Wizards 2nd Half Predictions

[payitforward]

Getting to 3 games over 0.500 would mean being +5 over 30 games.

Neither of these things is possible. We can be 2 over or 4 over. To be 4 over, we have to go 18-12 the rest of the way. Sorry, not going to happen.

I think the Wizards end up as the 4th seed. ...

7th seed looks a lot more likely than 4th.

Right now Brooklyn is exactly 1/2 game behind us. And they've gained on us consistently for the last 15 or so games. They're quite likely to end up ahead of us. Our best hope for 6th is that Atlanta continue to slide. The Bulls are playing better than we are lately.

Falling out of the playoffs is almost inconceivable, but it's not out of the question that we wind up in the 8th spot.

[deneem4]

Wall realizes he as good as other top players and average 23/4/10/2 for the rest of the season..
nene gets traded
We go into playoffs as 4th seed vs Toronto and beat them in 5

Lets see... Toronto is 3 games ahead of us. Toronto is 6-4 in their last 10, while we're 4-6. Toronto has a better record vs. the conference and a much better record vs. the division than we do. Toronto is on a 2-game winning streak, and we're on a 2-game losing streak.

So it's obvious we'll speed right by them? Assume for a moment they go 15-15 the rest of the way. We have to go 19-11 to get past them into 4th place. You think there's some chance we'll do that?

Get real.

Our schedule been hell the last 10 games....
Toronto team is inconsistent as it gets...Kyle Lowry will most likely be traded
I see us losing maybe only 11 games
we can go 19 and

[payitforward]

Toronto team is inconsistent as it gets...Kyle Lowry will most likely be traded
I see us losing maybe only 11 games
we can go 19 and

I think they might get something back in a Lowry trade... don't you?

Still, they may fade some -- and actually my assumption of 15-15 would be a fade for them.

As to us going 19-11... that would be great. But what's our best 10 game split this season? Do we have even one 7-3 10-game split? No.

But before our last 4-6 split, we were 6-4 for 3 10-game splits in a row -- 18-12. That's close to 19-11. So all you have to do is ignore the data you don't like and we're... better than if you include that data!

But still not likely to go 19-11 unfortunately.

[Rafael122]

The Wizards have 6 games left this month, they could easily win all 6 if they stop playing down to the competition. But I have them going 4-2 the rest of the way leaving them with a 29-29 mark to end February.

March - it includes a trip out West...I'd say they go 10-6 leaving them with a 39-35 record at the end of March.

April - they could go anywhere from 6-2 or even 7-1 to 4-4. Again, it just depends on how they play against weaker competition. I'll go 5-3, 44-38...6th seed, facing Toronto.

I read on Twitter the Wiz have one of the more easier schedules remaining. Just look at the April schedule, 2 games against current .500 or over teams. 1 of which is against the Heat who will probably rest their starters at that point.

BTW, losses against the Bucks, Philly, Cleveland (2x), Minnesota, those hurt now that I sit back and think about it. You win half those games against sub .500 teams and you're probably closer to 50 wins rather than 45.

[Dat2U]

Wall realizes he as good as other top players and average 23/4/10/2 for the rest of the season..
nene gets traded
We go into playoffs as 4th seed vs Toronto and beat them in 5

Lets see... Toronto is 3 games ahead of us. Toronto is 6-4 in their last 10, while we're 4-6. Toronto has a better record vs. the conference and a much better record vs. the division than we do. Toronto is on a 2-game winning streak, and we're on a 2-game losing streak.

So it's obvious we'll speed right by them? Assume for a moment they go 15-15 the rest of the way. We have to go 19-11 to get past them into 4th place. You think there's some chance we'll do that?

Get real.

Well considering Toronto is still thinking about blowing things up, anything is possible. Also were talking about two mediocre teams right here. It's a fragile framework that's gotten both around the .500 mark. IMO it doesn't take much to send either on a downward spiral and alternatively, both teams are probably one player away from being slightly better than mediocre.

If Toronto trades for Jeff Teague, I think there's a chance we catch them. Teague isn't on Lowry's level IMO. Also, if we add a respectable backup PG that replaces Temple, that's a significant upgrade in it's self to propel us a bit closer to the Raps.

[Dat2U]

On the other hand, the Wizards are very fortunate to have remained healthy all season. Out of a possible 312 player-games, our top 6 players have missed a total of just 23 games. And 9 of those games missed were by our worst player in the top 6: Beal. Our top 5 players have missed just 16 out of 260 player-games.

This is what I didn't account for. Good health. I really didn't expect us to basically be injury free, especially with Wittman's proclivity to run his guys into the ground.

I've been waiting for the other shoe to drop with Nene, it hasn't happened yet.

Webster is playing hurt... and it's affecting his performance, but he's barely missed any actual time.

As long as guys stay healthy, were going to hang around .500.

[Nivek]

If Toronto makes a tanking trade, then obviously things change. Who knows, they might double-tank and make a trade with the Wizards.

But, if rosters stay largely as they are, there's no reason to think things will change significantly in the last 30 games. It would take staggering collapse for the Wizards to miss the playoffs from this point. It would take a major change for Toronto to slide back enough for Washington to catch them for 3rd. I see Brooklyn, Washington, Atlanta and Chicago in a dogfight for 4-7.

Three seed looks fanciful to me. Four certainly looks very plausible, but then so does 7th. If the Wiz get an injury or two, 8th isn't out of the question either. Most likely, the Wizards last 30 games will look a lot like their first 52 and they'll end up 5th or 6th.

[Dat2U]

If Toronto makes a tanking trade, then obviously things change. Who knows, they might double-tank and make a trade with the Wizards.

But, if rosters stay largely as they are, there's no reason to think things will change significantly in the last 30 games. It would take staggering collapse for the Wizards to miss the playoffs from this point. It would take a major change for Toronto to slide back enough for Washington to catch them for 3rd. I see Brooklyn, Washington, Atlanta and Chicago in a dogfight for 4-7.

Three seed looks fanciful to me. Four certainly looks very plausible, but then so does 7th. If the Wiz get an injury or two, 8th isn't out of the question either. Most likely, the Wizards last 30 games will look a lot like their first 52 and they'll end up 5th or 6th.

3 games out of the 9th seed at the all-star break doesn't seem like a staggering collapse to me. Unlikely but think it's possible. With Cleveland, Detroit & NY all not tanking, its really going to be race to the finish over the 30 games or so. If one or two of those teams get hot, a 4 or 5 game losing streak could have us on the outside looking in.

[Nivek]

They have a 5-game lead on Cleveland and New York. To blow a 5-game lead with 30 games to play and miss the playoffs completely would be a staggering collapse to me. Detroit is different -- just 3 games back with 30 to play. But, man...if they can't hold off NYK and CLE over 30 games while starting with a 5-game lead...I don't know how that could be characterized as anything but a MASSIVE organization-wide failure.

[FAH1223]

They have a 5-game lead on Cleveland and New York. To blow a 5-game lead with 30 games to play and miss the playoffs completely would be a staggering collapse to me. Detroit is different -- just 3 games back with 30 to play. But, man...if they can't hold off NYK and CLE over 30 games while starting with a 5-game lead...I don't know how that could be characterized as anything but a MASSIVE organization-wide failure.

It'd be very Wizards like and would be perfect for the future. Changes would surely happen.

[AFM]

Let's look at our remaining opponents:

18-Feb Tor L
19-Feb @Atl W
22-Feb NO W
23-Feb @Cle W
25-Feb Orl W
27-Feb @Tor L
1-Mar @Phi W
3-Mar Mem L
5-Mar Utah W
8-Mar @Mil W
10-Mar @Mia L
12-Mar Char W
14-Mar @Orl W
15-Mar Brook L
18-Mar @Sac W
20-Mar @Port L
21-Mar @LAL W
23-Mar @Den W
26-Mar Pho L
28-Mar Ind L
29-Mar Atl L
31-Mar @Cha W
2-Apr Bos W
4-Apr @NY W
5-Apr Chi L
9-Apr Char W
11-Apr @Orl W
12-Apr Mil W
14-Apr Mia L
16-Apr @Bos W

I think our schedule is way easier in the 2nd half. I apologize for the formatting, I did this in excel and it didn't carry over. Anyway, I have us splitting games against ATL, losing to pretty much any team universally considered better than us (PHX, MIA, IND, MEM, TOR 2x), and even losing to CHI and BKLN which I believe are winnable. Seems like a fair assessment since I bet we win some games against "elite" teams as we tend to do and drop a few clunkers against CLE or ORL.
Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but theres no reason we can't go 19-11.
Feel free to drop your own predicitons.

[Rafael122]

Let's look at our remaining opponents:

18-Feb Tor L
19-Feb @Atl W
22-Feb NO W
23-Feb @Cle W
25-Feb Orl W
27-Feb @Tor L
1-Mar @Phi W
3-Mar Mem L
5-Mar Utah W
8-Mar @Mil W
10-Mar @Mia L
12-Mar Char W
14-Mar @Orl W
15-Mar Brook L
18-Mar @Sac W
20-Mar @Port L
21-Mar @LAL W
23-Mar @Den W
26-Mar Pho L
28-Mar Ind L
29-Mar Atl L
31-Mar @Cha W
2-Apr Bos W
4-Apr @NY W
5-Apr Chi L
9-Apr Char W
11-Apr @Orl W
12-Apr Mil W
14-Apr Mia L
16-Apr @Bos W

I think our schedule is way easier in the 2nd half. I apologize for the formatting, I did this in excel and it didn't carry over. Anyway, I have us splitting games against ATL, losing to pretty much any team universally considered better than us (PHX, MIA, IND, MEM, TOR 2x), and even losing to CHI and BKLN which I believe are winnable. Seems like a fair assessment since I bet we win some games against "elite" teams as we tend to do and drop a few clunkers against CLE or ORL.
Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but theres no reason we can't go 19-11.
Feel free to drop your own predicitons.

Yeah I think I came to that 19-11 mark as well. Wizards played through the toughest part of their schedule already.

[Nivek]

I just ran some simulations of the remaining schedule. It does look easier, and 18-12 looks possible. BUT, I count 15 coin flip games -- where the Wizards' odds of winning are between 45% and 55%.

And, it would require believing the Wizards -- who have been basically a .500 team since Wall came back from injury last season -- to suddenly sustain a .600 winning percentage over a two-month period.

Although, if the Wizards actually do go 18-12 to finish out the season, they'd finish with 43 wins. Which happens to be exactly what I projected before the season.

[AFM]

Kevin you know we have a tendency to turn it up at the end of the season and break some hearts with false hope. We're like the girl who rubs your inner thigh when you're talking to her at a club but she goes home with someone else

[Nivek]

Kevin you know we have a tendency to turn it up at the end of the season and break some hearts with false hope. We're like the girl who rubs your inner thigh when you're talking to her at a club but she goes home with someone else

Kinda-sorta. Under Grunfeld, the Wizards have actually been at their best in January. They've been better, but still bad in April. February and March have been pretty rough. Their worst month under Grunfeld October/November.

[AFM]

Kevin you know we have a tendency to turn it up at the end of the season and break some hearts with false hope. We're like the girl who rubs your inner thigh when you're talking to her at a club but she goes home with someone else

Kinda-sorta. Under Grunfeld, the Wizards have actually been at their best in January. They've been better, but still bad in April. February and March have been pretty rough. Their worst month under Grunfeld October/November.

I was referring more to last year when we went on that tear and hands kept bumping the "playoffs - drink the kool aid thread"
Not gonna lie, almost made a believer out of me too.

[doclinkin]

Wall at 2:50:

"Over the break, the main thing I've been talking to Brad about is that we both have to be more aggressive in attacking the basket, we settle for too many long twos"


http://www.nba.com/wizards/video/channe ... post-.nba/


Ding-ding-ding!! He gets it. Let's see if this actually translates for the two of them.


I'm actually encouraged by the fact that they've talked about this, looking forward to seeing how differently they play after the break.

this is the most exciting quote Ive read in a long time. However, Wall takes alot of blame after bad games and says he needs to do such & such better but still ends up settling so Ill believe it when I see it but still, this AS weekend had to boost their confidence to the next level. Bottom line is that if Wall/Beal drive more and mix it up then we are a totally different team

I've said elsewhere but I think John Wall's profile being elevated after the ASG, and especially the dunk contest, leads to him getting more respect from refs with regard to whistles when attacking the hoop. Fans want to see the dunk contest champ do something special. In the past his speed has worked against him inasmuch as refs chasing the action have to guess whether he was fouled or was merely out of control on his full speed attack at the basket. Being a blur in motion can work against you.

Now though, a ready whistle may give him the benefit of the doubt, protecting the fans' interests who pay good $ to see players do spectacular things. Mike Lee of the Post says John holds back on a ton of razzle dazzle showtime moves that he could do because he knows the criticism that would follow if he missed one. But with a bit of good pub and a liiiiiitle more room to maneuver --due to fouls on opponents-- he may feed the beast somewhat just to get the crowd on his side, even in away games.

All that will feed his desire to attack, and ability to do so: being rewarded with whistles, points, fouling out big men, and even somewhat hearing to "ohhhh" of opposing fans as well as our own..

[daSwami]

Kevin you know we have a tendency to turn it up at the end of the season and break some hearts with false hope. We're like the girl who rubs your inner thigh when you're talking to her at a club but she goes home with someone else

Ah but you've forgotten to factor in the ol' "false hope" paradox.

What if false hope is the fuel that powers those late-season runs, and real hope has the opposite effect?

[deneem4]

Our 2 top players gained a huge amount of confidence over allstar break...
I see Ball wanting to show off for the fans more now....which means attacking and dunking at least 5 times a game...If he can at least do that I see us being a 650.pct team...that's really the only thing stopping us from being better...

we have to attack and get to the line...not just nene but we need our backcourt to penetrate as well...it has a lot to do with nene and gortat clogging lanes and sittinf in the paint but at the same time...wall isn't forcing the issue...i jus hope after winning the dunk contest he'll flash his abilities more...

[hands11]

The Wizards have 6 games left this month, they could easily win all 6 if they stop playing down to the competition. But I have them going 4-2 the rest of the way leaving them with a 29-29 mark to end February.

March - it includes a trip out West...I'd say they go 10-6 leaving them with a 39-35 record at the end of March.

April - they could go anywhere from 6-2 or even 7-1 to 4-4. Again, it just depends on how they play against weaker competition. I'll go 5-3, 44-38...6th seed, facing Toronto.

I read on Twitter the Wiz have one of the more easier schedules remaining. Just look at the April schedule, 2 games against current .500 or over teams. 1 of which is against the Heat who will probably rest their starters at that point.

BTW, losses against the Bucks, Philly, Cleveland (2x), Minnesota, those hurt now that I sit back and think about it. You win half those games against sub .500 teams and you're probably closer to 50 wins rather than 45.

The weak home stretch schedule and team in heavy tank mode is what had more predicting for 48 wins. I over looked Randy's slow to learn the right mix coaching which has me behind my target right now.

Its all up in the air still. They could get hot. They could add the right extra marginal pieces. Randy could get his head out of his rss. Or they could end around .500

All starts tonight against TOR. Big game. First post AS game for Wall. Hopefully he starts the game off driving more. If he does, I think they can get on a roll.