doclinkin wrote:But, both teams score, & despite what we think when we see a guy drop a ton of points, it's not a player's scoring volume that helps you win, it's his scoring volume at high efficiency.
And yet. That scoring volume is often what dictates the defense. It has an outsized effect on the scoring efficiency of the peripheral players. We see it most pronounced with Jokic whose ridiculous efficiency from outside coupled with his passing genius turns the court inside out like a used sweatsock. But if Jokic only took one 3 a game he wouldn’t have that effect.
If Stef was a situational sniper who set up in the corner and waited for open shots he wouldn’t be the labeled the most terrifying player to guard in the NBA.
Obviously you want your gunners to hit those shots. You want them to hit regardless of the defense. That’s what determines stardom. We don’t have a star on this team yet. Maybe. Unless Tre can translate what he did in college directly to the NBA.
But you make my point for me. Ultimately we should find a way to credit more heavily the sort of players who are able to maintain efficiency while their usage increases. Not just the guys who feed off their scraps. Naturally it shows up in the box score if a high usage player is also scoring well. That’s factor One. But sneakily it also shows up in the efficiency of the players around that guy. Role players look better supporting a star.
We’ve never seen a team win yet that is entirely comprised of Josh Harts. You can’t simply throw out on court a bunch of efficiency stars and role players and expect them to win. You need a Brunson to make a Hart. You need the guy that the other team is forced to foul to stop. Which was my point on FT attempts not being weighted heavily enough in most player evaluation metrics. The guy that teams are forced to foul has a real effect on the outcome of the game.
I dunno. Maybe it’s worth trying. Building a team of seniors and box score heroes from college. BBIQ guys. Then try to win with passing and rebounding and an evenly distributed load. Outside shooting. Not worrying about forcing fouls.
In a way I think that’s what the recent Celtics championship was. Tatum and Brown got the most credit but what won for them was the fact that every position on court had a skilled 3pt shooter deep into the bench.
Yeah seems like teams require both rather championship caliber teams seem to require both and a bit of luck. IE Kawhi Leonard's championship with the Raptors- he was a great lead player for sure but also had great supporting players like Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakim, Serge Ibaka, Marc Gasol, and Fred Van Vleet - multiple guys who made all star teams or in the case of Serge Ibaka 3 all NBA All defensive first teams at one point in their . Yes Kawhi is a great player although I wonder how another top caliber wing would have performed with that supporting cast- although Kawhi is a great defensive player and played a big role in slowing down Giannis in the conference finals.
It also becomes tricky to find the talent even on the similar teams. IE it was hard for most to identify that Kyle Lowry was the best player on the 2006 Villanova team. I would say that Lowry's sophomore season may have been better than Foye IIRC - but Foye seemed to have a more filled out game at least looking at the box score, Foye was a good rebounder and had a decent amount of assists (although his free throw rate and rebounding did not translate, along with his defense). But it was hard to quantify how much more tenacity Lowry had due to his lack of size and sub-par 3 point shooting at that stage of his career (was also called a trash bro for certain stints on the Raptors). But now his game will be remembered more because he got to play with Kawhi.
The Celtics are an interesting case with Tatum and the rest of his teammates. IE Tatum, White, and Holiday all made the Olympic team after they won the championship, but Holiday and White were the ones that received minutes over Tatum- not to mention that Jaylen Brown didn't even make the team. Have to wonder if that trend would have continued if the sample size was larger although one would have to bet that Tatum would improve his 3 point percentage to greater than 0 percent.
I think consistent minutes will allow him to improve, so there is that.