Rui Hachimura 2.0

[prime1time]

He should also improve his ball-handling, playmaking, mid-range shooting, low-post scoring, on-ball defense, basketball-iq.

This is my issue. I've been a Rui fan from the get go and LOVE seeing his shot fall, but man he appears really slow with a poor handle along with a very cavalier demeanor.
He doesnt get by anyone like he did last year and doesnt have the array of counters that Kuz has.

Again, the only way this team can put together a contender (Other than Beal bouncing back and KP staying healthy) is Deni breaking out and trading either Rui or Kuz.

Yeah, it's looking more and more like Rui is going to be less of a primary scorer, and more of a 3&D role player. That's still useful. Every team can use a guy who can defend 3 through 5 while hitting catch-and-shoot 3's. But that's more like the 5th or 6th best guy in a rotation, not a top 4 guy. Basically, he could be the next Jae Crowder.

The problem is, a guy like Jae Crowder is typically worth the MLE or less, which means nearly every team in the league will have the ability to go after him in free agency and prevent us from resigning him to a team friendly contract. With that the case, we ought to consider trading him this offseason instead of letting him walk for nothing in 2023. I'd be curious to see what deals are out there this summer if Rui is coming off a 40-game season with him shooting north of 45% from 3-point range. I'd love to pick up a mid 1st round pick or an undeveloped talent like Jalen Suggs who has more years left on his rookie deal.

If Rui was a hyper active defender and decision maker on defense like Avdija, he'd be worth a lot more. I'd love for him to become a sharp-shooting version of Aaron Gordon, but I'm losing hope that he has the innate basketball IQ to ever get there.

I have to completely disagree. You make the connection to Jae Crowder but you ignore the success of the Suns. Why do you think the Suns are so succesful? Because they actively try to get rid of players that are conducive to winning? This season Jae Crowder is shooting 34.8% from 3. Rui is shooting 52.2% from 3. And going back to the start of his playoffs last year he's shooting 54% from 3. Most great 3-point shooters in this league, excluding stars, are absolute liabilities defensively. Even what we call "3 and D" isn't really 3. Robert Covington shoots 34% from 3. Saddiq Bey shoots 34.4% from 3. OG Anunoby shoots 34.4% from 3.

Any player that can make 3's and is not a complete liability defensively, is very conducive to winning. To just trade him is short-sighted and shows that we aren't trying to build a contender. The thing to do now with Rui is put him in the starting lineup, significantly increase his 3-point attempts and also try to continue his development as a player. Good teams don't trade players like Rui Hachimura unless they are getting a star back in return. Trading him for Jalen Suggs would be a disaster.

With all the criticism of Hachimura on this thread, the reality is that any contender would want him. Good teams do their best to stockpile players like him. Look at the Suns. Cam Johnson. Jae Crowder. Mikal Bridges. Landry Shamet. But the Wizards, we find one guy who can do both and the first thing we think about doing is trading him.

[prime1time]

Wizards fans are obsessed with finding perfect players. My post about all the things Hachimura could improve was sarcasm. Yes, if he improved all those things we would probably have an all-star on our hands. Not every player needs to be an all-star. A player doesn't have to be good at everything to have value. You take what a player does well and you craft a role that is suited to it. But with Wizards fans that are obsessed about turning every player we draft into a star, we ignore what a player does well and how that could fit into crafting a winning team and focus on what a player doesn't do. Unless we are talking about trading for a star Rui should be untouchable.

[nate33]

This is my issue. I've been a Rui fan from the get go and LOVE seeing his shot fall, but man he appears really slow with a poor handle along with a very cavalier demeanor.
He doesnt get by anyone like he did last year and doesnt have the array of counters that Kuz has.

Again, the only way this team can put together a contender (Other than Beal bouncing back and KP staying healthy) is Deni breaking out and trading either Rui or Kuz.

Yeah, it's looking more and more like Rui is going to be less of a primary scorer, and more of a 3&D role player. That's still useful. Every team can use a guy who can defend 3 through 5 while hitting catch-and-shoot 3's. But that's more like the 5th or 6th best guy in a rotation, not a top 4 guy. Basically, he could be the next Jae Crowder.

The problem is, a guy like Jae Crowder is typically worth the MLE or less, which means nearly every team in the league will have the ability to go after him in free agency and prevent us from resigning him to a team friendly contract. With that the case, we ought to consider trading him this offseason instead of letting him walk for nothing in 2023. I'd be curious to see what deals are out there this summer if Rui is coming off a 40-game season with him shooting north of 45% from 3-point range. I'd love to pick up a mid 1st round pick or an undeveloped talent like Jalen Suggs who has more years left on his rookie deal.

If Rui was a hyper active defender and decision maker on defense like Avdija, he'd be worth a lot more. I'd love for him to become a sharp-shooting version of Aaron Gordon, but I'm losing hope that he has the innate basketball IQ to ever get there.

I have to completely disagree. You make the connection to Jae Crowder but you ignore the success of the Suns. Why do you think the Suns are so succesful? Because they actively try to get rid of players that are conducive to winning? This season Jae Crowder is shooting 34.8% from 3. Rui is shooting 52.2% from 3. And going back to the start of his playoffs last year he's shooting 54% from 3. Most great 3-point shooters in this league, excluding stars, are absolute liabilities defensively. Even what we call "3 and D" isn't really 3. Robert Covington shoots 34% from 3. Saddiq Bey shoots 34.4% from 3. OG Anunoby shoots 34.4% from 3.

Any player that can make 3's and is not a complete liability defensively, is very conducive to winning. To just trade him is short-sighted and shows that we aren't trying to build a contender. The thing to do now with Rui is put him in the starting lineup, significantly increase his 3-point attempts and also try to continue his development as a player. Good teams don't trade players like Rui Hachimura unless they are getting a star back in return. Trading him for Jalen Suggs would be a disaster.

With all the criticism of Hachimura on this thread, the reality is that any contender would want him. Good teams do their best to stockpile players like him. Look at the Suns. Cam Johnson. Jae Crowder. Mikal Bridges. Landry Shamet. But the Wizards, we find one guy who can do both and the first thing we think about doing is trading him.

The problem is that his "D" in the 3&D equation isn't really very good. He's a solid on-ball defender, and he is switchable, but his help defense and defensive rebounding are definitely below average. He may be a better shooter than Crowder (in a small sample size) but Crowder is still a much more aware defender who knows how to help and recover. And Rui isn't in the same ball park defensively as OG Anunoby.

I'm not hating. I agree with you that Rui has value because he can shoot and he doesn't kill you defensively. He's certainly not a bust or anything. I'm just saying that value has its limits, and his limit is that of a role player. I'm not really sure Rui is going to get all that much better from here because guys don't typically improve on basketball instincts and motor all that much, and that is where Rui is weak. A year from now, Rui will sign a market value deal which will render him a marginal asset. If he can be traded before then for someone with the upside to be a better asset on a cost/production basis, it should be considered - particularly since we already have Avdija and Kuzma to man his position.

[nate33]

Wizards fans are obsessed with finding perfect players. My post about all the things Hachimura could improve was sarcasm. Yes, if he improved all those things we would probably have an all-star on our hands. Not every player needs to be an all-star. A player doesn't have to be good at everything to have value. You take what a player does well and you craft a role that is suited to it. But with Wizards fans that are obsessed about turning every player we draft into a star, we ignore what a player does well and how that could fit into crafting a winning team and focus on what a player doesn't do. Unless we are talking about trading for a star Rui should be untouchable.

This team hasn't won 50 games in 40 years and they haven't even finish with a .500 record in 4 years. You are damn right we are obsessed with finding a star because all of these half-decent role players aren't getting us anywhere.

[WallToWall]

If Rui is to be the 3 pt specialist, then he needs to take many more 3 pt shots. I wish I could generate a stat that shows 3pt shot per touches. Maybe that would be telling.
When I mentioned that Rui needs to be at least average at one or more attributes, it wasn’t to imply that he would become a superstar or that I am expecting him to be a superstar, if he were to do that. I want him to be an asset for us, and even a 6th man is an asset. To be a valuable 6th man, he will need to do at least one more thing, other than 3pt shooting, at an average level.
Right at this moment, Rui is a serviceable player. That is not a bad return for where he was picked in the draft.

[Dark Faze]

30 game sample size of unreasonably high shooting (that is certain to come down to earth, just a matter of how much), and it has only resulted in a TS of .565.

Meanwhile, lowest rebounding rate of his career, highest turnover rate, lowest free throw rate and percentage.

*shrug* There's nothing to be overly excited about here. I am hopeful that he can improve, but personally I don't love him as a player, nor his potential.

[payitforward]

Rui is prime's favorite player it seems -- everyone gets to have a favorite, so no problem.

Again, if a guy improves at something, that makes you think "maybe he can improve at some other stuff too." If Rui gets a lot better at a bunch of other things than shooting the 3 (like, for example, shooting the 2! ), that's great. Until he does... well, he's prime's favorite.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

He should also improve his ball-handling, playmaking, mid-range shooting, low-post scoring, on-ball defense, basketball-iq.

This is my issue. I've been a Rui fan from the get go and LOVE seeing his shot fall, but man he appears really slow with a poor handle along with a very cavalier demeanor.
He doesnt get by anyone like he did last year and doesnt have the array of counters that Kuz has.

Again, the only way this team can put together a contender (Other than Beal bouncing back and KP staying healthy) is Deni breaking out and trading either Rui or Kuz.

Yeah, it's looking more and more like Rui is going to be less of a primary scorer, and more of a 3&D role player. That's still useful. Every team can use a guy who can defend 3 through 5 while hitting catch-and-shoot 3's. But that's more like the 5th or 6th best guy in a rotation, not a top 4 guy. Basically, he could be the next Jae Crowder.

The problem is, a guy like Jae Crowder is typically worth the MLE or less, which means nearly every team in the league will have the ability to go after him in free agency and prevent us from resigning him to a team friendly contract. With that the case, we ought to consider trading him this offseason instead of letting him walk for nothing in 2023. I'd be curious to see what deals are out there this summer if Rui is coming off a 40-game season with him shooting north of 45% from 3-point range. I'd love to pick up a mid 1st round pick or an undeveloped talent like Jalen Suggs who has more years left on his rookie deal.

If Rui was a hyper active defender and decision maker on defense like Avdija, he'd be worth a lot more. I'd love for him to become a sharp-shooting version of Aaron Gordon, but I'm losing hope that he has the innate basketball IQ to ever get there.

Jalen Smith is going to be better than Rui, if he already isn't.

[payitforward]

We lost tonight, so obviously no player of the game. All the same, have to mention the outstanding game Rui had. 19 points on 10 fgas & 2 ftas. Better rebounding than he's shown this year too. Great to see it!

[Shoe]

Ru3 Hachimura

[prime1time]

A couple months ago people were saying that he might never play again. Now he’s having a career high per and playing with supreme confidence. It’s time to free Rui.

Read on Twitter

?s=21
Look at how early he calls for the ball. The difference between Rui as a rookie and Rui now is night and day.

[smoothSeph]

The player we saw last night I’d hate to let go. He just has to have that aggressive mentality consistently.

[NatP4]

58.4% TS. Attempting 4.3 3s per36. Rui has turned himself into a good player.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The player we saw last night I’d hate to let go. He just has to have that aggressive mentality consistently.

I agree. He's maybe best a sixth man but dude has game, even if one dimension is all he's showing.

I'm all for advantageous trades but I'm not for trading just to get rid of a player.

[prime1time]

Wizards fans are obsessed with finding perfect players. My post about all the things Hachimura could improve was sarcasm. Yes, if he improved all those things we would probably have an all-star on our hands. Not every player needs to be an all-star. A player doesn't have to be good at everything to have value. You take what a player does well and you craft a role that is suited to it. But with Wizards fans that are obsessed about turning every player we draft into a star, we ignore what a player does well and how that could fit into crafting a winning team and focus on what a player doesn't do. Unless we are talking about trading for a star Rui should be untouchable.

This team hasn't won 50 games in 40 years and they haven't even finish with a .500 record in 4 years. You are damn right we are obsessed with finding a star because all of these half-decent role players aren't getting us anywhere.

So your grand plan is to hold our rookie draft picks and role players to unrealistic expectations? Then when they fall short of these expectations move on from them. If it's any consolation, it looks like you'll get your way. After watching the game last night the Wizards have decided to move on from Hachimura. They've basically turned him into Bertans. I look forward to him joining a team that will actually give him a genuine opportunity. On a team with a star, Rui will be an excellent player. On a team like the Wizards, all Rui can be is a scapegoat. I look forward to you scapegoating Avdija next year and Kispert the year after that.

We are all frustrated, but when your frustration has a negative impact you should take a stepback and become introspective. It is your mentality that leaves the Wizards mired in mediocrity. It's why we moved on from Troy Brown Jr. way to early. Why Kelly Oubre has been gone for years and is just entering his prime. Why Otto Porter Jr. was overpaid and ultimately traded for nothing. And it will ultimately be why Hachimura and Avdija were doomed even before they stepped foot in DC. Unless Rui became Kawhi incarnate fans like you would have rejected him. Who cares if he could help the team in an effective way. How much better will Deni Avdija have to be, to meet your lofty standards?

The funniest thing of all is that you actually think you are justified in your mentality. When it is your mentality that fuels our ineptitude. How many stars did the good Hawks teams of the mid 2010s have? Yet they won over 50 games. How many stars did the Grizzlies of the early 2010s have? Yet they won 50+ games in 2013. NBA history is littered with teams that have won over 50 games that didn't have a star. Yet the Wizards haven't had that happen once in 50 years. How can something that hasn't happened for that long be the fault of one player drafted 3 years ago? To be honest, I don't even know why you're frustrated. You're getting precisely what you want. Ineptitude, until we draft a potential top 15 player of all time.

[nate33]

So your grand plan is to hold our rookie draft picks and role players to unrealistic expectations? Then when they fall short of these expectations move on from them. If it's any consolation, it looks like you'll get your way.

Yes. That's what good teams do. They assess their draft pick over the first 3 years and decide whether they can envision that guy as a plus player on the next contract or not. If they think the guy is nothing better than an MLE level player, they cut bait and move on. If they can get a little value for him before letting him go, all the better. Consider the top 25 picks from the 2017 draft:

1 PHI Markelle Fultz - Wasn't working out in Philly - Traded for Tyrese Maxey. Resigned by ORL at $17M/yr
2 LAL Lonzo Ball - Traded for Anthony Davis. Ultimately was not resigned by New Orleans.
3 BOS Jayson Tatum - Obvious star. Retained and signed to max.
4 PHO Josh Jackson - Phoenix unloaded him in his 3rd season for a 2nd. Now a journeyman on his 3rd team.
5 SAC De'Aaron Fox - Looked like a possible star. Resigned to a max and is now overpaid
6 ORL Jonathan Isaac - Looked like a quality starter. Resigned to a $17M/yr deal but is always hurt.
7 MIN Lauri Markkanen - Chicago opted not to retain. Signed with Cleveland for $17M/yr. Decent player.
8 NYK Frank Ntilikina - NY did not retain. Signed with Dallas for vet minimum. Not in rotation.
9 DAL Dennis Smith Jr. - NY did not retain. Waived twice. A bust.
10 SAC Zach Collins - Portland did not retain. Signed by SA for $7M/yr. Played 173 minutes so far.
11 CHO Malik Monk - Charlotte did not retain. Signed by Lakers for vet minimum. Useful bench player.
12 DET Luke Kennard - Traded for Saddiq Bey in his 3rd season. Resigned by LAC at $14M/yr to come off bench.
13 DEN Donovan Mitchell - Obvious star. Retained and signed to max.
14 MIA Bam Adebayo - Obvious star. Retained and signed to max.
15 POR Justin Jackson - Traded twice and waived. Now on 10-day contract
16 CHI Justin Patton - Traded twice and waived. Now on 10-day contract
17 MIL D.J. Wilson - 3 lousy years in Milwaukee, then traded for PJ Tucker. Then waived.
18 IND T.J. Leaf - a bust.
19 ATL John Collins - Borderline star. Retained by Atlanta at $25M a year but is now being shopped
20 POR Harry Giles - A bust. Out of the league
21 OKC Terrance Ferguson - A bust. Out of the league
22 BRK Jarrett Allen - Awesome player for Brooklyn. Traded for James Harden. Resigned by CLE at $20M/yr
23 TOR OG Anunoby - Quality starter for Toronto. Resigned at $17M a year. Good value.
24 UTA Tyler Lydon - A bust. Out of league.
25 ORL Anžejs Pasečņiks - A bust. Out of the league.

Of those 25 players, only 7, Tatum, Fox, Isaac, Mitchell, Adebayo, J.Collins, and Anunoby, were retained by the team that drafted them. All of them were better than Rui is now. Tatum, Mitchell and Adebayo were superstars and no-brainers to resign at max contracts. Anunoby was a value signing. Fox, Isaac and J.Collins are useful players but probably overpaid.

There are 6 other rotation-caliber players from that group: Fultz, Ball, Markkanen, Monk, Kennard, Allen. The rest are busts or journeymen. Of those rotation-caliber players, Allen and Ball are clearly better than Rui and are therefore not really a comparison for Rui. And Monk was resigned for the vet-minimum which isn't really a risk for the signer so he is not a comparison either.

I'd say the players from that draft class that probably resemble Rui's situation are Markkanen, Kennard, and Fultz. All 3 demonstrated that they were legit NBA players, but it was far from certain whether they projected to be quality starters or not. Markkanen and Fultz were signed for $17M. Kennard, $15M. Are any of those teams particularly happy with those signings? I doubt it.

The point is, if the player isn't clearly a starting-caliber player by the end of his rookie deal, it's not wise to resign him to significant money and then hope and pray.

You can do the same analysis from the 2016 draft class. Guys that weren't obvious stars or clear starters (Simmons, Ingram, Brown, Murray, Sabonis, Poeltl) ended up being disappointing on their second contract (Hield, Prince, LeVert, Beasley).

We are all frustrated, but when your frustration has a negative impact you should take a stepback and become introspective. It is your mentality that leaves the Wizards mired in mediocrity. It's why we moved on from Troy Brown Jr. way to early. Why Kelly Oubre has been gone for years and is just entering his prime. Why Otto Porter Jr. was overpaid and ultimately traded for nothing.

These examples only prove my point, not yours.

We moved on from Troy Brown and it was the right move. The guy hasn't done anything. Instead, we turned him into a better player. Otto Porter was resigned, but for too much money, which ended up being a mistake. It created a luxtax problem that ultimately resulted in us dumping Oubre and then Porter himself. Fortunately, dumping Porter turned out to be a good move because injuries sapped his ability. I was upset that we dumped Oubre because of the Porter mismanagement, but even that turned out to be not such a problem. Oubre has bounced around as a free agent since. The real problem was that we dumped Oubre under duress. If we could have turned him into a future 1st, it would have been a good move.

[doclinkin]

So your grand plan is to hold our rookie draft picks and role players to unrealistic expectations? Then when they fall short of these expectations move on from them. If it's any consolation, it looks like you'll get your way.

Yes. That's what good teams do. They assess their draft pick over the first 3 years and decide whether they can envision that guy as a plus player on the next contract or not. If they think the guy is nothing better than an MLE level player, they cut bait and move on. If they can get a little value for him before letting him go, all the better.

I'm curious which players in the NBA have shown their value after their first contract or their rookie extension contract after their draft team let them go. And if there are any identifiable markers in common or trends that can be teased out among these players. Seems to me like there could be value here to exploit if a team were good at it. This is the sort of thing we will have to be good at if we are going to be capped out with beta-stars.

Tommy actually has proven decent at this. Thomas Bryant and even Mo Wagner showed more value here than they did for the team that drafted them. Daniel Gafford. Ok inexplicably we let Garrison Matthews go, to see him grow on another team. But I'd say Kuzma is being paid appropriately to his performance, where previously he was underperforming.

I tend to look for young talent playing on win-now teams. Or at players stuck behind all-stars. Then look for trends of improvement, especially in FT shooting and assist numbers. And players who defensively rebound well for their position. Most young players foul too much, that improves as they get comfort, but FT%'s are a pure clean example of a skill that only improves with repetition. Players who trend upwards here tend to be gym rats who love the game. Nobody cheers for you for hitting a free throw in an empty gym. These players often improve in their 3FG% as well. Defensive rebounds (relative to position, if they are a tweener you have to compare them vs the largest position they play.) are one of the BBIQ measurements that are a generally good barometer for whether a player knows what they are doing out there, if they trend upwards in this category then they are getting comfortable out there.

I'll have to do a pass on the all-stars and see if there are players behind them who are overlooked, especially on a capped out team with win-now aspirations.

[nate33]

So your grand plan is to hold our rookie draft picks and role players to unrealistic expectations? Then when they fall short of these expectations move on from them. If it's any consolation, it looks like you'll get your way.

Yes. That's what good teams do. They assess their draft pick over the first 3 years and decide whether they can envision that guy as a plus player on the next contract or not. If they think the guy is nothing better than an MLE level player, they cut bait and move on. If they can get a little value for him before letting him go, all the better.

I'm curious which players in the NBA have shown their value after their first contract or their rookie extension contract after their draft team let them go. And if there are any identifiable markers in common or trends that can be teased out among these players. Seems to me like there could be value here to exploit if a team were good at it. This is the sort of thing we will have to be good at if we are going to be capped out with beta-stars.

Tommy actually has proven decent at this. Thomas Bryant and even Mo Wagner showed more value here than they did for the team that drafted them. Daniel Gafford. Ok inexplicably we let Garrison Matthews go, to see him grow on another team. But I'd say Kuzma is being paid appropriately to his performance, where previously he was underperforming.

I tend to look for young talent playing on win-now teams. Or at players stuck behind all-stars. Then look for trends of improvement, especially in FT shooting and assist numbers. And players who defensively rebound well for their position. Most young players foul too much, that improves as they get comfort, but FT%'s are a pure clean example of a skill that only improves with repetition. Players who trend upwards here tend to be gym rats who love the game. Nobody cheers for you for hitting a free throw in an empty gym. These players often improve in their 3FG% as well. Defensive rebounds (relative to position, if they are a tweener you have to compare them vs the largest position they play.) are one of the BBIQ measurements that are a generally good barometer for whether a player knows what they are doing out there, if they trend upwards in this category then they are getting comfortable out there.

I'll have to do a pass on the all-stars and see if there are players behind them who are overlooked, especially on a capped out team with win-now aspirations.

I'd say that PG's often bloom late. Nash and Billups are obvious examples. But so are guys like VanVleet, Lowry, Murray, and Dragic. That bodes well since we need a PG. Could a guy like Jalen Suggs be the next Dejounte Murray or Rajon Rondo?

[doclinkin]

Or G-League players. Daishen Nix? Or even Joel Ayayi?

[Ruzious]

Yes. That's what good teams do. They assess their draft pick over the first 3 years and decide whether they can envision that guy as a plus player on the next contract or not. If they think the guy is nothing better than an MLE level player, they cut bait and move on. If they can get a little value for him before letting him go, all the better.

I'm curious which players in the NBA have shown their value after their first contract or their rookie extension contract after their draft team let them go. And if there are any identifiable markers in common or trends that can be teased out among these players. Seems to me like there could be value here to exploit if a team were good at it. This is the sort of thing we will have to be good at if we are going to be capped out with beta-stars.

Tommy actually has proven decent at this. Thomas Bryant and even Mo Wagner showed more value here than they did for the team that drafted them. Daniel Gafford. Ok inexplicably we let Garrison Matthews go, to see him grow on another team. But I'd say Kuzma is being paid appropriately to his performance, where previously he was underperforming.

I tend to look for young talent playing on win-now teams. Or at players stuck behind all-stars. Then look for trends of improvement, especially in FT shooting and assist numbers. And players who defensively rebound well for their position. Most young players foul too much, that improves as they get comfort, but FT%'s are a pure clean example of a skill that only improves with repetition. Players who trend upwards here tend to be gym rats who love the game. Nobody cheers for you for hitting a free throw in an empty gym. These players often improve in their 3FG% as well. Defensive rebounds (relative to position, if they are a tweener you have to compare them vs the largest position they play.) are one of the BBIQ measurements that are a generally good barometer for whether a player knows what they are doing out there, if they trend upwards in this category then they are getting comfortable out there.

I'll have to do a pass on the all-stars and see if there are players behind them who are overlooked, especially on a capped out team with win-now aspirations.

I'd say that PG's often bloom late. Nash and Billups are obvious examples. But so are guys like VanVleet, Lowry, Murray, and Dragic. That bodes well since we need a PG. Could a guy like Jalen Suggs be the next Dejounte Murray or Rajon Rondo?

Agreed, and I think he could very well be, but he's such a high profile player for Orlando that I don't see him being shopped or traded without getting a huge haul.