Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011

[nate33]

Eddie House, Derrick Fisher, JJ Redick (who doesn't play 6'4"), Ben Gordon, Will Bynum ... Jimmer's in the mold of those guys. He belongs in round one IMO.

Gordon is a great analogy. He's built like Gordon. He can shoot like Gordon. He'll have defensive troubles like Gordon.

He'll either be an instant-offense 6th man type like Gordon, or he'll prove to be a better pick and roll player in the NBA (where he'll have better teammates) and find a way to be a starting-caliber PG. I wouldn't be surprised if he turned out to be roughly as good as Jameer Nelson or Jose Calderon.

Defense is always going to be a problem though. He's short, not exceptionally quick, and has TRex arms.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

nate, if you knew for sure Jimmer was roughly another Ben Gordon, would you trade Wall for Steph Curry and the rights to Fredette?

I am almost afraid to post a Wall trade idea, but the thought of having two scoring PGs has me intrigued. I am thinking Wall might be a long ways off from being spectacular. Here's a link to a comparison of the rookie stats of Wall, Curry, Paul, and Tony Parker.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... 01&y4=2002

I really don't know how significant it is but in Win Score/48, Wall is well behind the others, including Steph Curry.

Just got me thinking of something that won't happen, a Wall trade ... It is one way this team could get Curry plus a lottery selection like Williams along with yet another late lottery pick, like Kemba Walker or Jimmer Fredette.

[montestewart]

nate, if you knew for sure Jimmer was roughly another Ben Gordon, would you trade Wall for Steph Curry and the rights to Fredette?

I am almost afraid to post a Wall trade idea, but the thought of having two scoring PGs has me intrigued. I am thinking Wall might be a long ways off from being spectacular. Here's a link to a comparison of the rookie stats of Wall, Curry, Paul, and Tony Parker.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... 01&y4=2002

I really don't know how significant it is but in Win Score/48, Wall is well behind the others, including Steph Curry.

Just got me thinking of something that won't happen, a Wall trade ... It is one way this team could get Curry plus a lottery selection like Williams along with yet another late lottery pick, like Kemba Walker or Jimmer Fredette.

Everyone can't be Chris Paul from the starting gate. Here's a link to a similar comparison of the rookie stats of Wall, Jason Kidd, Deron Williams, and Tony Parker. Wall doesn't come off looking so bad here, and his rookie season's not over. Check the game logs; some of them trended upward as their rookie seasons progressed.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... 01&y4=2002

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

John Wall is seventeen years younger than Jason Kidd.

Monte, you're right that Wall's not all that far off in production. I just wonder about Win Score per 48, however. That translates fairly well in revealing great vs very good vs merely good players.

[Ed Wood]

I like Stephen Curry a lot CCJ, and setting aside the reality that at this point Wall is so much the face of the Wizards' franchise and the organization has so much invested in him and trading him for anything short of a top five player in the NBA would be public relations suicide I... well I guess I can't totally shoot down a Wall for Curry and a prize pack deal conceptually with the caveat that while Wall has been terrible defensively this year I don't think he will be nearly as bad in the future whereas I think Curry will always be a bad defender.

The big thing about the trade as you present it is how weirdly you're using the additional pick from the Warriors. I know Jimmer just dropped a zillion and you like guys who stick around in school and are productive as upper classmen but what the hell would the Wizards do with a Curry/Fredette backcourt (other than give up 130 points a game)? Also, just to see whether I can make an Ouroboros out of you, Curry and his jumper would work sooo much better as a later day Sam Cassell in Flip's offense. Flip's job would be safe forever, forever.... For-Eh-Ver.

But yeah, would never happen.

[nate33]

nate, if you knew for sure Jimmer was roughly another Ben Gordon, would you trade Wall for Steph Curry and the rights to Fredette?

Absolutely not. Always take quality over quantity. Wall is MUCH more likely to pan out to be the best player of those three. Give me Wall without hesitation.

[Ruzious]

In my dream scenario the Wizards would figure a way to acquire Williams, Fredette, and Faried without giving up McGee, Young, or Wall.

It's definitely not impossible. Jimmer and Faried will likely be late 1sts, and I think it should be relatively easy to trade for late 1sts in this draft. Hey, EG traded for 2 extra firsts last draft. DWill and Faried could make an interesting complementary forward pairing.

[theboomking]

I like Stephen Curry a lot CCJ, and setting aside the reality that at this point Wall is so much the face of the Wizards' franchise and the organization has so much invested in him and trading him for anything short of a top five player in the NBA would be public relations suicide I... well I guess I can't totally shoot down a Wall for Curry and a prize pack deal conceptually with the caveat that while Wall has been terrible defensively this year I don't think he will be nearly as bad in the future whereas I think Curry will always be a bad defender.

The big thing about the trade as you present it is how weirdly you're using the additional pick from the Warriors. I know Jimmer just dropped a zillion and you like guys who stick around in school and are productive as upper classmen but what the hell would the Wizards do with a Curry/Fredette backcourt (other than give up 130 points a game)? Also, just to see whether I can make an Ouroboros out of you, Curry and his jumper would work sooo much better as a later day Sam Cassell in Flip's offense. Flip's job would be safe forever, forever.... For-Eh-Ver.

But yeah, would never happen.

I agree with this 100 percent. The first thing I'll point to is that Wall is averaging more assists than any of those guys, and in fact is on pace to be 2nd all time in rookie assists. Wall's issues are very correctable. His jumper will improve, and his turnovers will decrease over time. Wall has already been playing better defense lately and unlike Steph Curry, has the tools to be an elite defender. Wall also has already shown that he has a great attitude and wants to be a great player. I really think that he has the same competitive edge of an elite player, and that in combination with his elite physical tools, Wall could be a HOF caliber player, which I don't think is true of Curry. Trading Wall for Curry is just not going to happen. Curry and Fredette would definitely be a defensive disaster.

Regarding the Derrick Williams discussion, I really like him, but am not sure how he will do in the NBA. He really seems to overpower guys in the post more than relying on a variety of refined post moves, and I'm not sure he is going to be able to do the same thing against bigger, more athletic NBA competition. Now, that being said, Williams has been extraordinarily consistent. He produces every game, regardless of opponent, so maybe I'm not giving him enough credit.

Williams obviously isn't as good as Kyrie Irving, and probably isn't as good as Kanter. Beyond those two, I'm not really sure. Does he project better in the NBA than Sullinger? Better than Terrence Jones? It's just hard to say.

[closg00]

Check-out draft.nets Risers and Fallers, they say Williams or Sullinger could go #1. Jimmer is a big riser also.
http://www.nbadraft.net/nba-draft-stock-watch-1

[nate33]

As the season wears on, I'm drifting more and more towards advocating tanking, and less and less towards trying to win ball games and improve team morale. I'd be pretty happy with any of the four bigs DX currently projects in the 3-6 slot: Valanciunas, Sullinger, Williams or Kanter. It would really suck if we didn't land one of those guys.

[Ruzious]

Boom, actually I thought DWill out-quicked UCLA more than over-powered them. That's the thing about him - He's not a 1 trick pony - He can out-athlete the bigger guys and over-power the smaller guys. I think he could even play some 3 in the NBA. He's shown college 3 range - he just doesn't need to use it often. If he increases that to NBA 3 range, it'd be almost impossible to defend him. He has that kind of potential, imo.

[DMVleGeND]

nate, if you knew for sure Jimmer was roughly another Ben Gordon, would you trade Wall for Steph Curry and the rights to Fredette?

NO! I think that Fredette will have a solid career in the NBA, but I'm not sold on him becoming a good starter. And him and Curry would be the WORST defensive backcourt in the league. And I think that Wall will be better the both of them. Wall is untradeable, and I especially wouldn't trade him for this offer.

[pcbothwel]

I think we'll end up in a position to get one of the six players i mentioned earlier, and thats what matters to me. While I know we wont get a better picture til the summer, what do you guys think of Jeremy Tyler.

My prediction is that he goes round 1 (i know how crazy that sounds given the past 2 years with him). But the kid has enormous talent and if you read the article about him in Japan on the front page, it seems he has been grounded and could see a Brandon Jennings type maturation. He has some older American players and coached in Japan and seems to have taken his coaching seriously.
Discuss.

[DMVleGeND]

As the season wears on, I'm drifting more and more towards advocating tanking, and less and less towards trying to win ball games and improve team morale. I'd be pretty happy with any of the four bigs DX currently projects in the 3-6 slot: Valanciunas, Sullinger, Williams or Kanter. It would really suck if we didn't land one of those guys.

I agree. To tell you the truth, I think it would be better for us to finish 18-64 than 28-54. We obviously need more pieces, and it's going to be hard to obtain those pieces if your team is not very good and you're not picking very high in the draft, especially in a weak one. Free agents don't want to come to a bad team, so we need to obtain the best players we can get through the draft. Whether you want to upgrade at PF by taking Sullinger/Kanter, or want to take our SF of the future by taking P. Jones/T. Jones/Barnes, those names probably wont be available if we're picking 7th. Just look at the Pacers. There always mediocre, but they're never bad enough to get a really high lotto pick that's going to help them reach the next level, and it looks like it's going to happen to them again this season.

An that "losing mentality" stuff is BS. It's a myth.

Every player in the NBA has a massive ego, has never been told ‘no’ in their entire lives, is a multi-millionaire, and thinks the world revolves around them.

The idea that any of these guys would start to doubt themselves because they lose a lot is ridiculous. The Thunder lost 62 games Durant’s rookie year. That allowed them to get Russell Westbrook. Now they are money. The Magic lost 61 games Dwight Howard’s rookie year. Unfortunately, it was not enough, and they wound up picking 11th, and got Fran Vasquez.

It wont be garbage time if John Wall is out there. And if he crushes the other team’s lineups, well good, because that what he should. If he doesn’t, then he has a ways to go. Deron Williams played 3 years at Illinois. Surely the NBA scrubs are better competition than Williams faced his sophomore and junior year.

[Ed Wood]

He has way too much talent to be an absolute no for me but he's very much a second round guy for me not just with respect to how I'd value him but also because while I'm not going to pretend I know anything about the kid his issues suggest that the additional motivators of being overlooked and of not having a guaranteed contract to depend upon may be pretty positive for his development. I would absolutely hate trying to wrestle with the intangibles of teenagers as a GM but with Tyler how he handles questions in interviews might be very significant as well; if he's willing to accept responsibility for his issues in Europe that would be a positive step.

I'd draft five of him before taking a flyer on Renardo Sidney, and I think I'd want to try to buy a pick to spend on Tyler because there are other guys who have been floating around in the second who are safer bets and more likely to make you look smart as a GM for picking them.

Also Ahhhh! Somebody explain this Perry Jones is a Small Forward thing to me. Sure he's athletic and he's talented but I just don't see small forward any time in the near future for the guy and I worry he's catching the dreaded "what, rebound, defend in the post? I am a small forward, I don't do that" disease that has laid low many a skilled big guy.

[theboomking]

Boom, actually I thought DWill out-quicked UCLA more than over-powered them. That's the thing about him - He's not a 1 trick pony - He can out-athlete the bigger guys and over-power the smaller guys. I think he could even play some 3 in the NBA. He's shown college 3 range - he just doesn't need to use it often. If he increases that to NBA 3 range, it'd be almost impossible to defend him. He has that kind of potential, imo.

I watched the Arizona v Arizona state game. I have the UCLA game on DVR and I'm going to watch it when I can sneak more BB by the wife. I wasn't saying however that Williams isn't quick or a good athlete. I think he is both. I was saying that Williams seems to beat players based on his physical attributes, not on having a refined post game. This wouldn't worry me except I worry that his physical attributes won't translate to the NBA game. He is a good jumper, but not Blake Griffin. He doesn't have a great handle. He has barely adequate PF height. He has good, but not great length. When I watch Kanter at the Nike Hoop Summit, I see a guy with great feet and hands and power that will looks like he could be counted on to produce quickly at the NBA level. I just feel less sure of Williams. He could be an All Star. He could flame out.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Check-out draft.nets Risers and Fallers, they say Williams or Sullinger could go #1. Jimmer is a big riser also.
http://www.nbadraft.net/nba-draft-stock-watch-1

Aran Smith at nbadraft.net looks at the numbers the same way I do, apparently.

Repeating my post earlier, Derrick Williams IMO is the top prospect in this draft. Sullinger would be second, only because his power game won't immediately overwhelm at the next level. His weight will have to come down. Williams OTOH might even play SF like Carmelo does, which is a scary thought.

EDITED: Sullinger is really, really good at not forcing things and he's a very good passer--unlike Williams. I could change my opinion and rate him first--it's close.

[Ruzious]

Boom, actually I thought DWill out-quicked UCLA more than over-powered them. That's the thing about him - He's not a 1 trick pony - He can out-athlete the bigger guys and over-power the smaller guys. I think he could even play some 3 in the NBA. He's shown college 3 range - he just doesn't need to use it often. If he increases that to NBA 3 range, it'd be almost impossible to defend him. He has that kind of potential, imo.

I watched the Arizona v Arizona state game. I have the UCLA game on DVR and I'm going to watch it when I can sneak more BB by the wife. I wasn't saying however that Williams isn't quick or a good athlete. I think he is both. I was saying that Williams seems to beat players based on his physical attributes, not on having a refined post game. This wouldn't worry me except I worry that his physical attributes won't translate to the NBA game. He is a good jumper, but not Blake Griffin. He doesn't have a great handle. He has barely adequate PF height. He has good, but not great length. When I watch Kanter at the Nike Hoop Summit, I see a guy with great feet and hands and power that will looks like he could be counted on to produce quickly at the NBA level. I just feel less sure of Williams. He could be an All Star. He could flame out.

I agree with most of that, but actually I think he's a better leaper than Griffin. What Griffin has above other PF's imo - is incredible body control. He makes explosive moves without getting off balance. And he's ridiculously strong. One thing to check out - look at how DWill looks on the pick and roll. I think his explosiveness and skills work perfectly in it.

[theboomking]

Boom, actually I thought DWill out-quicked UCLA more than over-powered them. That's the thing about him - He's not a 1 trick pony - He can out-athlete the bigger guys and over-power the smaller guys. I think he could even play some 3 in the NBA. He's shown college 3 range - he just doesn't need to use it often. If he increases that to NBA 3 range, it'd be almost impossible to defend him. He has that kind of potential, imo.

I watched the Arizona v Arizona state game. I have the UCLA game on DVR and I'm going to watch it when I can sneak more BB by the wife. I wasn't saying however that Williams isn't quick or a good athlete. I think he is both. I was saying that Williams seems to beat players based on his physical attributes, not on having a refined post game. This wouldn't worry me except I worry that his physical attributes won't translate to the NBA game. He is a good jumper, but not Blake Griffin. He doesn't have a great handle. He has barely adequate PF height. He has good, but not great length. When I watch Kanter at the Nike Hoop Summit, I see a guy with great feet and hands and power that will looks like he could be counted on to produce quickly at the NBA level. I just feel less sure of Williams. He could be an All Star. He could flame out.

I agree with most of that, but actually I think he's a better leaper than Griffin. What Griffin has above other PF's imo - is incredible body control. He makes explosive moves without getting off balance. And he's ridiculously strong. One thing to check out - look at how DWill looks on the pick and roll. I think his explosiveness and skills work perfectly in it.

I agree and disagree. Griffin actually isn't an amazing leaper in the sense that he elevates a lot. His max vert reach was less than that of John Wall and his max vert was only 35 inches. Griffin gets up quickly and and effortlessly consistently. He doesn't seem to have to gather himself to approach his max vert, and like you said, his body control is awesome.

I think Williams will have a better vertical and max reach than Griffin. I've seen his head come even with the rim on multiple highlights. I do agree with the perception of some draft sites though that Williams has to build up a bit. He can certainly dunk flat footed off two feet, but he isn't going to be doing it over NBA players. Regardless, Williams is explosive, probably the most explosive front court player in the draft this year, other than CJ Leslie, who isn't nearly the player that Williams is, and Perry Jones, who doesn't produce at anywhere near the same level. I'm holding Honeycutt out of the conversation, because I think he is better as a 3/wing.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If points per shot is an indicator, I would be very leery of Tyler Honeycutt's 1.19. That is horrible and bustworthy FWIW.

http://espn.go.com/ncb/player/profile?playerId=46171

That and his equally pathetic .83 assists/turnover and his .678 free throw percentage send red flags up. Averages 13.7 points on 43 percent NCAA shooting. I dunno ....