Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing (Part 2)

[rockymac52]

I think some people are also overlooking the fact that even if you don't think Ariza and/or Gortat are our best options going forward, it's still in our best interest to re-sign both of them, and then trade them at the deadline if need be.

Once again, it really appears to be a use it or lose it type of situation. We can either have one or both of them (and Booker/Seraphin), or not. Even if you don't like Ariza that much as a player, or the salary that he may command this summer, he's still clearly a solid player that has decent value around the league. We might not be able to trade him for a decent 1st round pick or anything like that, but there are certainly a lot of teams that could use his services and would be happy to acquire him. If we lose Ariza and/or Gortat, we are going to have serious depth issues (this coming after a season where we already have serious depth issues as is). By re-signing them and then seeking out a deadline trade, we can assure ourselves some sort of asset, be it a draft pick or a collection of role players, instead of nothing.

It's kinda similar to the situation the Pacers are going to find themselves in this summer with Lance Stephenson (and to a much lesser extent, Evan Turner). If they choose not to re-sign him because his price tag gets too high for their liking, they're still at or slightly above the cap, and they have very limited options as far as acquiring replacement talent. The CBA constructed the salary cap in a manner that makes it much wiser for teams such as the Pacers with Stephenson and the Wizards with Gortat and Ariza to re-sign them, even if it costs a few extra million dollars or they aren't in love with the player, because those players are assets and role players (good ones too!), and they can therefore be subsequently traded for other assets and role players. Or we can just let them walk and get nothing in return.

[rockymac52]

I haven't been around these boards a lot lately, so I may have missed this, but has there been any discussion as to what we expect all of our impending free agents to cost on the open market?

I've seen plenty of predictions in the $8-12 million/year range for Gortat and $7-9 million/year for Ariza, but what about our other guys? Trevor Booker? Kevin Seraphin? Garrett Temple? Chris Singleton? Al Harrington?

I can't see Harrington, Singleton, or Temple getting more than the vet minimum, regardless of if we even want them back on the team next year (I could see Temple returning, but I don't really care one way or the other since he should be comfortably sitting at the end of the bench).

As for Booker and Seraphin, I actually have interest in re-signing them (Booker more so than Seraphin). How much do we think they're going to command on the open market, and do we think they want to stay in DC? Since they're both RFA, at what point would we not match an offer sheet for both of them?

I think Booker is a crucial cog for us down low, especially with Nene's injury history. I also think Booker is severely underrated throughout the league, and is probably completely overlooked by most fan bases (although not the other teams' front offices, I would hope). My guess is he'd want to return and that we'd also want him back at a something like $3 million/year for 2 or 3 years. That would be a phenomenal value, IMO.

As for Seraphin, I know there are mixed opinions on him, but I still like him for what he is. I think he's still developing, and I'm encouraged by his progress. He has a lot of talent on offense already, he just needs to improve his shot selection. He's already doing a lot better in this regard than he did last year, IMO (that's not saying much). He's also a big body who can play C and protect the rim decently. That's a potential two-way big man in the making, which is a very valuable thing. I'm not sure what to expect for his contract though. On one hand, he's young, big, and shows some promise, but on the other hand, he's our 4th or 5th big man currently and he can be very frustrating to watch at times. I'm inclined to think that we'll be able to re-sign him for the vet minimum, possibly on a 2 year deal even. I mean, if DeJuan Blair could only get a minimum deal last summer, how is a guy like Seraphin going to command more? At most I would think he'd get a 2 year deal for $2 million a year. Thoughts?

Also feel free to include your predictions for Ariza and Gortat once again, just so everything's in one place.

[closg00]

Congrats to Ernie for helping the Wizards achieve this designation.
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/sports/the- ... ry.html/3/

Nobody has props for Ernie? We're #1

[dckingsfan]

We're #1
We're #1
We're #1
We're #1
We're #1

[mohammed10]

Congrats to Ernie for helping the Wizards achieve this designation.
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/sports/the- ... ry.html/3/

Nobody has props for Ernie? We're #1

...but all he has to do is (re)construct a derilict team in the watered down Eastern Conference, and all is right in Turd's world.

Hell, most of us are fully expecting an extension for this so-called GM. His regime of below mediocrity will likely continue.

[Dat2U]

I haven't been around these boards a lot lately, so I may have missed this, but has there been any discussion as to what we expect all of our impending free agents to cost on the open market?

I've seen plenty of predictions in the $8-12 million/year range for Gortat and $7-9 million/year for Ariza, but what about our other guys? Trevor Booker? Kevin Seraphin? Garrett Temple? Chris Singleton? Al Harrington?

I can't see Harrington, Singleton, or Temple getting more than the vet minimum, regardless of if we even want them back on the team next year (I could see Temple returning, but I don't really care one way or the other since he should be comfortably sitting at the end of the bench).

As for Booker and Seraphin, I actually have interest in re-signing them (Booker more so than Seraphin). How much do we think they're going to command on the open market, and do we think they want to stay in DC? Since they're both RFA, at what point would we not match an offer sheet for both of them?

I think Booker is a crucial cog for us down low, especially with Nene's injury history. I also think Booker is severely underrated throughout the league, and is probably completely overlooked by most fan bases (although not the other teams' front offices, I would hope). My guess is he'd want to return and that we'd also want him back at a something like $3 million/year for 2 or 3 years. That would be a phenomenal value, IMO.

As for Seraphin, I know there are mixed opinions on him, but I still like him for what he is. I think he's still developing, and I'm encouraged by his progress. He has a lot of talent on offense already, he just needs to improve his shot selection. He's already doing a lot better in this regard than he did last year, IMO (that's not saying much). He's also a big body who can play C and protect the rim decently. That's a potential two-way big man in the making, which is a very valuable thing. I'm not sure what to expect for his contract though. On one hand, he's young, big, and shows some promise, but on the other hand, he's our 4th or 5th big man currently and he can be very frustrating to watch at times. I'm inclined to think that we'll be able to re-sign him for the vet minimum, possibly on a 2 year deal even. I mean, if DeJuan Blair could only get a minimum deal last summer, how is a guy like Seraphin going to command more? At most I would think he'd get a 2 year deal for $2 million a year. Thoughts?

Also feel free to include your predictions for Ariza and Gortat once again, just so everything's in one place.

Question in my mind is whether Temple, Singleton, Seraphin, Gooden or Harrington are reliable rotation players off the bench. If the answer to that is no, then I wouldn't be investing significant resources or effort to signing any of them. Seraphin might have a little interest from other teams based on some promise he's shown in the past but the others are likely settling for minimum salaried deals (if they can even get them).

I could see Temple as a utility 5th guard. Maybe he's someone I'd invite back on a non-guaranteed deal. Seraphin is probably worth the minimum as a 3rd string center somewhere if not here. To the others I'd likely say God Bless...

Booker is a little different he's an actual rotation worthy player. Not starter material however. The chinks in his armor are size, health and P&R defense. I could see Booker getting $3-4 million a yr on a 3 yr deal. I'd personally take a wait & see attitude with Booker. If he turns out to be one of the guys that slips through the cracks, 2yrs at $5 or $6 mil would be palatable for me. If another team aggressively moves on him quickly, I'd move on quickly because he's fairly replaceable.

Gortat is playing himself into a pretty sizable deal. I think Dallas may make another strong run at him. I also don't seen any scenario where Gortat would accept anything less than three guaranteed years, likely with a fourth partially guaranteed. I'd say he could get anything from $12 to $15 mil per 3 or 4 yrs on this next deal ($36 to 60 mil guaranteed). Keep in mind he's currently underpaid at around $7 mil. There's no discount coming.

Ariza too is looking like a better bet than is a slowly declining Loul Deng or the over-inflated ego of Rudy Gay in free agency. A well known and vetted 4th option for a contender will easily command a bigger than MLE sized offer at this stage. I think his range is $8 to $12 mil per 3 or 4 yrs ($24 to $48 mil guaranteed).

Signs that the apocolypse is upon us: Wizards re-sign Gortat, Ariza & Booker for a combined $100 million dollars or more.

[verbal8]

I think Booker is a crucial cog for us down low, especially with Nene's injury history. I also think Booker is severely underrated throughout the league, and is probably completely overlooked by most fan bases (although not the other teams' front offices, I would hope). My guess is he'd want to return and that we'd also want him back at a something like $3 million/year for 2 or 3 years. That would be a phenomenal value, IMO.

The advantage of Booker is he is a restricted free agent. As long as the Wizards offer the Qualifying Offer, they can match any offer sheet he signs. If some team signs him to a crazy deal (MLE for example), you have to let him walk. I think the price you mention is about right and probably what he ends up signing for.

[nate33]

[Ariza too is looking like a better bet than is a slowly declining Loul Deng or the over-inflated ego of Rudy Gay in free agency. A well known and vetted 4th option for a contender will easily command a bigger than MLE sized offer at this stage. I think his range is $8 to $12 mil per 3 or 4 yrs ($24 to $48 mil guaranteed).

But contenders don't have that kind of cap room. Dallas could pay him a lot as a replacement for Marion, but that's pretty much the only team has both the cap space and realistic title aspirations. And I don't see them throwing around $12M per year. Dallas usually is very good at avoiding overpaying.

I think Ariza is "worth" about $7-8M a year but I'm not certain he'll get it. The reality of the new CBA is that non-big-man role players don't get much more than the MLE. I'd pay him 9M or 10M a year for a 2-year deal.

[FAH1223]

LOL! Tis NYT writer needs to calm down. Glowing praise from Knicks land for EG.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/13/sport ... ports&_r=3

[Nivek]

LOL! Tis NYT writer needs to calm down. Glowing praise from Knicks land for EG.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/13/sport ... ports&_r=3

Hmm, it's been almost a week since I ripped Wise's article...

[nate33]

Question in my mind is whether Temple, Singleton, Seraphin, Gooden or Harrington are reliable rotation players off the bench. If the answer to that is no, then I wouldn't be investing significant resources or effort to signing any of them. Seraphin might have a little interest from other teams based on some promise he's shown in the past but the others are likely settling for minimum salaried deals (if they can even get them).

Singleton and Harrington certainly aren't reliable rotation players. I'd waive them. There is no compelling need to keep them on our roster. If extra bodies are needed, there will be better players in free agency or even out of the D-League.

I still don't mind Temple as our 14th man for the vet minimum. He's a useful situational sub when you need a defensive stop. That far down the bench, I'd rather have a specialist like him than a jack of all trades who does nothing better than average.

Gooden would be great to bring back for the vet minimum. Any competent veteran on a vet minimum deal is a good bargain.

Seraphin is the biggest dilemma. He's young, athletic, strong and skilled with a very good midrange shot and a solid post game. But he's also non-productive other than being a pretty decent post defender. I hate the idea of letting that kind of potential walk away, but I also hate the idea of paying a guy who has statistically stunk up the court for 3 years. Seraphin's qualifying offer is $3.9M. I would not extend it. I'd let him become an unrestricted free agent. If we could keep him for something in the $2M a year range, I'd probably do it. If he costs more, I'd probably let him walk.

Booker's qualifying offer is $3.4M. I would extend it (assuming we're not going all-in for Monroe or some other free agent). Ultimately, I'd try and sign him to a 2-year, $7M contract.

[Dat2U]

LOL! Tis NYT writer needs to calm down. Glowing praise from Knicks land for EG.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/13/sport ... ports&_r=3

Hmm, it's been almost a week since I ripped Wise's article...

Any Wizards rumors or glowing Wizards articles typically come from NY it seems.

[closg00]

LOL! Tis NYT writer needs to calm down. Glowing praise from Knicks land for EG.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/13/sport ... ports&_r=3

This and the Wise article combined with a playoff appearance, make's Ernie's new contract a no-brainer for Ted. This recent golden press has Ernie breaking out the victory cigar early.

[queridiculo]

The second the Wizards executed the trade for Gortat it seemed obvious to me that Leonsis had no intention of replacing Grunfeld.

We're stuck with this fraud forever.

[Dat2U]

I think some people are also overlooking the fact that even if you don't think Ariza and/or Gortat are our best options going forward, it's still in our best interest to re-sign both of them, and then trade them at the deadline if need be.

Once again, it really appears to be a use it or lose it type of situation. We can either have one or both of them (and Booker/Seraphin), or not. Even if you don't like Ariza that much as a player, or the salary that he may command this summer, he's still clearly a solid player that has decent value around the league. We might not be able to trade him for a decent 1st round pick or anything like that, but there are certainly a lot of teams that could use his services and would be happy to acquire him. If we lose Ariza and/or Gortat, we are going to have serious depth issues (this coming after a season where we already have serious depth issues as is). By re-signing them and then seeking out a deadline trade, we can assure ourselves some sort of asset, be it a draft pick or a collection of role players, instead of nothing.

It's kinda similar to the situation the Pacers are going to find themselves in this summer with Lance Stephenson (and to a much lesser extent, Evan Turner). If they choose not to re-sign him because his price tag gets too high for their liking, they're still at or slightly above the cap, and they have very limited options as far as acquiring replacement talent. The CBA constructed the salary cap in a manner that makes it much wiser for teams such as the Pacers with Stephenson and the Wizards with Gortat and Ariza to re-sign them, even if it costs a few extra million dollars or they aren't in love with the player, because those players are assets and role players (good ones too!), and they can therefore be subsequently traded for other assets and role players. Or we can just let them walk and get nothing in return.

As the old saying goes (and I've used it a couple of times here), "If you need a 2nd trade to validate the 1st acquisition/trade/signing, then the 1st move probably wasn't the right move in the 1st place."

[AFM]

The second the Wizards executed the trade for Gortat it seemed obvious to me that Leonsis had no intention of replacing Grunfeld.

We're stuck with this fraud forever.

Father time has an undefeated record my friend

[Nigel Tufnel]

BulletsForever.com reports that a fan at the Wizards vs. Bobcats game made a half court shot and won a whopping $500. If that doesn't sum up the capabilities of the Wizards front office, I don't know what does.

[payitforward]

LOL! Tis NYT writer needs to calm down. Glowing praise from Knicks land for EG.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/13/sport ... ports&_r=3

Hmm, it's been almost a week since I ripped Wise's article...

Maybe the Knicks will hire him away? Please... PLEASE!

[payitforward]

As the old saying goes (and I've used it a couple of times here), "If you need a 2nd trade to validate the 1st acquisition/trade/signing, then the 1st move probably wasn't the right move in the 1st place."

Worse yet, in our case, we keep needing that 2d trade just to get rid of the guy we acquired first!

We had to give a guy we picked #6, a guy who was our prime off-season FA target, and a Rd2 pick -- all to get the oldest point guard in the league!

[verbal8]

As the old saying goes (and I've used it a couple of times here), "If you need a 2nd trade to validate the 1st acquisition/trade/signing, then the 1st move probably wasn't the right move in the 1st place."

Worse yet, in our case, we keep needing that 2d trade just to get rid of the guy we acquired first!

We had to give a guy we picked #6, a guy who was our prime off-season FA target, and a Rd2 pick -- all to get the oldest point guard in the league!

How do you define in the league? Do you have to play or just get paid? Nash would qualify as older if it is open to players only on the payroll.

I do 100% agree with your broader point.