Glen Rice Jr.

[Nivek]

Someone explain to me why missing training camp somehow affects Porter's ability to drain WIDE OPEN jumpers against other teams' scrubs?

The transition from college to the pros is tough on several levels -- NBA players are bigger, stronger, faster and better. That's before getting to the ENORMOUS difference in the sophistication of strategies, game plans, player knowledge. Most veterans know the opposing team's schemes extremely well. They know opposing player tendencies too. The NBA is a much harder game.

All of which is a long way of getting to what's probably the key for Porter: speed of the game. Training camp is just about the only time NBA teams practice at anything close to game speed. During the season, they're mostly doing walk-throughs and light scrimmaging. So, Porter is adjusting to the increased speed, size and strength, as well as the significant upgrade he's facing in the opposing players' knowledge and skill, in actual games. So, when he gets an open jumper, his mental "clock" is off and he's rushing or taking too much time and his shot is off. And he misses.

It doesn't help, by the way, that his shot selection is just as piss-poor as the rest of the team's. 43% of his FGA are from 16-23 feet, which is the worst shot in the game. This is one area where coaching can have an effect (if they'll teach the right things). The "right thing" in this case being: 2pt jumpers are bad shots. From outside three feet, Porter is shooting 27%.

This will get better -- he's too skilled to continue shooting that badly. It's going to take some time for him to adjust, though.

[fishercob]

It doesn't help, by the way, that his shot selection is just as piss-poor as the rest of the team's. 43% of his FGA are from 16-23 feet, which is the worst shot in the game. This is one area where coaching can have an effect (if they'll teach the right things). The "right thing" in this case being: 2pt jumpers are bad shots. From outside three feet, Porter is shooting 27%.

This will get better -- he's too skilled to continue shooting that badly. It's going to take some time for him to adjust, though.

This has Wittman's and his staff's fingerprints all over. They don't understand basic math. I have observed several instances in which Otto has caught the ball outside the line, and taken a dribble towards the hoop to step into a "better" shot. He believes -- and is likely being told -- that his range hasn't developed out to NBA three-point distance yet, so he's better off moving a step closer. This, of course, is all wrong. We saw it with Wall. We saw Cassell's comments last summer about Chris Singleton, etc. Hire Stan Van Gundy.

[Ruzious]

It doesn't help, by the way, that his shot selection is just as piss-poor as the rest of the team's. 43% of his FGA are from 16-23 feet, which is the worst shot in the game. This is one area where coaching can have an effect (if they'll teach the right things). The "right thing" in this case being: 2pt jumpers are bad shots. From outside three feet, Porter is shooting 27%.

This will get better -- he's too skilled to continue shooting that badly. It's going to take some time for him to adjust, though.

This has Wittman's and his staff's fingerprints all over. They don't understand basic math. I have observed several instances in which Otto has caught the ball outside the line, and taken a dribble towards the hoop to step into a "better" shot. He believes -- and is likely being told -- that his range hasn't developed out to NBA three-point distance yet, so he's better off moving a step closer. This, of course, is all wrong. We saw it with Wall. We saw Cassell's comments last summer about Chris Singleton, etc. Hire Stan Van Gundy.

Ryan Anderson learned under SVG, and Anderson is maybe the classic case of a guy "getting it" as far as what it takes to be most efficient player he could be.

[jivelikenice]

That's what I hate with this staff. They don't know what they want from their players.

Beal- he's s being taught and is being allowed to play an inefficient brand of basketball. He's a supposed "great shooter" who's never shot great, yet he's being asked to work on other aspects of his game before he's even mastered his own strength.

Jan- They had no idea what they had with Vesely. Theydrafted him as a SF, tried to bulk him up to play center, and now finally have him in a role he's suited to play.

Wall- one day they want pass first, then they want him to be aggressive, then if he slips and shoots too much ONE GAME they act as if the world is ending. Its also apparent he was told not to shoot 3s for some time. He did shoot a little too much in that Boston game, but when you have nobody else who can create their own shot and when you get handed the ball repeatedly with 5 seconds left on the shot clock, of course you're going to take some bad shots. Some of it is on him, but I'll take maximum effort from a guy who's trying too much versus passive basketball, especially when what occured against Boston was not the norm.

Otto- They tried to get Porter experience at the 2 starting this summer. Who in their right mind would think that's a position he could play?

Singleton- They've tried him at the 3 and as a stretch 4. He was used as a defensive sparkplug early in his career and now he's useless

[Dark Faze]

Someone explain to me why missing training camp somehow affects Porter's ability to drain WIDE OPEN jumpers against other teams' scrubs?

It doesn't help, by the way, that his shot selection is just as piss-poor as the rest of the team's. 43% of his FGA are from 16-23 feet, which is the worst shot in the game. This is one area where coaching can have an effect (if they'll teach the right things). The "right thing" in this case being: 2pt jumpers are bad shots. From outside three feet, Porter is shooting 27%.

This will get better -- he's too skilled to continue shooting that badly. It's going to take some time for him to adjust, though.

I tend not to agree with the logic that a three is better than a two based on math alone. What's not taken into the case for efficient two point shooters like Dirk, Bosh, Durant, etc is how that mid-range ability allows them to increase their free throw rate percentages. You aren't likely to be fouled often shooting threes, whereas efficient two point jumpshooters can earn multiple trips to the line this way, as well as become more efficient slashers due to their versatility.

http://vorped.com/bball/index.php/playe ... 3-2014-REG

^ Above we see Durants mid-range percentage which is ridiculous, but if we were able to create a TS percentage based off of fouls drawn in this area, we'd likely see that the mid-range selection is just a much more efficient shot for Durant than the three.

I think Porter will learn how to get better looks, but I don't think that the mid-range shot should be taken away from him. He's too long and has too quick of a trigger to remove that from his arsenal.

[dckingsfan]

Someone explain to me why missing training camp somehow affects Porter's ability to drain WIDE OPEN jumpers against other teams' scrubs?

It doesn't help, by the way, that his shot selection is just as piss-poor as the rest of the team's. 43% of his FGA are from 16-23 feet, which is the worst shot in the game. This is one area where coaching can have an effect (if they'll teach the right things). The "right thing" in this case being: 2pt jumpers are bad shots. From outside three feet, Porter is shooting 27%.

This will get better -- he's too skilled to continue shooting that badly. It's going to take some time for him to adjust, though.

I tend not to agree with the logic that a three is better than a two based on math alone. What's not taken into the case for efficient two point shooters like Dirk, Bosh, Durant, etc is how that mid-range ability allows them to increase their free throw rate percentages. You aren't likely to be fouled often shooting threes, whereas efficient two point jumpshooters can earn multiple trips to the line this way, as well as become more efficient slashers due to their versatility.

http://vorped.com/bball/index.php/playe ... 3-2014-REG

^ Above we see Durants mid-range percentage which is ridiculous, but if we were able to create a TS percentage based off of fouls drawn in this area, we'd likely see that the mid-range selection is just a much more efficient shot for Durant than the three.

I think Porter will learn how to get better looks, but I don't think that the mid-range shot should be taken away from him. He's too long and has too quick of a trigger to remove that from his arsenal.

Agreed, the perfect example of this is Kevin Martin... he is terrific at causing contact and improving his offensive efficiency. Whereas Beal (Porter doesn't have a big enough sample size) is getting chased off the line, taking one step inside the 3 point line and shooting the long 2. Harden is another good example.

Both take the 3 when it is given, both make teams run at them to get them off the line - and that is when they draw contact.

[Nivek]

Someone explain to me why missing training camp somehow affects Porter's ability to drain WIDE OPEN jumpers against other teams' scrubs?

It doesn't help, by the way, that his shot selection is just as piss-poor as the rest of the team's. 43% of his FGA are from 16-23 feet, which is the worst shot in the game. This is one area where coaching can have an effect (if they'll teach the right things). The "right thing" in this case being: 2pt jumpers are bad shots. From outside three feet, Porter is shooting 27%.

This will get better -- he's too skilled to continue shooting that badly. It's going to take some time for him to adjust, though.

I tend not to agree with the logic that a three is better than a two based on math alone. What's not taken into the case for efficient two point shooters like Dirk, Bosh, Durant, etc is how that mid-range ability allows them to increase their free throw rate percentages. You aren't likely to be fouled often shooting threes, whereas efficient two point jumpshooters can earn multiple trips to the line this way, as well as become more efficient slashers due to their versatility.

http://vorped.com/bball/index.php/playe ... 3-2014-REG

^ Above we see Durants mid-range percentage which is ridiculous, but if we were able to create a TS percentage based off of fouls drawn in this area, we'd likely see that the mid-range selection is just a much more efficient shot for Durant than the three.

I think Porter will learn how to get better looks, but I don't think that the mid-range shot should be taken away from him. He's too long and has too quick of a trigger to remove that from his arsenal.

You're welcome to disagree, but you're arguing about the general by citing exceptions. But, even the exceptions don't really make the case. For guys like Nowitzki or Durant, 2pt jumpers aren't necessarily bad shots, but their aren't many guys like those two. Or Bosh.

In general, it's better to take shots near the rim or from the 3pt line -- to avoid 2pt jump shots. The reason is not merely that 3>2, it's that the shooting percentage for most players is usually pretty close to the same on 2pt jumpers as it on 3pt attempts. That extra point, though makes a significant difference -- it's possible to shoot a significantly lower percentage on 3s and still have it be a better shot than a 2pt jumper.

Bosh, for example, is shooting a very good 49% from 10-23 feet this season. He's shooting 37% from 3pt range. But, his efg on those 10-23 footers is .489 and his efg on those 3pt attempts is .558.

Nowitzki's percentage on long 2s is .474; his efg on 3pt attempts is .586. For Durant, it's .465 vs. .597.

Getting fouled is extremely valuable. But, 57% of shooting fouls this season have been called basically at the rim. There are relatively few fouls being called on mid-to-long range jumpers.

Which supports what us stat goobers have been saying for awhile now -- that efficient offenses seek to get shots at-rim and from the 3pt line (ideally from the corners). At-rim attempts go in at a high rate, AND are more likely to draw fouls. 3pt shots go in at about the same rate as 2pt jumpers, but come with a 1pt bonus.

Wall this season is shooting .361 on 2pt jumpers; .302 on 3s. But, with the 1pt bonus, his efg on 3s is .453. He'd have to draw a TON of fouls in the mid-to-long range 2pt areas to make it a shot close to as valuable as threes -- even with the subpar shooting percentage from 3. Wall's highest yield fga: at-rim (.659) and 3pt attempts.

[hands11]

Long live Randy and the long two.

[AFM]

Someone explain to me why missing training camp somehow affects Porter's ability to drain WIDE OPEN jumpers against other teams' scrubs?

The transition from college to the pros is tough on several levels -- NBA players are bigger, stronger, faster and better. That's before getting to the ENORMOUS difference in the sophistication of strategies, game plans, player knowledge. Most veterans know the opposing team's schemes extremely well. They know opposing player tendencies too. The NBA is a much harder game.

All of which is a long way of getting to what's probably the key for Porter: speed of the game. Training camp is just about the only time NBA teams practice at anything close to game speed. During the season, they're mostly doing walk-throughs and light scrimmaging. So, Porter is adjusting to the increased speed, size and strength, as well as the significant upgrade he's facing in the opposing players' knowledge and skill, in actual games. So, when he gets an open jumper, his mental "clock" is off and he's rushing or taking too much time and his shot is off. And he misses.

It doesn't help, by the way, that his shot selection is just as piss-poor as the rest of the team's. 43% of his FGA are from 16-23 feet, which is the worst shot in the game. This is one area where coaching can have an effect (if they'll teach the right things). The "right thing" in this case being: 2pt jumpers are bad shots. From outside three feet, Porter is shooting 27%.

This will get better -- he's too skilled to continue shooting that badly. It's going to take some time for him to adjust, though.

I get all of that young sir. I just seem to remember being told by every "expert" that Porter was the most NBA ready player in the draft, yet I haven't seen a single decent play from him. When he shoots his arms look like one of those gigantic crossbows they use to bombard the orcs in Lord of The Rings.

[GhostsOfGil]

When he shoots his arms look like one of those gigantic crossbows they use to bombard the orcs in Lord of The Rings.

[dckingsfan]

.... It's going to take some time for him to adjust, though.

And that is the million dollar question.... how long? Is it going to take him Beal time or Vesely time?

[doclinkin]

It doesn't help, by the way, that his shot selection is just as piss-poor as the rest of the team's. 43% of his FGA are from 16-23 feet, which is the worst shot in the game. This is one area where coaching can have an effect (if they'll teach the right things). The "right thing" in this case being: 2pt jumpers are bad shots. From outside three feet, Porter is shooting 27%.

This will get better -- he's too skilled to continue shooting that badly. It's going to take some time for him to adjust, though.

This has Wittman's and his staff's fingerprints all over. They don't understand basic math. I have observed several instances in which Otto has caught the ball outside the line, and taken a dribble towards the hoop to step into a "better" shot. He believes -- and is likely being told -- that his range hasn't developed out to NBA three-point distance yet, so he's better off moving a step closer. This, of course, is all wrong. We saw it with Wall. We saw Cassell's comments last summer about Chris Singleton, etc. Hire Stan Van Gundy.

This has Flip's fingerprints all over it, considering it seems to me Randy's offense is in many sets an adapted version of the Flip offense. That is to say, it's a classic case of outsmarting yourself. Flip liked the long 2 precisely because no one worked hard to guard it, therefore it becomes a marginally higher percentage shot than it ought to be. 'Take what the defense gives you' is the mantra. Now granted, they give you that shot because you're more likely to miss it, but hey, it's an open shot.

Of course, as Kev alludes to above, open shots don't get fouled. Its axiomatic. If no one is there to foul you you don't get a trip to the line. So you rob cheap opportunities for free points, and also fail to soften up opponent line-ups if you don't tag their starters with a few of their 5 demerits early. And too, you're screwed in the playoffs when teams have time to adjust and suddenly do guard your gimmes.

I like Randy's rapport with the team, his no-BS persona. I like less his tight rope and short bench, no great talent for developing what he does have at the back end of the bench (not all his fault, but still, others do it better. Phil Jackson was a master at finding useful minutes out of scrubs 10-15). And some of the lingering Flip concepts bug me.

We're better this year than in the past though, with more shooters spread to the corners and more P&R plays right down the middle. That said scouts now have caught on to JWall's cross court passes, and savvy defenders are laying in the weeds looking to sucker him into turnovers. That'd be an issue in any playoff series.

[AFM]

[Zonkerbl]

When I was sixteen I was an exchange student in Argentina and my host brother was a professional basketball player, so they took me down to the gym to learn how to play. They wouldn't let me shoot jumpers left handed.

Turns out, my right shoulder isn't as flexible as my left and I can't bring my right elbow in front like you're supposed to, so my form shooting right handed looks like Otto's.

Spent DECADES trying to get that damn jumper to go down. Finally, one day I try shooting left handed and the damn thing floats into the basket like it had eyes. RAZZA FRAGGIN ARGENTINIANS!!!!

[Nivek]

.... It's going to take some time for him to adjust, though.

And that is the million dollar question.... how long? Is it going to take him Beal time or Vesely time?

My guess is that he'll get incrementally better during the season, but will take a real step forward next season. His rookie season is probably going to be a wash.

[dckingsfan]

.... It's going to take some time for him to adjust, though.

And that is the million dollar question.... how long? Is it going to take him Beal time or Vesely time?

My guess is that he'll get incrementally better during the season, but will take a real step forward next season. His rookie season is probably going to be a wash.

If he can contribute next year (along with Rice), that would be fine. If Ariza is back, that takes care of the wings.

Now, if we could just fix the frontcourt and add a PG.

[Nivek]

Someone explain to me why missing training camp somehow affects Porter's ability to drain WIDE OPEN jumpers against other teams' scrubs?

The transition from college to the pros is tough on several levels -- NBA players are bigger, stronger, faster and better. That's before getting to the ENORMOUS difference in the sophistication of strategies, game plans, player knowledge. Most veterans know the opposing team's schemes extremely well. They know opposing player tendencies too. The NBA is a much harder game.

All of which is a long way of getting to what's probably the key for Porter: speed of the game. Training camp is just about the only time NBA teams practice at anything close to game speed. During the season, they're mostly doing walk-throughs and light scrimmaging. So, Porter is adjusting to the increased speed, size and strength, as well as the significant upgrade he's facing in the opposing players' knowledge and skill, in actual games. So, when he gets an open jumper, his mental "clock" is off and he's rushing or taking too much time and his shot is off. And he misses.

It doesn't help, by the way, that his shot selection is just as piss-poor as the rest of the team's. 43% of his FGA are from 16-23 feet, which is the worst shot in the game. This is one area where coaching can have an effect (if they'll teach the right things). The "right thing" in this case being: 2pt jumpers are bad shots. From outside three feet, Porter is shooting 27%.

This will get better -- he's too skilled to continue shooting that badly. It's going to take some time for him to adjust, though.

I get all of that young sir. I just seem to remember being told by every "expert" that Porter was the most NBA ready player in the draft, yet I haven't seen a single decent play from him. When he shoots his arms look like one of those gigantic crossbows they use to bombard the orcs in Lord of The Rings.

Well, which experts? There are plenty of folks passing themselves off as experts by recycling stuff they've read on the Internet or watching a few games on TV.

In my stat-driven draft analysis, Porter looked like a good prospect. There wasn't anything to suggest he was more NBA ready than players with a rating. When I watched him play, he looked like a good college player -- not necessarily any more or less NBA ready than other good college players.

[jivelikenice]

Backk to Rice, I watched one of his D league games yesterday. His shooting was on point. Its probably a combination of him needing more attempts/PT to get comfortable in the NBA game or just time for the game to slow down for him. He also put up his points without being ball dominant at all which I found encouraging. It was a combination or freeing himself up without the ball, getting to the ft line, and driving in. Our 3 other wings seem to need shots created for them but he offers something interesting; an ability to do a more than just be a 3&D spot up player while not being a high usage/ball dominant player. He could fit nicely next to John/Brad. His rebounding is also solid.

[deneem4]

Rice can be a quality starter.. he jus need actual playing time as a starter with wall and beal...He's better than porter and Webster right now honestly

[dckingsfan]

Rice can be a quality starter.. he jus need actual playing time as a starter with wall and beal...He's better than porter and Webster right now honestly

You lost me with better than Webster... he might have the potential to be better than Webster, but that isn't the case right now.