WizFans, what are your expectations?

[Higga]

If Gil is back to form I could see us maybe pushing for an 8 seed, but I'd rather trade him and start with a fresh, clean slate with Wall and more young players. Even if that means sucking some more...

[sfam]

If Gil is back to form I could see us maybe pushing for an 8 seed, but I'd rather trade him and start with a fresh, clean slate with Wall and more young players. Even if that means sucking some more...

I'm still mixed on this. If I knew Gil was gonna come back, play well and not whig out on us, I'm perfectly happy with Gil on the Wizards. By the end of the season, all will be forgiven, and everyone will be talking about what a dynamic back court we have. But of course there's a risk that Gil has lost a step, or drops back into the Gilbert Zone.

But if we dump him, I really want something other than expiring in return. NY's unprotected 1st in say 2012 plus Curry would be OK for me.

[AceDegenerate]

Barring injury this is a .500 team and anywhere from a 6-8 seed in the East depending how things shake out with the rest of the conference.

[Benjammin]

Barring injury this is a .500 team and anywhere from a 6-8 seed in the East depending how things shake out with the rest of the conference.

What flavor kool-aid have you been swigging? The Wizards already have an injury (Blatche) and they haven't made it to training camp yet. Unless Wall and Gil are dynamite together and the young big guys take a real step forward, I have a hard time seeing this team win more than 30-35 games. The Wizards are very weak at the 3, and weak at the 5 as well.

[closg00]

Barring injury this is a .500 team and anywhere from a 6-8 seed in the East depending how things shake out with the rest of the conference.

What flavor kool-aid have you been swigging? The Wizards already have an injury (Blatche) and they haven't made it to training camp yet. Unless Wall and Gil are dynamite together and the young big guys take a real step forward, I have a hard time seeing this team win more than 30-35 games. The Wizards are very weak at the 3, and weak at the 5 as well.

+1 Beware of big-men with foot injuries, I expect Blatche to be out much-longer than projected.
Reserving final prediction until the final roster is released.

[AceDegenerate]

Exactly. Barring injury is the keyword, hasn't it always been for this team?

Anyway. An injury to Wall, Blatche or even Arenas and I've said all along this team is back in the lottery. The word up until this point has been Blatche will be back by the start of the season, which remains to be seen, if he is not ready then Yes I consider that an injury and would temper expectations significantly.

[sfam]

Exactly. Barring injury is the keyword, hasn't it always been for this team?

Anyway. An injury to Wall, Blatche or even Arenas and I've said all along this team is back in the lottery. The word up until this point has been Blatche will be back by the start of the season, which remains to be seen, if he is not ready then Yes I consider that an injury and would temper expectations significantly.

I think we have to wonder how Blatche comes back even if he makes it to the start of the season. It amazes me how this guy's offseason is always a nightmare. He's like our poor man's version of Ben Roethlisberger. That said, I would be happy with predicting a range of 26-43 wins. Said another way, I'd put .500 at the outside of our chances - still possible but not likely.

[pancakes3]

As a self confessed spelling nazi who should probably shut up about
it more often...

at a cookout i just about made this one girl cry by berating her for using "for all intensive purposes" instead of the correct "for all intents and purposes". s-mouthed smiley indeed.

[Wiz99]

The original question was how far away are the Wizards from a championship and being a perennial contender, and the most basic yardstick to measure that is years. So here goes...

5 years

First, Wall is too immature. He's just 1 year separated from playing scrawny high school children and now he'll be going head to head nightly with world class PGs like Wade, Rondo, Derrick Rose, Devin Harris (all star 2 yrs ago), Jose Calderon (2nd in league in PPR 2 yrs ago after Chris Paul). And that's just in the eastern conference. He will need time to adjust just to survive. But to leap to championship caliber play? That takes a few more years. Jordan needed 6 years in the league before leading the Bulls to a trophy. You telling me Wall needs less? I'll give him 1 year less than MJ, but not more.

Second, no one in the past 30 years has won a trophy without at least 2 top shelf, hall of fame caliber players in their prime. Probably back to the 79-80 Sonics. You could make an argument the 93-94 Rockets didn't meet that standard (but Olajuwon did have Cassel, Big Shot Bob, Kenny Smith and Vernon Maxwell). You might say...

Wait, we have Gil. He's one heckuva player, but I stick him in the same bucket as Iverson, Stephon Marbury and Dominique Wilkins -- fantastic scorers who couldn't lead squads to a ring. Just something fundamental missing. Maybe they were too individualistic, or selfish if you want to bag on them. Maybe they didn't play defense. Maybe they simply didn't demand enough of their teammates, a la MJ who was ruthless but very effective in bringing out top performance from his teammates, lest they suffer his wrath. Whatever it is, I'm now 100% convinced Gil does not have it. Great player. Time to move on.

So my 5 year horizon assumes we will have to trade Gil. And given how low his rep is right now, the only way we don't get royally screwed, getting pennies on the dollar for Gil, is if we hold on to him for preferably 2 years. It will take that long to prove his knee is solid and for the memory of 6 shooter Gil to fade in the minds of other teams' GMs and the fans they would need have to sell on Gil. Might even be 3 years, until Gil has 1 year left on his deal. Even then, I don't expect we will get equal value. Wiz might find offers the likes of Atlanta dumping Joe Johnson (could he be John Wall's Scotty Pippen?), or Portland if they decide to go a different direction without LaMarcus Aldridge (Wall's Horace Grant?).

So where does the 2nd top-shelf, hall of fame player come from that's required to win a 'chip? I'm banking on the draft, and that's why I hope the Wiz take a go slow approach, rack up another top lotto pick, and if possible get more 1st or high 2nd round picks if they do any trades. It's not a crazy strategy. Remember, the Spurs are built around ONE overall number one pick (TD) and 2 shrewd picks late in the first (Parker) and from the 2nd round (Manu).

[montestewart]

Second, no one in the past 30 years has won a trophy without at least 2 top shelf, hall of fame caliber players in their prime. Probably back to the 79-80 Sonics. You could make an argument the 93-94 Rockets didn't meet that standard (but Olajuwon did have Cassel, Big Shot Bob, Kenny Smith and Vernon Maxwell).

You could argue the same for the 94-95 Rockets, since Drexler was no longer in his prime, or treat the Rockets as an anomaly, since the team won championships only while MJ was retired. You could legitimately argue that no one from the 2003-2004 Pistons team will make the HOF, though I suppose that doesn't negate them being HOF caliber the year the Pistons won it all. In any case, the Wizards need some HOFer types.

[sfam]

Second, no one in the past 30 years has won a trophy without at least 2 top shelf, hall of fame caliber players in their prime. Probably back to the 79-80 Sonics. You could make an argument the 93-94 Rockets didn't meet that standard (but Olajuwon did have Cassel, Big Shot Bob, Kenny Smith and Vernon Maxwell).

You could argue the same for the 94-95 Rockets, since Drexler was no longer in his prime, or treat the Rockets as an anomaly, since the team won championships only while MJ was retired. You could legitimately argue that no one from the 2003-2004 Pistons team will make the HOF, though I suppose that doesn't negate them being HOF caliber the year the Pistons won it all. In any case, the Wizards need some HOFer types.

I don't see anyone on the 2003-2004 Pistons making the HOF. Instead they had four high quality players in Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton, Ben Wallace and Tayshaun Prince. They also had Rasheed Wallace, who, when focussed, is really good. But again, I'd be surprised if any of those made the HOF. Billups perhaps has an outside shot but that's about it, and I certainly have never heard him referred to as a "Top Shelf" HOF player.

EDIT: Does this mean we've already inducted Pau Gasol as a top shelf HOFer? Really?

[Benjammin]

As a self confessed spelling nazi who should probably shut up about
it more often...

at a cookout i just about made this one girl cry by berating her for using "for all intensive purposes" instead of the correct "for all intents and purposes". s-mouthed smiley indeed.

Thanks for sharing that story. That is an excellent example. On a cultural note, perhaps since political correctness, but why do we so often hear that someone "made" someone cry? I agree that someone can take offense at a comment and in extreme circumstances it may elicit tears, but a person generally has a choice over how he or she responds to a comment or situation. It's all too easy to blame someone else for "making" one to have a certain reaction. Offense does not have to mean automatically injury unless one is particularly vulnerable or weak or likes to play the victim.

[montestewart]

^
I was reading it as a top-shelf player in his prime, who would merit serious consideration for the HOF, without necessarily making it. If I read that correctly, Billups has an outside shot at the HOF, and that championship season is his prime, the centerpiece of his HOF consideration. Gasol is also a top-shelf player, and by the end of his career, he likely will merit serious HOF consideration. No one else on that Pistons team will probably ever get serious HOF consideration, and I don't think Billups will make it, unless he adds some signifiacnt achievement to his resume.

With the Bad Boy Pistons, you could also easily argue that Dantley, Aguirre, and Laimbeer were past their primes, and Rodman had not entered his relatively late prime yet.

If you look at some of the championship teams over the last 30 years, some of their top-shelf players were not added through top lottery picks, but came through lower picks, trades, or even FA signings. If Wall is HOF caliber, the Wizards don't necessarily need another top pick to get seriously back into the mix. Not that I'd complain if they got another #1.

[MJ7]

We need a power forward, a good one.

[verbal8]

We need a power forward, a good one.

I think PF is currently the position of the least need.

The current and future starter(Blatche) is on the roster. The Wizards need Blatche to come back healthy. As back-ups the Wizards have some good options. Seraphin should be able to contribute some minutes this year. Hopefully Yi is at least decent. I think McGee could earn some spot minutes at PF if Seraphin can establish himself as a center. I would like to see Singleton retained because they need a dependable rebounder.

[sfam]

^
I was reading it as a top-shelf player in his prime, who would merit serious consideration for the HOF, without necessarily making it. If I read that correctly, Billups has an outside shot at the HOF, and that championship season is his prime, the centerpiece of his HOF consideration. Gasol is also a top-shelf player, and by the end of his career, he likely will merit serious HOF consideration. No one else on that Pistons team will probably ever get serious HOF consideration, and I don't think Billups will make it, unless he adds some signifiacnt achievement to his resume.

With the Bad Boy Pistons, you could also easily argue that Dantley, Aguirre, and Laimbeer were past their primes, and Rodman had not entered his relatively late prime yet.

If you look at some of the championship teams over the last 30 years, some of their top-shelf players were not added through top lottery picks, but came through lower picks, trades, or even FA signings. If Wall is HOF caliber, the Wizards don't necessarily need another top pick to get seriously back into the mix. Not that I'd complain if they got another #1.

The other thing to keep in mind is if we keep Arenas, his 32 years of age won't be the same as most others' 32 years. He'll be closer to 29 in playing age, considering he's pretty much taken off three years.

[Wiz99]

Second, no one in the past 30 years has won a trophy without at least 2 top shelf, hall of fame caliber players in their prime. Probably back to the 79-80 Sonics. You could make an argument the 93-94 Rockets didn't meet that standard (but Olajuwon did have Cassel, Big Shot Bob, Kenny Smith and Vernon Maxwell).

You could argue the same for the 94-95 Rockets, since Drexler was no longer in his prime, or treat the Rockets as an anomaly, since the team won championships only while MJ was retired. You could legitimately argue that no one from the 2003-2004 Pistons team will make the HOF, though I suppose that doesn't negate them being HOF caliber the year the Pistons won it all. In any case, the Wizards need some HOFer types.

I don't see anyone on the 2003-2004 Pistons making the HOF. Instead they had four high quality players in Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton, Ben Wallace and Tayshaun Prince. They also had Rasheed Wallace, who, when focussed, is really good. But again, I'd be surprised if any of those made the HOF. Billups perhaps has an outside shot but that's about it, and I certainly have never heard him referred to as a "Top Shelf" HOF player.

EDIT: Does this mean we've already inducted Pau Gasol as a top shelf HOFer? Really?

Several things to respond to here. First, no way you can bag on Clyde and say he does not rank as a HOFer. Dude averaged 20-6-6 over 15 seasons, never had a season that he missed the playoffs, went to the Finals 3x, and just to prove my point, the 2x he lost it was against Bulls and Laker squad with 2 HOFers (Jordan-Pippen, Magic-Kareem) while he was on his own, until he joined Olajuwon in Houston and presto, championship. So the 94-95 Rockets prove the theory.

Second, yes I would include Pau Gasol as a top-shelf HOFer in the making. In 9 years in the NBA he averaged 19 and 9, and has replicated what they had under the Shaq-Kobe pairing: multiple championships. Any player who is one of 2 key players on a championship team, twice in a row, is a strong candidate for top tier HOF in my book.

The 03-04 Pistons is much more arguable as an exception to the rule. But as the saying goes, the exception proves the rule. In the past 30 years there are only 2 squads (93-94 Rockets, 03-04 Pistons) who have won a trophy without 2 top shelf HOF caliber players.

So, let's get back to the Wiz. If -- inshallah -- Wall grows into such a superstar, where do we get the 2nd? Someone please, just try and argue Gil is that guy, please. His lack of leadership, distaste for D, and penchant for untimely PR debacles has a lot more in common with Stephon Marbury and Dominique Wilkens than Jordan and Magic.

[sfam]

^ Um, you know Dominique Wilkens is in the Hall of Fame, right?

[Wiz99]

Read the original post. The precise words are top shelf HOFer. There are a lot of guys in the HOF, only a few are great. Would you prefer "all time great" as an alternate term?

I'm not saying having a great player or even two of them automatically gets you a championship. Shaq and Kobe didn't get that last ring even with Malone and Payton on the roster. That's a lot of HOF firepower, and it wasn't enough that year.

But if you look back over the teams that have won a trophy the past 30 years, it really looks like you must have 2 great players to have a realistic shot at the trophy.

So again, where will the Wiz get their second? Assuming/hoping Wall grows into his full potential (fingers crossed), I see one of 3 routes:

1. We steal someone with great talent who's on the verge of busting out. Maybe that's the best we can hope for with Gil: he returns to show his knee is no prob and he's still a great if one-dimensional scoring G. Perhaps we're able to hoodwink another team to trade us dollar for dollar, Gil for a budding great talent. But, I'm not betting on that kind of heist happening.

2. Someone totally unexpected on our roster turns into that great. Could happen. Maybe all Blatche needed was a few more years of maturity and all the PT he can handle. He seems like the one guy on our roster who could do this. Gil, I've seen enuf of to know he doesn't lead or play D.

3. We get lucky in the draft. Great HOFers are rare, but hey, why not hope we get another shot at one?

[sfam]

Read the original post. The precise words are top shelf HOFer. There are a lot of guys in the HOF, only a few are great. Would you prefer "all time great" as an alternate term?

Someone above interpreted that term to mean top-shelf player today, meaning this was separate from a HOF player. I didn't see that refuted.

But again, I think if you start separating out HOF players into top shelf and lower quality ones, you're gonna have a real hard time making your theory stick. I could certainly make a case that many of the second best players are not top shelf HOFers. Clyde Drexler, for instance, would certainly not make my cut for the top shelf.

EDIT: Neither would Joe Dumars, nor would I put Pau Gasol there. Heck, I don't think I'd put him in the HOF, let alone on the top shelf.