2013 NBA Draft Lottery Thread

[BruceO]

top three protected for next year? that means no randle, wiggins or parker? no thanks. I wait to see if beyond those three the rest are as good as advertised because these are the players who've lost twice in a row or even more to the world select team.

[stevemcqueen1]

If we can swap a top 3 pick this year for a top 3 protected next year, would you?

Well, who is the other team though? A lottery team?

Right now my instinct is no, but maybe.

[Ruzious]

If we can swap a top 3 pick this year for a top 3 protected next year, would you?

No. Is there someone(s) in particular you want to target?

I'm hoping for the 3rd pick tonight - don't want to be too greedy.

[stevemcqueen1]

If we can swap a top 3 pick this year for a top 3 protected next year, would you?

If we can draft OP, I wouldn't pass on that for an at best 4th pick next year.

Do we really know about the depth of the draft next year?
Wiggins and Parker, then ? I honestly don't know. So I'm asking.

If it was for the 4th pick I would do it without hesitation. Next year's class will probably have at least five guys in it that could have gone first this year. Though it feels like Parker might not go one and done. You would still have Wiggins, Randle, Gordon, the Harrison Twins, Wayne Selden, Noah Vonleh, Hezonja, Exum, and James Young most likely.

Plus some of the sophomores could make a leap to elite status like Smart, McGary, Tarczseqiswizki (sp?), Cauley-Stein, Gary Harris, GRIII, etc.

Really though the stars of next year's group are Wiggins, Randle, and Gordon. There isn't a doubt in my mind that if they were eligible this year, they would go 1, 2, and 3. Actually, those guys would probably go 1, 2, and 3 in almost any draft class. They're franchise caliber talents.

Andrew Harrison and Noah Vonleh could probably go #1 this year too. Both are really good players. I watched a bunch of the AS games this year to peep the 2014 class and they are unbelievably athletic. Their athleticism and ball handling ability is just on an entirely different level from any body in this year's class. Aaron Gordon at PF is a better ball handler than most of the lotto pick guards this year.

Kansas, Arizona, Duke, and Kentucky are just going to be an incredible display of future NBA talent next season.

[nate33]

If we can swap a top 3 pick this year for a top 3 protected next year, would you?

I would swap a top 3 pick for a pick in the 4-6 range next year, but that seems like a difficult trade to pull off. The problem is, by using our #3 pick, they could add an NBA-ready guy like Burke, Porter or Oladipo (in addition to whatever lotto talent they add with their own pick). That much talent is likely to keep them out of the bottom 6 next year.

[nate33]

I figure the #3 pick gets us Porter, Bennett or a trade for Kanter. At #8, we're looking at McCullom or one of the decent-but-not-great bigs (Olynyk, Len, Adams, Dieng).

[pancakes3]

If we can swap a top 3 pick this year for a top 3 protected next year, would you?

No. Is there someone(s) in particular you want to target?

I'm hoping for the 3rd pick tonight - don't want to be too greedy.

Any number guys in the next draft can help us but I was hoping for that long-elusive PF to round out our roster. Jabari Parker would be ideal, but there are another 2-3 blue chippers in that draft that can be had in the top 10.

But then again, Zeller was praised universally as well and his nits have been thoroughly picked and now sits at the fringe of top 10 territory. Top 3 protected seems... less and less favorable at this point.

[pancakes3]

If we can swap a top 3 pick this year for a top 3 protected next year, would you?

I would swap a top 3 pick for a pick in the 4-6 range next year, but that seems like a difficult trade to pull off. The problem is, by using our #3 pick, they could add an NBA-ready guy like Burke, Porter or Oladipo (in addition to whatever lotto talent they add with their own pick). That much talent is likely to keep them out of the bottom 6 next year.

Yeah, that's a decent point. Adding 2 lotto picks this season would buoy a lot of teams. I think Orlando wins a ton more games next season, as will Minny. Maybe Toronto's a team that's beyond saving?

[nate33]

If we can swap a top 3 pick this year for a top 3 protected next year, would you?

I would swap a top 3 pick for a pick in the 4-6 range next year, but that seems like a difficult trade to pull off. The problem is, by using our #3 pick, they could add an NBA-ready guy like Burke, Porter or Oladipo (in addition to whatever lotto talent they add with their own pick). That much talent is likely to keep them out of the bottom 6 next year.

Yeah, that's a decent point. Adding 2 lotto picks this season would buoy a lot of teams. I think Orlando wins a ton more games next season, as will Minny. Maybe Toronto's a team that's beyond saving?

Nah. Toronto should be half-decent as long as Valanciunas continues to improve. Their problem isn't that they suck horribly. It's that they suck horribly relative to their payroll. But even so, a $75M payroll like that is likely to eek out 35 wins at least and get them a pick in the early teens.

[Zonkerbl]

Someone update the OP



Don't worry guys. We have an 0.1% chance of dropping to 11. Never say never!!

Uhhhhh.

I don't get this chart.

Once someone wins the draft, they essentially take that team's lotto combos out of the box (well, they put the numbers back in and pick, but if the winning team's combo comes in again they ignore it). So, you can't really know what your chances of winning the second pick are. And how can your probability of winning the second pick, given that you didn't win the first pick, be smaller? And... and... wth?

Am I just dumb? Should I give my statistics degree back?

Who calculated these numbers? Where's the methodology?

[mg]

I figure the #3 pick gets us Porter, Bennett or a trade for Kanter. At #8, we're looking at McCullom or one of the decent-but-not-great bigs (Olynyk, Len, Adams, Dieng).

I honestly don't see Utah dealing Kanter even for the #1 pick. I could see several teams offer their lotto pick to Utah (Charlotte, Cle, Portland and the Wiz come to mind) but highly doubt Utah would consider it. Some poster on the Charlotte board had a similar trade idea for Kanter but got quickly shot down by the Jazz fans.

[AFM]

Zonkerbl, I got that table from here: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nba/ne ... e-bobcats/

[Nivek]

Uhhhhh.

I don't get this chart.

Once someone wins the draft, they essentially take that team's lotto combos out of the box (well, they put the numbers back in and pick, but if the winning team's combo comes in again they ignore it). So, you can't really know what your chances of winning the second pick are. And how can your probability of winning the second pick, given that you didn't win the first pick, be smaller? And... and... wth?

Am I just dumb? Should I give my statistics degree back?

Who calculated these numbers? Where's the methodology?

You might be right. This may just be a "beginning state odds" chart. Say the team with the worst record gets the #1 pick. Their remaining balls no longer count in the odds. They can't get the 2nd pick too. The difficulty with calculating those odds is that you'd have to calculate them for every possible outcome for each of the first three picks. That's a lot of math.

Put that statistics degree to work and give us the real odds, dammit!

[Zonkerbl]

Bah, nevermind, I remembered how it works on the bike ride home.

For the second pick, you multiply the odds of not having won the first pick times the sum of the odds of winning the second pick given one of the other teams won the first pick. Yeah yeah. I did the math once and then promptly lost the spreadsheet and forgot how to do it.

So that means I'm wrong -- you do in fact just add up probabilities horizontally on the chart. So the zards chances of getting a top 3 pick are in fact 3.5+4.1+4.8 = 12.something.

[nuposse04]

I ran realgm's lotto simulator

1. wiz
2. Det
3. Phx

I find that impossible to believe, a team with a non top 3 worse record not picking in the top 3.

[sfam]

For some reason I'm feelin #9. If this happens, whoever is picked #8 will become an all star.

[truwizfan4evr]

Comon wizards move up in the draft!

[FAH1223]

Young Beal looks to have gained weight lol

[nuposse04]

ESPN thinks karma is on our side. We're picking 10th, ****.

[queridiculo]

Between ESPN pimping us and my one and only lottery simulation coming back with pick no. 9 we're pretty much ****.

The real lulz will be Detroit winning the lottery. Yet again foiled by a flipped coin.

Btw, I'm so **** sick of that Cavaliers owner son dork.