thinker07 wrote:Having watched most of Portland's games this year, I think they are standing on the ledge peering into the abyss.
Collins is out at least 4 months, Nurkic is out maybe until after the allstar break, Whiteside and Hood both picked up frustration/shoving players technicals in their last game, their offense is almost non-existent other than a lot of Lillard and CJ dribble and jack plays, their options for a starting PF are Andrew Tolliver and Mario Hezonja or going small with Hood (none of whom are very good defensive players). Look who the PF's are in the Western Conference. Who on Portland is going to defend against them?
Brian Windhorst said today that Portland is going to have to make a significant trade and almost certainly well before the trade deadline because they risk falling too far behind thinking that they could try and wait to see when Nurkic returns. If you look at the contracts they have that they'd consider trading it pretty much comes down to Whiteside $27 m, Bazemore $19 m, and Collins $4.5 m. Then they have their draft picks and Nassir Little and Simons.
Windhorst said the deal that makes the most sense is Bazemore + something good (picks, Nassir Little etc) for Danilo Gallinari - $22 m. I'm sure Portland likes Little but he is a ways off from being able to see the court with Portland - probably a couple of years. Portland doesn't even have a GLeague team to develop him more consistently. I don't think Portland will be able to hold on to him if their season continues to collapse.
And the ownership of Portland isn't exactly stable. The team is actually owned by Paul Allen's charitable foundation and run by his sister who has no experience in sports. It's somewhat likely that the foundation owning the team violates irs charity regulations. The whole team structure REALLY needs to win this year. So Little, who might be good 2 or 3 years from now is expendable. So are their picks, so is Collins. Is Sam Presti going to be anxious to help out their division mates? Or will he try to gouge them like he tries with every trade? I doubt that he gives Portland Gallinari in return for a 2nd round pick. And not that many teams are ready to trade players this early into the season?
So if Portland is forced to make a trade soon, it seems not out of the question to go back to Nate's original idea of doing something along the lines of Whiteside + Little and/or picks for some combination of Mahinmi, Bertans, CJ Miles. They could also do something around Collins + in return for Bertans. It's a lot to pay for a rental, but Portland might have to choke it down.
As a Portland fan I have to say that you are completely overthinking this.
Collins is off the market for anything other than a star. Simons is the same. There's no trade to be made revolving around Bertans that nets you anything more than a lottery protected first. Jody Allen is now the teams owner. And all signs point to her enjoying the ownership.
I understand this is a Wizards board, so I won't get into some long drawn out fight, but all these trades where Bertans is going out and returning high upside players and first round picks are ludicrous. He's an expiring contract who's a bench player on a good team. The Blazers aren't depleting their assets for a guy like that.
Blazers and Wizards are just bad trading partners. Portland doesn't have contracts to match Bertans, so you're left poaching Portland rotation players in an effort to make salaries match which negates the point of adding a player like Bertans.
Let me dissect your offer and tell you why it's completely horrendous from a Blazer point of view:
- Bertans fills an immediate need for the Blazers. He can log a solid amount of minutes at the 4, and is a really good shooter. That's the positive. Despite that Bertans is till just a bench player on a contending team. We can all agree I'd think.
- Mahinmi is out for an extended period of time, and has isn't very good even when he's healthy. Hassan Whiteside has his issues bu he's a SIGNIFICANTLY better player than Mahinmi at this point. The Blazers may have gotten a 4 who can contribute in Bertans but they've lost their rim protector and gotten significantly worse at the 5 to accomplish it. This trade is already looking like a bust for the Blazers.
Now let's add insult to injury:
- In order to shift the hole in the roster from the 4 to the 5 you have Portland also: Giving up Nassir Little who is a high upside player drafted in the 1st round, and/or draft picks. Taking on CJ Miles salary which cuts into Portland's cap space next year, or at a minimum their financial flexibility.
I just can't see any reason whatsover for Portland to make that trade. They give up assets, and it's arguable that they get worse in the short term as well. Due to Bertans salary, I can't come up with a single trade that works out well for both Portland and Washington.
