Presti's Tree Reaches DC: The Official Will Dawkins Thread

[gambitx777]

The real tell of how this front office will be remembered and seen and how long they will stay in power will come in the upcoming contract negotiations with the young guys. None of them right now are max players. Even if they take a jump. If they over pay we know our answer. If they are able to negotiate terms and outs and money and stuff to get team friendly or neutral deals. That will be the tell on if they can be successful long term or not.

Sent from my SM-S926U1 using RealGM mobile app

[payitforward]

Yeah, well if he'd taken Brandon Clarke, Kelden Johnson & Cody Martin in '19, Haliburton, Bane & tre Jones in '20, Trey Murphy & Herb Jones in '21, & Tari Eason in '22... we'd have been contending for a chip in '23-4 rather than tearing down to rebuild....

[TheBlackCzar]

Yeah, well if he'd taken Brandon Clarke, Kelden Johnson & Cody Martin in '19, Haliburton, Bane & tre Jones in '20, Trey Murphy & Herb Jones in '21, & Tari Eason in '22... we'd have been contending for a chip in '23-4 rather than tearing down to rebuild....

I don't that team would be competing for a chip...
They would win games, but Halli and Bane as your top 2 is not a championship squad...
Memphis with Bane and Ja with JJJ wasn't a contender, so this even lesser team isn't contending either......

I like how we're going now better than that team....
This team you listed isn't good enough offensively.....

[TGW]

Yeah, well if he'd taken Brandon Clarke, Kelden Johnson & Cody Martin in '19, Haliburton, Bane & tre Jones in '20, Trey Murphy & Herb Jones in '21, & Tari Eason in '22... we'd have been contending for a chip in '23-4 rather than tearing down to rebuild....

That's definitely not a championship calibre team.

[nate33]

If we had drafted JDub instead of Johnny Davis in 2022, then drafted Lively in 2023 (since we'd be picking a bit later and Coulibaly would have been off the board), then kept Deni, we would have had an incredible young front court going into the 2024 draft.

In 2024, we would have had our pick (probably about #12 instead of #2) and the #26 pick at our disposal. Probably still would have gone with Carrington and Kyshawn. I'd then have traded our 2026 OKC pick and something a little extra (JC?) to get back our pick owed to NY (after all, that pick would be looking like the #17 pick or so, so NY could be convinced to part with it). That keeps our 2026 Phoenix pick swap in play.

We could end the tanking strategy immediately and start trying to win right now with:

PG McCollum/Bub
SG Middleton/Kispert
SF JDub/Whitmore
PF Deni/Kyshawn
C Lively/Bagley/Vukcevic

Plus whomever we drafted this year (with presumably a much later pick from us and the Memphis pick), while still having a likely 2026 lotto pick from Phoenix on the way, and max cap room next year.

[payitforward]

Wow, nate -- well done!

[TheBlackCzar]

If we had drafted JDub instead of Johnny Davis in 2022, then drafted Lively in 2023 (since we'd be picking a bit later and Coulibaly would have been off the board), then kept Deni, we would have had an incredible young front court going into the 2024 draft.

In 2024, we would have had our pick (probably about #12 instead of #2) and the #26 pick at our disposal. Probably still would have gone with Carrington and Kyshawn. I'd then have traded our 2026 OKC pick and something a little extra (JC?) to get back our pick owed to NY (after all, that pick would be looking like the #17 pick or so, so NY could be convinced to part with it). That keeps out 2026 Phoenix pick swap in play.

We could end the tanking strategy immediately and start trying to win right now with:

PG McCollum/Bub
SG Middleton/Kispert
SF JDub/Whitmore
PF Deni/Kyshawn
C Lively/Bagley/Vukcevic

While still having a likely 2026 lotto pick from Phoenix on the way, and max cap room.

This team would still be lacking a #1, and if we made that initial pick of JDubb, I doubt we trade for Whitmore....
Also since the rules about trading for our pick rights back from NYK would nullify the swapability with the Suns....
So in this scenario we won't be bad enough to truly benefit from 24-26 drafts provided our pick doesn't convey.......
We wouldn't have Tre, Bilal, Alex or Bub as wo that trade we probably don't pick Bub, so in reality here's how our team would look,

PG McCollum, AJ
SG Middleton, Kispert
SF JDub, JChamp
PF Deni, Kyshawn (and I'm being generous as we also traded up for him with picks we might not have had from the Deni trade)
C Lively, Bagley, Vuk

Nah I like what we have better....

PG Bub, AJ
SG McCollum, Tre, Kispert
SF Bilal, Middleton, Whitmore,
PF Ky, JChamp
C Sarr, Bagley, Vuk.....

We also have the pick swap still in play with Phoenix, while scenario 1 doesn't.......
Pick swap with Milwaukee (dunno details around it)
We still have an extra 1st from the Deni trade, plus multiple 2nds....
Not saying we couldn't have gotten 2nds but doubt we'd have gotten more 1sts than we did...

I think I'd rather have the youngings we have over what we could've had....

[payitforward]

Yeah, well if he'd taken Brandon Clarke, Kelden Johnson & Cody Martin in '19, Haliburton, Bane & tre Jones in '20, Trey Murphy & Herb Jones in '21, & Tari Eason in '22... we'd have been contending for a chip in '23-4 rather than tearing down to rebuild....

That's definitely not a championship calibre team.

It's a list of 9 draft picks over 4 drafts... not a total roster.

OTOH, I'm used to fans having little idea of who affects wins, how they do it, & why it works.

Every one of those guys contributes a ton of wins to his team's total.

[9 and 20]

We should have traded for Jokic.

In all honesty, I'm a little concerned with Dawkins' infatuation with Russian Anthony Gill.

[tontoz]

Wizards got some love at the beginning of the Zach Lowe podcast for their "under the radar" moves. Zach also referenced that classic tweet from Leonsis announcing " the new big 3".

https://open.spotify.com/episode/3d9av0kKfcnCfBUp0V9s6q?si=bJzcBmdVRR-3UcBCuWVNBA

[leswizards]

I’m not trying to start an argument. I am just trying to explain why I doubt this theory that 19 year olds will improve so substantially that they merit being drafted and held onto. These are a few observations on evaluating statistical analysis and forecasting.

First, we are talking about an incredibly small sample size, which almost certainly means a huge standard deviation. Attempting to draw strong definitive conclusions from a small sample size with a huge standard deviation is statistically not sound.

The forecasting is comparing apples and oranges in 2 ways. First, except for a single hardship case, 19 years old weren’t drafted in the nba, then only can’t miss 19 year old were drafted, then 19 and plausibly the next Kobe started getting drafted, to today where all prospects who are 19 get extra bonus points in the drafting evaluation. Second, some 19 year olds have not lasted very long in the NBA. It may be that some of the 19 year olds being drafted currently are more comparable to those who didn’t make it (and hence data is not available on their progression) than to those who actually succeeded.

Finally, some of this data is proprietary stuff, which means you completely have to place your faith that someone else knows what they are doing and that they have done things correctly. All these proprietary people are very smart and very credentialed, so I understand trusting them, but it doesn’t rule out the possibility that they are mistaken.

[leswizards]

Then again, maybe this front office’s strategy is to grab 15 19 year olds and hope they hit on at least a third of them. Which plausibly could work, but only if they don’t invest big money in those they miss on. Which is why next offseason is so important. It will be their first opportunity to decide if they want to invest big money in Bilal and/or Cam.

[payitforward]

These are smart & relevant posts, leswiz -- thanks!

You are certainly correct that there's no reliable way to project the progress of a particular, small group of prospect drafted at 19 & who are none of them over 21. Now... if the group is a large one, no doubt some will succeed, but you still won't know which ones!

There are ways to shorten the odds of course. Determine the % of past successes, & predict slightly less than that % -- that'll usually work. But, it doesn't answer a particular question like, "how good will Bub Carrington be?"

OTOH, that's not a problem particular to Bub. Or to our group kids. Or even to the determination of Will Dawkins' skill! To put that same point in a way that's easier to grasp: it was obvious that Cooper Flagg was the right guy to pick at #1 in this year's draft. But being picked first won't help him succeed, & if he doesn't succeed it won't mean he wasn't the right pick at #1.

It's not just that no one knows in advance who is going to max out his development path. It's that no one CAN know.

[DCZards]

This article appeared today in The Athletic. It addresses some of the questions/issues raised by a lot of Zards fans.

These are excerpts

The Washington Wizards are stockpiling wings — but what’s the plan?

By Josh Robbins, The Athletic

It’s a question about the 2025-26 Washington Wizards that comes up again and again: Why does the team have so many wings?

The answer is interesting — and it cuts to the heart of the Wizards’ roster-construction strategy but also to roster construction in the modern NBA.

QUESTION FROM FAN: While we understand that they can’t/shouldn’t try to win this year, you also can’t develop all these wings at the same time. They already had to ship out Colby Jones for pure roster-spot availability reasons, but how in the heck can these guys all develop at the same time if they all play the same position? They certainly can’t all develop on the defensive end, where some of them will be playing out of position just to get minutes. And we all know that five minutes into the season, we will all be complaining about a lack of defense and rebounding. –Malcolm H.

I agree that, against the backdrop of traditional NBA roster construction, the Wizards are super-heavy on wings, light on traditional bigs and thin on traditional point guards.

But at this stage, positional roster imbalance is not the Wizards’ primary concern, or perhaps even their secondary concern. They are attempting to bring as many high-upside players as possible onto their roster — through the draft, through trades, through signings — and do their best to develop those players into upper-level NBA players. Think of it as casting a wide net in an effort to see who, eventually, will stand out.

The questions you’ve posed here are more about development, specifically whether the seeming overabundance of wings will inhibit those wings’ long-term improvement. The point about the difficulty of the wings developing on defense is well-taken if we assume that some of the Wizards’ wings will defend opponents who are either much faster and more agile or much larger and stronger.

My conclusion is that all of us — me included — need to acknowledge that the NBA game has changed, and continues to change. Our traditional notions of positional roles don’t apply as much as they once did. Because of the prevalence of the 3-point shot and because so many teams play fast on offense, defenders now have to cover more ground than ever before. It’s now common for players we don’t consider “point guards” to initiate offenses, and it’s now rare for centers on offense to play with their backs to the basket.

It’s a league increasingly populated by versatile players in the 6-foot-4 to 6-foot-9 range. The distinctions among what shooting guards, small forwards and power forwards are expected to do are murkier than ever before, particularly within switch-oriented defensive schemes.

“The game of basketball is so fluid, and positionally things are changing,” Dawkins told me a few days after this year’s draft.

“And unlike football, where you’re drafting for one position on one side of the field, you have to play both ends of the floor in basketball. So sometimes you’re playing one position on offense but you’re playing a different type of position on defense, and there’s cross-matches and mismatches. So the way the game is going, with the flexibility, the type of players we’re drafting gives Coach (Brian) Keefe options. So we’re just going to continue to find people who fit our attributes and bring them into our building.”

Coulibaly and George are quintessential examples of this. With Coulibaly listed as 6-8 and George listed as 6-7, we’d traditionally consider them as threes. But last season, the Wizards often deployed Coulibaly and George defensively to guard opponents’ top offensive initiators — a critical defensive role that, years ago, probably wouldn’t have gone to 6-foot-8 or 6-foot-7 players.

I think Wizards officials would portray having so many wings as an advantage for the players’ development, citing how those players will have to compete against each other for playing time. There’s some truth to that. Even with three-wing lineups, there will be only a finite number of minutes to go around.

There’s no question in my mind that, when healthy, and as long as they remain bought-in to the team concept, the highest-upside young players — Coulibaly, George, Tre Johnson and Whitmore — will get their minutes.

[doclinkin]

Then again, maybe this front office’s strategy is to grab 15 19 year olds and hope they hit on at least a third of them. Which plausibly could work, but only if they don’t invest big money in those they miss on. Which is why next offseason is so important. It will be their first opportunity to decide if they want to invest big money in Bilal and/or Cam.

Some part of this plan was driven by the necessity to lose over these early years. No rebuilding team can afford to miss a lottery pick. Wembanyama and Flagg were top prizes that we barely missed landing. Next year’s draft has 2-3 Tier One players (if no Tier Zero types, obvious HOFers).

So the trick lies in picking talent that may become stars, but will still take extra time to develop. You don’t want a senior like Jaime Jaquez who will immediately put up good box score numbers but may have limited growth over his first contract.

I think they have a formula of the sort of player they believe will develop and succeed in the league. That they think they can ID players who are highly talented but undervalued by others. Not yet developed, but with the raw tools to grow into excellent players.

The formula looks for:

Late bloomers who were skill position players (point guards) but who have grown to wing and forward size.

Or better yet players whose medical exams show their growth plates are still open. Still growing. (Bilal Bub and George).

Positional size. Length and switchability. Able to guard multiple positions.

Basketball IQ. Passing aptitude and teamwork. Situational reads and understanding.

Competitiveness and work ethic. So that whatever they can’t yet do, they may work to develop.

Youth but productiveness. Young players with advanced games. Because Young players do get better. If you look at college freshman vs seniors you can see stark differences in a few short years.

Just a fact: people grow up. Younger players are risky because their ability to improve is not yet tested. If you’re drafting a junior you can see if that player worked in their weaknesses between seasons. A kid one year out of high school can’t show that in box score stats. But teenagers grow into adults. So if they re good already, that good has a better chance to grow.

In contrast to your premise I think they are picking players who are not yet coveted by every other team in the league. Undervalued players they think will rise to the top of their class over time.

Bub was late lotto. George late first round. Bilal came on strong but was not mocked top 3. Top 5. Yet many analysts project him to be one of the highest potential players in his draft. Steals.

By picking them young they are investing heavily in their ability to teach them. Grow them. They believe in their system. Many young players fail because the team doesn’t have time to teach fundamentals. Give them minutes. Let them play through their mistakes. Encourage them to first double down on what they do well, then expand their skills.

That takes time. It is a fact that most players IF they break out, they show signs their 3rd year in the league. Put it together in year 4. Players who are younger take longer. Stats tend to show that corresponds with age 23, 24, 25. Then reach prime at age 26.

Bit yes. Given that the average length of an NBA career is 4.8 years. Many flame out. Never reach prime. One contract then move on.

This team is doing it differently. We have a dozen + players on rookie contracts. Wr are adding 2-3 extra draft picks a year for the next 7 years. We are investing so heavily in youth it’s like NBA Academy. Hogwarts for NBA players. Or like the pro club teams of Europe that pump out players like Luka and Jokic. Guys who come to the league with complete games. We are building a club system for our future team.

And hints are it’s working.

Our GoGo team seems to refurbish other teams castoffs.

Deni broke out under their encouragement.

Bilal has had one offseason. He started hot then teams learned to guard him.

My feeling is: they are clearly investing in youth and development, there’s no point rushing to judge if it can work without giving it time. That’s the point I don’t understand. The team has sucked for so long, in part because we never truly rebuilt. Now we have a front office with an actual plan, why not give it time to succeed.

[leswizards]

Are any of Bub, Bilal, Sarr, or George significantly better than Cam?

I don’t think so. The reason I pose this question is the Wizards just acquired Cam for a second round pick in next year’s draft that will probably be some where between the 31st pick and the 45th pick and a second round pick in the 2029 draft.

If Cam has the roughly same value as those players, this front office has drafted 4 first rounders (3 lottery picks) that now have the roughly equivalent value of 4 second rounders in next year’s draft (picks being somewhere between 31 and 45), and 4 second round picks in 2029.

Can these players improve? Absolutely. But, the probability and the possibility of their improvement should have already been factored into how other NBA teams value those players.

To me, this shows how poorly this front office has drafted.

Hopefully, I am wrong.

[nate33]

Are any of Bub, Bilal, Sarr, or George significantly better than Cam?

I don’t think so. The reason I pose this question is the Wizards just acquired Cam for a second round pick in next year’s draft that will probably be some where between the 31st pick and the 45th pick and a second round pick in the 2029 draft.

If Cam has the roughly same value as those players, this front office has drafted 4 first rounders (3 lottery picks) that now have the roughly equivalent value of 4 second rounders in next year’s draft (picks being somewhere between 31 and 45), and 4 second round picks in 2029.

Can these players improve? Absolutely. But, the probability and the possibility of their improvement should have already been factored into how other NBA teams value those players.

To me, this shows how poorly this front office has drafted.

Hopefully, I am wrong.

You are wrong because you are not factoring age and experience.

I think a lot of teams would trade a FRP for Bub, George or Sarr. Cam's value dropped because he was entering his 3rd season whereas those other guys are entering their second season after a rookie debut where all 3 showed flashes of being quality role players and perhaps a bit more.

The only player with whom your argument may apply is Bilal, because he is also entering his 3rd season. But I think teams would definitely value Bilal over Cam because he has already demonstrated the aptitude to blend into a team system on both ends of the floor. Bilal will be a quality starter if he only translates his FT shooting ability to the 3-point line. He doesn't need to do anything else and he'll be the next Herb Jones. And his ceiling is far higher than that. Cam arguably still has a higher upside, but there is also a very real possibility that he can't blend into a team system in a positive way because of his tunnel vision and terrible playmaking. And that would make him merely a replaceable bench scorer.

[doclinkin]

Are any of Bub, Bilal, Sarr, or George significantly better than Cam?

I don’t think so. The reason I pose this question is the Wizards just acquired Cam for a second round pick in next year’s draft that will probably be some where between the 31st pick and the 45th pick and a second round pick in the 2029 draft.

If Cam has the roughly same value as those players, this front office has drafted 4 first rounders (3 lottery picks) that now have the roughly equivalent value of 4 second rounders in next year’s draft (picks being somewhere between 31 and 45), and 4 second round picks in 2029.

Can these players improve? Absolutely. But, the probability and the possibility of their improvement should have already been factored into how other NBA teams value those players.

To me, this shows how poorly this front office has drafted.

Hopefully, I am wrong.

You are wrong because you are not factoring age and experience.

I think a lot of teams would trade a FRP for Bub, George or Sarr. Cam's value dropped because he was entering his 3rd season whereas those other guys are entering their second season after a rookie debut where all 3 showed flashes of being quality role players and perhaps a bit more.

The only player with whom your argument may apply is Bilal, because he is also entering his 3rd season. But I think teams would definitely value Bilal over Cam because he has already demonstrated the aptitude to blend into a team system on both ends of the floor. Bilal will be a quality starter if he only translates his FT shooting ability to the 3-point line. He doesn't need to do anything else and he'll be the next Herb Jones. And his ceiling is far higher than that. Cam arguably still has a higher upside, but there is also a very real possibility that he can't blend into a team system in a positive way because of his tunnel vision and terrible playmaking. And that would make him merely a replaceable bench scorer.

Tough to rule out Cam developing either given that he also started the league as a teen and is only a week older than Bilal. He didn’t have the same free opportunities for minutes on the Rockets as Bilal does here.

Houston did not have patience for him to develop since they had players producing in the same spot and a win-now focus. They’re right that he needed to put more energy on defense. Signs showed he was turning that around but was also trying to gun for stats to earn PT. Could he play better here? It’s common that young players hit a wall on one team and don’t learn the lessons that stymied them until they are shunted away. Easier to dedicate yourself yo those lessons when you aren’t on the spot.

I expect a mini breakout from Cam given the Wizards emphasis on development and letting players work through their mistakes in game. We saw Deni surge in confidence when he was no longer looking over his shoulder and encouraged to play up his strengths. Whatever Cams value was to the Rockets, I think he will surpass for the Wizards. It’s a different situation. Frankly we need his scoring in ways that Houston didn’t.

[DCZards]

Are any of Bub, Bilal, Sarr, or George significantly better than Cam?

I don’t think so. The reason I pose this question is the Wizards just acquired Cam for a second round pick in next year’s draft that will probably be some where between the 31st pick and the 45th pick and a second round pick in the 2029 draft.

If Cam has the roughly same value as those players, this front office has drafted 4 first rounders (3 lottery picks) that now have the roughly equivalent value of 4 second rounders in next year’s draft (picks being somewhere between 31 and 45), and 4 second round picks in 2029.

Can these players improve? Absolutely. But, the probability and the possibility of their improvement should have already been factored into how other NBA teams value those players.

To me, this shows how poorly this front office has drafted.

Hopefully, I am wrong.

Sarr, Bub and George are all players that would likely be top 15 picks in a 2024 redraft.

Whether or not Sarr turns out to be the second best player in that draft remains to be seen. After all, he’s only 20 yrs old (doesn’t turn 21 until next April) and just entering his second year in the NBA.

It was a steal getting George with the 24th pick. Dawkins & Co. deserve props for that. Ky has a ton of upside, imo.

As for Bilal, I get the concern about the drop off in his 3pt shooting from year one to year two. He needs to get better there as well as shooting from midrange. At the same time though, there was a clear improvement in his ball handling and playmaking between years one and two. And he’s already shown that he has the makings of an elite defender. Let’s be patient.

I’m happy to have Cam. If he turns out to be best of our youngins I’m cool with that. It would mean more kudos for Dawkins & Co. for pulling the trigger on the trade with Houston.

[leswizards]

I think a lot of teams would trade a FRP for Bub, George or Sarr.

Unlikely. No lotto bound team will give up their first round pick for one of those players. No playoff team will give up their first round pick for one of those players until they demonstrate that they can help them in the playoffs. The only teams that would be willing to trade a first round pick is a lotto bound team that holds the rights to a playoff bound teams pick.