Grade The Wizards Off-Season

[penbeast0]

This is premature, because the offseason isn't over, but as of now, I give it a C-

Good moves:

- Drafting Bradley Beal, who was BPA at #3
- Amnestied Blatche
- Hired Don Newman

Decent moves:

- Resigning Cartier Martin

Poor moves/remains to be seen:

- Trading Lewis and #46 for Okafor and Ariza
- Signing AJ Price
- Drafting T. Satoransky


All in all, the team went from a ~25 win team to a ~35 win team with the moves they made. I don't think they make the playoffs as currently constructed—there's simply not enough firepower nor shooting ability to win on a consistent basis. If they do win games, it'll be low-scoring/ugly affairs with scores in the 80's. The biggest disappointment is that Vesely and Booker now have to compete for minutes, and one of them will have to sit in order to play sorry ass Okafor. If they resign Singleton, then it moves back up to a C.

+1

TGW, I agree with everything you wrote, and your final grade of C-

--Seraphin's minutes will also be decreased due to Okafor on the roster. Unless Okafor comes off the bench or gets injured, Kevin cannot average the minutes he did when he had the string of double figure point games.

--What remains to be seen is how the Wizards' offseason compares relative to changes other teams have made:

Orlando has some different personnel and a new coach, plus Dwight Howard could be traded. Andrew Nicholson looks like the real deal to me. Charlotte has a veteran core now and a new coach, along with a dynamic rookie, Michael Kidd Gilchrist. The Knicks lost out on Linsanity, to include not just Jeremy Lin but also Landry Fields and Jared Jeffries. Philadelphia lost Louis Williams, the team leading scorer, and Elton Brand, their best interior defender. Nick Young and Kwame Brown are the replacements. Chicago won't have Derrick Rose until the all star break, and they lost Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer, Omer Asik, CJ Watson, and John Lucas III. I don't care how well Tom Thibodeau coaches, that defense and depth won't be the same this season. Chicago will win a lot less games. Boston has no more big three without Ray Allen, and both Pierce and Garnett will be one more year older. The Cs reloaded in the frontcourt and backcourt. Atlanta will have Horford back but no James Johnson. Rookie John Jenkins looks like a scorer for them. The Nets have made a whirlwind of changes but are any of them for the better? Joe Johnson is overpaid IMO.

My guess is some teams got worse and only a few got better. Washington just by having some continuity should win that extra 10 games this season. The question is where will the scoring in the clutch come from? I still don't see any superstar or any player on the Wizards who can step up at winning time.

A whole lot is riding on Nene and Okafor.

If John Wall doesn't step up to at least Rajon Rondo level, the rest is shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic (I don't see Beal as a guy who comes in and stars right away at his age and with his rather mediocre college performance last year for a top 3 pick). If he does, maybe we have the go to creator at clutch time. Nene and Okafor will be themselves if healthy; solid, not spectacular bigs. Our wings need to find some guys who can consistently hit open shots too (Beal's role) -- not just Jordan Crawford chucking.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Here's another "B"

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/blog/eye-o ... on-wizards

Although concludes Wizards are still not good and probably lottery bound. But seems pretty optimistic about the teams' change in culture, salary situation and future flexibility.

[Zonkerbl]

I'm still worried about Beal's three point shooting. That's what we need the most, but he shot poorly his freshman year and then shot poorly again during SL.

[LyricalRico]

Here's another "B"

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/blog/eye-o ... on-wizards

Although concludes Wizards are still not good and probably lottery bound. But seems pretty optimistic about the teams' change in culture, salary situation and future flexibility.

Who says there's no more good reporting/analysis?

[TGW]

Here's another "B"

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/blog/eye-o ... on-wizards

Although concludes Wizards are still not good and probably lottery bound. But seems pretty optimistic about the teams' change in culture, salary situation and future flexibility.

Who says there's no more good reporting/analysis?

You're clapping about an article that says the Wizards more than likely will still be in the lottery? Are your standards that low? Sheesh.

I would imagine that the season would be deemed a failure if the Wizards don't at least make the 8th seed, considering all the money they've blown adding vets this offseason. This article basically says just that...they got better but they still suck. If you're happy with that, then by all means, clap away. Just understand that if this article is accurate, the man in your avatar will get fired. That I will certainly clap to.

[DMVleGeND]

The fact that you guys turned from a lottery team to potentially a playoff team in one off-season, is commendable. Kudos to your FO, they seem like they're serious now about building around Wall. Also, don't be surprised if Beal ends up being the 2nd (or best) player in this draft. His upside is a more explosive, ball handling Ray Allen that can play defense and rebound. Let that sink in for a second.

Beal is not more explosive than prime Ray Allen.

Hence the use of the word "upside" as in "could get there someday." Of course, there's no harm in saying "he'll never get there." It's not like we're going to hire detectives to track you down in Paraguay when Beal makes the all-star team.

I'm not talking about overall game, I'm talking about athleticism. Right now, Beal is not more explosive than a prime Ray Allen. What I said is valid unless you think Beal can improve his athleticism to that point, but I highly doubt it'll happen.

[payitforward]

I don't understand giving the FO a high grade for this off-season.

1. Yes, Beal was a good pick. But he was also pretty much the consensus pick at #3. Credit for that is like giving them credit for picking John Wall #1 in 2010 -- something every GM would have done. No grade for picking Beal. Or call it a C for doing what was obvious.

2. This team has *no* young guys who we can say *with certainty* are outstanding player for the long haul. None. We have some maybes, that's all. Yet, we utterly blew round 2 of a one-time, depth-enhanced draft. That's an F.

3. Yes, amnestying Blatche was the right thing to do. But don't you want to take away some credit given the fact that we spent way too long believing in a guy who really never produced outside of one short stretch before the league had bothered to scout him? Don't you want to take away some credit for having given him a big raise when he hadn't earned it? Ted even admits it's what the team did. Hence gets a B-

4. Trading McGee for Nene (if you want to start the off-season there) got us a good player if he stays healthy. Right now he's not healthy. But what about the fact that we invested @ 4 years in a rookie whom we couldn't develop. Doesn't the failure w/ McGee somewhat detract from the goodness of the trade? Hence gets a B-

5. Failing to buy out Rashard. Why'd we acquire him? Did we know Gil would never play again? No. We acquired him *so that* we could shorten the then long set of future salary obligations. We acquired him so that we could buy him out. We didn't do it; instead we made a trade that lengthened the obligations right back to where they were. Gets a D.

6. Acquiring Ariza (independent of the non-buyout). Ariza is sub-par for a starting 3 and on the downhill side of his career. How does he help build the team to contend? He doesn't. How is he worth taking on $15m of salary obligation? He's not. Gets a C- (at least he's likely better than Chris Singleton).

7. Acquiring Okafor. Assuming that we really want him for one season only, i.e. to trade him before next year, why didn't we wait to see who would appear on the amnesty waiver wire. At this point in the team's development, is he a greater help to us than e.g. Elton Brand? No. He just costs $12m more this year and is owed $14m next year. Yes, buying out Rashard and then signing Brand would have added $2m this year. But it would have subtracted $12m next year. And Brand was only one option. Gets a D.

8. Signing A.J. Price. Oh please -- why didn't we target e.g. Patty Mills? Why don't we want to build our talent base? Price was about to fall out of the league when we caught him in mid-air. D.

9. Re-signing Cartier Martin -- ok, fine. B.

10. Failing to re-sign James Singleton, and then targeting Anthony Tolliver to save what, $750K? Even if we get him, it's a D. If he returns to the form of 2 seasons ago, it's a little better, maybe a C-.

11. Hiring Don Newman -- the fact that some of you are giving a grade to hiring an assistant coach is a good indication of how pathetic we have become. Sorry, no grade.

Overall, a step backward not forward, in team development. And if Nene misses significant time... a disaster.

[montestewart]

^
Good summary payitforward, or at least one that matches my own leanings. I could see Okafor grading higher through his own contributions and/or a good trade later sending him out, but I could see Nene grading much lower if he's $50 million worth of chronic injuries. Blatche amnesty is to me as obvious as the Beal pick, but at least they didn't blow it.

[closg00]

Counter argument

Good, bad, ugly of NBA offseason

The Bad
Washington Wizards
Yes, I'm back for another round. (See Round 1 here.) I'll make it brief: Now that we know the end-game for the other free agents, the pre-draft trade for Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza looks even worse. Given that the Wizards waived Andray Blatche with their amnesty, they would have had enough cap room to sign a wing stopper/shooter such as Brandon Rush or Courtney Lee, bid on a real power forward such as Elton Brand or Luis Scola in their amnesty auctions, and have somewhere close to max cap space next summer. Instead, they'll win a similar number of games with a much more limited future, thanks to the two cap-clogging deals they acquired in June.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8224707/good-bad-ugly-2012-nba-offseason
Part 1.

The good news for Washington Wizards fans is that general manager Ernie Grunfeld is building a winner. The bad news is that he's doing it in Minnesota and New Orleans.

Seriously, can anyone explain why this guy is still running a basketball team?

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs ... on-wizards

[payitforward]

The good news for Washington Wizards fans is that general manager Ernie Grunfeld is building a winner. The bad news is that he's doing it in Minnesota and New Orleans.

Seriously, can anyone explain why this guy is still running a basketball team?

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs ... on-wizards

Yup, Hollinger asked the right question.

Note that the two guys I wanted at 32 and 46 have both been signed to 3-year deals with the first year guaranteed -- by teams that in better shape than we are (even the Magic, yes): Crowder with Dallas and O'Quinn w/ Orlando.

Of course, some day Tomas ("I was surprised by how high I was picked") Satoransky may play in the NBA. He really may. Some day. Maybe.

[TGW]

Counter argument

Good, bad, ugly of NBA offseason

The Bad
Washington Wizards
Yes, I'm back for another round. (See Round 1 here.) I'll make it brief: Now that we know the end-game for the other free agents, the pre-draft trade for Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza looks even worse. Given that the Wizards waived Andray Blatche with their amnesty, they would have had enough cap room to sign a wing stopper/shooter such as Brandon Rush or Courtney Lee, bid on a real power forward such as Elton Brand or Luis Scola in their amnesty auctions, and have somewhere close to max cap space next summer. Instead, they'll win a similar number of games with a much more limited future, thanks to the two cap-clogging deals they acquired in June.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8224707/good-bad-ugly-2012-nba-offseason
Part 1.

The good news for Washington Wizards fans is that general manager Ernie Grunfeld is building a winner. The bad news is that he's doing it in Minnesota and New Orleans.

Seriously, can anyone explain why this guy is still running a basketball team?

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs ... on-wizards

Wow...that was just rough. I feel even worse after reading this, although I agree with pretty much 100%. Cap flexibility > panic move for mediocre vets.

I'm still sticking to 35 wins, but after reading this piece from Hollinger...sheesh. I wonder just how happy Ted would be with this grade.

[badinage]

They could have had Courtney Lee, huh?

Like, the Celtics and three other teams would not have been more attractive to him than a team still trying to create an identity and assemble a core. Like the fact we had just drafted a 2 in Beal would not have weighed heavily in that decision.

And he is both a stopper AND a shooter?

I love this Scola line, too. We could have bid on Scola. Or Brand. Could have bid. Which means: could have been denied that bid. Actually, we likely would have been denied that bid.

As if we need what either brings.

As if either is a clear improvement over a defense-playing center, which is what we got in Okafor, and a small forward who actually is something of a stopper.

Hollinger is for s h i t, and I'm disappointed that so many on here are so quick to embrace this kind of "reasoning," this placing of faith in what-ifs that will never be.

[Nivek]

I love this Scola line, too. We could have bid on Scola. Or Brand. Could have bid. Which means: could have been denied that bid. Actually, we likely would have been denied that bid.

High bid in the amnesty draft gets the player. Wiz could not have been "denied" if they were high bidder.

Dallas got Brand for $2.1 million.

[badinage]

I love this Scola line, too. We could have bid on Scola. Or Brand. Could have bid. Which means: could have been denied that bid. Actually, we likely would have been denied that bid.

High bid in the amnesty draft gets the player. Wiz could not have been "denied" if they were high bidder.

Dallas got Brand for $2.1 million.

Thanks for the explanation, Kev.

But that doesn't change my essential point. Brand, even on a cheap contract, wouldn't interest me. We have Nene, we have Booker, we have Vesely. He's not better than Nene, and I want to see Vesely develop. Scola I like more, but same problem as a PF.

And had we added either, the cries of sacrificing the rebuild and abandoning the OKC model, etc., would have been fierce.

The Lee thing is hilarious. But typical.

And this business about not having a future -- also hilarious. Two years, is what we're talking about.
And those two year rentals of Okafor and Ariza are meant, as far as I understand the plan, to further the development of Wall and Beal. You know, the team's youth -- its would-be stars and anchors. If you have two young, dynamic stars -- a PG and a wing -- then you have a future, no matter what else you don't have. If Wall blossoms and Beal looks really good by next year, I don't think it will simply be because they somehow just made the leap.

[Nivek]

Brand on a cheap contract for one year interests me more than two expensive years of Okafor and Ariza. He's a better player than either of them, and would have served as a bridge/security blanket for a year while still leaving the Wiz with major cap room next offseason.

As I've posted a few times, my preferred offseason would have involved: buyout Lewis; amnesty Blatche; draft Beal; draft Crowder; draft Denmon; get Brand in the amnesty draft; outbid the Spurs on Danny Green; outbid Atlanta on Lou Williams.

Wiz would have still had $8-9 million in cap room next offseason, plus solid young players on reasonable contracts.

Had the Wizards made these moves, I think the team would have a brighter future than they do now. They'd have brought in two young veterans who could be part of the rotation immediately, and for the next several years. They'd have given themselves a chance to "get lucky" with a couple extremely productive college players who are both terrific people. They'd have brought in a frontcourt veteran on a one-year rental to give the Wiz frontcourt youngsters another year to develop. And they'd have preserved cap flexibility to acquire other players in 2013.

And the team would have contended for the playoffs this season.

[DCZards]

And those two year rentals of Okafor and Ariza are meant, as far as I understand the plan, to further the development of Wall and Beal. You know, the team's youth -- its would-be stars and anchors. If you have two young, dynamic stars -- a PG and a wing -- then you have a future, no matter what else you don't have. If Wall blossoms and Beal looks really good by next year, I don't think it will simply be because they somehow just made the leap.

Agreed. Being around smart, unselfish players like Nene, Okafor and Ariza will both further the development of youngins' like Wall, Beal, Ves and Seraphin and take the pressure off of them, especially Wall, to be team leaders. A team with vets like Okafor and Nene will be led--and play--very differently than a team with a "vet" core of Blatche, McGee and Young.

[badinage]

Brand on a cheap contract for one year interests me more than two expensive years of Okafor and Ariza. He's a better player than either of them, and would have served as a bridge/security blanket for a year while still leaving the Wiz with major cap room next offseason.

As I've posted a few times, my preferred offseason would have involved: buyout Lewis; amnesty Blatche; draft Beal; draft Crowder; draft Denmon; get Brand in the amnesty draft; outbid the Spurs on Danny Green; outbid Atlanta on Lou Williams.

Wiz would have still had $8-9 million in cap room next offseason, plus solid young players on reasonable contracts.

Had the Wizards made these moves, I think the team would have a brighter future than they do now. They'd have brought in two young veterans who could be part of the rotation immediately, and for the next several years. They'd have given themselves a chance to "get lucky" with a couple extremely productive college players who are both terrific people. They'd have brought in a frontcourt veteran on a one-year rental to give the Wiz frontcourt youngsters another year to develop. And they'd have preserved cap flexibility to acquire other players in 2013.

And the team would have contended for the playoffs this season.

No guarantee those moves would've meant playoffs.

My preferred offseason would have been to trade anyone other than Wall for Dwight Howard. I think that team would've had a very bright future.

Didn't happen. I choose not to carp that it didn't happen, and that this team has no vision, and that it's the same thing year after year. There are many routes to success. If I'm going to be a fan, I choose to be hopeful about this rebuild -- until the time comes, if it comes, that management has not done the right thing. It's paralytic, at least it is for me, to root for a team and not, um, actually root. The Germans must have a word for that.

Denmon and Crowder. Yeah, I guess. That was the board's consensus. But 2nd rounders don't often bear fruit. And it's very rare you get a difference-maker. Would I have liked to have had them? Probably.

Danny Green. One of these guys, these Spurs guys, who looks better playing with great players and in a great structure. You say you would have outbid the Spurs for him. I don't think the Spurs would have allowed themselves to be outbid. But ok. So let's say 6 million a year for DANNY GREEN.

I think it's possible Lou Williams might've come here. Possible. Not likely. But possible. IF we had ponied up 8 million. 8 million for a shot-jacker who isn't "efficient" and doesn't play D.

That's 14 million for two very incomplete players.

A lot of money.

And it wouldn't have come off the books in two years, I can tell you that.

As for Brand, he might've been had cheap, true. But he plays the same position as THREE players. And he's a shell of himself.

These moves would've saved some caproom for next year. To spend on what? Not a max contract player, certainly. And none is going to be available -- or I should say, no one who is available is going to be worth one. So a rotation player or maybe slightly better. Not a difference maker. And maybe the chance of absorbing a contract in a trade: another rotation player.

I don't see how this is so superior to what the team did. I don't even see how this is better than what the team did. I honestly don't.

I'll give you different, and I would've liked taking a flier on a couple of young'uns who might have developed into something, with time.

[Ruzious]

I love this Scola line, too. We could have bid on Scola. Or Brand. Could have bid. Which means: could have been denied that bid. Actually, we likely would have been denied that bid.

High bid in the amnesty draft gets the player. Wiz could not have been "denied" if they were high bidder.

Dallas got Brand for $2.1 million.

Easily the biggest bargain of the offseason. While Brand isn't as effective a scorer as he used to be, he's still enough of a threat to draw double teams, and he's still a truly underrated defensive big. On the Philly forum, I've read defensive studies quoted that showed him as one the top handful of interior defenders in the NBA.

[DCZards]

Brand on a cheap contract for one year interests me more than two expensive years of Okafor and Ariza. He's a better player than either of them, and would have served as a bridge/security blanket for a year while still leaving the Wiz with major cap room next offseason.

I've always been a big fan of Brand--hails from Peekskill, NY where I have plenty of family. I would have been all over Brand--5-6 years ago.

I don't agree that the 2012 version of Brand (at age 33) is better than the 2012 version of Okafor (at age 30). In Okafor, I believe the Wizards got a tougher, more defensive-minded player than Brand. As for the difference in money, I personally don't get hung up on that since it may just be for one-year--two at the most.

And I'm definitely not worried about missing out on a decent-but-nothing-special player like Danny Green (I prefer to give those minutes to C. Singleton, anyway) or the one-dimensionsal Lou Williams, who Jordan Crawford may turn out to be as good or better than.

[Nivek]

No guarantee those moves would've meant playoffs.

No guarantee the moves they made mean playoffs.

My preferred offseason would have been to trade anyone other than Wall for Dwight Howard. I think that team would've had a very bright future.

I was trying to stay in the realm of reality. I guess if we're going to be silly about it, my preferred offseason would have been to trade for Lebron and clone Kareem to play center.

Didn't happen. I choose not to carp that it didn't happen, and that this team has no vision, and that it's the same thing year after year. There are many routes to success. If I'm going to be a fan, I choose to be hopeful about this rebuild -- until the time comes, if it comes, that management has not done the right thing. It's paralytic, at least it is for me, to root for a team and not, um, actually root. The Germans must have a word for that.

I HOPE management has done the right thing. I HOPE I'm wrong. My analysis says they're on the wrong course. That may make me less of a fan in your eyes, but if I try real hard I might be able to shoulder that burden.

Denmon and Crowder. Yeah, I guess. That was the board's consensus. But 2nd rounders don't often bear fruit. And it's very rare you get a difference-maker. Would I have liked to have had them? Probably.

Yeah -- everyone here knows 2nd rounders often don't bear fruit. I'd have liked to take a shot with these guys.

Danny Green. One of these guys, these Spurs guys, who looks better playing with great players and in a great structure. You say you would have outbid the Spurs for him. I don't think the Spurs would have allowed themselves to be outbid. But ok. So let's say 6 million a year for DANNY GREEN.

Actually, the Spurs regularly let themselves get outbid on guys. It w

I think it's possible Lou Williams might've come here. Possible. Not likely. But possible. IF we had ponied up 8 million. 8 million for a shot-jacker who isn't "efficient" and doesn't play D.

That's 14 million for two very incomplete players.

A lot of money.

And it wouldn't have come off the books in two years, I can tell you that.

It wouldn't have cost that much for Green and Williams. Williams signed for 3 years at the MLE. Green signed for $4 million per season. Both were worth considerably more than they got. Wiz probably could have had both for $10-11 million.

And yeah, I'd have rather paid $14 million a season for those two than $20.8 million this season and $22.3 million next year for two incomplete players who aren't getting any better.

And Williams is efficient and high usage.

As for Brand, he might've been had cheap, true. But he plays the same position as THREE players. And he's a shell of himself.

Shell or not, he was good last season. Well above average. Better than Okafor. Better than Okafor was 2 years ago.

These moves would've saved some caproom for next year. To spend on what? Not a max contract player, certainly. And none is going to be available -- or I should say, no one who is available is going to be worth one. So a rotation player or maybe slightly better. Not a difference maker. And maybe the chance of absorbing a contract in a trade: another rotation player.

Hmm, maybe the team could have used that cap space in a trade.

I don't see how this is so superior to what the team did. I don't even see how this is better than what the team did. I honestly don't.

I could go through the numbers and make a case, but somehow I think it would be wasted effort.

Agree to disagree, I guess.