Bradley Beal - Part IV

[gambitx777]

When you think about his contract as a % of the cap it is way easier to swallow.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

[80sballboy]

Not a surprise though Woj is not batting a thousand after missing out on Banchero going 1st until the last second.

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[payitforward]

When you think about his contract as a % of the cap it is way easier to swallow. ...

If that's true I'll eat my hat!

[payitforward]

Not a surprise though Woj is not batting a thousand after missing out on Banchero going 1st until the last second.

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Does "max" mean "supermax" in this case?

Even if Brad had not declined last season, I wouldn't give him 5 years. The fact that he did -- & that his 3 point shot has declined over several consecutive seasons -- would put it out of the question.

I'm not negative on Brad. Just real. I would give him a 1 year deal with a team option for the 2d year. If you feel like we must somehow "honor" his long term as a Wizard, then set that contract at a high number.

If he kills it, I'm going to be strongly motivated to negotiate for longer at more $$ instead of picking up the option.

If he shows some bounce-back but not near all the way, maybe I pick up the option or maybe we negotiate for more years.

If neither of those options seems worth it, I may still want that 2d year. Or not.

IMO, the stronger his belief in himself the better that kind of a deal looks.

[Kanyewest]

I posted this in the trade thread but it probably belongs here. I'd like to be able to reference it in the future:



Going by VORP, Bradley Beal was the 123rd best player in the NBA last year. Perhaps that's unfair because of the injury, but going by BPM, which is basically per-minute VORP, Beal was the 72nd best player in the NBA last year (among guys playing 1500+ minutes).

Going by Wins Above Replacement, Beal was the 117th best player in the NBA last year. Again, that's unfair because of his injury; but going by RAPTOR, which is basically per-minute WAR, Beal was the 80th best player in the NBA.

So by objective measures, using two well-respected measurements that factor his statistical production and on/off impact, and ignoring that he missed games due to injury, Beal was maybe the 75th best player in the league last year, give or take. The 75th highest paid player in the league last year was Clint Capela, who made $17.1M. He is owed $18.2M this year. That should be a starting point in the salary negotiation.

But let's give Beal the benefit of the doubt. Let's assume last year was a total aberration and that he deserves to be assessed based on his play the previous year when he was an All-NBA player.

In 2020-21, Beal ranked 24th by VORP, partially due to the minutes load he carried. BPM was a little less kind, ranking him 30th. In 2020-21, WAR ranked him 25th and RAPTOR ranked him 29th. So by objective measures, he was roughly the 30th best player in the league on a per-minute basis, but because of his durability, he was closer to 25th. The 25th highest paid player last year was Andrew Wiggins at $31M. He is owed $33M this year. That should be the upper end of his salary in an objective salary negotiation. And honestly, it's pretty risky to assume Beal can get back to his 2020-21 production because the rule changes appeared to affect his style of play more than most.

If I was Sheppard, I'd generously offer Beal a 5-year contract starting at his player option price of $36M, but it would not have raises. Indeed, I'd have it decline in the later years in anticipation of Beal's decline with age. I'd structure it something like this:

Year 1 - $36M
Year 2 - $36M
Year 3 - $33M
Year 4 - $30M
Year 5 - $27M (team option)

This is objectively more generous than he deserves. Call it gratitude for his long service. And to be fair, Beal also deserves a little consideration for the fact that he is a pro's pro who will work hard every offseason to maintain his skills and conditioning. There's less risk on that issue than for an average player. The only real negotiation I'd make would be that last year. I might be talked into making it non-guaranteed with a player option (basically, either side could void it). Or maybe I'd be nice and just make it a straight up player option.

If Beal refused to agree to these terms, I'd call his bluff and let him go negotiate a deal with Detroit. I honestly think letting him walk would be better for the franchise than signing him to a deal significantly higher than what I propose here.

If Beal does sign the contract, it would be one with a small enough cap hit that we could continue to build around him - maybe even adding a max free agent in 2024 when Porzingis comes off the books. But more importantly, it would be a very tradeable contract if we continue to flounder as a 10th seed.

Although Zach Lavine is 103 on the WAR list (more often than not) and he is going to sign a $203 million 5 year deal.

Also would factor in that Wiggins 31 million a season was at the higher threshold of what he could get paid. Steph Curry and LeBron James were making $33 to 34 million in the 2017 to 2018. Plus Wiggins was coming off his contract.

That being said, can understand the reluctance to offer Beal what he wants.

[80sballboy]

I don't think one person on this board wants us to re-sign Brad for the supermax. It's nothing personal, but if you notice certain words thrown around by Tommy like "character". Like that more important than "winner". I agree that it would be nice to have 15 saints that can really hoop, but that's not just a basketball thing. It's a sport thing. Not everyone loves each other and not everybody is Brad off the court.

So we'll have 4-5 years of a solid dude, who will do good things for the community and average around 25ppg. What will that mean for the product on the floor? It means we'll probably make the playoffs every now and then with good (health) fortune. We have a GM that is willing to make trades and take chances save for during the draft. He has not come close to hitting a HR yet. Hopefully JD is close, but who knows? He will have to play the 3 or the 1 if he's going to get a lot of playing time. Or Brad will be stuck at the point. He won't love it, but what does he care? He'll have a guaranteed 250+M.

Most of us would like to blow it up. So we get Tyus Jones or at worse Monte Morris? We'll still be 7th or 8th in the East -maybe. BFD.

[Frichuela]

I posted this in the trade thread but it probably belongs here. I'd like to be able to reference it in the future:



Going by VORP, Bradley Beal was the 123rd best player in the NBA last year. Perhaps that's unfair because of the injury, but going by BPM, which is basically per-minute VORP, Beal was the 72nd best player in the NBA last year (among guys playing 1500+ minutes).

Going by Wins Above Replacement, Beal was the 117th best player in the NBA last year. Again, that's unfair because of his injury; but going by RAPTOR, which is basically per-minute WAR, Beal was the 80th best player in the NBA.

So by objective measures, using two well-respected measurements that factor his statistical production and on/off impact, and ignoring that he missed games due to injury, Beal was maybe the 75th best player in the league last year, give or take. The 75th highest paid player in the league last year was Clint Capela, who made $17.1M. He is owed $18.2M this year. That should be a starting point in the salary negotiation.

But let's give Beal the benefit of the doubt. Let's assume last year was a total aberration and that he deserves to be assessed based on his play the previous year when he was an All-NBA player.

In 2020-21, Beal ranked 24th by VORP, partially due to the minutes load he carried. BPM was a little less kind, ranking him 30th. In 2020-21, WAR ranked him 25th and RAPTOR ranked him 29th. So by objective measures, he was roughly the 30th best player in the league on a per-minute basis, but because of his durability, he was closer to 25th. The 25th highest paid player last year was Andrew Wiggins at $31M. He is owed $33M this year. That should be the upper end of his salary in an objective salary negotiation. And honestly, it's pretty risky to assume Beal can get back to his 2020-21 production because the rule changes appeared to affect his style of play more than most.

If I was Sheppard, I'd generously offer Beal a 5-year contract starting at his player option price of $36M, but it would not have raises. Indeed, I'd have it decline in the later years in anticipation of Beal's decline with age. I'd structure it something like this:

Year 1 - $36M
Year 2 - $36M
Year 3 - $33M
Year 4 - $30M
Year 5 - $27M (team option)

This is objectively more generous than he deserves. Call it gratitude for his long service. And to be fair, Beal also deserves a little consideration for the fact that he is a pro's pro who will work hard every offseason to maintain his skills and conditioning. There's less risk on that issue than for an average player. The only real negotiation I'd make would be that last year. I might be talked into making it non-guaranteed with a player option (basically, either side could void it). Or maybe I'd be nice and just make it a straight up player option.

If Beal refused to agree to these terms, I'd call his bluff and let him go negotiate a deal with Detroit. I honestly think letting him walk would be better for the franchise than signing him to a deal significantly higher than what I propose here.

If Beal does sign the contract, it would be one with a small enough cap hit that we could continue to build around him - maybe even adding a max free agent in 2024 when Porzingis comes off the books. But more importantly, it would be a very tradeable contract if we continue to flounder as a 10th seed.

Although Zach Lavine is 103 on the WAR list (more often than not) and he is going to sign a $203 million 5 year deal.

Also would factor in that Wiggins 31 million a season was at the higher threshold of what he could get paid. Steph Curry and LeBron James were making $33 to 34 million in the 2017 to 2018. Plus Wiggins was coming off his contract.

That being said, can understand the reluctance to offer Beal what he wants.

As many have pointed out, there are very few teams that have the cap space to pay Beal a good deal in FA. In fact, if we look at what would be his preferred destinations, all would require to work a sign and trade with the Wiz. This means that Tommy & co have all the leverage with Beal, and it would be idiotic not to exercise it. Let’s not sugar coat it: paying Brad the super max is GM malpractice. But, ya know, Terd likes to bid against himself, doesn’t he?

[nate33]

I posted this in the trade thread but it probably belongs here. I'd like to be able to reference it in the future:



Going by VORP, Bradley Beal was the 123rd best player in the NBA last year. Perhaps that's unfair because of the injury, but going by BPM, which is basically per-minute VORP, Beal was the 72nd best player in the NBA last year (among guys playing 1500+ minutes).

Going by Wins Above Replacement, Beal was the 117th best player in the NBA last year. Again, that's unfair because of his injury; but going by RAPTOR, which is basically per-minute WAR, Beal was the 80th best player in the NBA.

So by objective measures, using two well-respected measurements that factor his statistical production and on/off impact, and ignoring that he missed games due to injury, Beal was maybe the 75th best player in the league last year, give or take. The 75th highest paid player in the league last year was Clint Capela, who made $17.1M. He is owed $18.2M this year. That should be a starting point in the salary negotiation.

But let's give Beal the benefit of the doubt. Let's assume last year was a total aberration and that he deserves to be assessed based on his play the previous year when he was an All-NBA player.

In 2020-21, Beal ranked 24th by VORP, partially due to the minutes load he carried. BPM was a little less kind, ranking him 30th. In 2020-21, WAR ranked him 25th and RAPTOR ranked him 29th. So by objective measures, he was roughly the 30th best player in the league on a per-minute basis, but because of his durability, he was closer to 25th. The 25th highest paid player last year was Andrew Wiggins at $31M. He is owed $33M this year. That should be the upper end of his salary in an objective salary negotiation. And honestly, it's pretty risky to assume Beal can get back to his 2020-21 production because the rule changes appeared to affect his style of play more than most.

If I was Sheppard, I'd generously offer Beal a 5-year contract starting at his player option price of $36M, but it would not have raises. Indeed, I'd have it decline in the later years in anticipation of Beal's decline with age. I'd structure it something like this:

Year 1 - $36M
Year 2 - $36M
Year 3 - $33M
Year 4 - $30M
Year 5 - $27M (team option)

This is objectively more generous than he deserves. Call it gratitude for his long service. And to be fair, Beal also deserves a little consideration for the fact that he is a pro's pro who will work hard every offseason to maintain his skills and conditioning. There's less risk on that issue than for an average player. The only real negotiation I'd make would be that last year. I might be talked into making it non-guaranteed with a player option (basically, either side could void it). Or maybe I'd be nice and just make it a straight up player option.

If Beal refused to agree to these terms, I'd call his bluff and let him go negotiate a deal with Detroit. I honestly think letting him walk would be better for the franchise than signing him to a deal significantly higher than what I propose here.

If Beal does sign the contract, it would be one with a small enough cap hit that we could continue to build around him - maybe even adding a max free agent in 2024 when Porzingis comes off the books. But more importantly, it would be a very tradeable contract if we continue to flounder as a 10th seed.

Although Zach Lavine is 103 on the WAR list (more often than not) and he is going to sign a $203 million 5 year deal.

Also would factor in that Wiggins 31 million a season was at the higher threshold of what he could get paid. Steph Curry and LeBron James were making $33 to 34 million in the 2017 to 2018. Plus Wiggins was coming off his contract.

That being said, can understand the reluctance to offer Beal what he wants.

Lavine is 36th on VORP and 38th by BPM. Last year he ranked 22nd and 21st in VORP and BPM respectively. He was 54th by EPM this year.

It looks like RAPTOR/WAR is a bit of an outlier for Lavine this year.

[Kanyewest]

I posted this in the trade thread but it probably belongs here. I'd like to be able to reference it in the future:



Going by VORP, Bradley Beal was the 123rd best player in the NBA last year. Perhaps that's unfair because of the injury, but going by BPM, which is basically per-minute VORP, Beal was the 72nd best player in the NBA last year (among guys playing 1500+ minutes).

Going by Wins Above Replacement, Beal was the 117th best player in the NBA last year. Again, that's unfair because of his injury; but going by RAPTOR, which is basically per-minute WAR, Beal was the 80th best player in the NBA.

So by objective measures, using two well-respected measurements that factor his statistical production and on/off impact, and ignoring that he missed games due to injury, Beal was maybe the 75th best player in the league last year, give or take. The 75th highest paid player in the league last year was Clint Capela, who made $17.1M. He is owed $18.2M this year. That should be a starting point in the salary negotiation.

But let's give Beal the benefit of the doubt. Let's assume last year was a total aberration and that he deserves to be assessed based on his play the previous year when he was an All-NBA player.

In 2020-21, Beal ranked 24th by VORP, partially due to the minutes load he carried. BPM was a little less kind, ranking him 30th. In 2020-21, WAR ranked him 25th and RAPTOR ranked him 29th. So by objective measures, he was roughly the 30th best player in the league on a per-minute basis, but because of his durability, he was closer to 25th. The 25th highest paid player last year was Andrew Wiggins at $31M. He is owed $33M this year. That should be the upper end of his salary in an objective salary negotiation. And honestly, it's pretty risky to assume Beal can get back to his 2020-21 production because the rule changes appeared to affect his style of play more than most.

If I was Sheppard, I'd generously offer Beal a 5-year contract starting at his player option price of $36M, but it would not have raises. Indeed, I'd have it decline in the later years in anticipation of Beal's decline with age. I'd structure it something like this:

Year 1 - $36M
Year 2 - $36M
Year 3 - $33M
Year 4 - $30M
Year 5 - $27M (team option)

This is objectively more generous than he deserves. Call it gratitude for his long service. And to be fair, Beal also deserves a little consideration for the fact that he is a pro's pro who will work hard every offseason to maintain his skills and conditioning. There's less risk on that issue than for an average player. The only real negotiation I'd make would be that last year. I might be talked into making it non-guaranteed with a player option (basically, either side could void it). Or maybe I'd be nice and just make it a straight up player option.

If Beal refused to agree to these terms, I'd call his bluff and let him go negotiate a deal with Detroit. I honestly think letting him walk would be better for the franchise than signing him to a deal significantly higher than what I propose here.

If Beal does sign the contract, it would be one with a small enough cap hit that we could continue to build around him - maybe even adding a max free agent in 2024 when Porzingis comes off the books. But more importantly, it would be a very tradeable contract if we continue to flounder as a 10th seed.

Although Zach Lavine is 103 on the WAR list (more often than not) and he is going to sign a $203 million 5 year deal.

Also would factor in that Wiggins 31 million a season was at the higher threshold of what he could get paid. Steph Curry and LeBron James were making $33 to 34 million in the 2017 to 2018. Plus Wiggins was coming off his contract.

That being said, can understand the reluctance to offer Beal what he wants.

Lavine is 36th on VORP and 38th by BPM. Last year he ranked 22nd and 21st in VORP and BPM respectively. He was 54th by EPM this year.

It looks like RAPTOR/WAR is a bit of an outlier for Lavine this year.

Raptor for Lavine last 4 seasons- (103, 50, 108, 151) - Beal in comparison (117, 24, 55, 23)

It looks like Beal's VORP is higher than Lavine's over the last 4 season but Lavine's average/total is better over the last 2 seasons. Although there isn't enough of a difference to say that Lavine was demonstrably better (and vice versa) in the last 3 seasons.

It looks like Lavine is simply only going to earn less as a product of the CBA given that Beal is a 10 year veteran. And maybe one can argue the Bulls could offer a less to Lavine

BTW, Wiggins VORP in 2016-17 was 252 in VORP shortly before his extension. Looks like the Timberwolves didn't value that stat at the time.

Maybe though, last season isn't an aberration which does have me concerned about his contract.

[closg00]

Why do they have to pay Beal the SuperMax? Couldn’t they shave off 20-30 million off the deal?
~ Bill Simmons~

THIS^ all day, what Ted?Tommy are about to do is INSANE

[Jay81]

If Tommy and Ted give beal the supermax...it will be worse than anything Ernie has ever done. Give him 5 years-150 million and then try to trade him when you are able.

[Frichuela]

Why do they have to pay Beal the SuperMax? Couldn’t they shave off 20-30 million off the deal?
~ Bill Simmons~

THIS^ all day, what Ted?Tommy are about to do is INSANE

1000%. The Wiz have a ton of leverage. Idiotic not to negotiate. He should (definitely) not be paid more than $200mn/5 years. But Terd likes to bid against himself.

[AFM]

I posted this in the trade thread but it probably belongs here. I'd like to be able to reference it in the future:



Going by VORP, Bradley Beal was the 123rd best player in the NBA last year. Perhaps that's unfair because of the injury, but going by BPM, which is basically per-minute VORP, Beal was the 72nd best player in the NBA last year (among guys playing 1500+ minutes).

Going by Wins Above Replacement, Beal was the 117th best player in the NBA last year. Again, that's unfair because of his injury; but going by RAPTOR, which is basically per-minute WAR, Beal was the 80th best player in the NBA.

So by objective measures, using two well-respected measurements that factor his statistical production and on/off impact, and ignoring that he missed games due to injury, Beal was maybe the 75th best player in the league last year, give or take. The 75th highest paid player in the league last year was Clint Capela, who made $17.1M. He is owed $18.2M this year. That should be a starting point in the salary negotiation.

But let's give Beal the benefit of the doubt. Let's assume last year was a total aberration and that he deserves to be assessed based on his play the previous year when he was an All-NBA player.

In 2020-21, Beal ranked 24th by VORP, partially due to the minutes load he carried. BPM was a little less kind, ranking him 30th. In 2020-21, WAR ranked him 25th and RAPTOR ranked him 29th. So by objective measures, he was roughly the 30th best player in the league on a per-minute basis, but because of his durability, he was closer to 25th. The 25th highest paid player last year was Andrew Wiggins at $31M. He is owed $33M this year. That should be the upper end of his salary in an objective salary negotiation. And honestly, it's pretty risky to assume Beal can get back to his 2020-21 production because the rule changes appeared to affect his style of play more than most.

If I was Sheppard, I'd generously offer Beal a 5-year contract starting at his player option price of $36M, but it would not have raises. Indeed, I'd have it decline in the later years in anticipation of Beal's decline with age. I'd structure it something like this:

Year 1 - $36M
Year 2 - $36M
Year 3 - $33M
Year 4 - $30M
Year 5 - $27M (team option)

This is objectively more generous than he deserves. Call it gratitude for his long service. And to be fair, Beal also deserves a little consideration for the fact that he is a pro's pro who will work hard every offseason to maintain his skills and conditioning. There's less risk on that issue than for an average player. The only real negotiation I'd make would be that last year. I might be talked into making it non-guaranteed with a player option (basically, either side could void it). Or maybe I'd be nice and just make it a straight up player option.

If Beal refused to agree to these terms, I'd call his bluff and let him go negotiate a deal with Detroit. I honestly think letting him walk would be better for the franchise than signing him to a deal significantly higher than what I propose here.

If Beal does sign the contract, it would be one with a small enough cap hit that we could continue to build around him - maybe even adding a max free agent in 2024 when Porzingis comes off the books. But more importantly, it would be a very tradeable contract if we continue to flounder as a 10th seed.

Are the wizards just bidding against themselves? Who can offer Beal $? Detroit?

[TGW]

If Tommy and Ted give beal the supermax...it will be worse than anything Ernie has ever done. Give him 5 years-150 million and then try to trade him when you are able.

No, no, no. Sheppard is far and away better than Grunfeld. Look at the results.

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

[WallToWall]

I vaguely remember a BB tweet about taking less than the max. Wonder if that would be true.

[Tyrone Messby]

The irony of it all is if Beal signs a supermax he ends any chance of “building a contender” here Let’s be real, he does not care about winning just like our terrible owner. I’d take Snyder over Leonsis. That’s how much I can’t stand Ted.

[Halcyon]

The irony of it all is if Beal signs a supermax he ends any chance of “building a contender” here Let’s be real, he does not care about winning just like our terrible owner. I’d take Snyder over Leonsis. That’s how much I can’t stand Ted.

We have such horrible owners in town

[Jay81]

The irony of it all is if Beal signs a supermax he ends any chance of “building a contender” here Let’s be real, he does not care about winning just like our terrible owner. I’d take Snyder over Leonsis. That’s how much I can’t stand Ted.

snyder at least tried. He fired and hired a bunch of people to try to make something work. Ted just dosent care

[queridiculo]

Beal was never not going to sign the extension if offered.

Can’t blame him obviously, when you’re offered silly money you take it.

When we this invariably goes bad, like we all know it will, it all goes back to one of the most inept ownership groups in the league.

These guys are so hopped up from smelling their own farts they have no clue how much they’ve been **** the fans over since the monumentally incompetent one has taken over the reigns.