Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011

[Ruzious]

If points per shot is an indicator, I would be very leery of Tyler Honeycutt's 1.19. That is horrible and bustworthy FWIW.

http://espn.go.com/ncb/player/profile?playerId=46171

That and his equally pathetic .83 assists/turnover and his .678 free throw percentage send red flags up. Averages 13.7 points on 43 percent NCAA shooting. I dunno ....

Yup, people will blame a lot of that on the lack of talent around him, but I don't buy it. He'd be a very entertaining streetball player; a not good NBA player, imo.

[Ed Wood]

If points per shot is an indicator, I would be very leery of Tyler Honeycutt's 1.19. That is horrible and bustworthy FWIW.

http://espn.go.com/ncb/player/profile?playerId=46171

That and his equally pathetic .83 assists/turnover and his .678 free throw percentage send red flags up. Averages 13.7 points on 43 percent NCAA shooting. I dunno ....

While I wouldn't throw out pps I don't think it's your one stop shop for accurate prognostication and projection in college player. Granted Honeycutt has not been lighting it up in college and if you draft him (and again he's a late first round pick to me) you're not doing it because of his production but consider the last six wings to come out of UCLA:

Trevor Ariza: however you feel about Trevor's current contract he's a legitimate NBA player. In his one year at UCLA (granted I don't think he played under Ben Howland, so he doesn't add weight to my "Howland Adjustment" but still: 11.6 points 6.5 rebounds and a .64 assist/turnover ratio with 1.15 points per shot in almost 32 minutes.

Aaron Afflalo: The guy who was supposedly a really good college player had a single year of over 1.4 pps, and in his final season averaged 16.9 points 2.8 rebounds and 1.09 assists per turnover. And Affalo was supposed to be a really good college player who's game might not translate to the pros.

Darren Collison was the one guy who was actually really good for Howland, and he's maybe the least successful (well he's right there with Afflalo and Ariza) and even he wan't much of a scorer in college and was another guy who's game was not at all sure to translate to the pros.

Russell Westbrook was pretty terrible in college. He managed 12.7 points in about 33 minutes on 1.27 pps in his sophomore year, though he did have a decent assist to turnover ratio (granted he was a point guard.

Jrue Holiday scored 8.5 points on 1.19 pps and people thought he was insane for coming out after the one year and that he'd crash and burn in the NBA.

Anyway, the point here is that anybody who is a guard and is any good who plays for Ben Howland basically plays better, often significantly better in the pros. And my goodness Howland's offense is ugly. So I cut UCLA wings a lot of slack now.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Really good stuff, Ed. Nice post.

Come to think of it I was down big time on Westbrook when he declared for the draft.

[mhd]

I have Derrick Williams as the top prospect for the Wiz now. He'd be the perfect fit as an extremely efficient player.

Honestly, he's probably a more athletic Jamison with better defense and a better outside shot coming in.

[Illuminaire]

How much better is his defense? Is he decent at both team and man defense? Just saying "better than Jamison" is sort of like saying "smarter than Gump."

[mhd]

Here is a comparison that just came into my head about Derrick Williams: A more efficient Carmello. Looks like the same bodies in terms of height and length. Both knew how to score. If anything, Williams is much more efficient and a better all around player coming into the league.

[pcbothwel]

Here is a comparison that just came into my head about Derrick Williams: A more efficient Carmello. Looks like the same bodies in terms of height and length. Both knew how to score. If anything, Williams is much more efficient and a better all around player coming into the league.

Thank you for mentioning this. I've seen the Jamison comps and they just seem off. Anthony is the perfect comparison, except I see Williams as a much more efficient and cerebral player.

[theboomking]

I just watched my DVR recordings of Arizona v UCLA and Arizona v USC. I was wrong in previously disagreeing with ruzious about Williams' athleticism. It is elite. Not only can Williams fly, but he has the coordination of a guy like Blake Griffin, and can catch and finish in traffic. Williams also is extraordinarily quick on the drive and is able to change directions suddenly, sometimes spinning away from players before going up from the dunk. I don't think he looks as sudden as Blake, but he is certainly impressive. Those dunks against UCLA were just ridiculous, and equally impressive was Williams' ability to knock down the 3 from outside when left uncovered. Against USC, Williams was also wearing a brace on his right hand, and looked excellent shooting the ball with his left hand in the post.

All that being said, I just don't see Williams as being much like Anthony at all. Anthony's handle is MUCH better than Williams, and Carmelo specializes in the long contested two. Wiliams is very quick and drives to the basket well, but usually uses one to two dribbles to get there. I don't see him as bringing the ball up the floor and/or dribble penetrating. Williams can also hit the perimeter J when he is given space, but I don't see him as creating space off the dribble to create a shot like Anthony.

Williams doesn't rebound as well as Blake did in college, but I think a poor man's version of Blake Griffin would be a better comparison. After having watched those two games, which really are consistent with what Williams has been doing all year, I would consider Derrick at #1 or probably #2 after Kyrie Irving. I might also put him a notch below Kanter, and that is going to be a tough assessment, since Kanter sin't playing ball this year. I definitely think I have him above Terrence Jones at this point, and probably above Sullinger and Perry Jones/Harrison Barnes.

Speaking of Barnes, he also looked really impressive against NC State. IMHO, Barnes' biggest problem thus far has been his lack of aggression/assertiveness. That wasn't the case against NC State, as Barnes was able to get his shot whenever he wanted, hit from the perimeter, midrange, and also was strong going to the hoop. You can tell that he has all of the tools to be an NBA player, despite his rough early season play.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Here is a comparison that just came into my head about Derrick Williams: A more efficient Carmello. Looks like the same bodies in terms of height and length. Both knew how to score. If anything, Williams is much more efficient and a better all around player coming into the league.

I also mentioned Melo earlier in this thread,mhd. On paper, Derrick Williams looks to be a potential superstar at SF.

[pancakes3]

he doesn't add weight to my "Howland Adjustment" but still

ed, i proselytize the howland adjustment like it's the gospel to anyone and everyone who would listen. may the fonz be with you.

[Ruzious]

Here is a comparison that just came into my head about Derrick Williams: A more efficient Carmello. Looks like the same bodies in terms of height and length. Both knew how to score. If anything, Williams is much more efficient and a better all around player coming into the league.

I also mentioned Melo earlier in this thread,mhd. On paper, Derrick Williams looks to be a potential superstar at SF.

Thing is - He might be pegged as strictly a PF - like Jamison and West. It'll be interesting to see how he gets utilized as a rookie in the NBA. I agree with you - If he can play the 3... wow.

Btw, it's great having these new posters - pc and boom.

[pcbothwel]

Here is a comparison that just came into my head about Derrick Williams: A more efficient Carmello. Looks like the same bodies in terms of height and length. Both knew how to score. If anything, Williams is much more efficient and a better all around player coming into the league.

I also mentioned Melo earlier in this thread,mhd. On paper, Derrick Williams looks to be a potential superstar at SF.

Not to be redundent with previous post I have made, but if we can pick up the Blake Griffen/Melo/Jeff Green hybrid in D. Williams or Jonas Valanciunas at the 3rd/4th pick, or Harrison Barnes at the 6th or 7th pick, we will be in a OKC style rebuild that will set us up for 5-8 years. You then leverage McGee or Blatche to upgrade another area.

BTW, As much as T.Jones intrigues me, does he remind anyone else of Marvin Williams a little too much.

[theboomking]

Here is a comparison that just came into my head about Derrick Williams: A more efficient Carmello. Looks like the same bodies in terms of height and length. Both knew how to score. If anything, Williams is much more efficient and a better all around player coming into the league.

I also mentioned Melo earlier in this thread,mhd. On paper, Derrick Williams looks to be a potential superstar at SF.

Thing is - He might be pegged as strictly a PF - like Jamison and West. It'll be interesting to see how he gets utilized as a rookie in the NBA. I agree with you - If he can play the 3... wow.

Btw, it's great having these new posters - pc and boom.

Thanks! I agree 100%. He currently looks like a PF only. I just don't think he can handle or create his own outside shot like you'd like him to. I do think that he might be a better defender at the 3 though. He seems to get muscled inside, and isn't very much of a rim protector or positional defender. IMHO, he'd be best on a team with a strong rim protector at the 5, that likes to run a lot.

I've got Terrence Jones set to record tonight. I haven't seen him live yet, but for about 10 minutes.

Does anybody here think that in a year like this we might be better served to trade down from #1 if we could land another player/pick? It's almost never a good idea high in the lotto, but the talent is so even across the top, if we have the top pick and someone wants to come up for Kyrie Irving, I'd think about it.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I also mentioned Melo earlier in this thread,mhd. On paper, Derrick Williams looks to be a potential superstar at SF.

Thing is - He might be pegged as strictly a PF - like Jamison and West. It'll be interesting to see how he gets utilized as a rookie in the NBA. I agree with you - If he can play the 3... wow.

Btw, it's great having these new posters - pc and boom.

Thanks! I agree 100%. He currently looks like a PF only. I just don't think he can handle or create his own outside shot like you'd like him to. I do think that he might be a better defender at the 3 though. He seems to get muscled inside, and isn't very much of a rim protector or positional defender. IMHO, he'd be best on a team with a strong rim protector at the 5, that likes to run a lot.

I've got Terrence Jones set to record tonight. I haven't seen him live yet, but for about 10 minutes.

Does anybody here think that in a year like this we might be better served to trade down from #1 if we could land another player/pick? It's almost never a good idea high in the lotto, but the talent is so even across the top, if we have the top pick and someone wants to come up for Kyrie Irving, I'd think about it.

Like Ruz, I appreciate your contributions to the board, pc and boom!

You've obviously watched him a great deal. I have not. What I see is he spends a whole lot of time on the FT line. He's certainly quick for a PF. I think because of his apparent range, he's a Jamison-like tweener. If he defends better than AJ, which is a definite, I think play him at SF. I mean, look at Rashard Lewis--he killed Paul Pierce just backing him down. It's not about creating as much as it is over-powering. I just see him being a good fit because he's got a post game and range.

As far as moving down goes, I know the team just got through drafting Booker and Seraphin, but I am a HUGE Kenneth Faried fan. The other night he surpassed David Robinson to move into the top-10 in NCAA double doubles. Faried a 23-point, 23-rebound game. Guy averages 17.1 pts/ 14.3rebs/ 1.2asts/ 2.2 stls/ 2.0 blks per game.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/player/pr ... erId=37289

Washington really needs a low-post scorer, but this guy's potentially a defensive stud. Scouts don't know his position. I think he's a college C/PF who will be just like Rodman, and one hellacious SF or PF at the next level. I cannot see why he's rated so low--because Faried will score better at the next level. Check the above link for his games 11/21/10 and 11/23/10 against Florida and Ohio State. He had much better numbers than Sullinger. Followed those two games with consecutive 20 rebound games.

Honestly, outside of Williams and Sullinger, there's nobody else I'm totally sold on besides Faried.

[nuposse04]

Maybe its the homer in me, but I'm hoping the wiz look to by a pic in the late 2nd round and give denzel Bowles a look. It is a homer pic cause he goes to JMU, but I think he could be a decent project big man. Although, unless JMU sneaks into the tourney I think he could go undrafted.

[Severn Hoos]

Ruz - transferring the Singleton comment from the Trade thread: You're not leaving me on Singleton now, are you? In a way, I'm kind of glad his production is not as high as it was earlier, the talk of him in the Lottery has certainly cooled down. I saw enough earlier to know two things:

1. He can be an absolute shut-down player, probably closest comp would be Artest. He's certainly big (really big) for SF, but still has enough quicks to guard the position. Plus, he can do spot duty (IMO) defending the SG & PF as needed.
2. He has a good shot, and has shown he can develop it further year over year. I get nervous when I see guys bulk up (Jeffries) or suddenly improve their combine scores drastically (remember when Tim Grover "made" Steven Hunter into a near-Lottery pick at #15?). But a good shot is a good shot, and I believe/hope that he'll continue to improve it when he's in the league and puts up 1,000 a day or so.

If we could snag a mid-first and pick him up, I'd be beyond ecstatic. If we could do it while moving Blatche, all the better. If we could do i while moving Blatche AND drafting Sullinger in the Lottery, then our toughness and BBall IQ just shot through the roof.

Wall/Vet backup
Young/Nolan Smith
Lewis/Singleton
Sullinger/Booker
McGee/Seraphin

Need some more veteran balance there, but I would feel very good rooting for that team compared to the current lineup.

And a PS - Faried works for me as well, feel free to plug him into Singleton's spot and call it good!

[Ruzious]

Yeah, I think Faried is more realistic than Singleton if we're talking about a 2nd half of the 1st round. I'd prefer Singleton because he can shoot (That's kinda important.), and defensively he's probably better and more versatile.

[REDardWIZskin]

wow, guys seem to be really fixed on Nolan Smith for the second round. he's not a bad player or athlete but I think that Chris Jenkins is the pick here if available. I don't think Nolan is bad and he'll have success at the next level but I like Jenkins A LOT

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Cha ... kins-6189/

[closg00]

I like Nolan Smith as-well, I'm all about us mitigating Wall's defensive and offensive liabilities by adding another scoring option who excels where John is weak. I understand that the Wiz are going to bring back Shakur according to Mike Lee (so-that we can have 1st dibs?), he's an option, but can he score?

Does Kevin count-against as a roster spot if we send him to France for a couple of years?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

wow, guys seem to be really fixed on Nolan Smith for the second round. he's not a bad player or athlete but I think that Chris Jenkins is the pick here if available. I don't think Nolan is bad and he'll have success at the next level but I like Jenkins A LOT

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Cha ... kins-6189/

I am with you on the stats of Charles Jenkins. They point out his isolation scoring is more proficient than Fredette's.

I see Jenkins as a really good second round pick. Like a Wesley Matthews, his college body of work suggests he should stick the next level. Might be as good as Nolan Smith, or better.