(Post SL Pre Season) Who would you have drafted in 2012?

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Oh yeah, after SL I would of drafted they same as before SL... Beal and Doron Lamb.

[DCZards]

You expect this based on what? On his performance in college? Not as good as Green's. On his performance in the league? Not good so far; what about it makes your crystal .

What makes you believe Green had a better college career than Singleton--a two-time ACC defensive player of the year? Certainly not their college stats.

[Ed Wood]

Well yes, the stats might accomodate such a belief. Singleton was a better rebounder in college, as you'd expect given the size difference and that he played power forward, but otherwise it's hard to see where exactly he outstrips Green. Neither scored at an incredible rate but you'd much rather have scoring the way Green was doing it; he enjoyed an advantage in TS of over 8 percentage points when averaging the final two seasons each spent in college and that significant difference emerges in comparisons of PER (16.7/22.0 for Singleton, 24.2/24.6 for Gren) and remains significant in the more heavily efficiency based WS40 (7.7/9.6 vs 11.4/11.3). Green also managed a higher rate of blocks and steals, which is sometimes used as a quick and dirty estimate of a player's athleticism, an in area Singleton would be expected to have a clear advantage.

And also Singleton totally blew last year. It's not fair to draw definite conclusions from that based on his inexperience and the circumstances but he was really, really unimpressive.

[DCZards]

Green had the luxury of playing with several future NBA players. He was basically a role player on those UNC teams. Singleton was in a very different situation. He was asked to do more and score more for FSU. So it makes sense that Green would have better "efficiency" stats.

[Ed Wood]

Absolutely it would, and while I had (and retain) a certain fondness for Green as a collegian and for the idea of Green as an NBA futures commodity it wasn't an egregious error that he wasn't taken all that seriously as a prospect. Nevertheless, Green demonstrated in college and has demonstrated in the NBA that he is capable of providing real value to an NBA team, and would be particularly welcome on a team so bereft of shooting and of competent wings generally as the Wizards, whereas Singleton has not (yet) in the NBA and arguably didn't in college.

Singleton may have been a larger part of his college team but that isn't license to ignore the fact that he wasn't a very effective college player until the final year of his college career, and even then only really excellent due to his defensive reputation and applying a liberal curve because no one ever really looks good in Leonard Hamilton's offense.

I largely recuse myself on the subject of Green because I thought more than most of him in college and I'd like to see him continue to succeed so as to feel vindicated for doing so. Singleton's body of work in college, however, to me, best fits a narrative in which he learned to outperform his competition as he gained experience rather than as a result of superior talent, and form a purely prognostic perspective significant improvement late in the game as a collegiate generally does not bode well for a strong NBA career (a cautionary parallel might be drawn to Al Thornton, who I think Singleton can manage to better, low bar as that is).

[Dat2U]

I don't think the Wizards would have been able to outbid Illyasova- while the Bucks were able to agree to a reasonable contract- no one is sure how much their willingness to pay was- maybe the Bucks decides to match up to $13 million a year.

Milwaukee didn't have the right to match. IIyasova was an unrestricted free agent.

[miller31time]

Just for posterity sake...

3. Beal (Loved the pick; I think he's a great pairing with Wall at point)
32. Lamb (Wanted a sharp-shooting guard off the bench)
46. Denmon (At this stage, I would have gone with someone who could really surprise)

[Nivek]

Haven't we already had this Danny Green vs. Chris Singleton conversation? In my analysis, Green was indeed the better college player. Role player or not, Green's usage was comparable to Singleton's, but Green was just better at making the ball go in the basket. Singleton was the better rebounder; Green was as good or better in every other statistical category -- even when looking at it in terms of each player's share of his own team's production in that category.

Playing with talented players is a push/pull on the stats. On one hand, it can benefit because there's a shared workload and because there are talented players who can convert passes into scores, draw defensive attention, etc. On the other hand, there are only so many "numbers" to go around. Only one guy can get an assist on a basket; only one guy can get a rebound; only one guy can get a steal on that particular possession.

Playing with less talented teammates also has its push/pull. There's less fraternal competition for stats, but there's also the problem of not as many guys to share the workload and/or draw attention from the opposition.

In my analysis, Green was significantly underrated coming out of college. Singleton was a good college player, who I had rated at about the spot where the Wizards got him. That said, he was terrible as a rookie. Like virtually any young player, he has the potential to be a good player if he works hard enough and smart enough.

[Zonkerbl]

Booker had problems his rookie year too, it took him awhile to figure out how much force he was allowed to apply and when, same problem Ves is having.

Singleton will be fine. Defensively at least.

[Nivek]

Booker had problems his rookie year too, it took him awhile to figure out how much force he was allowed to apply and when, same problem Ves is having.

Booker was WAY better as a rookie than Singleton was. No comparison, not close. Booker was extremely low usage -- Singleton went even lower, but was far less efficient (118 ortg for Booker vs. 97 for Singleton). Chalking that up to "rookie struggles" obscures how much work Singleton needs to do.

Singleton will be fine. Defensively at least.

I'm hoping Singleton will be fine. He has a lot of work to do, though.

[Kanyewest]

I still wonder if Singleton would have done better in spot minutes on a team with more depth. I think Singleton may have been pushed to far to the forefront given that he only had to outplay Lewis. Still, what I've seen so far is that he has a long way to go.

[FAH1223]

I know Ruzious would have me fired, but had I had any inkling of the Bobcats drafting MKG, I would have tried to trade up and would have offered any player outside of Wall or Nene (hopefully Craw?) to do so, maybe even as much as protected future 1st.

I had MKG on a tier by himself, below Davis and above Beal. I like Beal but I absolutely loved MKG and I think he will be a multiple all-star and a big time winner. I also think MKG is one of those rare guys to make his teammates better, not just in the games but in practice and off the court as well. He's going define the culture and push the rest of the team to work harder.

2. MKG
32. Doron Lamb (based on what I saw in summer league - would have drafted Q Miller before).
48. Kyle O'Quinn (would have drafted Marcus Denmon prior but he's too similar to Lamb IMO).

I would have bought out Shart. Amnestied Blatche. Traded Booker/Singleton or for a S&T with Ryan Anderson and hopefully would have created enough salary space (by trading Craw, Booker & Singleton to sign Lou Williams as well.

Wall, MKG, Nene, Anderson, Williams & Seraphin would be the core. That a strong six IMO. A very strong six (and fairly young outside of Nene) with a nice mix of offense & defense. Vesely, Lamb, J.Singleton & C. Martin would fill out the rest of the rotation.

That would have been the perfect offseason for us.

[theboomking]

I'm still torn on Beal vs MKG, and am happy with the Beal pick. However, if pinned down I would probably have chosen to trade up twice for:

2.MKG
20. John Jenkins

Jenkins is a better shooter and scorer than Beal, and MKG, Wall, Nene, Seraphin, et al, should be able to cover defensively for Jenkins.

[DCZards]

I'm still torn on Beal vs MKG, and am happy with the Beal pick. However, if pinned down I would probably have chosen to trade up twice for:

2.MKG
20. John Jenkins

Jenkins is a better shooter and scorer than Beal, and MKG, Wall, Nene, Seraphin, et al, should be able to cover defensively for Jenkins.

I agree that right now Jenkins looks like a better shooter than Beal but I doubt that he's the better scorer. Between the two of them, Beal looks like the better all-around offensive talent.

[theboomking]

I'm still torn on Beal vs MKG, and am happy with the Beal pick. However, if pinned down I would probably have chosen to trade up twice for:

2.MKG
20. John Jenkins

Jenkins is a better shooter and scorer than Beal, and MKG, Wall, Nene, Seraphin, et al, should be able to cover defensively for Jenkins.

I agree that right now Jenkins looks like a better shooter than Beal but I doubt that he's the better scorer. Between the two of them, Beal looks like the better all-around offensive talent.

o be clear, I think Beal is the better player. He will probably rebound, pass and defend better, and is also probably a better penetrator.

I don't like Jenkins better than Beal, but I do really like the combination of MKG, Wall, and Jenkins.

[payitforward]

I'm still torn on Beal vs MKG, and am happy with the Beal pick. However, if pinned down I would probably have chosen to trade up twice for:

2.MKG
20. John Jenkins

Jenkins is a better shooter and scorer than Beal, and MKG, Wall, Nene, Seraphin, et al, should be able to cover defensively for Jenkins.

I agree that right now Jenkins looks like a better shooter than Beal but I doubt that he's the better scorer. Between the two of them, Beal looks like the better all-around offensive talent.

o be clear, I think Beal is the better player. He will probably rebound, pass and defend better, and is also probably a better penetrator.

I don't like Jenkins better than Beal, but I do really like the combination of MKG, Wall, and Jenkins.

Jenkins came out after 4 years in college. Beal after his freshman year. Can't compare them.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

pif, I agree with your point. In fact, Jenkins played three years at Vandy.

Nonetheless, the point is he is two years older and a lot more of a finished product than Beal. I believe Beal in three years is the player we hope is very special.

[closg00]

We all missed on Kyle O'Quinn.

[DCZards]

We all missed on Kyle O'Quinn.

Yeah, big men from HBCU's often get overlooked but some of them turn out to be great NBA players--including Ben Wallace, Charles Oakley and Rick Mahorn. All of whom, like O'Quinn, played their college ball in Va.

[theboomking]

I agree that right now Jenkins looks like a better shooter than Beal but I doubt that he's the better scorer. Between the two of them, Beal looks like the better all-around offensive talent.

o be clear, I think Beal is the better player. He will probably rebound, pass and defend better, and is also probably a better penetrator.

I don't like Jenkins better than Beal, but I do really like the combination of MKG, Wall, and Jenkins.

Jenkins came out after 4 years in college. Beal after his freshman year. Can't compare them.

Didn't Jenkins come out as a junior? As a freshman, John Jenkins scored 19.9ppg on .474 from the field, .439 from 3 and .837 from the line. His freshmen TS% was .65. Jenkins had sophomore and junior TS% of .64 and .66 respectively. Jenkins is pretty clearly the better shooter, and to date has been the better scorer. I stand by my analysis. Beal will be the better player, but isn't the pure shooter that Jenkins is. Again, I would rather have Beal, and I liked the pick. I just also like Jenkins a lot, especially as a pick in the 20's and as a complement to Wall.
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