Political Roundtable Part IX

[nate33]

Nate, your feelings about the article:

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/04/america-tyranny-donald-trump.html

I'll give a full review when I have the time. For now, I'll just say that Sullivan is missing the primary point.

The rise of Trump is very simple. Trump has recognized that it is no longer a batter between conservative and liberal. It is a battle between nationalists and globalists. The majority of Americans are nationalists. The majority of the pundit class are globalists. They will continue to get this wrong until it is too late.

Trump is going to be our next president. And if he isn't our next president, it won't be the end of the nationalist phenomena. The likely result of a Trump defeat will be that the next nationalist candidate will be someone far worse than Trump, and he'll be energizing an even more angry base who perceive that the country that they built is being given away by the elites.

Europe is the canary in the coal mine. They are a decade ahead of us in this nationalism versus globalism struggle. But since they have less free speech over there, the globalist elites were able to push their agenda to a far greater extreme, and allow a migration of tens of millions of non-European Muslims in their midsts. With little capacity to elect their version of Trump, they will be forced to react in a much less peaceful manner. There will be violence in Europe. A lot of it. Liberals, and globalist conservatives will have a lot of blood on their hands. I just hope it doesn't happen here.

[TGW]

"Trump is going to be our next president."

Keep dreaming Nate. Trump's disapproval rating is teetering between 60-70%. You live in a fantasy world if you think Trump stands a chance in a general election.

[dckingsfan]

Fascinating

[nate33]

"Trump is going to be our next president."

Keep dreaming Nate. Trump's disapproval rating is teetering between 60-70%. You live in a fantasy world if you think Trump stands a chance in a general election.

Every single pundit said the same thing about Trump in the early stages of the GOP primary. Underestimate him at your own risk.

There is no doubt that Trump has high negatives. But he has time. The more people get to know Trump, the more they start liking him. He's funny, personable and authentic. The more people get to know Clinton, the more they dislike her. She's a phony and has an irritating voice and demeanor. The fact is, Trump isn't the racist everyone is making him out to be. He said bad things about "Mexicans", not "Latinos". He embraces Americans of Mexican heritage, just not actual Mexicans. Trump places America first. That's a more powerful message than you think it is. He will eventually make this a contest between Americans versus globalists, with Clinton on the side of the globalists.

[TGW]

"Trump is going to be our next president."

Keep dreaming Nate. Trump's disapproval rating is teetering between 60-70%. You live in a fantasy world if you think Trump stands a chance in a general election.

Every single pundit said the same thing about Trump in the early stages of the GOP primary. Underestimate him at your own risk.

There is no doubt that Trump has high negatives. But he has time. The more people get to know Trump, the more they start liking him. He's funny, personable and authentic. The more people get to know Clinton, the more they dislike her. She's a phony and has an irritating voice and demeanor. The fact is, Trump isn't the racist everyone is making him out to be. He said bad things about "Mexicans", not "Latinos". He embraces Americans of Mexican heritage, just not actual Mexicans. Trump places America first. That's a more powerful message than you think it is. He will eventually make this a contest between Americans versus globalists, with Clinton on the side of the globalists.

I'm not going to argue about perception with you because your perception is hilariously wrong. His Latino approval rating is in the low teens. And the whole globalist vs. nationalist thing isn't valid...if that was the case, Bernie Sanders would be beating Clinton. Just to burst your bubble, here is reality:

[dckingsfan]

Nate, your feelings about the article:

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/04/america-tyranny-donald-trump.html

I'll give a full review when I have the time. For now, I'll just say that Sullivan is missing the primary point.

The rise of Trump is very simple. Trump has recognized that it is no longer a batter between conservative and liberal. It is a battle between nationalists and globalists. The majority of Americans are nationalists. The majority of the pundit class are globalists. They will continue to get this wrong until it is too late.

Trump is going to be our next president. And if he isn't our next president, it won't be the end of the nationalist phenomena. The likely result of a Trump defeat will be that the next nationalist candidate will be someone far worse than Trump, and he'll be energizing an even more angry base who perceive that the country that they built is being given away by the elites.

Europe is the canary in the coal mine. They are a decade ahead of us in this nationalism versus globalism struggle. But since they have less free speech over there, the globalist elites were able to push their agenda to a far greater extreme, and allow a migration of tens of millions of non-European Muslims in their midsts. With little capacity to elect their version of Trump, they will be forced to react in a much less peaceful manner. There will be violence in Europe. A lot of it. Liberals, and globalist conservatives will have a lot of blood on their hands. I just hope it doesn't happen here.

Interesting framing of the issue. I think this is a rationalization of a demagogue. I do think this is the best way forward for Trump supporters though.

I do think if Democrats take Trump lightly they will be very surprised at the outcome.

[nate33]

Interesting framing of the issue. I think this is a rationalization of a demagogue. I do think this is the best way forward for Trump supporters though.

I do think if Democrats take Trump lightly they will be very surprised at the outcome.

Continuing to dismiss Trump as a "demagogue" or a "fascist" is exactly what I'm talking about. It's a dismissal of the fact that there are a huge number of Americans with legitimate grievances who are not being acknowledged by either party. We're talking 30-35% of Americans, and it'll be closer to 50% by the time Trump is done.

Nobody in the elite class is even willing to engage the intellectual merits of the nationalism stance. They just disregard, dismiss and belittle. You don't dismiss such a large segment of the population without repercussions.

[nate33]

"Trump is going to be our next president."

Keep dreaming Nate. Trump's disapproval rating is teetering between 60-70%. You live in a fantasy world if you think Trump stands a chance in a general election.

Every single pundit said the same thing about Trump in the early stages of the GOP primary. Underestimate him at your own risk.

There is no doubt that Trump has high negatives. But he has time. The more people get to know Trump, the more they start liking him. He's funny, personable and authentic. The more people get to know Clinton, the more they dislike her. She's a phony and has an irritating voice and demeanor. The fact is, Trump isn't the racist everyone is making him out to be. He said bad things about "Mexicans", not "Latinos". He embraces Americans of Mexican heritage, just not actual Mexicans. Trump places America first. That's a more powerful message than you think it is. He will eventually make this a contest between Americans versus globalists, with Clinton on the side of the globalists.

I'm not going to argue about perception with you because your perception is hilariously wrong. His Latino approval rating is in the low teens. And the whole globalist vs. nationalist thing isn't valid...if that was the case, Bernie Sanders would be beating Clinton. Just to burst your bubble, here is reality:

And here are Clinton's numbers. Notice the trend:

[TGW]

Yea, it's going to be a fight between who is more unpopular, and Trump is going to be the one on the short end of the stick.

BTW I can't stand either candidate, so I have no dog in the race. But it's clear who is the more unpopular candidate. Just wait until the mainstream media starts ramping up the Trump is "a crazy non-insider" rhetoric like they did with Sanders. It will be game over. Hillary is the devil we know.

[nate33]

Yea, it's going to be a fight between who is more unpopular, and Trump is going to be the one on the short end of the stick.

BTW I can't stand either candidate, so I have no dog in the race. But it's clear who is the more unpopular candidate. Just wait until the mainstream media starts ramping up the Trump is "a crazy non-insider" rhetoric like they did with Sanders. It will be game over. Hillary is the devil we know.

I think Sanders' performance despite overwhelming institutional and monetary support for Clinton is evidence that Trump will succeed, not fail. Sanders came real close. Trump will compete like Sanders, but he has more charisma. Also, the media gives him a big microphone because he gets ratings.

[nate33]

One more note about polling. Over the last several states, Trump has massively outperformed his poll numbers - particularly in the Northeast. I think much of it is that people are still a little embarrassed to admit they support Trump when a pollster calls, but in the privacy of the voting booth, they pull the lever for Trump. In the last month, here is how Trump has performed in primaries relative to the poll average just prior to the primary:

Code: Select all

State      RCPAvg  Actual  Disparity
Indiana      42.8   54.6   +11.8
Rhode Island 52.3   63.8   +11.5
Arizona      38.0   47.1   +9.1
Pennsylvania 48.3   56.8   +8.5
New York     53.1   60.4   +7.3
Maryland     47.7   54.4   +6.7
Delaware     55.0   60.8   +5.8
Connecticut  53.7   57.7   +4.0
Utah         11.0   14.0   +3.0
Illinois     36.0   38.8   +2.8
Wisconsin    34.5   35.1   +0.6


[dckingsfan]

Interesting framing of the issue. I think this is a rationalization of a demagogue. I do think this is the best way forward for Trump supporters though.

I do think if Democrats take Trump lightly they will be very surprised at the outcome.

Continuing to dismiss Trump as a "demagogue" or a "fascist" is exactly what I'm talking about. It's a dismissal of the fact that there are a huge number of Americans with legitimate grievances who are not being acknowledged by either party. We're talking 30-35% of Americans, and it'll be closer to 50% by the time Trump is done.

Nobody in the elite class is even willing to engage the intellectual merits of the nationalism stance. They just disregard, dismiss and belittle. You don't dismiss such a large segment of the population without repercussions.

Well, he is a demagogue: a political leader who seeks support by appealing to popular desires and prejudices rather than by using rational argument. For the most part he hasn't engaged in deep political arguments, IMO.

I am not saying that the stances don't have merit and I am not disagreeing that some of the issues that he has brought up have been dismissed out of hand. So, on the one hand you are right and on the other we have to agree to disagree - in my mind (like Sanders) he is a demagogue.

Take the comments about Mexican's being rapists. That is right in the bulls eye of demagogy. If he had just talked about those important drugs, etc. - then he would have had an argument. Instead, he just broad brushed all Hispanics.

From the WSJ:
"They might start by pointing out that numerous studies going back more than a century have shown that immigrants—regardless of nationality or legal status—are less likely than the native population to commit violent crimes or to be incarcerated. A new report from the Immigration Policy Center notes that while the illegal immigrant population in the U.S. more than tripled between 1990 and 2013 to more than 11.2 million, “FBI data indicate that the violent crime rate declined 48%—which included falling rates of aggravated assault, robbery, rape, and murder."

And that was how he started his campaign.

[TGW]

^^^On top of that, he retweeted made up statistics by a white nationalist group on black on black crime. The picture definition of demagoguery.

[cammac]

"Trump is going to be our next president."

Keep dreaming Nate. Trump's disapproval rating is teetering between 60-70%. You live in a fantasy world if you think Trump stands a chance in a general election.

Every single pundit said the same thing about Trump in the early stages of the GOP primary. Underestimate him at your own risk.

There is no doubt that Trump has high negatives. But he has time. The more people get to know Trump, the more they start liking him. He's funny, personable and authentic. The more people get to know Clinton, the more they dislike her. She's a phony and has an irritating voice and demeanor. The fact is, Trump isn't the racist everyone is making him out to be. He said bad things about "Mexicans", not "Latinos". He embraces Americans of Mexican heritage, just not actual Mexicans. Trump places America first. That's a more powerful message than you think it is. He will eventually make this a contest between Americans versus globalists, with Clinton on the side of the globalists.

My God Nate you are becoming more irrational as this Presidential Campaign goes on Nationalism is what keeps rotting nations together like Russia & China and allows terror to prosper. He is appealing to the most base level of society in America. He is trying to roll back the clock to the years Eisenhower years with "Operation WetBack". Your savior of the Middle Class doesn't support livable minimum wages or equal pay. Funny and authentic really? He is a thin skinned megalomaniac who acts like a school yard bully. His address on foreign policy is a farce and trying to be a isolationist in the 21st Century is akin to reverting to the horse and buggy.

[TGW]

Not only that, but this champion of nationalism has his clothing made in China and his properties built by hispanics. He is the epitome of a globalist.

[dckingsfan]

There is no doubt that Trump has high negatives. But he has time. The more people get to know Trump, the more they start liking him. He's funny, personable and authentic. The more people get to know Clinton, the more they dislike her. She's a phony and has an irritating voice and demeanor. The fact is, Trump isn't the racist everyone is making him out to be. He said bad things about "Mexicans", not "Latinos". He embraces Americans of Mexican heritage, just not actual Mexicans. Trump places America first. That's a more powerful message than you think it is. He will eventually make this a contest between Americans versus globalists, with Clinton on the side of the globalists.

I think that will be Trump's strategy. Try to move to the center and be less bombastic here on out. Try to backpedal on his previous comments as much as possible. He will try to frame Hillary as part of the problem.

I think Clinton's strategy will be more wonkish trying to expose Trump's lack of a plan and try to take the women, Black and Hispanic vote. And she will try to convince voters that having experience is worthwhile, not the other way around.

It is going to be interesting.

[nate33]

Take the comments about Mexican's being rapists. That is right in the bulls eye of demagogy. If he had just talked about those important drugs, etc. - then he would have had an argument. Instead, he just broad brushed all Hispanics.

He DIDN'T broad brush all Hispanics! That's an outright lie perpetuated by the media! Trump said that Mexico (meaning the government of Mexico) had a specific policy of dealing with their unwanted poor by sending them to America. He said that this policy was giving us the worst of the Mexicans, including the rapists. It was not aimed at all Hispanics. It was not aimed at all Mexicans. It was aimed specifically at the subset of Mexicans being incentivized to cross the border illegally.

From the WSJ:
"They might start by pointing out that numerous studies going back more than a century have shown that immigrants—regardless of nationality or legal status—are less likely than the native population to commit violent crimes or to be incarcerated. A new report from the Immigration Policy Center notes that while the illegal immigrant population in the U.S. more than tripled between 1990 and 2013 to more than 11.2 million, “FBI data indicate that the violent crime rate declined 48%—which included falling rates of aggravated assault, robbery, rape, and murder."

And that was how he started his campaign.

Those studies are bunk because they use incarceration rates which are crude measurements of crime, and they lump all immigrants together. Census data is better. Here's a Cato Institute analysis of these studies. The punch line is here:

Using panel data on U.S. counties, Spenkuch finds that a 10 percent increase in the share of immigrants increases the property crime rate by 1.2 percent. In other words, the average immigrant commits roughly 2.5 times as many property crimes as the average native but with no impact on violent crime rates. He finds that this effect on property crime rates is caused entirely by Mexican immigrants. Separating Mexicans from other immigrants, the former commit 3.5 to 5 times as many crimes as the average native. However, all other immigrants commit less than half as many crimes as natives. This is the most deleterious finding that I discovered.

We import a large number of low crime East Asians, Indians and Filipinos. That offsets the high crime of the Mexicans and Central Americans. So Trump was right. I'll also add that being roughly equal in violent crime rate to the U.S. average is still bad. The U.S. has a disproportionately high crime rate for a Western country because 13% of our population consists of insanely high crime prone blacks. I want immigrants with crime rates equal to the non-black population.

[nate33]

My God Nate you are becoming more irrational as this Presidential Campaign goes on Nationalism is what keeps rotting nations together like Russia & China and allows terror to prosper. He is appealing to the most base level of society in America. He is trying to roll back the clock to the years Eisenhower years with "Operation WetBack". Your savior of the Middle Class doesn't support livable minimum wages or equal pay. Funny and authentic really? He is a thin skinned megalomaniac who acts like a school yard bully. His address on foreign policy is a farce and trying to be a isolationist in the 21st Century is akin to reverting to the horse and buggy.

Operation Wetback makes perfect sense to me. They're here illegally. Remove them. This is what borders and laws are for. Trump does support livable wages, that's why he is promoting trade protectionism. But Trump realizes that mandating insanely high one-size-fits-all minimum wages nationwide is bad economics. The livable wage in Manhattan is different than in Wichita. Also, this notion that women don't get "equal pay" is another myth. And your notion that foreign interventionism is sound policy is belied by the failures of the Iraq War, Afghanistan, ISIS, Al Queda and Bosnia.

[nate33]

Not only that, but this champion of nationalism has his clothing made in China and his properties built by hispanics. He is the epitome of a globalist.

This argument is so silly. Of course Trump has been a globalist in business. It is impossible to compete with other globalists if you hamstring yourself and only use much higher cost labor. He would promptly go out of business on principle.

Wanting a change in the rules so that Trump Inc. as well as his competitors must ALL be forced to hire higher-cost Americans is not inconsistent at all.

[cammac]

My God Nate you are becoming more irrational as this Presidential Campaign goes on Nationalism is what keeps rotting nations together like Russia & China and allows terror to prosper. He is appealing to the most base level of society in America. He is trying to roll back the clock to the years Eisenhower years with "Operation WetBack". Your savior of the Middle Class doesn't support livable minimum wages or equal pay. Funny and authentic really? He is a thin skinned megalomaniac who acts like a school yard bully. His address on foreign policy is a farce and trying to be a isolationist in the 21st Century is akin to reverting to the horse and buggy.

Operation Wetback makes perfect sense to me. They're here illegally. Remove them. This is what borders and laws are for. Trump does support livable wages, that's why he is promoting trade protectionism. But Trump realizes that mandating insanely high one-size-fits-all minimum wages nationwide is bad economics. The livable wage in Manhattan is different than in Wichita. Also, this notion that women don't get "equal pay" is another myth. And your notion that foreign interventionism is sound policy is belied by the failures of the Iraq War, Afghanistan, ISIS, Al Queda and Bosnia.

Would Bosnia be a better place without foreign intervention I think not it would have been a Holocaust of epic proportions.

Iraq was a total disaster and disrupted a balance within the Middle East but was perpetrated by the Bush Administration. While Afghanistan was more justifiable it should have been more the destruction of Al Queda than regime change.

The destruction of ISIS seems to be a success in foreign policy at least to the extent in Iraq & Kurdish areas in Syria. ISIS will likely be pushed out of Iraq on Kurdish territories before the end of August. Much of Syria will remain a mess but more of a civil war than ISIS. Al Queda has been weaken into a marginal faction in the terrorist world.