2025 Draft Thread - Part 3

[payitforward]

Coming out of high school, Edgecombe was #4 on the RSCI top 100 prospects. Carrington was nowhere on the previous year's list.

Edgecombe had a *much* better Freshman college season than Bub.

If we draft Edgecombe, does this reflect on Bub's future as a Wizard?

... Two tickets that we like (maybe more with AJ on the team as well) on the “what will they be at age 25?” lottery.
...
there is no one on our team that should keep us from drafting BPA. We can trade Poole if we need to have plenty of minutes for everyone.

Absolutely!

[payitforward]

2nd to final list:

Tier 1 - Revolutionize the game tier
None

Tier 2 - Your franchise 'engine'
1. F Cooper Flagg
2. G Dylan Harper

Tier 3 - Weakness of the draft - High level starting quality talent
3. SG V.J. Edgecombe
4. SG Tre Johnson
5. SF Ace Bailey (Ace is really b/w 3rd/4th tiers IMO)

Tier 4 - Depth of the draft - Potential solid starters & high level role players.

6. PG Jeremiah Fears
7. FC Derik Queen
8. FC Danny Wolf
9. GF Will Riley
10. F Noah Penda
11. PG Kasparas Jakucionis
12. C Thomas Sorber
13. F Carter Bryant
14. C Khaman Maluach
15. PG Walter Clayton Jr
16. PG Nolan Traore
17. FC Collin Murray-Boyles
18. GF Kon Knueppel
19. SG Jase Richardson
20. PG Ben Saraf
21. GF Hugo Gonzalez

Tier 5 - Continued depth of the draft - guys that can develop into solid role players or fringe starters.

22. C Hansen Yang
23. FC Noa Essengue
24. FC Asa Newell
25. FC Rasheer Fleming
26. GF Cedric Coward
27. GF Neoklis Avdalas
28. C Maxime Raynaud
29. G Nique Clifford
30. F Adou Thiero
31. GF Egor Demin
32. C Joan Beringer
33. SF Liam McNeeley
34. C Johni Broome

Tier 6 - Tier most impacted by returnees. Potential role players, depth, projects.

35. PF Bogoljub Markovic
36. PF Alex Toohey
37. SG Drake Powell
38. C Ryan Kalkbrenner
39. PG Javon Small
40. C Rocco Zikarsky
41. GF Sion James
42. SG Koby Brea
43. C Amari Williams
44. G Kam Jones

Tier 7 - Two-ways, exhibit 10s, G-league...
44. PF Eric Dixon
45. G Hunter Sallis
46. G Tyrese Proctor
47. GF Jamir Watkins
48. SG John Tonje
49. C Yanic Konan Niederhauser
50. F Grant Nelson
51. PG Ryan Nembhard
52. PG Mark Sears
53. C Vladisav Goldin
54. G Max Shugla
54. F R.J. Luis Jr
55. G Tamar Bates
56. G Alijah Martin
57. G Caleb Love
58. GF Kobe Saunders

This is terrific, Dat -- &, based on more conventional mocks I've seen, if we traded down with NJ (6, 18, & 40 for 8, 26, 27 & 36), it looks like we might well be able to grab Will Riley (8), Danny Wolf (26), Noah Penda (27), & Hugo Gonzalez (36).

We would have gotten your 8th, 9th, 10th, & 21st best prospects by using the 8th, 26th, 27th & 36th pick -- obviously a very positive draft!

[dckingsfan]

Relative to the consensus, you are significantly more favorable of the following guys:

Wolf (+14)
Penda (+16)
Riley (+14)
Clayton Jr. (+12)
Saraf (+8)
Gonzalez (+9)

And significantly less favorable of:

Knueppel (-12)
Maluach (-7)
Essengue (-13)
Demin (-17)
McNeeley (-16)
Clifford (-10)

Most of your other rankings in the first round are generally in line with consensus.

(Numbers in parenthesis are the delta between your ranking and the consensus board)

Wolf - uniquely skilled C capable of running an offense. How many 7-0 250 lb bigs you see pull off stepback 3s with ease? Can run the P&R or be the roll man. Versatility will make him invaluable for creative offensive coaches.


Penda - elite defensive traits paired with high level processing. His hands are special on defense. Has + playmaking skill. Solidly built and can guard 3s & 4s.

Riley - Very lengthy wing with solid IQ, ball skill and shot creation abilities. Has 3-level scoring potential & tools to be a solid defender as well.

Clayton Jr - High level shot maker & decision maker. Very Payton Pritchard-like IMO. Could be ROY candidate in right situation.

Saraf - Wing-sized PG with craft who can get into the paint regularly and also has solid defensive tools. Showed solid improvement over this past season.

Gonzalez - High level athlete with solid handle and good first step, he also has plus defensive tools, a good motor and good size for a wing.

Knueppel - I don't buy his creation off the dribble. His first step is actually ok but his 2nd & 3rd steps are as he quickly loses momentum going downhill. Alot of his rim runs ended with his back to the basket and using his lower body strength to carve enough space to find an angle to release his shot. He will also be targeted relentlessly on defense.

Maluach - I love the size & frame naturally but I worry about how raw he is in nearly all aspects. I really worry about his reaction time - everything is a beat slow in his rotations defensively. Duke was better defensively with him OFF the floor. I also don't think the jump shot is anywhere close to being NBA ready.

Essengue - His offensive skill is too raw for my liking to play F. Handle & shot are a long ways away. I view him as an energy guy stuck b/w positions until he's strong enough to play C.

Demin - Can see the floor well but that's about it. Not an NBA PG in any shape or form. A future connective wing that needs to learn how to shoot and doesn't have a clear position to defend.

McNeeley - Not impressed with him athletically. Appears a bit stiff. I think shooting is likely his only plus skill. Basic handle to attack closeouts but that's it. His range of outcomes feels as high as Duncan Robinson (useful role player) to being out of the league.

Clifford - I don't dislike him. I will grade college vets pretty harshly especially when there is not one standout they have. He does a little of everything well which is what I expect out of mature & seasined player but I don't know if I buy his shooting enough to say he's an automatic rotation player which he needs to be from day one to warrant his selection at his age.

Terrific list for sure. And given that there is zero consensus among mocks when you get past say 10 - it would make sense that you have different views.

I watched a lot of Penda - he is a good on ball defender but not such a good weakside defender - I don't know why. I kind of like Gonzalez better that way, he is all over the court but... it was a really small sample size that I watched. Saraf is also a puzzle to me. He is undeniably skilled with the ball in his hands and he is big for a PG: 6’6” barefoot, 200 lbs, 6’8 ¾" wingspan, 8’4” standing reach, and 8” x 9 ½" hands - but I am not sure I buy the shot - maybe you don't need that when you seem to be able to get to the hoop at will.

So of those 3, I rate them as Saraf then Gonzalez then Penda. And given the "flatness" of the draft, I can see why teams aren't going to want to trade up.

My 1/2 cent.

[Dat2U]

Relative to the consensus, you are significantly more favorable of the following guys:

Wolf (+14)
Penda (+16)
Riley (+14)
Clayton Jr. (+12)
Saraf (+8)
Gonzalez (+9)

And significantly less favorable of:

Knueppel (-12)
Maluach (-7)
Essengue (-13)
Demin (-17)
McNeeley (-16)
Clifford (-10)

Most of your other rankings in the first round are generally in line with consensus.

(Numbers in parenthesis are the delta between your ranking and the consensus board)

Wolf - uniquely skilled C capable of running an offense. How many 7-0 250 lb bigs you see pull off stepback 3s with ease? Can run the P&R or be the roll man. Versatility will make him invaluable for creative offensive coaches.


Penda - elite defensive traits paired with high level processing. His hands are special on defense. Has + playmaking skill. Solidly built and can guard 3s & 4s.

Riley - Very lengthy wing with solid IQ, ball skill and shot creation abilities. Has 3-level scoring potential & tools to be a solid defender as well.

Clayton Jr - High level shot maker & decision maker. Very Payton Pritchard-like IMO. Could be ROY candidate in right situation.

Saraf - Wing-sized PG with craft who can get into the paint regularly and also has solid defensive tools. Showed solid improvement over this past season.

Gonzalez - High level athlete with solid handle and good first step, he also has plus defensive tools, a good motor and good size for a wing.

Knueppel - I don't buy his creation off the dribble. His first step is actually ok but his 2nd & 3rd steps are as he quickly loses momentum going downhill. Alot of his rim runs ended with his back to the basket and using his lower body strength to carve enough space to find an angle to release his shot. He will also be targeted relentlessly on defense.

Maluach - I love the size & frame naturally but I worry about how raw he is in nearly all aspects. I really worry about his reaction time - everything is a beat slow in his rotations defensively. Duke was better defensively with him OFF the floor. I also don't think the jump shot is anywhere close to being NBA ready.

Essengue - His offensive skill is too raw for my liking to play F. Handle & shot are a long ways away. I view him as an energy guy stuck b/w positions until he's strong enough to play C.

Demin - Can see the floor well but that's about it. Not an NBA PG in any shape or form. A future connective wing that needs to learn how to shoot and doesn't have a clear position to defend.

McNeeley - Not impressed with him athletically. Appears a bit stiff. I think shooting is likely his only plus skill. Basic handle to attack closeouts but that's it. His range of outcomes feels as high as Duncan Robinson (useful role player) to being out of the league.

Clifford - I don't dislike him. I will grade college vets pretty harshly especially when there is not one standout they have. He does a little of everything well which is what I expect out of mature & seasined player but I don't know if I buy his shooting enough to say he's an automatic rotation player which he needs to be from day one to warrant his selection at his age.

Terrific list for sure. And given that there is zero consensus among mocks when you get past say 10 - it would make sense that you have different views.

I watched a lot of Penda - he is a good on ball defender but not such a good weakside defender - I don't know why. I kind of like Gonzalez better that way, he is all over the court but... it was a really small sample size that I watched. Saraf is also a puzzle to me. He is undeniably skilled with the ball in his hands and he is big for a PG: 6’6” barefoot, 200 lbs, 6’8 ¾" wingspan, 8’4” standing reach, and 8” x 9 ½" hands - but I am not sure I buy the shot - maybe you don't need that when you seem to be able to get to the hoop at will.

So of those 3, I rate them as Saraf then Gonzalez then Penda. And given the "flatness" of the draft, I can see why teams aren't going to want to trade up.

My 1/2 cent.

8-21 of my board is completely flat.

The difference b/w them all is really small. Its truly based on preference. I don't see a significant difference b/w Penda, Saraf & Gonzalez other than Saraf & Gonzalez having slighlty lower floors IMO.

[dckingsfan]

I watched a lot of Penda - he is a good on ball defender but not such a good weakside defender - I don't know why. I kind of like Gonzalez better that way, he is all over the court but... it was a really small sample size that I watched. Saraf is also a puzzle to me. He is undeniably skilled with the ball in his hands and he is big for a PG: 6’6” barefoot, 200 lbs, 6’8 ¾" wingspan, 8’4” standing reach, and 8” x 9 ½" hands - but I am not sure I buy the shot - maybe you don't need that when you seem to be able to get to the hoop at will.

So of those 3, I rate them as Saraf then Gonzalez then Penda. And given the "flatness" of the draft, I can see why teams aren't going to want to trade up.

My 1/2 cent.

8-21 of my board is completely flat.

The difference b/w them all is really small. Its truly based on preference. I don't see a significant difference b/w Penda, Saraf & Gonzalez other than Saraf & Gonzalez having slighlty lower floors IMO.

Yeah, I have Saraf with the higher ceiling.

The big IF is the shot. If the shot develops, you have a PG that can get to the rim and finish and a 3-way offensive player and a solid defender. BUT - he needs to get drafted to a team that would put the ball in his hands even in a backup roll as a PG - Brooklyn? Orlando? Portland? TWolves? Dallas?

I would say he isn't a good pick for the Wizards.

[payitforward]

8-21 of my board is completely flat.

Makes me hope all the more for the trade down with the Nets, as at least a handful of guys you've got in that range will be there for us at 26 & 27.

[DCZards]

Thanks for your list, DAT. It always gives us stuff to debate.

I know you say that your list is essentially flat in the 8-21 range, but one of the players I think you seriously underrate is Coward. He can flat-out score, which is an ability that will transfer easily to the NBA, imo.

I think Carter Bryant will turn out to be better than several of the players you have listed ahead of him, primarily because of his athleticism, elite defense, and 3pt shooting.

Another player who I think will be a lot better than where you have him ranked is Drake Powell. He’s a first round talent. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him go in the 20-25 range.

If you’re thinking that I overrate long, rangy, athletic defenders…you’re probably right. But watching how good D has become increasingly dominant/important in the NBA, including in the current finals, I think my instincts may be sound in that regard.

I hadn’t thought about the Clayton-Pritchard comparison but you might be spot on.

[DCZards]

Micah Peavy from G’Town hasn’t been mentioned. So I will bring him up. He’s my second round sleeper.

Peavy is an all-NBA level defender who has improved his 3pt shooting. It works against Peavy that he’s 23 yrs old—soon to be 24—but I look for him to be drafted in the second round by a top ten team that’s looking for a 3&D with the physical and mental makeup to step in and contribute right away.

[dckingsfan]

I still think that Brooklyn will try to move some combination of 26, 27 and 37 to move up into the teens. I don't think they will move off of 8 & 19.

We shall see though - I think this draft will be wild starting with the Bane trade, the inevitable Durant trade and the flatness of this draft.

[Dat2U]

Micah Peavy from G’Town hasn’t been mentioned. So I will bring him up. He’s my second round sleeper.

Peavy is an all-NBA level defender who has improved his 3pt shooting. It works against Peavy that he’s 23 yrs old—soon to be 24—but I look for him to be drafted in the second round by a top ten team that’s looking for a 3&D with the physical and mental makeup to step in and contribute right away.

I'm so harsh on 23-24 yr olds, its not even fair tbh lol. Last 23-34 yr old I actually liked was Brandon Clarke and he had to have one the most productive seasons in college in recent memory to get me on board. Peavy just missed my cutoff, he was literally next on the list. Was not really confident on him and I did not love him at GTown so he's the beginning of Tier 8.

[Dat2U]

Thanks for your list, DAT. It always gives us stuff to debate.

I know you say that your list is essentially flat in the 8-21 range, but one of the players I think you seriously underrate is Coward. He can flat-out score, which is an ability that will transfer easily to the NBA, imo.

I think Carter Bryant will turn out to be better than several of the players you have listed ahead of him, primarily because of his athleticism, elite defense, and 3pt shooting.

Another player who I think will be a lot better than where you have him ranked is Drake Powell. He’s a first round talent. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him go in the 20-25 range.

If you’re thinking that I overrate long, rangy, athletic defenders…you’re probably right. But watching how good D has become increasingly dominant/important in the NBA, including in the current finals, I think my instincts may be sound in that regard.

I hadn’t thought about the Clayton-Pritchard comparison but you might be spot on.

I like Carter Bryant. Just b/c I have him mid-1st doesn't mean I wouldn't like him to end up in DC. I admit his HS tape reminded me alot of Shaedon Sharpe. Handle wasn't great but he was at least comfortable putting together a chain a moves to create space for his jumper and he was defenitely comfortable using the step back or just pulling up off the dribble.

To be honest there are 21 prospects I'd be happy with at 18... I've even come around on CMB to an extent. That's what makes this draft so tough. Most drafts aren't this flat & deep. I just wish Tier 3 wasn't so thin. I do see why some tier 5 and alot of tier 6 guys dropped out. In many years they are considered 1st round picks but not this year!

Drake Powell is one of the last of the top 40 guys I have to do a deep dive on so he could potentially still move up when my final list comes out.

[BMagic]

2nd to final list:

Tier 1 - Revolutionize the game tier
None

Tier 2 - Your franchise 'engine'
1. F Cooper Flagg
2. G Dylan Harper

Tier 3 - Weakness of the draft - High level starting quality talent
3. SG V.J. Edgecombe
4. SG Tre Johnson
5. SF Ace Bailey (Ace is really b/w 3rd/4th tiers IMO)

So Bub hitting that shot against the Heat is coming back to haunt us unless someone unexpected goes in the Top 5 or Dawkins moves up.

[closg00]

2nd to final list:

Tier 1 - Revolutionize the game tier
None

Tier 2 - Your franchise 'engine'
1. F Cooper Flagg
2. G Dylan Harper

Tier 3 - Weakness of the draft - High level starting quality talent
3. SG V.J. Edgecombe
4. SG Tre Johnson
5. SF Ace Bailey (Ace is really b/w 3rd/4th tiers IMO)

So Bub hitting that shot against the Heat is coming back to haunt us unless someone unexpected goes in the Top 5 or Dawkins moves up.

#sowizards The first 5 picks are likely to be: Flagg, Harper, Edgecomb, Bailey, and Johnson, barring a trade-up, I don't see how we would swing on Bilal @7, and not take Fears @ 6 who is effectively a college freshman now.

Here he is working out with Mike Miller, not missing any 3-pointers in an open gym anyway...

Watch on YouTube

[TheBlackCzar]

So Bub hitting that shot against the Heat is coming back to haunt us unless someone unexpected goes in the Top 5 or Dawkins moves up.

#sowizards The first 5 picks are likely to be: Flagg, Harper, Edgecomb, Bailey, and Johnson, barring a trade-up, I don't see how we would swing on Bilal @7, and not take Fears @ 6 who is effectively a college freshman now.

Here he is working out with Mike Miller, not missing any 3-pointers in an open gym anyway...

Watch on YouTube

I honestly believe he's going to outshine multiple guys drafted above him, which is why I'm like why trade up, lets roll with him and trade up for a C to rock with him and let's go...

He did hit 20 3's this season in excess of 30'..... 20 of his 38 makes were bombs and people say he's not going to improve as a shooter...

[closg00]

So Bub hitting that shot against the Heat is coming back to haunt us unless someone unexpected goes in the Top 5 or Dawkins moves up.

#sowizards The first 5 picks are likely to be: Flagg, Harper, Edgecomb, Bailey, and Johnson, barring a trade-up, I don't see how we would swing on Bilal @7, and not take Fears @ 6 who is effectively a college freshman now.

Here he is working out with Mike Miller, not missing any 3-pointers in an open gym anyway...

Watch on YouTube

I honestly believe he's going to outshine multiple guys drafted above him, which is why I'm like why trade up, lets roll with him and trade up for a C to rock with him and let's go...

He did hit 20 3's this season in excess of 30'..... 20 of his 38 makes were bombs and people say he's not going to improve as a shooter...

I would be happy with a Fears/Sorber/Dixon draft.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

#sowizards The first 5 picks are likely to be: Flagg, Harper, Edgecomb, Bailey, and Johnson, barring a trade-up, I don't see how we would swing on Bilal @7, and not take Fears @ 6 who is effectively a college freshman now.

Here he is working out with Mike Miller, not missing any 3-pointers in an open gym anyway...

Watch on YouTube

I honestly believe he's going to outshine multiple guys drafted above him, which is why I'm like why trade up, lets roll with him and trade up for a C to rock with him and let's go...

He did hit 20 3's this season in excess of 30'..... 20 of his 38 makes were bombs and people say he's not going to improve as a shooter...

I would be happy with a Fears/Sorber/Dixon draft.

I'm really loving the idea of Fears & Beringer.

I'm imagining a highly up tempo team constantly pushing the pace, Fears leading the break, penetrating the lane and dishing to Beringer or Bilal cutting to the basket for a dunk, kicking out to an open Sarr, Carrington or Kyshawn. Full court press on D with 2 fast long rim protectors.


But....

I have a feeling we are all going to be stunned by what Dawkins actually does.

[gesa2]

Unless we can get into the top 2 the thing I’m most confident in for this draft is that we should not trade up. No need to cash in even minor assets to take a player that is likely in the same tier!!

[nate33]

Unless we can get into the top 2 the thing I’m most confident in for this draft is that we should not trade up. No need to cash in even minor assets to take a player that is likely in the same tier!!

I don't think they're in the same tier. I think 3, 4, and 5 are in a tier above 6-20.

[DCZards]

Unless we can get into the top 2 the thing I’m most confident in for this draft is that we should not trade up. No need to cash in even minor assets to take a player that is likely in the same tier!!

I don't think they're in the same tier. I think 3, 4, and 5 are in a tier above 6-20.

They may be in a tier above on paper but the only players I see as likely being clearly better than the rest of the players in the top 6-8 are Flagg and Harper.

The player the Zards get at 6 could turn out to be better than the 3-5 picks.

[gesa2]

Unless we can get into the top 2 the thing I’m most confident in for this draft is that we should not trade up. No need to cash in even minor assets to take a player that is likely in the same tier!!

I don't think they're in the same tier. I think 3, 4, and 5 are in a tier above 6-20.

I’d rate 3-5 above the players after too, but they all have enough warts that I wouldn’t give what I expect it would take to move up - a FRP or promising player.