For what it's worth... [free agency: 7/8]

[nate33]

By all accounts, this draft class was just terrible. Guys like Sam Young looked good when compared to other dreck in this draft class, but he wouldn't impress anybody in a normal draft class.

The way I see it, we saved $3.7M over two years by not signing Blair. If we turn around and sign a guy like Rasho Nesterovic or Joe Smith for the LLE ($3.9M over 2 years), then it's a justifiable move. Smith/Nesterovic will surely be better in the short term over a rookie big man. And word is that Blair's days are numbered because of his knee situation. Chances are, his knees will give out at about the same time that he learns the NBA game and becomes a reliable player.

[Dat2U]

By all accounts, this draft class was just terrible. Guys like Sam Young looked good when compared to other dreck in this draft class, but he wouldn't impress anybody in a normal draft class.

The way I see it, we saved $3.7M over two years by not signing Blair. If we turn around and sign a guy like Rasho Nesterovic or Joe Smith for the LLE ($3.9M over 2 years), then it's a justifiable move. Smith/Nesterovic will surely be better in the short term over a rookie big man. And word is that Blair's days are numbered because of his knee situation. Chances are, his knees will give out at about the same time that he learns the NBA game and becomes a reliable player.

I don't quite understand your calculations. I'm assuming your calucating Blair for two seasons a $600K each plus the $2.5 million we received for the pick to get the $3.7 mil. But if we spend $3.9 on Nesterovic or Smith wouldn't that also equal a dollar for dollar tax on that salary so it's really $7.8 mil were kicking out?

Regarding on court performance, we need a 5th big, not a rotation level player. I honestly want to see McGee & Blatche get the majority of the minutes behind Jamison & Haywood. McGee needs to develop, he's truly the only x-factor we have on the roster. And for him to develop he needs to get minutes. Nesterovic is a solid backup but he insures McGee rots on the bench for most of the season. Same with Joe Smith. To me, adding a hard nosed rookie that could gibve up 5-10 minutes here or there and beat up on the bigs in practice would have been ideal. Plus cheaper IMO than your proposed scenario.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I think Blair's better than Smith or Nesterovic. Considerably better, most likely.I do believe Blair's days are numbered, but I bet he's fine for the next 2-3 years, which is the length of any deal he might have signed. I don't see why one-year rental of Miller's okay but not two for Blair.

What will be evident very early is how Blair plays for the Spurs. I think he should be as good as guys like Bass and Millsap right away. If that's the case and Blair stays healthy, I think Grunfeld should have drafted him. If OTOH he's just another rookie, then EG going for $3.7M will be justified.

[Dat2U]

Dude I would have loved to keep the 2nd round pick...I actually wanted Blair too. As a fan, I was throughly PO'd when I saw that they drafted whatever that guys name was and then traded him. But as the night went on, and more and more info surfaced about Blair's knees, the amount of cash the Wiz got for the pick, and the reason they sold the pick, it was hard for me to disagree with Grunfeld's decision. If you're the GM of a team that's facing the luxury tax, you have to weigh the positives vs. the negatives of your choices in a cost-effective way. Yes, the Wiz could have drafted Blair, paid double his contract in luxury tax fees, and hoped that he pans out. Maybe he becomes more than a 5th string big, grows 2 inches, and doesn't blow his knees out in the next two seasons. Or maybe not...no one knows. In this case, I simply think the potential risks of drafting Blair outweighed the potential reward IMO. They got 3x the worth of that pick in cash to use on another player that won't be as risky on the court or from a health aspect. I don't see how you can say that's a dumb decision. You may not agree with it, but the reasoning behind his decision is sound.

I hear ya bro and understand your point of view. I guess what makes me different is that I didn't come around to agreeing with what EG did. Mainly b/c its his previous moves that put us in the situation were facing with the luxury tax now. I saw alot a risk in overpaying and giving too many years to guys like AD, DSong & DeShawn. I also see alot risks in trading a high lottery pick for two guys entering their contract years, but I honestly saw little risk in spending a 2nd rounder on a 1st round talent that was arguably a perfect fit for the roster.

[verbal8]

My guess about Blair is he will be a poor-man's Corliss Williamson. Which I don't think is too bad for a guy who is drafted in the second round. I thought of Williamson as being a guy who was a stud in college who was a dud in the pros. However looking at his stats, he had some good seasons in the pros. It just he was not dominating the way he was in college.

[no D in Hibachi]

My guess about Blair is he will be a poor-man's Corliss Williamson. Which I don't think is too bad for a guy who is drafted in the second round. I thought of Williamson as being a guy who was a stud in college who was a dud in the pros. However looking at his stats, he had some good seasons in the pros. It just he was not dominating the way he was in college.

I think they are two entirely different players. When Williamson was in the NCAA's he had a phenomenal post game. He was a bruser, with finess. Blair is a high-energy hustle player and get's by on put backs and garbage buckets.

[quote="Dat2U
I don't quite understand your calculations. I'm assuming your calucating Blair for two seasons a $600K each plus the $2.5 million we received for the pick to get the $3.7 mil. But if we spend $3.9 on Nesterovic or Smith wouldn't that also equal a dollar for dollar tax on that salary so it's really $7.8 mil were kicking out?
[/quote]

The way I see it is that if Rasho or Smith sign for the LLE for one year it will cost roughly $1.8-1.9M. Multiply that by two, for lux tax reasons, and the amount spent would be $3.6-3.8. Blairs calculations run at the $2.5M plus 600K multiplied by two for lux tax reason equating to roughly $3.7M

[nate33]

I don't quite understand your calculations. I'm assuming your calucating Blair for two seasons a $600K each plus the $2.5 million we received for the pick to get the $3.7 mil. But if we spend $3.9 on Nesterovic or Smith wouldn't that also equal a dollar for dollar tax on that salary so it's really $7.8 mil were kicking out?

You are right. I forgot to factor luxtax calculations. Over the course of one year, somebody for the LLE would cost as much as Blair, but over the course of 2 years, Blair would be cheaper. That's assuming we use the LLE. However, if we're talking about signing a vet-minimum player, than the vet minimum guy would be much cheaper. Vet minimum guys cost just $825K, after doubling, they're $1.65M a year. Blair would have cost $1.2M a year (factoring luxtax). The $2.5M cash received easily makes up the difference over any time frame.

Of course, the next question is: will the guy we sign for the vet minimum be better than Blair? If it's Rasho or Joe Smith, then yes. If it's Brian Skinner, I'm not so sure.

[DCZards]

Of course, the next question is: will the guy we sign for the vet minimum be better than Blair? If it's Rasho or Joe Smith, then yes. If it's Brian Skinner, I'm not so sure.

That is indeed the question. Choosing a Rasho or Smith over a Blair means that the Zards are looking for a bigger, more experienced backup for Brendan. McGee or Blatche may someday fill that role but right now it makes sense to sign a decent vet (Rasho/Smith) rather than depend on the youngun's stepping it up.

The Zards don't have Song (or even Etan) to fall back on as BH's caddy so signing a big man with proven NBA credentials makes a ton of sense. Rasho nor Smith are going to set the world on fire but they bring you size, experience and savvy that a rookie Blair doesn't come close to matching. When you are trying to win right now like the Zards are obviously doing (as witnessed by the trade for Miller/Foye), vets are the way to go.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Having watched the Wizards play Songaila at C, and having seen Blair play C in the Big East, I'd guess he could play backup C and be better than Songaila.

At 600K, he'd have been fine is my guess.

[closg00]

F Blair. The guy the Wizards will regret passing on will be Sam Young. I think the decision to trade the pick was made before Blair, Young, etc were on the boards @ 32.

Oh so-true

[JWizmentality]

Oh boy, here we go. The start of the "The Wizards going to regret not drafting *insert man crush here*"

I must say, of all the regrets over the past few drafts...I can't say that I've felt the sting.

[Severn Hoos]

If I had to guess, I would say that even if the Wiz had drafted Blair, they still would have signed a vet big man like Joe Smith, Rasho, etc. I would have to imagine that the though of a big man bench consisting of three guys all under the age of 23 would not be appealing to Flip, no matter how much potential (Blatche, McGee) or maturity (Blair) they may have.

If so, the savings are still the same ($3.7M or so), but they miss out on the potential that Blair could develop.

[yungal07]

If I had to guess, I would say that even if the Wiz had drafted Blair, they still would have signed a vet big man like Joe Smith, Rasho, etc. I would have to imagine that the though of a big man bench consisting of three guys all under the age of 23 would not be appealing to Flip, no matter how much potential (Blatche, McGee) or maturity (Blair) they may have.

If so, the savings are still the same ($3.7M or so), but they miss out on the potential that Blair could develop.

I don't understand. If the Wiz drafted Blair, they wouldn't have gotten the cash from trading the pick. Are you saying that the cap savings would be the same if they had drafted Blair?

[mohammed10]

Oh boy, here we go. The start of the "The Wizards going to regret not drafting *insert man crush here*"

I must say, of all the regrets over the past few drafts...I can't say that I've felt the sting.

Fair enough, JWiz. Please insert DaJuan Summers for me.

In a year or two, Summers > Butler

[Severn Hoos]

If I had to guess, I would say that even if the Wiz had drafted Blair, they still would have signed a vet big man like Joe Smith, Rasho, etc. I would have to imagine that the though of a big man bench consisting of three guys all under the age of 23 would not be appealing to Flip, no matter how much potential (Blatche, McGee) or maturity (Blair) they may have.

If so, the savings are still the same ($3.7M or so), but they miss out on the potential that Blair could develop.

I don't understand. If the Wiz drafted Blair, they wouldn't have gotten the cash from trading the pick. Are you saying that the cap savings would be the same if they had drafted Blair?

Sorry, I probably wasn't very clear.

I'm saying that if they had drafted Blair, Flip would still want a veteran presence on the bench. Thus, they'd be signing a Joe Smith-type player regardless. So it'd be LLE for Smith and Blair or LLE for Smith and $3.7M savings. I just don't think they'd have drafted Blair and called it good.

Now, if you think Blair is worth $3.7M, then of course you draft him and make whatever other moves (like signing a vet) regardless.

[fishercob]

If I had to guess, I would say that even if the Wiz had drafted Blair, they still would have signed a vet big man like Joe Smith, Rasho, etc. I would have to imagine that the though of a big man bench consisting of three guys all under the age of 23 would not be appealing to Flip, no matter how much potential (Blatche, McGee) or maturity (Blair) they may have.

If so, the savings are still the same ($3.7M or so), but they miss out on the potential that Blair could develop.

Bingo. Blair's worth the risk to the Spurs. They're a veteran team with highly-decorated veteran bigs for Blair to lean on and learn from. We have McGee and Blatche as high-upside young bigs. We don't need another -- especially not one like Blair who the league basically sees as a ticking time bomb.

Even if we had drafted him and given us two or three good years before his knees exploded, what would that really get us? He's not the missing piece to a title, and he'd hinder the development of the two guys on this roster whose reaching of their potential could be the missing piece to a championship.

[Wizardspride]

Oh boy, here we go. The start of the "The Wizards going to regret not drafting *insert man crush here*"

I must say, of all the regrets over the past few drafts...I can't say that I've felt the sting.

Fair enough, JWiz. Please insert DaJuan Summers for me.

In a year or two, Summers > Butler

I believe you're right.

[W. Unseld]

Oh boy, here we go. The start of the "The Wizards going to regret not drafting *insert man crush here*"

I must say, of all the regrets over the past few drafts...I can't say that I've felt the sting.

Fair enough, JWiz. Please insert DaJuan Summers for me.

In a year or two, Summers > Butler

I believe you're right.

Summers will be playing at an all-star level in one or two years? I'll take that bet. Yeah, I know Caron didn't play at that level last year but I don't see Summers even being in the discussion for all-star in the next two seasons.

[wizards-fan]

"Washington tried something and it didn't work," James told reporters in Cleveland last night. "They lost in the first round again. We all know Washington is not a physical team. They tried to be physical and they lost."

Lebron James called out the Wizards for being soft, and he's right. Maybe the Wiz don't think that's an issue, maybe they think "length" is more important than "strength." I think it is an issue though, and I don't think adding a Rasho or Wilcox will fix that (and certainly neither will trading Mike James for Jared Jeffries).

If they want a veteran presence, fine. But there are two roster spots available and I just think it's a good idea to have at least one guy on the team who is a relentless glass eater with a big ass and a tough-guy attitude. Even at 6-7 Blair can be a pretty intimidating dude out there, and I'd bet a lot of players saw him body-slam 7-3 DPOY Thabeet, nearly breaking his arm, on the way to a 22 and 23 game. I think he could be an animal, and I mean that in a good way. So yes I'll take him over $2.5 million of someone elses money, even if he only plays in practice, even if he never becomes the next Barkley, and even if his knees "blow up after two seasons." Second round pick, non-guaranteed contract.

But what's done is done, and I understand the money side of it too. I'm grateful to Abe Pollin for putting out a team that is at least competitive, and I certainly am not in a position to ask Pollin to spend any more money than he has to or wants to. But as a fan, I'm just disappointed (temporarily).

I'll just post this montage and then I'm done:

[Dat2U]

Bingo. Blair's worth the risk to the Spurs. They're a veteran team with highly-decorated veteran bigs for Blair to lean on and learn from. We have McGee and Blatche as high-upside young bigs. We don't need another -- especially not one like Blair who the league basically sees as a ticking time bomb.

Even if we had drafted him and given us two or three good years before his knees exploded, what would that really get us? He's not the missing piece to a title, and he'd hinder the development of the two guys on this roster whose reaching of their potential could be the missing piece to a championship.

But Fish, one can very well say the same thing about the Miller & Foye acquistions.