Are the Wizards a Playoff Team This Year?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The only thing that stops this team from making the playoffs is injury.

With no significant time missed by Wall, Arenas or Blatche. I'm predicting 45 Wins, 6th seed and possible winning 1st Rd series.

+20 games missed by either of Wall, Arenas or Blatche. I'm predicting 35 Wins and just missing the 8th seed.

I agree with this 100%.

[JonathanJoseph]

The only thing that stops this team from making the playoffs is injury.

With no significant time missed by Wall, Arenas or Blatche. I'm predicting 45 Wins, 6th seed and possible winning 1st Rd series.

+20 games missed by either of Wall, Arenas or Blatche. I'm predicting 35 Wins and just missing the 8th seed.

I agree with this 100%.

I'm holding off on a final prediction, but I've been in the 42-47 wins and 6th seed camp since this summer.

And if that gets revised, it will only be towards the higher end.

[fishercob]

I think this team is a playoff team, but if "the world" keeps stoning Gil, they won't make the playoffs. I think this Wiz team is better than any Bullet/Wiz team in 30 years. Outside of the Big 3 in the past few years, there was nothing else on the roster.

yeahhhhhh buddy. optimism!

seriously though, we just hit the lotto twice in adding wall AND gil. how many teams do you think could swap out a merry-go-round backcourt of foye/miller/young/livingston for gil/wall/hinrich and still only manage to improve 4 games?

yeah. +4 wins. we won 26 games last season and still people are calling for a 30 win season? yipes.

Agreed. I'm shocked at the pessimism around here. If we go with the 22 win post post-trade deadline pace, I'm adding 10 wins for Wall and 10 wins for Arenas.

Defensive rebounding is and will be a concern. And needless to say, that will need to solved somehow before the Wizards are actual contenders. But that's not going to make the Wizards a horrid, 30 win team. That's what will get them knocked out of the playoffs in the first round.

Fish, we did this dance once before. You keep saying the team will be bad defensively but that just doesn't seem to be manifesting itself in anything other than sad-Wizards history. The team is playing good defense as a team and all of a sudden boasts a number of very good individual defensive players (Wall, Hinrich, Booker, Blatche) and Gilbert Arenas is playing honest-to-goodness defense. And for all of Javale McGee's defensive faults, he is an intimidator in the lane and is blocking shots. He's got a long way to go, but he's having an impact now.

I'm still holding off on a final prediction, because I've only seen 1 pre-season game and a few highlights, but how everyone isn't over the top optimistic right now I have no idea. That was a championship contender on the road in Dallas and the Wizards ran them off the floor, despite it being obvious that John Wall will be much better very soon. But my 42-47 win range and a playoff berth from earlier this summer still looks good to me.

First off, just because I dont think the Wiz are going to top 35 wins doesn't mean I'm "not over the top optimistic." I am, but I think it's going to take some time for everyone to grow individually and together.

Secondly, the Wiz did not run a championship contender off the floor. Dallas' starters averaged 20 MPG. They're getting in to game shape, running a fraction of their sets, etc. It's very dangerous and foolish to extrapolate a record based on a meaningless exhibition. Hell, the Wizards won their opener last year @ Dallas -- a real game -- and were still awful.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Washington scored 38 in the first against Dallas' starters. Kidd looked like a statue as Wall drove around him. Hinrich thoroughly frustrated Butler. They killed Dallas. Might have just been an exhibition game, but the Wizards thoroughly dominated the Mavs for three quarters. Bad young teams can't do that.

Yes, the Wizards really did look great in the season opener vs Dallas last season. You got me there. No come back for that one other than to say I believe instead of having injuries, a short bench, shot jacking veterans that don't play defense; this season we'll see a team get better and better. We'll be longer, faster, better defensively, much more unselfish, and have a better outcome than last season.

Flip can't really play just a few guys on this team. Too much talent. Much as I like McGee, I'm glad there will be nights where Yi runs with Blatche and three guards. Whatever wins.

[JonathanJoseph]

Washington scored 38 in the first against Dallas' starters. Kidd looked like a statue as Wall drove around him. Hinrich thoroughly frustrated Butler. They killed Dallas. Might have just been an exhibition game, but the Wizards thoroughly dominated the Mavs for three quarters.

Bad young teams can't do that.

Right. The final score was close, but that was because of the Nick Young/Al Thornton lineup. With the Wiz starters vs the Mavs starters, the Wizards ran them off the floor.

The caveats about it being preseason and limited sets and whatnot go both ways. If either team were to have easily built in excuses, it certainly was the Wizards, not the Mavs. As CCJ said, that was a "statement" that a bad team probably cannot make and there were flashes of the same versus the Cavs.

I didn't say that one preseason game made the Wizards championship contenders, but it sure looks like they are well ahead of a 30-35 win pace.

[Nivek]

Flip played a short-for-preseason rotation against Dallas. Dallas treated the game like a scrimmage.

And yes, bad young teams often do quite well in preseason. That's when young players are trying to make the team, trying to earn playing time, trying to impress the coaches, trying to impress the rest of the league in case they don't make the team. A veteran team mostly goes through the motions. Their starting lineup is decided. Most of the playing rotation is decided. They don't gameplan. They might use the game to work on a few things they've been doing in practice. Maybe try some lineup combinations to see what they look like. Maybe work on a few new sets; get re-acclimated to game situations.

Preseason means almost nothing. Outscoring a Dallas team that could not care less doesn't signify much of anything except that the Wizards played harder. Because Dallas did not care about that game. It wasn't a serious competition.

The best way to tell what players are going to do in this upcoming season is to look at what they did during the last regular season. There's some "carryover" from preseason for young players (a hopeful sign for the Wizards), but there's almost none for guys who have been in the league for a few seasons.

I'm all for hope -- I'm hoping too. But let's not overstate what we're actually seeing from the team. A couple good exhibition games don't say much about what's coming this season.

[hands11]

Can't rebound = no playoffs.

Someone else posted about rebounding in another thread and it got me thinking.

Raw rebounding numbers I don't really tell the full story of rebounding.

Sometimes, you have to look a little deeper.

Here is what they were getting at but didn't detail. If you get off more shots, there are more chances for them to defensive rebound. This could happen in part because you have more steals or they have more turnovers in total.

In that situation, looking at offensive rebounds and FGA could tell a different story.

Wiz vs Cleveland.

Rebounds 41 vs 52
Steals 11 vs 4
Blks 7 vs 8
TOs 13 vs 23
FGA 94 vs 85
ORB 14 vs 15
DRB 27 vs 37

So we took 9 more shots from 10 turnover and we had 10 less defensive rebounds.
Now we made 35% of our shots so that means they had about 6 more chances to DRB and they had 10 total more DRBs.

So we could have done better but it wasn't as bad as it looked. They really only outrebound us by like 5 when adjusted.

[hands11]

No. This team will most likely win 25-30 games. They're too inexperienced up front and haven't demonstrated toughness. Wall looks promising, but there are questions about his shooting percentage and turnovers. SF is a major weakness at least until Howard gets back.

There are plausible scenarios for the team to make the playoffs: Blatche builds on what he did after he became The Man; McGee "gets it" in his third year, becomes a solid rebounder, interior defender and finisher around the basket; Wall is the 2nd coming of Chris Paul; Arenas returns to 90% of what he used to be; Yi takes charge of the SF position and creates matchup problems; Hinrich provides leadership, steadiness and reliable production off the bench; and very few injuries.

I don't think it's unrealistic to expect some of these "scenarios" to occur. It's reasonable to think they can. It's not reasonable to think ALL will happen. Plus, players usually don't change all that much year-to-year. What a guy does this year is likely going to be something close to what he did last year plus or minus 20%.

My initial, no major analysis guess is 25-30 wins.

Bahhh. IMO, you are missing the picture. Plus, what is this player don't usually change stuff. Usually has nothing to do with our team specially. Besides, we don't really need a lot of players to change. Actually I hope we get a 20 pt scoring Gil, Dray from last year, Kirk of Kirk and Howard as he was. Add Wall and just what McGee, Yi, and AT has already done and that is playoff worth. Get a breakout from McGee and we look really playoff worthy.

38-45 wins as of now with who we know are healthy and when we get Howard back.

[hands11]

Everything depends on McGee. If he plays well and is at least average defensively I think the Wiz will make the playoffs easily. If McGee plays during the reg season like he played last night the Wiz will have a tough season and probably win only 25-30 games.

I disagree that it is all McGee. It is part McGee part Yi with Seraphin and Armstrong backing them up.

Between McGee and Yi, I think we have it cover with the new Yi and McGee stronger.

[hands11]

JWiz, I would love it if you're right. I've been burned too much being overly optimistic, and I see serious holes up front.

New day Broo

Ted is a rabbits foot. He has two #1 picks in two leagues. We have Wall.
We aren't old. Young players are less injury prone.
Flip and Sam in their second year. No EFJ here

It's ok to be hopeful and positive this time.

Well, unless on of our players goes off the deep end.

[FAH1223]

I'm saying the team will be .500 this season. 41 wins.

We have gotten to the postseason with a big 3 that didn't do much in the way of defense. I think the new big 3 (Wall, Arenas and Blatche) and as a team are much better defensively than our teams in the mid 2000s.

Obviously, the Eastern conference is stronger. BUT as Dat pointed out, the last two playoff spots are a toss up between 4-5 teams. I'm not impressed with what I have seen from the others and think the Wizards can beat them. Health is a major issue and lord knows the Wizards are due for a healthy season.

Also, being young and inexperienced will help and will hurt. But with Flip and his experience plus the three veterans of Arenas/Hinrich/Howard, things should be fine. I think Flip is going to also play EVERYONE because he is going to have many different combination line ups. Just pray no one goes to the doghouse. This team needs no drama!

One thing I'm definitely sure is going to happen is this team WILL sneak up on the big boys. Don't be surprised if they beat Miami or Boston or Orlando a few times this season. Cause I think the combination of athleticism and defense will help in playing teams like those. Of course I am expecting them to blow us out every now and then, but they should be competitive.

I'm also hoping for the ball to bounce our ways in close games and for Gilbert's free throw shooting to return to form in those closing minutes. We lost so many games last fall/winter that were under 4 points... I think this team can win atleast half of those.

[dobrojim]

someone predicted we'd get wept by BOS in the 1st rnd if we were to
match up. I'm not so sure. In the last 2 games last year we gave them
fits and nearly swept them in those 2 game. True that BOS kinda
coasted in the reg season but our team is definitely better than
last year. Probably quite a bit better. We also played ORL pretty
tough last year.

by mid-season or sooner we could well have the best
backcourt in the entire league (tell me who's better?).

[Nivek]

hands: There's a good stat for rebounding called rebounding percentage. Wiz last season were tied with 4 other teams for 7th in offensive rebounding percentage (.276). They were tied with 1 other team for 25th in defensive rebounding percentage (.724). And they had the benefit of half a season from Jamison and Haywood, both of whom did a better job on the defensive glass than anyone currently on the Wizards roster.

If you look at what players have done in the past and how playing time will likely be distributed, the Wizards look to be a very good offensive rebounding team -- probably in the neighborhood of 30-31% -- and a terrible defensive rebounding team (likely in the 68-70% range).

As for what NBA players "usually" do, it is relevant to the Wizards because they would need their players to buck long-established historical trends to get better. And, I don't believe the Wizards can get better with their current players performing at their historical norms. Guys weren't as good last season as you seem to think they were.

I think they need McGee to improve significantly in every facet of his game except shot blocking. I think Blatche needs to be far more efficient on offense and get better on the boards. Yi needs to perform better in every facet. I think Hinrich needs to get back to his 06-07 performance level for him to be a significant upgrade over what they had in the backcourt last season. I think Arenas will need to do more than score -- I'd like to see him get his PER back over 20 again.

Go down the roster -- I think everyone needs to be better than they were last year for the Wizards to make the playoffs. Wall improves them, but they need some people to step up to reach the wins range you're talking about.

[pancakes3]

first off, i'm doubtful as to the accuracy of nivek's dour drb% projection for next season. there are a ton of factors that are just unknowable. for one, you're replacing foye's 8% with wall's... x%, blatche's 13% with whatever his post-trade splits project his %'s to be for this season, and adjusting the numbers for minutes projected in Javale, Yi, Seraphin...

it seems like a gut feeling-type deal.

second off, like i said earlier, rebounding is correlated to winning CHAMPIONSHIPS. sure. not the playoffs though. the suns, the hawks, and the nuggets all had equal or worse drb%s as we did and ended up playoff-bound. heck, the suns went to the WCFs.

i'm not poo-pooing defensive rebounding. it's hella-important. however, things like 3 point shooting, ft shooting, creating turnovers on defense, and not turning the ball over on offense are also important. most teams have a flaw - ours is defensive rebounding. the spurs have spotty FT shooting. the Magic rely too much on jumpers. we're bad Drebounders. ok. however it's really not so bad to the point that it completely undermines the success of our team that we'll lose more than we'll win. i think our talent level is too overwhelming for that to happen. dagger.

also, if anyone else adds the caveat "if healthy" they can just go jump off a bridge. you can bet gamblers are scrambling to hedge their bets now after seeing wade go down with a tweaked hammy. every teams' success is banked on the health of their players. it's like saying, sure the lakers have a good chance of threepeating, as long as dr. buss doesn't liquidate their franchise and give all the money to scientology.

[Nivek]

pancakes -- I was basing Blatche's rebounding estimate on his post-trade performance. I estimated Wall's percentage based on what he did in college combined with what similar players have done since they entered the league. I estimated how many minutes guys would play based on what I think the rotation will be.

Also, I don't agree that the the Wizards have "a flaw," I think they have many flaws that will be exposed over the course of the season. I think it's theoretically possible for the players they currently have to address and correct those flaws. But I don't think enough of those flaws will be spackled over this season for them to be a playoff contender.

[no D in Hibachi]

i'm not poo-pooing defensive rebounding. it's hella-important. however, things like 3 point shooting, ft shooting, creating turnovers on defense, and not turning the ball over on offense are also important. most teams have a flaw - ours is defensive rebounding. the spurs have spotty FT shooting. the Magic rely too much on jumpers. we're bad Drebounders. ok. however it's really not so bad to the point that it completely undermines the success of our team that we'll lose more than we'll win. i think our talent level is too overwhelming for that to happen. dagger.

You bring up a good point that everyone has their weakness so objectively speaking which weaknesses are more manageable than others?

Ultimately I believe defensive rebounding is one of the worst deficiencies to have on a basketball team because it allows other teams weaknesses to be minimized. Orlando shoots too many jumpers, well, they are a good rebounding team so they'll get more opportunities to make these jumpers.

I guess there's no good stat to be bad at, but last season the top 5 teams in rebound percentage were: 1) Cleveland, 2) Memphis, 3) San Antonio, 4) Orlando, 5) Utah. The bottom 5 teams in rebound percentage were: 26) NO, 27) NY, 28) NJ, 29) Indiana, 30) GS. All top five teams except Memphis made the playoffs and all bottom five teams were terrible. There is no question the Wiz need to improve their rebounding if they want to make the playoffs this season.

[pancakes3]

pancakes -- I was basing Blatche's rebounding estimate on his post-trade performance. I estimated Wall's percentage based on what he did in college combined with what similar players have done since they entered the league. I estimated how many minutes guys would play based on what I think the rotation will be.

if you really did crunch the numbers then kudos to you. it's a lot of stat-work to do, especially just as a layman working off nothing but b-r.com. it seemed off-the-cuff because the 68-72 flew out pretty quick, and looks historically bad.

what other flaws do you see? wall's TOs? defense/production at the sf spot? javale's foul propensity?

i dunno, it just seems like this season we're really nitpicking at all of our faults. there was more optimism last season for (imo) a worse team. this season i guess we're once bitten (probably more) and twice (probably more) shy.


also, no-d, where'd you get your trb% numbers from?

[no D in Hibachi]

also, no-d, where'd you get your trb% numbers from?

espn.com/team stats/rebounds

Just watching the Bulls game right now the Wiz are just pathetic at rebounding. Asik is just stealing their dinner and their women out there. The thing that I see is the Wiz don't want to be good rebounders. It's like they have three guys blocking out Asik but they still don't get the board.

[closg00]

Can't rebound = no playoffs.

Just remember this^, people acting shocked that we weren't getting boards tonight against the Bulls, imagine if Boozer had been in the game. The Wiz needs to send Seraphin to the D_League for full-time play and bring him back mid-season.

[dangermouse]

I cant remember my season prediction number but i have a feeling it was 32. I dont think it is an impossible number. Yi's play has been encouraging, McGee has looked exactly as we thought he would. Blatche has picked up pretty much where he left off. Arenas just needs a fire lit underneath him or something, but im guessing regular season we will see a different story. Wall has been putting up comparable numbers to Chris Paul in his first few games, a few less rebounds so far but more blocks, its probably a bit early to tell, but I think he will have a similar impact to rookie Paul. I know its homerism and all that but we have ourselves a stud who will end up a top 5 PG in most peoples lists within like 3 years. He seems to effect the game just by being on the court, his speed, quickness and length are always there regardless of wether his shot is falling or wether hes seeing the floor and making assists. His shot was off in that Cle game and so far it doesnt seem to be much better in the Chi game, but once he becomes a legit outside threat we will have a weapon. A pass-first Wade. Maybe thats all wishful thinking, but anyway, no playoffs this year I dont think, but we should be back there sooner rather than later if we draft well again.

Im not sure about extending Yi, need to see how he goes in regular season action before we commit i would imagine.