2021 Draft thread. Woo! 15th pick here we come! Hoo. Ray.

[doclinkin]

Mobley with 20 points, 11 boards, 6 blocks and 2 steals against Washington State.

I don't think so, he's too skinny to post those numbers. Check them again.

[prime1time]

Mobley with 20 points, 11 boards, 6 blocks and 2 steals against Washington State.

I don't think so, he's too skinny to post those numbers. Check them again.

His lack of strength is a real concern that should not be glossed over. I don't care what numbers he posts vs college teams. Joel Embiid is 7'0 280. Jokic is 6'11, 284. He needs to add strength. Or else you're basically locking yourself into a permanent disadvantage. He could put up 40, 20, 20. The issue is how does he compare to elite centers. KD is 240 and a twig. Mobley is an appalling 210 pounds. If it's a draft with no other elite players then fine. Barring major injuries I think there will be a HOF in the top 5 picks. And that kind of disadvantage, without the ability to correct it puts him at the bottom of the list. The advantage with Mobley comes from his ability to play the 5. And bring his floor spacing, lateral quickness, shooting, body control, rim protection and skill to the 5 positions. If against scoring centers we have to trot out another big man because Mobley is too skinny to guard them, it defeats the purpose. And it's not a given that he can add weight. Haliburton is 6'5 175, and I remember thinking before the draft that once he gets up to around 210, he's going to be a force. Then I read that he's been trying to add weight for years and never succeeded. Mobley's weight is closer to Bol Bol than AD and not being able to add weight puts him behind Green, Cunningham and Kuminga.

Tbh, even if he does add weight, I doubt he's ever strong enough to guard Jokic or Embiid. Doesn't mean you don't take him, but it does mean you have to plan for him being a 4/5 like AD. And then think about what type of center you can pair with him. It also means that his shooting which is solid for a 5, needs to significantly improve. 30% from 3 and 70% from the ft line isn't going to cut it for a stretch 4.

[doclinkin]

Mobley with 20 points, 11 boards, 6 blocks and 2 steals against Washington State.

I don't think so, he's too skinny to post those numbers. Check them again.

His lack of strength is a real concern that should not be glossed over. I don't care what numbers he posts vs college teams. Joel Embiid is 7'0 280. Jokic is 6'11, 284. He needs to add strength. Or else you're basically locking yourself into a permanent disadvantage. He could put up 40, 20, 20. The issue is how does he compare to elite centers. KD is 240 and a twig. Mobley is an appalling 210 pounds. If it's a draft with no other elite players then fine. Barring major injuries I think there will be a HOF in the top 5 picks. And that kind of disadvantage, without the ability to correct it puts him at the bottom of the list. The advantage with Mobley comes from his ability to play the 5. And bring his floor spacing, lateral quickness, shooting, body control, rim protection and skill to the 5 positions. If against scoring centers we have to trot out another big man because Mobley is too skinny to guard them, it defeats the purpose. And it's not a given that he can add weight. Haliburton is 6'5 175, and I remember thinking before the draft that once he gets up to around 210, he's going to be a force. Then I read that he's been trying to add weight for years and never succeeded. Mobley's weight is closer to Bol Bol than AD and not being able to add weight puts him behind Green, Cunningham and Kuminga.

Tbh, even if he does add weight, I doubt he's ever strong enough to guard Jokic or Embiid. Doesn't mean you don't take him, but it does mean you have to plan for him being a 4/5 like AD. And then think about what type of center you can pair with him. It also means that his shooting which is solid for a 5, needs to significantly improve. 30% from 3 and 70% from the ft line isn't going to cut it for a stretch 4.

Kevin Garnett's draft weight was 220. Never added size. Tim Duncan was slim as a freshman. The two most rare qualities of a basketball player are height and aptitude. Every year we see players with one of the qualities and not the other. The world doesn't grow many athletic 7 footers.

However, equally rare is the mindset to swiftly pick up the game. When you see a player who is productive young you make note. A Big who posts assists and steals and understands defensive positioning, is a player that tends to win at the next level. (In highschool Mobley averaged ~ 5 assists a game. Good for a center). More key than the bulk to shove Jokic and Embiid is the ability to slide to stay in front of a guard on the pick and roll. We have seen mammoth bigs who are unable to play due to defensive liabilities.

You are writing off a guy who is 19 years old. Discounting the fact that he has added 12lbs since Feb 2020. (As measured for USA Select team). Evan Mobley has a frame that will add strength. You are missing the kid's quads. He runs like Dennis Rodman, with that easy high kick. More importantly though you are missing the evidence of his clear understanding of the moment. The read/react software to influence a game. Is he a surefire hall of fame player? No. But he has good size. Work ethic. National Honors Society. Understanding of the game. Tell you what, I'd rather have Mobley guarding Embiid or especially Jokic than try last year's #2 overall pick against them. Wiseman has ideal size for a center, and no understanding of what to do with it. (Reference JaVale. etc) Smarts are key in today's game. Bulk musculature is an afterthought in bigs.

In truth Evan's frame carrying only athletic weight is a positive sign to me. Players like Embiid have to sit out a ton of games every year due to tweaks and injuries and load management. If you get a productive player who is always available, you will get more out of them than a bigger guy who has to rest all the time. Evan is smooth, not trying to do too much, sees his opportunities and is taking them.

Is he the best player in the draft? I don't know. He doesn't show a competitive rage, need to dominate, he is smooth in all respects even in competition. Improvement is key to me in judging a player, he is getting better swiftly from what I can tell, against good competition, but it is always hard to judge a freshman. Still, in an era where Bigs are commonly unplayable due to a lack of understanding of the game, it is a good sign to see a player who gets it the second they step on the court.

[prime1time]

I don't think so, he's too skinny to post those numbers. Check them again.

His lack of strength is a real concern that should not be glossed over. I don't care what numbers he posts vs college teams. Joel Embiid is 7'0 280. Jokic is 6'11, 284. He needs to add strength. Or else you're basically locking yourself into a permanent disadvantage. He could put up 40, 20, 20. The issue is how does he compare to elite centers. KD is 240 and a twig. Mobley is an appalling 210 pounds. If it's a draft with no other elite players then fine. Barring major injuries I think there will be a HOF in the top 5 picks. And that kind of disadvantage, without the ability to correct it puts him at the bottom of the list. The advantage with Mobley comes from his ability to play the 5. And bring his floor spacing, lateral quickness, shooting, body control, rim protection and skill to the 5 positions. If against scoring centers we have to trot out another big man because Mobley is too skinny to guard them, it defeats the purpose. And it's not a given that he can add weight. Haliburton is 6'5 175, and I remember thinking before the draft that once he gets up to around 210, he's going to be a force. Then I read that he's been trying to add weight for years and never succeeded. Mobley's weight is closer to Bol Bol than AD and not being able to add weight puts him behind Green, Cunningham and Kuminga.

Tbh, even if he does add weight, I doubt he's ever strong enough to guard Jokic or Embiid. Doesn't mean you don't take him, but it does mean you have to plan for him being a 4/5 like AD. And then think about what type of center you can pair with him. It also means that his shooting which is solid for a 5, needs to significantly improve. 30% from 3 and 70% from the ft line isn't going to cut it for a stretch 4.

Kevin Garnett's draft weight was 220. Never added size. Tim Duncan was slim as a freshman. The two most rare qualities of a basketball player are height and aptitude. Every year we see players with one of the qualities and not the other. The world doesn't grow many athletic 7 footers.

However, equally rare is the mindset to swiftly pick up the game. When you see a player who is productive young you make note. A Big who posts assists and steals and understands defensive positioning, is a player that tends to win at the next level. (In highschool Mobley averaged ~ 5 assists a game. Good for a center). More key than the bulk to shove Jokic and Embiid is the ability to slide to stay in front of a guard on the pick and roll. We have seen mammoth bigs who are unable to play due to defensive liabilities.

You are writing off a guy who is 19 years old. Discounting the fact that he has added 12lbs since Feb 2020. (As measured for USA Select team). Evan Mobley has a frame that will add strength. You are missing the kid's quads. He runs like Dennis Rodman, with that easy high kick. More importantly though you are missing the evidence of his clear understanding of the moment. The read/react software to influence a game. Is he a surefire hall of fame player? No. But he has good size. Work ethic. National Honors Society. Understanding of the game. Tell you what, I'd rather have Mobley guarding Embiid or especially Jokic than try last year's #2 overall pick against them. Wiseman has ideal size for a center, and no understanding of what to do with it. (Reference JaVale. etc) Smarts are key in today's game. Bulk musculature is an afterthought in bigs.

In truth Evan's frame carrying only athletic weight is a positive sign to me. Players like Embiid have to sit out a ton of games every year due to tweaks and injuries and load management. If you get a productive player who is always available, you will get more out of them than a bigger guy who has to rest all the time. Evan is smooth, not trying to do too much, sees his opportunities and is taking them.

Is he the best player in the draft? I don't know. He doesn't show a competitive rage, need to dominate, he is smooth in all respects even in competition. Improvement is key to me in judging a player, he is getting better swiftly from what I can tell, against good competition, but it is always hard to judge a freshman. Still, in an era where Bigs are commonly unplayable due to a lack of understanding of the game, it is a good sign to see a player who gets it the second they step on the court.

To be clear your initial post made light of his skinny frame. Are you saying that if Mobley never adds a pound he should still be considered the premier player in the draft? I’ve read 5 scouting reports on Mobley. They all say the same thing, needs to add weight and become stronger. That’s is a completely legitimate concern.

Duncan added muscle after his freshman year. No one said, who cares if he adds weight. He’s skilled. How does Duncan’s career go if he remained a twig. Duncan is an elite player because he added weight. And the same may be said about Mobley IF he adds weight. I just googled KG’s playing weight it was 250. As much as we only want to talk about bigs who gained weight and muscle, there are bigs who cannot add muscle and strength. So no, it shouldn’t just be assumed that he can add muscle. It’s a completely legitimate concern and in a draft with other elite players if you don’t believe that he can add weight, I don’t see why you would take him first overall. Even if he could add weight, there’s still debate to be had between him and the other elite players in this draft.

AD is 250 he plays the 4. Giannis is 240 he plays the 4. And in a playoff series neither of them are guarding Jokic or Embiid for extended stretches. So let’s game it out, if Mobley is on our team and we have to play the 76ers, how do we defend them? If Mobley has to play the 4, is his shooting good enough to provide adequate floor spacing? These are all completely legitimate questions. We know Mobley is skilled, but we should critically discuss how one would go about building a championship team around him. If we end up with Mobley, I’d be overjoyed, but there are still questions about him that need to be answered. And regardless how well he plays, those questions need answers.

[nate33]

KG was 217 pounds as a prospect. There is no way he weighed 250 except maybe in his last year or two. I'd guess he spent most of his career weighing 230-235.

[doclinkin]

To be clear your initial post made light of his skinny frame. Are you saying that if Mobley never adds a pound he should still be considered the premier player in the draft?

I'm saying your posts make too much of it.

He's grown an inch since 2019. Added 12lbs in that time. Despite the appearance of narrow shoulders he has a 7.5" wingspan. He has athletic bounce. If the combine were today he would likely be atop the boards in max reach (jump plus standing reach) with a reported 40 inch vertical and those long arms. He has massive hands with one-hand control of the basketball, can jump to catch a ball one handed instead of blocking (accounting for some of those steals numbers). Physically he is fine. Scouts decry that the combine has dropped the bench press from the combine measurements because in the past it has shown to have a reliably NEGATIVE correlation with success. Players are more likely to succeed with smarts and nimble feet than a thick torso or pythons for arms. Aside from LeBron and Griffin, who in the NBA is built like a tight end? Zion I guess -- who can't stay on the floor since his bounce is too powerful for his joints. Ditto Griffin. Mobley has functional athleticism that works well with his build.

I'm saying you make too much of his frame since he is showing success at a high level. He beat Wiseman in highschool, and any big that has been thrown against him. Chiefly because Mobley has the thing that matters most: game smarts. Show me who is pushing him around at the college level? I get the feeling whatever his shortfalls are, he will adjust. That's what matters most. He has been on scouts radar a long time, played for the U17 -> U19 USA basketball squad, was tapped for the USA Select team last year. Both his parents were basketball players, his dad is a basketball coach. His brother's a talented player, there is built in competition at home. And after struggling on the USA squads early he has developed quickly to the point where he won the Wootten award last year as the best high school player in the country.

His software for the game surpasses questions about his hardware, especially on a kid who is still growing. Check him catch/blocking the shot in this reel:

Read on Twitter

[Ruzious]

At the other end of the center draft prospects spectrum is Jay Huff of UVA - a 23 year old 5th year senior who most don't think will get drafted. I think he can step in as a rookie in the NBA and contribute. Even playing at UVA's slow pace, he's putting up outstanding numbers - including shooting 47.3 from 3 point range. He was regarded as a poor rebounder, but that's because UVA's played at such a slow pace in his 5 years. Per 100 possessions, he's a very good rebounder - at 17.0 per (Mobley gets 15.6.). He's a great rim defender in college. Granted, he won't be a dominant defender in the NBA, but he's still going to be effective against slower bigs. He's a legit 7'1 240, and he's not a klutz. Has dramatically improved his FT% from 54.0% to 78.8%. Not many players make 71.1% of their 2's and 47.3% of their 3's. He's UVA's top player (with all due respect to Sam Hauser), and once again - they're a top 10 team.

But UVA's best prospect... isn't Huff or Hauser - it's Trey Murphy III - 6'9 with the ability to play the 2 and a pure shooter. Again, his numbers are held down some by UVA's deliberate style, and he would benefit by being more aggressive. He needs to get stronger, but at 20 - he should be able to do that. I think he's a better prospect than similarly sized/skilled players like Cameron Johnson and Rodney Hood.

Btw, with Hauser, Huff, and Murphy UVA has 3 terrific 3 point shooters.

[Ruzious]

Watch on YouTube

Jalen Green has had 2 straight excellent games in the G League. It looks like the top tier now has 5 players.

[Ruzious]

Stock down - Jalen Johnson for quitting Duke to get ready for the draft. Obviously things did not work out well with him and Coach K. He had 2 great games and a lot of mediocrity.

[payitforward]

At the other end of the center draft prospects spectrum is Jay Huff of UVA - a 23 year old 5th year senior who most don't think will get drafted. I think he can step in as a rookie in the NBA and contribute. Even playing at UVA's slow pace, he's putting up outstanding numbers - including shooting 47.3 from 3 point range. He was regarded as a poor rebounder, but that's because UVA's played at such a slow pace in his 5 years. Per 100 possessions, he's a very good rebounder - at 17.0 per (Mobley gets 15.6.). He's a great rim defender in college. Granted, he won't be a dominant defender in the NBA, but he's still going to be effective against slower bigs. He's a legit 7'1 240, and he's not a klutz. Has dramatically improved his FT% from 54.0% to 78.8%. Not many players make 71.1% of their 2's and 47.3% of their 3's. He's UVA's top player (with all due respect to Sam Hauser), and once again - they're a top 10 team. ...

Nice...! That .708 TS% this year is a wow!

[nate33]

Stock down - Jalen Johnson for quitting Duke to get ready for the draft. Obviously things did not work out well with him and Coach K. He had 2 great games and a lot of mediocrity.

Yeah, that's really going to hurt him unless there were extenuating circumstances that we don't know about. I wonder what happened? It's hard to see how this is a good move for his future in any way. It just doesn't make sense.

He might have been better off going the Kaminga/Green route and playing in the G-League.

[Ruzious]

At the other end of the center draft prospects spectrum is Jay Huff of UVA - a 23 year old 5th year senior who most don't think will get drafted. I think he can step in as a rookie in the NBA and contribute. Even playing at UVA's slow pace, he's putting up outstanding numbers - including shooting 47.3 from 3 point range. He was regarded as a poor rebounder, but that's because UVA's played at such a slow pace in his 5 years. Per 100 possessions, he's a very good rebounder - at 17.0 per (Mobley gets 15.6.). He's a great rim defender in college. Granted, he won't be a dominant defender in the NBA, but he's still going to be effective against slower bigs. He's a legit 7'1 240, and he's not a klutz. Has dramatically improved his FT% from 54.0% to 78.8%. Not many players make 71.1% of their 2's and 47.3% of their 3's. He's UVA's top player (with all due respect to Sam Hauser), and once again - they're a top 10 team. ...

Nice...! That .708 TS% this year is a wow!

Of course, right after I insist UVA is so good - they get blown out by FLaST, and Huff puts up a stinker.

[prime1time]

To be clear your initial post made light of his skinny frame. Are you saying that if Mobley never adds a pound he should still be considered the premier player in the draft?

I'm saying your posts make too much of it.

He's grown an inch since 2019. Added 12lbs in that time. Despite the appearance of narrow shoulders he has a 7.5" wingspan. He has athletic bounce. If the combine were today he would likely be atop the boards in max reach (jump plus standing reach) with a reported 40 inch vertical and those long arms. He has massive hands with one-hand control of the basketball, can jump to catch a ball one handed instead of blocking (accounting for some of those steals numbers). Physically he is fine. Scouts decry that the combine has dropped the bench press from the combine measurements because in the past it has shown to have a reliably NEGATIVE correlation with success. Players are more likely to succeed with smarts and nimble feet than a thick torso or pythons for arms. Aside from LeBron and Griffin, who in the NBA is built like a tight end? Zion I guess -- who can't stay on the floor since his bounce is too powerful for his joints. Ditto Griffin. Mobley has functional athleticism that works well with his build.

I'm saying you make too much of his frame since he is showing success at a high level. He beat Wiseman in highschool, and any big that has been thrown against him. Chiefly because Mobley has the thing that matters most: game smarts. Show me who is pushing him around at the college level? I get the feeling whatever his shortfalls are, he will adjust. That's what matters most. He has been on scouts radar a long time, played for the U17 -> U19 USA basketball squad, was tapped for the USA Select team last year. Both his parents were basketball players, his dad is a basketball coach. His brother's a talented player, there is built in competition at home. And after struggling on the USA squads early he has developed quickly to the point where he won the Wootten award last year as the best high school player in the country.

His software for the game surpasses questions about his hardware, especially on a kid who is still growing. Check him catch/blocking the shot in this reel:

Read on Twitter

I think it's a fair criticism. AD doesn't play the 5. Giannis doesn't play the 5. Who's to say that Mobley can play the 5? Can he add muscle? Some people can't but he probably can. How much can he add? Is it realistic to think that he can get to 250? Is it realistic to think that he can guard Embiid or Jokic? With Green, Cunningham, Suggs and Kuminga also in this draft, these are questions that need to be asked.

[nate33]

Giannis should play the 5 - at least during crunch time and the playoffs.

[Dat2U]

Stock down - Jalen Johnson for quitting Duke to get ready for the draft. Obviously things did not work out well with him and Coach K. He had 2 great games and a lot of mediocrity.

I've seen enough that I wouldn't consider him with our 1st round pick.

[NatP4]

Have only been able to watch 1.5 out of the 4 g league ignite games. Specifically missed the games in which Green seems to have played well based on the box scores. I’m curious now.

According to the on/off numbers, green&kuminga have been about the same level of impact, pretty good on both ends. Jarret Jack has been far and away the best player on that team. Nix has been a trainwreck since his good performance in game 1.

[NatP4]

Wagner is better prospect than Kuminga&Green in my opinion.

[prime1time]

Wagner is better prospect than Kuminga&Green in my opinion.

The best thing about basketball is that we get to see who's right and who's wrong. My GF went to Michigan so I've caught several of there games. Wagner has shown nothing that convinces me he will be able to get to the hoop consistently. Wagner's best case scenario is a 3 and D and he's shooting 33% from 3. His FT% is an amazing 85% which suggests that there is potential there, but at best you're looking at an above-average 3-point shooter who will struggle to create and make plays consistently against NBA defenders. Wagner's most likely scenario is like nba journeyman. If he develops into a good 3-point shooter, he might stick as a solid rotational piece but there is nothing to suggest any capacity for high-end ability. So ultimately, all your post is basically saying is that Kuminga and Green will be busts. Again there's nothing wrong with that, but at the very least you should explain why.

[prime1time]

Have only been able to watch 1.5 out of the 4 g league ignite games. Specifically missed the games in which Green seems to have played well based on the box scores. I’m curious now.

According to the on/off numbers, green&kuminga have been about the same level of impact, pretty good on both ends. Jarret Jack has been far and away the best player on that team. Nix has been a trainwreck since his good performance in game 1.

I wouldn't put much stock in on/off numbers in the G-league. It's a glorified scrimmage, where teams lack cohesion and players are literally just playing for scouts.

[pcbothwel]

Wagner is better prospect than Kuminga&Green in my opinion.

The best thing about basketball is that we get to see who's right and who's wrong. My GF went to Michigan so I've caught several of there games. Wagner has shown nothing that convinces me he will be able to get to the hoop consistently. Wagner's best case scenario is a 3 and D and he's shooting 33% from 3. His FT% is an amazing 85% which suggests that there is potential there, but at best you're looking at an above-average 3-point shooter who will struggle to create and make plays consistently against NBA defenders. Wagner's most likely scenario is like nba journeyman. If he develops into a good 3-point shooter, he might stick as a solid rotational piece but there is nothing to suggest any capacity for high-end ability. So ultimately, all your post is basically saying is that Kuminga and Green will be busts. Again there's nothing wrong with that, but at the very least you should explain why.

When projecting players you have to see attributes that forecast success versus those that dont. If we've learned anything about the game today, its that high IQ, defensive versatility, high motor, and projectable shooting almost always lead to success.

You point out his issues with creating and you are not wrong. That is due to a mediocre first step and ball handling (The latter of which can be improved. See Beal, Bradley).
But even with issues he still shows to be a very high level rebounder, defender on both the perimeter and interior that gets STOCKS, and AST:TOV ratio. Thats motor and IQ.
Go watch that Maryland game and the assist. Yes, its just 4 and that would stand out unless you actually watch tape. None of the 4 were routine passes where the other player just made a shot. All required vision, patience, and precision.

He needs to work on ball handling and speeding up his shot, but the IQ, defense, motor, and size are going to carry him.
In a way, he reminds me of Deni and two of those guys at the 3/4 make our team much better. High IQ, activity, rebounding, valuing possessions, defending multiple possessions and staying aware of other players is how you win games.

I dont think Kuminga & Green will bust. Im scared of Greens archetype, but he seems to have the work ethic, athleticism, and aggression to be a solid player. I just worry think he is more Jeremy Lamb/Jr Smith, while Wagner is Gordon Hayward/High Motor Nic Batum.