Corey Kispert, Wizards Sniper.

[dobrojim]

High praise for Tyus in the video. I wonder if he'll be back.

[nate33]

Corey is a good stable horse, but I'm ready to ride a new one that can clear a higher bar.

Keeping Kispert doesn't mean we can't add other good players.

[nate33]

Read on Twitter

This should pretty much establish the market for Kispert.

Kispert is a more dynamic offensive player than Hauser, but Hauser is a better defender. In terms of playing a specific role for a playoff team, Hauser is arguably the more useful player.

Hopefully, we can lock Kispert up to a $12M per year deal that declines. So it would be: $13.7M/$12.6M/$11.4M/$10.3M

[closg00]

Read on Twitter

This should pretty much establish the market for Kispert.

Kispert is a more dynamic offensive player than Hauser, but Hauser is a better defender. In terms of playing a specific role for a playoff team, Hauser is arguably the more useful player.

Hopefully, we can lock Kispert up to a $12M per year deal that declines. So it would be: $13.6M/$12.5M/$11.4M/$10.3M

Hauser shot 42.4% from 3, Corey %38, Corey should be paid accordingly, I would rather give his spot to Bernard and open the Two-way up.

[nate33]

Read on Twitter

This should pretty much establish the market for Kispert.

Kispert is a more dynamic offensive player than Hauser, but Hauser is a better defender. In terms of playing a specific role for a playoff team, Hauser is arguably the more useful player.

Hopefully, we can lock Kispert up to a $12M per year deal that declines. So it would be: $13.6M/$12.5M/$11.4M/$10.3M

Hauser shot 42.4% from 3, Corey %38, Corey should be paid accordingly, I would rather give his spot to Bernard and open the Two-way up.

So the only stat that matters is 3P%?

It doesn't matter that Kispert maintains a usage of 19.6% relative to Hauser's 15%. It doesn't matter that Kispert scores 26% more points per minute than Hauser at the same efficiency? It doesn't matter that Kispert can attack a closeout and finish at the rim (64% 2P% on 5.5 2PA's per 36) while Hauser can't (56% 2P% on 1.9 2PA's per 36)? It doesn't matter that Kispert is 2 years younger and may not have peaked?

[Dark Faze]

Corey's archetype isn't very valuable to anyone but contending teams, and only then the market value GM's would prefer is around MLE . I think the Cavs probably feel they overpaid slightly on Strus. These guys tend to hit their overall numbers in terms of percentages but them having a hot streak in November and a cold streak in the playoffs isn't uncommon.

The challenge is trying to differentiate which guys are just shooters and which have the ability to elevate their game a bit like Devin Booker, Tyler Herro, and presumably Reed Sheppard. I think for the most part we knew what kind of player we were getting with Corey.

[nate33]

Corey's archetype isn't very valuable to anyone but contending teams, and only then the market value GM's would prefer is around MLE . I think the Cavs probably feel they overpaid slightly on Strus. These guys tend to hit their overall numbers in terms of percentages but them having a hot streak in November and a cold streak in the playoffs isn't uncommon.

The challenge is trying to differentiate which guys are just shooters and which have the ability to elevate their game a bit like Devin Booker, Tyler Herro, and presumably Reed Sheppard. I think for the most part we knew what kind of player we were getting with Corey.

Yeah, I get the logic of trading him.

I was upset as hell about trading Deni because I saw him as a core piece that could fit in as a starter 3 years from now and possibly still improve. I agree that Kispert is merely a role player that a good team would value as extra depth. I'm open-minded to a trade. But I'm also open minded to a team friendly contract extension which might improve his trade value. I think he is worth roughly what Hauser was worth.

[payitforward]

...I agree that Kispert is merely a role player that a good team would value as extra depth. I'm open-minded to a trade. But I'm also open minded to a team friendly contract extension which might improve his trade value. I think he is worth roughly what Hauser was worth.

As shooters, sure, they are quite similar. But Hauser is significantly better at pretty much everything else other than assists.

OTOH, if Hauser's pedigree was as a R1 pick, I think he'd have gotten a bigger second contract. So, I expect you are correct that Kispert will likely command a similar 2d contract.

[Dat2U]

Corey's archetype isn't very valuable to anyone but contending teams, and only then the market value GM's would prefer is around MLE . I think the Cavs probably feel they overpaid slightly on Strus. These guys tend to hit their overall numbers in terms of percentages but them having a hot streak in November and a cold streak in the playoffs isn't uncommon.

The challenge is trying to differentiate which guys are just shooters and which have the ability to elevate their game a bit like Devin Booker, Tyler Herro, and presumably Reed Sheppard. I think for the most part we knew what kind of player we were getting with Corey.

Corey's biggest issue (since he increased his usage last year) is defense. The archetype that would make him valuable begins and ends with him playing respectable defense on the wing. That's his way to being a 4th or 5th starter as opposed to an off the bench shooter. While he'll never be an iso stopper but he can certainly improve his focus off the ball and at least be in the right place at the right time more often than not and not be a blow by either when he is in the right spot.

The shooting and secondary shot creation will always have value in the league so that alone gets him a decent contract which is why this is even a discussion now. I agree with Nate that a descending contract for Kispert makes alot of sense ... and if makes a Deni-like jump, maybe they can get a handful of draft picks for him.

[nate33]

...I agree that Kispert is merely a role player that a good team would value as extra depth. I'm open-minded to a trade. But I'm also open minded to a team friendly contract extension which might improve his trade value. I think he is worth roughly what Hauser was worth.

As shooters, sure, they are quite similar. But Hauser is significantly better at pretty much everything else other than assists.

OTOH, if Hauser's pedigree was as a R1 pick, I think he'd have gotten a bigger second contract. So, I expect you are correct that Kispert will likely command a similar 2d contract.

I wouldn't say Hauser is "significantly better at pretty much everything else". Kispert is clearly a superior shot creator and finisher around the rim. But your point stands that Hauser probably has slightly more value than Kispert overall since being a better 3&D specialist has more value to a winning team that already has all of their primary players in place.

I'm guessing Hauser took a slight discount to play on a title contender, and, as you pointed out, Kispert has the first-round-pick pedigree. With those two factors in mind, I think it is likely that Kispert will command a salary roughly equivalent to Hauser, and maybe slightly more. There's also the possibility that Kispert hasn't quite peaked whereas Hauser almost surely has.

[payitforward]

Agree on all fronts.

Hand it to Hauser for creating a very solid NBA career after going undrafted. Guys like that are few & far between.

[Dark Faze]

I think we all anticipated that this would be the outcome with Corey. Like, maybe some 5% chance of him pulling a Devin Booker, but this was the player we thought he'd be for the most part.

The question from a drafting perspective is if it's better to completely swing and miss on a prospect with a higher ceiling or to land on a good player that ultimately doesn't return many (if any) assets in a trade down the road. Like, if we only get a second rounder for him in a trade, was a second worth the 1/10 chance (possibly worse, idk) that a project player selected instead might have hit?

[nate33]

I think we all anticipated that this would be the outcome with Corey. Like, maybe some 5% chance of him pulling a Devin Booker, but this was the player we thought he'd be for the most part.

The question from a drafting perspective is if it's better to completely swing and miss on a prospect with a higher ceiling or to land on a good player that ultimately doesn't return many (if any) assets in a trade down the road. Like, if we only get a second rounder for him in a trade, was a second worth the 1/10 chance (possibly worse, idk) that a project player selected instead might have hit?

At the time when Kispert was drafted, we had Beal, Kuzma, KCP, Gafford and Harrell on the roster and were still (foolishly) in a win-now stance. Drafting a guy like Kispert made perfect sense in that scenario because he was NBA-ready on Day 1. Even if he never became a quality starter worth significant assets going forward, he was still solid depth for four seasons at a very cheap cost. It's the same logic as drafting a guy like Matisse Thybulle, Brandon Clarke or Grayson Allen (all older players drafted in the middle of the first round).

As it turned out, the Wizards abandoned their win-now stance two years after drafting Kispert, significantly undermining the utility of the Kispert selection. It would certainly make much less sense drafting a guy like him in our current rebuilding stage.

[payitforward]

As well, I recall that Tommy was quoted to the effect that Kispert was "the best shooter in the draft." Which may have (probably?) meant "when we picked." In any case, it indicated that he was looking for a particular skill.

"Best shooter" is not the same as "best player," obviously. OTOH, Kispert is by no means a bust.

Who knows? But, if I had to guess, I'd say he's likely to be traded at the deadline.

[badinage]

I’m having a hard time understanding why he’s still on the team. And that’s true, for me, for a number of players. Like, why are they still here, after the Avdija trade?

They held on to Jones too long, and got nothing. That may be happening, as well, with Kuzma — who reportedly had to be packaged with the #26 to fetch #13.

Why not just cut bait with these guys now? What’s the goal? To showcase — what? That someone is worth two unprotected seconds as opposed to one? If Kispert steps up, does he fetch a no. 1 at the trade deadline? Maybe in the NBA seven years ago, but not now. The GMs are a lot smarter (but ha, STILL make stupid decisions, and STILL lose a ton, most of them).

The goal next year is to win, like, 5 games, but to play hard and be competitive, and for Bilal and Bub and Vuk and Sarr to show that they’re pieces … and to set a culture of hard work and play the game the right way blah blah as they prime the deck for Flagg or Bailey.

They can do that without Kispert, who I like and appreciate, and who has grown from the player he began as. But he has more value to a real team, and we ought to do right by these guys and not dick around with their lives and futures.

[nate33]

I’m having a hard time understanding why he’s still on the team. And that’s true, for me, for a number of players. Like, why are they still here, after the Avdija trade?

They held on to Jones too long, and got nothing. That may be happening, as well, with Kuzma — who reportedly had to be packaged with the #26 to fetch #13.

Why not just cut bait with these guys now? What’s the goal? To showcase — what? That someone is worth two unprotected seconds as opposed to one? If Kispert steps up, does he fetch a no. 1 at the trade deadline? Maybe in the NBA seven years ago, but not now. The GMs are a lot smarter (but ha, STILL make stupid decisions, and STILL lose a ton, most of them).

The goal next year is to win, like, 5 games, but to play hard and be competitive, and for Bilal and Bub and Vuk and Sarr to show that they’re pieces … and to set a culture of hard work and play the game the right way blah blah as they prime the deck for Flagg or Bailey.

They can do that without Kispert, who I like and appreciate, and who has grown from the player he began as. But he has more value to a real team, and we ought to do right by these guys and not dick around with their lives and futures.

I'm still okay with a resigned Kispert at roughly $12M a year - particularly if it's declining. That will be about 70% of MLE money 3 years from now when we will presumably have a competitive team. I'm perfectly fine with a guy like Kispert as our 6th/7th man at 70% of the MLE. We can keep him on the roster at that price, or if an opportunistic trade comes along, we can move him if the return improves our roster.

Keep in mind that there is virtually no chance that we will be paying anybody on this team a max salary any time in the next 4 years. With that the case, we can afford luxury depth at 7th and 8th man at low 8-figure salaries. It's not like we are in a situation like Milwaukee or Phoenix where we are paying two supermax guys and can only afford vet minimum guys at 7th and 8th man.

Also, we are in a weird time right now when all the teams in need of veteran depth have no picks to trade, and all the teams with picks available are rebuilding and aren't interested in 25-year-old rotation players. (This is the same issue we have with trading Kuzma.) At other times, a guy like Kispert would probably be worth a late FRP, but right now, I doubt it. So we may as well keep him and hope that that the market demand is different 2 years from now.

[payitforward]

I’m having a hard time understanding why he’s still on the team

And that’s true, for me, for a number of players. Like, why are they still here, after the Avdija trade? ...

I'm sure they'd like to trade Kuz (& will), but I don't see a question about why Kispert is here -- he or anyone -- that's created or intensified because we traded Deni.

Whether Kispert or any other NBA player, can be valuable to a team resolves to a cost-benefit analysis. &, I guess, a projection of opportunity. Kispert had a pretty good rookie year (for a rookie, that is) & a better year in '22-23.

He didn't take a 3d year jump, but I'd say he has established himself as a useful player in the NBA. It would of th be no surprise if he were traded at the deadline this year, but I suppose the question of what kind of 2d contract he'll require is relevant as well.

What I don't see is the relevance of the Deni trade to Kispert.

They held on to Jones too long, and got nothing. That may be happening, as well, with Kuzma — who reportedly had to be packaged with the #26 to fetch #13....

Kyle Kuzma is not a good NBA player. I've never understood why anyone would think he'd bring 2 FRPs or, for that matter, 1 lottery pick.

As for Jones, for I guess the 10th time, he was an expiring FA. Yes, we seem to have turned down a single R2 pick who knows how many years from now. Which you criticize -- & then go on to write...

...two unprotected seconds as opposed to one?...

...indicating quite a low estimation of the value of a R2 pick!

I don't want to argue with you; you know that -- but it does seem that all the energy of your critique comes from the "crime" of trading Deni!

If Kispert steps up, does he fetch a no. 1 at the trade deadline? Maybe in the NBA seven years ago, but not now. The GMs are a lot smarter (but ha, STILL make stupid decisions, and STILL lose a ton, most of them)...

What in the world would make you think that NBA GMs are smarter now than they were 7 years ago?

OTOH, it's teams that lose not GMs, & overall they lose exactly the same number of games every single season as they ever have since the league went to 82 games!

...we ought to do right by these guys and not dick around with their lives and futures.

Oh what pity I feel for these multi-millionaires!

[badinage]

The ‘energy’ behind my critique has little to do with the Avdija trade in the way you think. Yes, it was dumb. Yes, it was rash. Yes, it continues a long line of chucking young players before they hit their prime. All that. And more. BUT, my ‘energy,’ here, is that with the Avdija trade, there’s no player on the team (apart from Dawkins’s picks) who shouldn’t be sold off now. There’s not one guy on the team, who was not selected this year or last, that they’re invested in — beyond trying, lamely, to build up his appeal. It’s got to be obvious to every GM in the league. And value is being driven down. This notion of having vets around to mentor is cliche and also, I think, unfounded in this case. It’s not a team yet. It’s a bunch of players. In a year or two it might be a team. And then, sure, bring in some washed guys for that “veteran presence.”

[DCZards]

Badinage, I think you underestimate the value of having vet mentors for 19-20 yr old players like Bilal, Sarr and Bub. I believe the presence and leadership of vets like Brogdon, JV, and yes, even Kuz, helps with the development of our youngins.

I'm not saying don't trade these vets if the opportunity arises, but let's at least recognize that they do bring value as mentors.

[doclinkin]

It’s not a team yet. It’s a bunch of players. In a year or two it might be a team.

I think this is the entire point. I really don't think we have a team or players to build around right now. Not now, not even in a year or two. Unless we get an immediate winner at the top of a draft. Til then we are in the 'throw everything against the wall and see what sticks' phase. And will be for a while. Hell, even the last couple years' top draft picks could be busts. Bilal, Sarr, Vukcevic. I'm highest on Bub, the pick we landed by trading away the only guy who was developing for us. But even best case scenario version of Bub is not carrying the team by himself. At best he eventually replaces the production we had from Deni, on higher usage maybe. But I don't hate that we made the move. Traded 4-for-1. Because we really have no other way to reach a championship except by building from the rubble up.

Nobody wants the assets of a 15 win team. Deni was the only guy anyone was willing to pay a nice price for. I agree that Kispert may find takers. But it's not like we were going to build a winning core around those two. I expect we will continue to re-set the clock with trades for picks until we hit the one that moves the win/loss needle. Until then we will swap out whomever we can. I think the hold up for Kuz is that he has a 15% trade kicker, that he is willing to waive if we find the right team, but if not, he won't. And until then we will keep pretending his value is worth top dollar, in order to pump up his price. If he has a string of good games then we might pull some interest for his contract.

I expect the team wants a few short term wins, with guys like Kuzma and Brogdon playing well so we can field offers for their services. (Or if we can dream: Poole). Those 3 players represent 53% of the cap. Fortunately Brogdon expires this year, so that outgoing $22m could burn a huge chunk off the tax hit for a 2nd apron team. If Brogdon plays well, that's even better for the win-now teams who want to make a big push this year then re-set the clock next year. Those types of teams often are free-spending with their draft picks.

We have a mess of players who are expiring or non-guaranteed going forward:

Brogdon 22.5m ufa
Bagley 12.5m ufa
Richaun 12.6m only 250k gtd. after this year
Bilal 6.9 team option
Kispert 5.7 rfa
Johnny 5.3 team option
PBJr 2.4 team option
Butler 2.1m non guaranteed this year
Omoruyi 2.1m non gtd. this year
Gill 2m non gtd after this year

Brogdon Bagley and Holmes are our best trade assets. Unless I read it wrong and am missing something, right now it looks to me like we are capped out ourselves, so we can only trade 1-for-1 or 1-for-2. That means the bigger contracts are more movable. At least until we trade Brogdon, then all is freed up. Then we can either package a few players or do the same deal again: trade for a big contract short term veteran, plus picks. The Brogdon trade was a gamble in a few different ways. He locks us up a bit if we can't move him. But could net us real assets too off a team that is more desperate.

This is the sort of asset that we are stockpiling right now. We will swap any of these players for guys with big contracts but only a couple years left on their deals, so that we can also land every draft pick possible for the next 5-10 years. The idea is to constantly re-new your stable of young players until you land the franchise changer. Or your youth matures to desirable assets and you can make the big trade for that guy. And still get new players in the draft as you grow.

So the plan is: play well enough to raise the value of our assets. Ink free agents to team friendly deals (options, non guaranteed, bigger money up front, etc). Listen to offers and sell before the deadline. Trade expirings and productive players for picks, even eating a short term big contract or two to do so. Then draft smart, draft young, draft for upside, hope you get lucky.

I don't doubt they could extend Kispert on a deal that makes sense. He fits with anyone and is a young veteran who will help rookies find their roles. I could see him as a team captain, coaches ally type. All of that helps raise his value both here and league wide. But still don't see him as ever being too valuable to trade.