Otto Porter Part 2

[fishercob]

Lemme try that again...

02-03 -- 66, 84, 21
03-04 -- 119, 134, 11
04-05 -- 136, 149, 9
05-06 -- 127, 115, 10
06-07 -- 138, 128, 8
07-08 -- 132, 133, 1
08-09 -- 117, 98, 19
09-10 -- 123, 91, 35
10-11 -- 104, 62, 68
11-12 -- 81, 48, 69
12-13 -- 84, 65, 29
13-14 -- 60, 38, 57
14-15 -- 81, 73, 11

So, just an interesting statistical exercise/observation given Ruz's skepticism off WS/48: I am putting Prince's WS/48 numbers in bold indexed to 100 next to your PPA measure, just to see how they stack up.

If you average the discrepancy between WS/48 and PPA over the first 7 season of Prince's career, there virtually is none -- which may be a coincidence, but it's quite interesting.

Then from 09-10 until last year, the average discrepancy was huge, like 38%. Kevin, any idea as to what's behind these phenomena?

I don't think averaging the discrepancies over multiple years is a valid step methodologically. The shape of the curve is pretty different, and the biggest discrepancies are in the prime of his career.

WS/48 has his year 2 as the second best year of his career. PPA has it as the 6th best (i.e. right in the middle). WS/48 has his year 5 as the peak of his productivity. WS/48 has it 4th best. And a number of year-pairs that PPA says are very close, WS/48 ranks as very different. Viz. 03-04 and 08-09, and 02-03 and 13-14.

At least one of the two metrics is bizarrely off, and if WS/48 refers to "Win Shares", my money is on that one.

Now adding percentage discrepancy between the two metrics in red.

I don't agree that the biggest discrepancies are in his his prime. Years two through six had a maximum discrepancy of 11%. Years 1-7 had a maximum discrepancy of 21% -- and keep in mind he only played 435 minutes as a rookie. But the discrepancy starts to get much larger as his production drops. Again, I don't understand why and don't know enough about how either metric is calculated to venture a guess. It's just an observation. But it would be helpful to understand why over the past 5 seasons, PPA says Prince is a average/below average player and WS/48 says pretty stinky.

By the way, I realize we're looking at a single player here and the data may look completely different when looking at dozens or hundreds of players.

[dobrojim]

Porter is already a better wing defender than Butler or Jamison. He's also a better rebounder than Butler was.

His offensive game reminds me of Rip Hamilton. His movement gets him clean looks.

can you imagine Antawn, great leader of menTM-Dat, shutting down DeRozen in the playoffs?
Me neither.

[fishercob]

Amidst the early-season angst, I don't people to miss how good Otto has been through 6 games.

ORtg :120
Ws/48: .128
TS%: .637 -- amazing since he's shooting 29% from three. But he's shooting 70% (!) from 2 and 91% from the line. While I expect both of those numbers to drop, I bet he'll get up into the low-mid 30's from 3.

His assist percentage has nearly doubled, while his turnovers are basically flat -- as is his usage; I'd like to see more.

People forget he's only 22. He's going to be really good.

[tontoz]

He has started off very well. I think the 3pt shooting is just a small sample size issue. I am a little worried about his rebounding though. His rebounding was weak last year as well.

His BBIQ and off the ball movement are good for a few easy points each game, whether for himself or someone else.

[fishercob]

He has started off very well. I think the 3pt shooting is just a small sample size issue. I am a little worried about his rebounding though. His rebounding was weak last year as well.

His BBIQ and off the ball movement are good for a few easy points each game, whether for himself or someone else.

His defensive rebounding is flat. His offensive rebounding is flat. I'm not too concerned with it long term because I expect him to continue to add strength; he's super long and has a great nose for the ball.

I agree on his 3 pt shooting, but think the same sample applies to his 2 point shooting as well -- he's third in the league in 2 pt shooting percentage!

[TheSecretWeapon]

I'm hoping to have something up at the blog today, but...I have Porter with a PPA of 144 so far this season. That's 2nd on the team to Wall. Porter's usage rate is extremely low.

[tontoz]

The strange thing about Porter is that, though I like him, he reminds me a lot of a guy I really didn't like... Josh Childress. Childress used off the ball movement to get a lot of easy looks inside and was an efficient scorer. But he couldn't score outside 5 feet or play D which made him a very limited player. Porter can do both.

[dckingsfan]

I'm hoping to have something up at the blog today, but...I have Porter with a PPA of 144 so far this season. That's 2nd on the team to Wall. Porter's usage rate is extremely low.

Solidly better all around year over year. The only thing that bothers me is the defensive rebounding.

Code: Select all

Season     PER    TS%    DRB%    AST%  STL%  BLK%  TOV%   USG%
2013-14    6.0   0.405   13.3    4.6   1.3   0.3   12.7   15.6
2014-15   11.6   0.523   11.6    6.8   1.6   1.7   10.9   15.1
2015-16   15.6   0.637   11.5   12.0   1.6   0.7   11.3   14.7


[nuposse04]

I'm hoping to have something up at the blog today, but...I have Porter with a PPA of 144 so far this season. That's 2nd on the team to Wall. Porter's usage rate is extremely low.

Solidly better all around year over year. The only thing that bothers me is the defensive rebounding.

Code: Select all

Season     PER    TS%    DRB%    AST%  STL%  BLK%  TOV%   USG%
2013-14    6.0   0.405   13.3    4.6   1.3   0.3   12.7   15.6
2014-15   11.6   0.523   11.6    6.8   1.6   1.7   10.9   15.1
2015-16   15.6   0.637   11.5   12.0   1.6   0.7   11.3   14.7


This is just speculation, but just from watching the games it seems like the wing players as whole leak out too quick in order to abide by this pace intensive offense. If there was a larger commitment to defend the defensive glass I think it would be beneficial given our TO problem and inability to secure rebounds.

[Higga]

I remember Porter grabbing some big time tough rebounds in the playoffs last year. Loved the way he would just go up and get them instead of waiting for the ball(like *cough* Nene). As the season goes on his #s will stabilize.

[DCZards]

To paraphrase Dennis Green: "Porter is what we thought he was." He's an instinctive and unselfish player with a work ethic and high b'ball IQ infused into him by his blue-collar, basketball playing mother, father and uncles.These attributes were apparent from OP's first game in a Hoya uniform.

This is from an article about Otto when he was still in high school:

"Spend time speaking with the Porters and you feel a blue-collar aspect of their family. There isn't your typical thirst for attention that comes with the recruitment of a big-time player. In fact, it's just the opposite with Porter. There's a small town innocence surrounding him, yet his father knows all about the game and its pitfalls. He also knows home is where his son's personality, character and game were forged. He's a big prospect with small town values."

[fishercob]

To paraphrase Dennis Green: "Porter is what we thought he was." He's an instinctive and unselfish player with a work ethic and high b'ball IQ infused into him by his blue-collar, basketball playing mother, father and uncles.These attributes were apparent from OP's first game in a Hoya uniform.

This is from an article about Otto when he was still in high school:

"Spend time speaking with the Porters and you feel a blue-collar aspect of their family. There isn't your typical thirst for attention that comes with the recruitment of a big-time player. In fact, it's just the opposite with Porter. There's a small town innocence surrounding him, yet his father knows all about the game and its pitfalls. He also knows home is where his son's personality, character and game were forged. He's a big prospect with small town values."

This makes him even more valuable in today's world. It's a team game, and it's hugely important to have good players who aren't concerned with "getting theirs."

[TGW]

I wonder with Otto and Oubre on the wings with Beal/Oubre, should the Wizards even waste time and effort slobbing Durant until free agency?

If there's a good big available at the deadline (Love), and they want Nene and picks, I'd do it in a heartbeat. I can live with Porter a our 3, as he fits the 3D mold we're looking for.

[Higga]

I wonder with Otto and Oubre on the wings with Beal/Oubre, should the Wizards even waste time and effort slobbing Durant until free agency?

If there's a good big available at the deadline (Love), and they want Nene and picks, I'd do it in a heartbeat. I can live with Porter a our 3, as he fits the 3D mold we're looking for.

Well if you play Durant at the 4, you'd have Wall/Beal/Porter/Durant. That core wins a ring, so I'd still go for it.

[TGW]

I wonder with Otto and Oubre on the wings with Beal/Oubre, should the Wizards even waste time and effort slobbing Durant until free agency?

If there's a good big available at the deadline (Love), and they want Nene and picks, I'd do it in a heartbeat. I can live with Porter a our 3, as he fits the 3D mold we're looking for.

Well if you play Durant at the 4, you'd have Wall/Beal/Porter/Durant. That core wins a ring, so I'd still go for it.

Durant isn't coming here to play the four. I'm sure he doesn't want to have guarding power forwards the same way Lebron doesn't.

[dckingsfan]

Another very solid game...

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

To paraphrase Dennis Green: "Porter is what we thought he was." He's an instinctive and unselfish player with a work ethic and high b'ball IQ infused into him by his blue-collar, basketball playing mother, father and uncles.These attributes were apparent from OP's first game in a Hoya uniform.

This is from an article about Otto when he was still in high school:

"Spend time speaking with the Porters and you feel a blue-collar aspect of their family. There isn't your typical thirst for attention that comes with the recruitment of a big-time player. In fact, it's just the opposite with Porter. There's a small town innocence surrounding him, yet his father knows all about the game and its pitfalls. He also knows home is where his son's personality, character and game were forged. He's a big prospect with small town values."

HOF-worthy post IMO.

Dennis Green.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

To paraphrase Dennis Green: "Porter is what we thought he was." He's an instinctive and unselfish player with a work ethic and high b'ball IQ infused into him by his blue-collar, basketball playing mother, father and uncles.These attributes were apparent from OP's first game in a Hoya uniform.

This is from an article about Otto when he was still in high school:

"Spend time speaking with the Porters and you feel a blue-collar aspect of their family. There isn't your typical thirst for attention that comes with the recruitment of a big-time player. In fact, it's just the opposite with Porter. There's a small town innocence surrounding him, yet his father knows all about the game and its pitfalls. He also knows home is where his son's personality, character and game were forged. He's a big prospect with small town values."

This makes him even more valuable in today's world. It's a team game, and it's hugely important to have good players who aren't concerned with "getting theirs."

Yeah I like our SF. I don't need KD2DC. Ottomatic Porter is just gonna keep getting better.

Now, seems like Terrance Jones at stretch four and keep the band together makes sense.

Band of brothers being Wall, Beal, Porter, Gortat and right vets long term. Temple I like at his type price. Humphries got in and out of Kardashian and he now splashes threes. I like him. Blair I love but if you don't think like I do or have sons or you ain't big your self--I get the hate. Dudley is a smart BALLER. Sessions I like from Nevada vs UH (Hawaii). Knew he was a baller! The kid who was a senior ahead of Javale at C was hurt. Fazekas, Nick, I think he's playing in Greece. Sessions can ball.

This season I wish Washington had a Portis, or Chris McCullough, or Christian Wood; but I love own nut grabbing NBA fine Oubre! Swagger. All day long swagger. Wish he and Jan Vesley were rookies together. Heck, I wish J Ves was on THIS team...

Otto Porter is exceeding my expectations.

[dobrojim]

love OP too but if we can land Durant, we oughta be in the conversation about
who is a genuine contender. Wall/Beal/KD/OP/Gortat/KO/TS. That's a sold core.

What I esp like about OP is even when he has a subpar shooting game, you look at
his +/- and it can still be pretty good. He just makes plays and does so all over the court
on offense or defense.

[dckingsfan]

Keep going Otto...

http://tinyurl.com/nbdjn6q