sarr as the pick, we had to clear room in the front court. And Deni's deal was the best one offered. I think we don't get that deal, or any better one, if we had first selected Sarr and then went looking for a trade. Especially if they were battling each other for minutes every night. Considering Deni's history of having to share the spot, would his value have remained as high? Or would his raw numbers and counting stats look closer to years 1-3. What's his trade value then.

To me that's the lens to view it through. Not 'was the trade fair?' but 'which defensive forward proved more valuable?' I think Sarr will have a lot of work to do to come close to Deni. But he has an upside that I suppose Deni does not. I have my question marks if he gets there, but hopefully the team's developmental team finds the best ways to bring it out of him. Same way with Bub. And possibly how they did with Deni in his final year with us.

There's not much more to say on the matter.

Yes, if Bub and that 2029 pick develop into really good players, then this trade will have paid off. I just think the odds of that happening are rather low. And with the recent trade of Bridges and the recent signings of guys like Franz and Barnes establishing the market for young two-way wings, I think it is obvious that we did not get fair value for Deni.

I think this is inarguable. Though that won’t stop some of us!

I know the trade includes the FRP (in 2029? lol) and SRP. So then, to be fair to Dawk-wing, we can’t properly evaluate this trade until 2033, when that pick — assuming he sticks in the league for 4 years — will have shown what he is capable of.

[DCZards]

I know the trade includes the FRP (in 2029? lol) and SRP. So then, to be fair to Dawk-wing, we can’t properly evaluate this trade until 2033, when that pick — assuming he sticks in the league for 4 years — will have shown what he is capable of.

Don’t assume that the Zards will have to wait until 2029 to use that FRP. There are a number of teams with multiple FRPs in the next 2-3 drafts. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Zards FO trade that 2029 pick to one of those teams for a pick or to move up in one of those drafts.

[payitforward]

... with the recent trade of Bridges and the recent signings of guys like Franz and Barnes establishing the market for young two-way wings, I think it is obvious that we did not get fair value for Deni.

Since any player can be traded if the price is right, the above is the only meaningful question about the trade.

Bridges had something of an off year last year, but over his first 5 years in the league he was way better than Deni. Not just overall, but every year. There is no reason to compare what he & Deni brought in trades.

Rinse & repeat for Barnes. He was better as a rookie than Deni was in his 4th year break out.

I know you described Franz Wagner as more or less the same player as Deni (i.e. same "quality"). Certainly they are closer to comparable than are Bridges or Barnes. In fact, I agree that their '23-24 productivity was about the same. We could even give a small edge to Deni.

But the market for the two guys' 2d contracts was completely different. Wagner had been quite a lot better as a rookie than Deni was. He was quite a bit better than Deni as a 2d-year player too. It's not hard to understand the difference in the two guys' second deals.

Of course, one could argue that the right conclusion to draw is that Deni's new contract is a bargain! &, on the reasonable assumption that he continues to play at his 4th year level (& all the more if he improves further!), that it will continue to be a bargain.

All the above seems to me to be objectively true. Per my premise, of course, it doesn't affect the question whether we "should" have traded Deni.

But, it does establish that we had a good young player on an advantageous, multi-year contract. Which goes to the question of value received in the trade.

There are three aspects to that question of value. The first is Bub; the 2d is everything else received; the 3d is the question whether we could have gotten more.

Taking them in reverse order, I think we can assume that we could not have gotten more. For one thing, I'm sure Will would have done his due diligence around the league to establish value. For another, 2 R1 picks plus 2 R2 picks plus a vet with some value is, in principle, a fair amount to get for a non-star, non-big-time-scorer player. A lot, actually.

& this goes to the 1st 2 questions above. Really, as Zards points out, Bub's potential (or, really, what he achieves based on his potential) is the determining factor in our judgment of the trade.

How will it all turn out?

That can't be predicted of course. What I can't see, however, is why response to this trade has become so charged with emotion. We're heading for 20 pages in a thread related to a single trade. Wow!