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"The Tank is superstrong!" The Official Fire Ernie Watch

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Re: Hoping for failure 

Post#41 » by Higga » Tue Nov 6, 2012 6:31 pm

Illuminaire wrote:I would be content to be a 2nd-tier contender. You know, the kind that routinely hits 50 wins, grabs the 2-4th seed, and has a puncher's chance of making it to the finals every year. Think prime Suns from a few years back, Chicago with a healthy Rose, etc...

I wouldn't mind not winning a championship. Only one team does that each year. I do mind not having a reasonable shot, even a slim one, at ever making it to a Finals in the first place. Sorry, but when .500 and a first round exit is the high bar for our success, I'm just not down with the status quo.



I'd honestly be okay with this too. At least give me some meaningful basketball in late May. Give me a team that can make the Conference Semis/Conference Finals every year and at least have a chance.
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Re: Hoping for failure 

Post#42 » by Nivek » Tue Nov 6, 2012 6:36 pm

Me too. Which is again part of the frustration with the team making moves designed to get them to MAYBE 41 wins if a lot of stuff works out for them.
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Re: Hoping for failure 

Post#43 » by closg00 » Tue Nov 6, 2012 8:49 pm

Higga wrote:
Illuminaire wrote:I would be content to be a 2nd-tier contender. You know, the kind that routinely hits 50 wins, grabs the 2-4th seed, and has a puncher's chance of making it to the finals every year. Think prime Suns from a few years back, Chicago with a healthy Rose, etc...

I wouldn't mind not winning a championship. Only one team does that each year. I do mind not having a reasonable shot, even a slim one, at ever making it to a Finals in the first place. Sorry, but when .500 and a first round exit is the high bar for our success, I'm just not down with the status quo.



I'd honestly be okay with this too. At least give me some meaningful basketball in late May. Give me a team that can make the Conference Semis/Conference Finals every year and at least have a chance.


Agree, I think the board would be thrilled just to reach the level of say the Grizzlies.
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Re: Hoping for failure 

Post#44 » by DMVleGeND » Tue Nov 6, 2012 11:20 pm

closg00 wrote:
Higga wrote:
Illuminaire wrote:I would be content to be a 2nd-tier contender. You know, the kind that routinely hits 50 wins, grabs the 2-4th seed, and has a puncher's chance of making it to the finals every year. Think prime Suns from a few years back, Chicago with a healthy Rose, etc...

I wouldn't mind not winning a championship. Only one team does that each year. I do mind not having a reasonable shot, even a slim one, at ever making it to a Finals in the first place. Sorry, but when .500 and a first round exit is the high bar for our success, I'm just not down with the status quo.



I'd honestly be okay with this too. At least give me some meaningful basketball in late May. Give me a team that can make the Conference Semis/Conference Finals every year and at least have a chance.


Agree, I think the board would be thrilled just to reach the level of say the Grizzlies.


Would I be happy if we eventually reached Grizzlies level? Yes, but that shouldn't be the goal. As a GM, you always need to aspire for a championship, and fans should feel the same way. Sadly, I think Ernie only wants to make this team "competitive" and just cares about keeping his job. :-?

And the Grizzlies have improved a lot over the past few yrs, but they haven't even gotten past the 2nd round yet. Would definitely want this team to be more successful.
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Re: Hoping for failure 

Post#45 » by fishercob » Fri Nov 9, 2012 2:33 pm

OK, I've figured out what I want.

I want Wall and Nene to come back and for the Wizards to start winning. I want Okafor and Ariza to get buried on the bench because other guys are playing better. I want Brand, Scola and other amnestied guys and/or cheap vets to play well. I want Ted to understand the opportunity cost of that stupid trade. I want him to be so embarrassed that he wrote this that he cans Ernie Grunfeld. This is what I am hoping for.

Wizards Make a Clever Trade
Posted on June 20, 2012
We added two vets to our team today in exchange for a late second round pick and a player who we were intending to buy out.



All in all, we will enter next season with possibly nine players on their rookie contract, as we have two picks in this coming draft – a high first and a high second round pick.



We will now have the opportunity to surround the young players with five to six seasoned vets. We added Nene last season, and now we have added Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza. All three will play in our rotation next season and are experienced, tough and talented. They are “team first” in attitude kinds of players that have had championship successes – one in college (UConn) and one in the pro ranks (Lakers).



They are all high character people as well and provide us a deep front line. They will also be able to mentor our young players in a positive fashion – and they are all happy to be in DC!



I also am happy that we were able to add these two players because their coming to our team is guaranteed, while playing free agency is a bit more of an unknown outcome. In free agency, you can bid on and recruit players, but since they are unrestricted free agents, they can choose to go wherever they feel is best for their careers and their family life. And to sign them, you must make a long term commitment that could affect your team in the out years of their deals.



These two new players are not signed for the long term – so we can manage our team, retain players and add players in the mid to long term the right way. We still have the draft coming up – and I bet we have some more moves to make before next season.



Stay tuned.
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Re: Hoping for failure 

Post#46 » by tontoz » Fri Nov 9, 2012 2:51 pm

Very productive players? Both guys are probably the 3rd best options at their positions assuming everyone is healthy.

Just goes to show that being an expert in business doesn't make him an expert in basketball.
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Re: Hoping for failure 

Post#47 » by closg00 » Sat Nov 10, 2012 2:45 am

Joining the bandwagon. How bad can it get before Nene and Wall get back? Ernie cannot fire a 3rd coach and Ted won't fire Ernie so-early in the season so what's next?
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Re: Hoping for failure 

Post#48 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Sat Nov 10, 2012 4:30 am

fishercob wrote:OK, I've figured out what I want.

I want Wall and Nene to come back and for the Wizards to start winning. I want Okafor and Ariza to get buried on the bench because other guys are playing better. I want Brand, Scola and other amnestied guys and/or cheap vets to play well. I want Ted to understand the opportunity cost of that stupid trade. I want him to be so embarrassed that he wrote this that he cans Ernie Grunfeld. This is what I am hoping for. ...


fisher, what I want is for Ted to do something totally unprecedented in the history of sports. I want him to hire a guy off the street as a consultant. I want him to let me help him because I know I could. I think about as out-of-the-box as possible. I've got an online resume. Dude can go back years and years and years and see if what I've said generally hasn't checked out.

I could turn the Wizards season completely around in approximately 7 steps, this season.

Washington can be in the playoffs this season. They've started 0-4. They will need 39 to 42 wins. As improbable as it sounds, this team could go 39-39 from here out if they made the right lineup changes, two or three moves, and one or two trade.

fisher, watching this year after year gets old. For now, I hope they fail and Ted sells the team to someone sharper than he is; or that he recognize people who do know how to get it done. Ernie Grunfeld is not the answer, unless the question is what the hell is wrong with Ted Leonsis and the Wizards.

All the Wizards need to do is make the playoffs and have a roster that is moving in the right direction. The one thing EG has is a roster with parts that can be tweaked in trades. A trade can help immensely. This team is already much better defensively. Playmaking and closing are lacking, and some dead weight is on the roster. Moves that need to be made can be done with or without John Wall and Nene.

I wish the Wizards owner had a clue. Ted isn't that sharp as long as he's aligned with Ernie Grunfeld.
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Re: Hoping for failure 

Post#49 » by willbcocks » Sat Nov 10, 2012 4:34 am

montestewart wrote:
Illuminaire wrote:I think the most tragic part of the Okariza deal is that it is most likely to land us in a fuzzy middleground where we don't suck enough for Ted to have a clear cut reason to fire EG.... and we aren't good enough to compete for anything either.

Cue Dat2U's head exploding in flames


I doubt it--he, like many of us, didn't think the trade would make us any better than before. The Nene trade was the one that could make us compete too soon, as he's actually a good player.
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Re: Hoping for failure 

Post#50 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Sun Nov 11, 2012 8:49 pm

(Moved to the Ernie Grunfeld Watch Thread.)


8-)

monte, I think 11/13/12 and 11/14/12 are the two days the Wizards need to take one for the team. Lose, and hopefully Ernie gets canned.

I truly hope for failure this next two games.

The Wizards will still have seventy-five games moving forward to go another direction.
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Re: Hoping for failure 

Post#51 » by montestewart » Sun Nov 11, 2012 9:55 pm

7/11/13 will probably be the date Beal is injured in Summer League, setting up EG's 2013-14 excuse.
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Re: Hoping for failure 

Post#52 » by The Consiglieri » Tue Nov 13, 2012 6:48 am

All in for the tank. With the hole that will be dug sans Wall and Nene in November (probably a 2-4 win start through 18+ games), the hole will be far too big for a sub .500 team to begin with to overcome. As such I want a full on tank.

Problem is, if the team is healthy, it simply won't be bad enough to get enough ping pong balls. If Nene and Wall come back good to go, and the rest of the kids stay healthy, the team should win 20-25 of its last 62 or so games, meaning it will have a pre-lottery slot somewhere between 3rd and 8th. That should be enough to get EG canned, but who really knows? As another poster who also loves the caps mentioned, Ted doesnt seem to like firing GM's, he's had two in about 14 years of owning the caps and boulez. Unlike my family poster I actually like GMGM and think he's earned his gig via expertly sustaining the rebuild with quality draft after quality draft (only '05, '08, and '11 have been subpar since 2002, and there have been multiple blue chip big time steals outside of the blue chip zone since the scouting department was overhauled nearly a decade ago). Sure, I don't like that the team has failed to sniff a conference final let alone a stanley cup, but i do think GMGM has built a great team that was capable of making the run, at the end of the day bad breaks, a lack of mental toughness, goalkeeping, discipline and coaching cost the team. Very few of those things are on the GM in my view.

He designs the foundation and development program and the tweaks, he's consistently addressed the issues, and unfortunately breaks haven't gone the team's way, that's not remotely like the wizards, where the foundation was falling apart in '09, and instead of making wise choices, EG attempted a quick fix where he got hosed in epic fashion in '09, forced a pick in '11 that now was obviously stupid (as many others argued, though not me (in fairness I wanted a trade up)), then made a horrendous quick fix trade yet again in '12. These decisions are idiotic on their face and totally unjustifiable. Unlike with GMGM, there isn't any argument that supports EG's continued presence.And i say this as someone who made excuses for EG for years because by and large i thought he was a much, much better drafter than boulez GM's in the '85-'04 era who were largely totally horrendous despite oodles of assets on draft day to utilize for rebuilding purposes. However, if '09 seriously damaged my faith in EG as a team builder, the '11-'12 debacles clinched it. Having him around after gun gate and especially now is simply unacceptable. The team must tank for the greater good, period.
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Re: Hoping for failure 

Post#53 » by nate33 » Tue Nov 13, 2012 12:57 pm

The Consiglieri wrote:If Nene and Wall come back good to go, and the rest of the kids stay healthy, the team should win 20-25 of its last 62 or so games

If Wall and Nene are healthy, I expect to team to play better than that. I think it'll be more like 30-34 wins in the last 62 games.
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Re: Hoping for failure 

Post#54 » by LyricalRico » Tue Nov 13, 2012 4:10 pm

^ Yep, and even if they went 4-16 in the first 20, they'd still finish with a win total in the high 30's - which would be a significant step forward IMO. And then they'll be set to take another step forward next season with the continued development of Wall/Beal/Seraphin and anything they can get in a trade with their expirings.

Way too early for folks to be giving up. Way too early.
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Re: Hoping for failure 

Post#55 » by cwb3 » Tue Nov 13, 2012 7:03 pm

I know they are 0-5 right now. I've watched the last 3 games start to finish. They are a much more enjoyable team to watch than in the prior 2 seasons. They seem to defend better, rotate better, fewer total bonehead plays. The offense still struggles to get good shots in motion. Still more 1 on 1 and struggling to get open shots. But now and then you can see a little bit of on court chemistry develop. Like what I have seen from Booker so far this year. And Okafor looks better the past 2 games. Did not see the first 2 where apparantly he and Ariza were terrable. This team does seem to play hard and try hard. Lacking in true talent until Wall and Nene get back, but at least they are not an eyesore or an embarrisment. Small consolation yes, but its enough to keep me tuned in.

Also watched a bit of the Mavs/Bobcats game a couple days back. . .Charlotte looks better this year, or at least did that one game I saw.
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Re: Hoping for failure 

Post#56 » by payitforward » Tue Nov 13, 2012 10:10 pm

LyricalRico wrote:^ Yep, and even if they went 4-16 in the first 20, they'd still finish with a win total in the high 30's - which would be a significant step forward IMO. And then they'll be set to take another step forward next season with the continued development of Wall/Beal/Seraphin and anything they can get in a trade with their expirings.

Way too early for folks to be giving up. Way too early.

I really don't want to seem like I'm challenging you -- except insofar as you just made a judgement on others here but didn't back it up w/ either reasoning or data. Hence...

What does "giving up" mean? And why would a win total in the high 30's be a significant step forward for a team that added $20+ million in salary? And how many years in a row do you expect "continued development" from players (w/ what empirical evidence to support the expectation?

Given that Wall led us to 14-46 last year before Nene and, ahem, James Singleton (who played like a superstar for the time he was with us then wasn't brought back) led us to wins over other teams back bench players, what would make you think that getting Wall and Nene back will move us suddenly from a team that so far can't win even one game to a .500 team?
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Re: Hoping for failure 

Post#57 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Tue Nov 13, 2012 11:36 pm

cwb3 wrote:I know they are 0-5 right now. I've watched the last 3 games start to finish. They are a much more enjoyable team to watch than in the prior 2 seasons. They seem to defend better, rotate better, fewer total bonehead plays. The offense still struggles to get good shots in motion. Still more 1 on 1 and struggling to get open shots. But now and then you can see a little bit of on court chemistry develop. Like what I have seen from Booker so far this year. And Okafor looks better the past 2 games. Did not see the first 2 where apparantly he and Ariza were terrable. This team does seem to play hard and try hard. Lacking in true talent until Wall and Nene get back, but at least they are not an eyesore or an embarrisment. Small consolation yes, but its enough to keep me tuned in.

Also watched a bit of the Mavs/Bobcats game a couple days back. . .Charlotte looks better this year, or at least did that one game I saw.


cwb3, I agree with you. They don't have the personnel right now, but they're playing good basketball IMO.

I think Okafor is a good player, not great. Washington is undersized inside with Okafor at C, and Booker at PF. Unfortunately, that duo doesn't score a bunch and exploit what should be quickness advantages. I think some of that is on the guards for not feeding the post more, but Price has been pretty good. Ariza is an average player who is just overpaid, IMO. He impacts the game defensively occasionally. He's a streaky (bad) three-point shooter. He is a very good passer. His energy seems to wane at times. If Ariza were a higher motor player, he'd be good. I'm just disappointed at his salary and that his lack of offense can hurt a team. When those are your core players besides rookie Beal, and replacement player, A. J. Price, the team is going to struggle. This team lacks closers. Crawford is the only guy on the team that can get his shot off any time he wants (and he's been surprisingly not terrible this season). I think they've done pretty well, considering the injuries.

I think they would probably win with a lineup like Price, Webster, Ariza, Singleton, and Seraphin. That said, I'm all in for the tank.
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Re: Hoping for failure 

Post#58 » by LyricalRico » Tue Nov 13, 2012 11:42 pm

payitforward wrote:What does "giving up" mean?


Ummm...the title of this thread is "Hoping for Failure". If that's not giving up on the season, I don't know what is. :D

And we've discussed the other stuff over and over in other threads. We happen to disagree on the direction of the team, and that's cool. Let's see how the season plays out.

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Re: Hoping for failure 

Post#59 » by willbcocks » Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:34 am

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
cwb3 wrote:I know they are 0-5 right now. I've watched the last 3 games start to finish. They are a much more enjoyable team to watch than in the prior 2 seasons. They seem to defend better, rotate better, fewer total bonehead plays. The offense still struggles to get good shots in motion. Still more 1 on 1 and struggling to get open shots. But now and then you can see a little bit of on court chemistry develop. Like what I have seen from Booker so far this year. And Okafor looks better the past 2 games. Did not see the first 2 where apparantly he and Ariza were terrable. This team does seem to play hard and try hard. Lacking in true talent until Wall and Nene get back, but at least they are not an eyesore or an embarrisment. Small consolation yes, but its enough to keep me tuned in.

Also watched a bit of the Mavs/Bobcats game a couple days back. . .Charlotte looks better this year, or at least did that one game I saw.


cwb3, I agree with you. They don't have the personnel right now, but they're playing good basketball IMO.

I think Okafor is a good player, not great. Washington is undersized inside with Okafor at C, and Booker at PF. Unfortunately, that duo doesn't score a bunch and exploit what should be quickness advantages. I think some of that is on the guards for not feeding the post more, but Price has been pretty good. Ariza is an average player who is just overpaid, IMO. He impacts the game defensively occasionally. He's a streaky (bad) three-point shooter. He is a very good passer. His energy seems to wane at times. If Ariza were a higher motor player, he'd be good. I'm just disappointed at his salary and that his lack of offense can hurt a team. When those are your core players besides rookie Beal, and replacement player, A. J. Price, the team is going to struggle. This team lacks closers. Crawford is the only guy on the team that can get his shot off any time he wants (and he's been surprisingly not terrible this season). I think they've done pretty well, considering the injuries.

I think they would probably win with a lineup like Price, Webster, Ariza, Singleton, and Seraphin. That said, I'm all in for the tank.


I don't think they'll win much with that lineup. I don't think they'll win much with ANY lineup right now.

The team lacks anyone who can command a double team in a way that benefits the team. Seraphin can command one, but he doesn't have the court awareness (yet) to use them to the team's advantage.

The only way our pg can free anyone up is through the pick and roll, but he's not a threat to go around his guy. Consequently we never get "roll" baskets, only "pick and pop" baskets. But we don't have great shooters, and this takes our offensive rebounders out of the key. Pargo, our backup, is the worst pg in the world.

Aside from low-percentage jumpers from our bigs, other common shots we're getting are contested long jumpers at the end of the shot clock and shots thrown up from 5-10 feet when guys drive but can't get all the way to the basket. These shots are terrible. And they generate no free throws--we've got to be at a historic low FT shooting rate right now.

The only good shots we are getting are when we keep the ball moving and someone gets a 3 pointer/mid-range jumper in rhythm. These don't happen frequently enough and aren't high percentage enough.

Until we get someone (Wall/Nene) who can make a positive difference on offense, Whitman can do no wrong in my eyes, as there is no lineup that I think he can win with.
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Re: Hoping for failure 

Post#60 » by TGW » Wed Nov 14, 2012 1:18 am

LyricalRico wrote:
payitforward wrote:What does "giving up" mean?


Let's see how the season plays out.

Go Wiz!


0-6

By the way, there's no "hoping" necessary. Failure is inevitable.
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