GT #78: Bobcats (39-38) @ Wizards (40-37) 7 PM CSN (4/9/14)

[rockymac52]

Rockymac, that maybe true but what are Chi & Tor stats against those J's? The bottom line is this system sucks, its made even worse by Witt starting Book or Nene along with Gortat so there is no spacing, and all of this is scarily actually what Witt wants. He doesnt get upset about it. He wants our long 2's. Also, where did you find those jumpers stats? I would love to look at them

Good point. These stats are all from Synergy. Not sure if the midrange jumper stats are available to the non-paying public. As for how the other teams stack up against midrange jumpers:

Bulls: 35.3% (most in NBA) (5th best efficiency)
Raptors: 31.2% (16th most in NBA) (9th best efficiency)
Nets: 32.1% (14th most in NBA) (19th best efficiency)

So, if this theory had any legs to begin with, it would definitely also apply to the Bulls (even more so). Less so for the Raptors, and especially the Nets, but neither is really all that weak defending midrange jumpers to an extent that it would help us.

[dlts20]

did you guys see this thread on the general board? click on the chart. Look how many of our guys are back there. Wall, Beal, Web, Gooden, Temple, and Im sure Ariza is probably in there somewhere also. I hate this system and coach

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1314306&p=39218235#p39218235

[Zonkerbl]

Ariza doesn't take long twos.

[Zonkerbl]

Actually what might be more interesting is to drop attempts and somehow replace it with fg%.

[dlts20]

i saw you respond in the gen thread. Did you find Web, Good, Temple?

[Zonkerbl]

i saw you respond in the gen thread. Did you find Web, Good, Temple?

Yeah, everyone but Ariza.

[nate33]

The Wizards are in love with the midrange jumper. 40.9% of their jumpers are considered midrange by Synergy (defined as between 17 feet from the basket and the 3 point line, AKA long 2s). That is the highest rate of midrange jumpers in the entire NBA. To make matters worse, the Wizards are only the 24th most efficient team on midrange jumpers. It's an inherently inefficient shot, that the Wizards are even more inefficient than most other NBA teams at, yet we still attempt more of these shots than any other team in the league. It's very troublesome, no matter who our opponent is.

This quote should be in the HOF. It perfectly encapsulates the profound ineptitude of Wittman. It's one thing to feature the long 2 in a league where everyone else is abandoning it if you happen to have the personnel to do it; but it's criminally stupid to feature the long 2 on a team who is terrible at shooting it.

Seriously, somebody needs to email this to Ted. Something has got to be done.

[rockymac52]

The Wizards are in love with the midrange jumper. 40.9% of their jumpers are considered midrange by Synergy (defined as between 17 feet from the basket and the 3 point line, AKA long 2s). That is the highest rate of midrange jumpers in the entire NBA. To make matters worse, the Wizards are only the 24th most efficient team on midrange jumpers. It's an inherently inefficient shot, that the Wizards are even more inefficient than most other NBA teams at, yet we still attempt more of these shots than any other team in the league. It's very troublesome, no matter who our opponent is.

This quote should be in the HOF. It perfectly encapsulates the profound ineptitude of Wittman. It's one thing to feature the long 2 in a league where everyone else is abandoning it if you happen to have the personnel to do it; but it's criminally stupid to feature the long 2 on a team who is terrible at shooting it.

Seriously, somebody needs to email this to Ted. Something has got to be done.

I'm sure he's well aware. I read an article or two about this over the last month or so.

Here's one of them: http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/ ... take-that/

Wittman quote from that article:

“You take open shots. You take open shots. Where they are is dictated by what the defense does. If you predicate what kind of shot you’re going to take not based on what you’re doing reading the defense, you’re not going to get good shots. I just worry about goods shots.

You know what? Those numbers you can stick… alright? You know, all you analytical people that take that… You take good shots, that’s the most important thing. Maybe we’re not taking good midrange shots, maybe we’re taking contested ones. I understand the numbers are there for a reason, we look at the numbers, but to sit there and… We got a good, open shot we’re taking, I don’t care where it is.”

I agree with Wittman that the best shot is always an open shot. But his entire argument/defense seems to be based on the notion that we're only taking more midrange jumpers because we keep getting open looks there. I can't say for sure whether that's true, but if it is, then that's even more troublesome, because despite getting more open looks from midrange jumpers than the rest of the league, our players STILL manage a very low efficiency.

[nate33]

Furthermore, ALL defenses are "giving up" the 2-point shot in order to deny shots at the rim and behind the arc, so why is it that the Wizards are the only ones capitulating to defensive pressure and allowing opposing defenses to dictate things? It's a baloney excuse. It's like saying the reason we don't win is because other teams aren't letting us win. Of course they're not! It's a given that other teams will try to make things hard on you.

[payitforward]

Good thinking...

or this.

CHA jumps IND while they are down.. http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400489777
Wiz take down CHI - http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400489431, http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400489458

MIA beats ATL
BRK beats TOR

Round 2
Wiz vs BRK
MIA vs CHA

Round 3
Wiz vs MIA

No matter what happens, Miami will play the Winner of the 4/5 seed, not the lowest seed possible.

As long as we are playing this game...

Round 2
WAS vs CHA
BRK vs MIA

WAS beats CHA http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?id=400489381

BRK beats MIA (they are 3-0 against Miami this season)

Round 3
WAS beats BRK - Wizards are 3-0 against BRK this season

Round 4
WAS beats OKC http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?id=400489571

Even better. Thanks.

SO WAS vs OKC for the finals. Wizards win..

DURANT COMES TO DC 2016

DYNASTY IS BORN

Nice!

Then again, if we are a championship team why do we need Durant? In fact, given how important you think "chemistry" is, why would we want him?

Oh, and one more question -- if we win the title, will you say that Wittman is a good coach?

Gotta watch out about those fantasies -- they get you blowing in the wind....

[payitforward]

I note that this championship fantasy depends on us losing to the Bobcats at home. Wow! Imagine how good we'd be if we could actually beat the Bobcats at home, huh?

[dlts20]

The Wizards are in love with the midrange jumper. 40.9% of their jumpers are considered midrange by Synergy (defined as between 17 feet from the basket and the 3 point line, AKA long 2s). That is the highest rate of midrange jumpers in the entire NBA. To make matters worse, the Wizards are only the 24th most efficient team on midrange jumpers. It's an inherently inefficient shot, that the Wizards are even more inefficient than most other NBA teams at, yet we still attempt more of these shots than any other team in the league. It's very troublesome, no matter who our opponent is.

This quote should be in the HOF. It perfectly encapsulates the profound ineptitude of Wittman. It's one thing to feature the long 2 in a league where everyone else is abandoning it if you happen to have the personnel to do it; but it's criminally stupid to feature the long 2 on a team who is terrible at shooting it.

Seriously, somebody needs to email this to Ted. Something has got to be done.

and even that is a 50/50 misleading thing. Other teams shoot it better because its a natural shot for them. They are mixing it up with 3's or drives/closer shots. Our's is bad because every team knows thats what we actually want to do, and 9 times out of 10 its a rushed, forced shot. Those long 2's that Beal takes are almost always with a guy hounding him and he has to dribble face into the J before the guy closes or he has to run around like chicken before he gets the shot up. Its basically the same with Wall. He has to dribble fast around that pick going to his right and shoot the ball back to his left on the run while the defender is closing on it hard. Its so annoying

[manifested]

After years of hoping for the tank to improve draft position, I find myself completely out of sorts.

On the one hand, I've deluded myself into the general mindset that only losing will force the necessary changes this team needs to get a championship (tanking for picks, cleaning house, new management). As though somehow, losing to the Bobcats, getting swept at Indiana will result in replacing Grunfeld and Wittman with smart management and coaching and help the Wizards take the next step. They had to lose to clean out the stink of the last core. Now they need to lose to finish that process and clean out the incompetence at the top of the chain of command.

On the other, that's so unlikely to happen (even if this team loses out) and I'm so starved for playoff basketball, I want the team to be surprisingly successful this year even if it means they get stuck with EG and Witt in this non-contender, long-2 shooting, inefficient, barely-in-the-playoffs position for the near future.

Ultimately, when the game starts, I'll be rooting for the Wizards, all the while thinking that this won't go anywhere. How messed up does a franchise have to be to invoke these feelings going into the playoffs after decades of losing? We should be happy and optimistic, right? No. We are just Wizards fans.

[hands11]

This game will determine our playoff seed. I think we come out and play a great game and win. Bobcats need to be put in their place.

A nervous strange time to be a Wizards fan.

Haven't played in a few days head to head against CHA
Not sure what Nene will look like
Got a peak at Otto recently and he looked pretty good.
With some lucky slotting, there is a small window to go deep in the playoffs.
But Randy as HC so I never feel as excited as I should.

We win and do well, then its more likely Randy get extended.. not sure I like.
We do bad and there is disappointment of a missed opprotunity but more likely we get an upgraded HC

Just a strange time to be a Wizards fan.

[dangermouse]

Wittman quote from that article:

“You take open shots. You take open shots. Where they are is dictated by what the defense does. If you predicate what kind of shot you’re going to take not based on what you’re doing reading the defense, you’re not going to get good shots. I just worry about goods shots.

You know what? Those numbers you can stick… alright? You know, all you analytical people that take that… You take good shots, that’s the most important thing. Maybe we’re not taking good midrange shots, maybe we’re taking contested ones. I understand the numbers are there for a reason, we look at the numbers, but to sit there and… We got a good, open shot we’re taking, I don’t care where it is.”

Wow that is one of the most frustrating pair of paragraphs ive ever read.

Does he not realise that those shots are open shots for a reason?

"Where they are is dictated by what the defense does."



Wittless, the good teams, the WINNING teams, dictate where they take a majority of their shots regardless of the defensive sets. It is called having an offense, running plays, and so forth.

[rockymac52]

Wittman quote from that article:

“You take open shots. You take open shots. Where they are is dictated by what the defense does. If you predicate what kind of shot you’re going to take not based on what you’re doing reading the defense, you’re not going to get good shots. I just worry about goods shots.

You know what? Those numbers you can stick… alright? You know, all you analytical people that take that… You take good shots, that’s the most important thing. Maybe we’re not taking good midrange shots, maybe we’re taking contested ones. I understand the numbers are there for a reason, we look at the numbers, but to sit there and… We got a good, open shot we’re taking, I don’t care where it is.”

Wow that is one of the most frustrating pair of paragraphs ive ever read.

Does he not realise that those shots are open shots for a reason?

"Where they are is dictated by what the defense does."



Wittless, the good teams, the WINNING teams, dictate where they take a majority of their shots regardless of the defensive sets. It is called having an offense, running plays, and so forth.

I couldn't disagree with that statement more.

Teams call their plays based on the opposing team's personnel, strengths, and weaknesses. When teams come up with their game plan for the next game, they take into account who they're playing and how that team will react. Teams don't draw up a game plan weeks in advance based only on their own players and their skills. If they did, then you'd likely see the exact game plan and play calls night in and night out from every team in the NBA, regardless of who they were playing.

To illustrate this, think about the Spurs. What makes them so good on offense isn't just the individual talent of the players on their roster. It's not just exceptional play calling or complicated playbooks. It's that all of their players have been coached to react to the defense in the heat of the moment, in order to find the best open look possible. Sure, they may design some of their plays with the intention of getting an open look for a good shooter in the corner, but if that player isn't open, the play isn't totally broken. The Spurs players react to what the defense gives them. If that good shooter in the corner is defended well, then they look to alternate options elsewhere on the court.

Basketball is about getting open looks. Some of those looks can be by design, but many others are the result of the offense reading and reacting to how the defense plays them.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The Wizards are in love with the midrange jumper. 40.9% of their jumpers are considered midrange by Synergy (defined as between 17 feet from the basket and the 3 point line, AKA long 2s). That is the highest rate of midrange jumpers in the entire NBA. To make matters worse, the Wizards are only the 24th most efficient team on midrange jumpers. It's an inherently inefficient shot, that the Wizards are even more inefficient than most other NBA teams at, yet we still attempt more of these shots than any other team in the league. It's very troublesome, no matter who our opponent is.

This quote should be in the HOF. It perfectly encapsulates the profound ineptitude of Wittman. It's one thing to feature the long 2 in a league where everyone else is abandoning it if you happen to have the personnel to do it; but it's criminally stupid to feature the long 2 on a team who is terrible at shooting it.

Seriously, somebody needs to email this to Ted. Something has got to be done.

Coaching change would fix this. Beal needs to attempt far more threes and far less midrange jumpers. Webster and Ariza each need more attempts. Wall needs to either shoot a three or try to finish or get fouled at the rim more often--he is another who needs to lay off the long two. Also, more pick and rolls should be run for Gortat.

Drew Gooden is one of the few who is very efficient on the midrange two. He along with Gortat and Nene have to take the open looks they get from 12 and in, but not the long two from around 16-18 feet.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Wittman quote from that article:

Wow that is one of the most frustrating pair of paragraphs ive ever read.

Does he not realise that those shots are open shots for a reason?

"Where they are is dictated by what the defense does."



Wittless, the good teams, the WINNING teams, dictate where they take a majority of their shots regardless of the defensive sets. It is called having an offense, running plays, and so forth.

I couldn't disagree with that statement more.

Teams call their plays based on the opposing team's personnel, strengths, and weaknesses. When teams come up with their game plan for the next game, they take into account who they're playing and how that team will react. Teams don't draw up a game plan weeks in advance based only on their own players and their skills. If they did, then you'd likely see the exact game plan and play calls night in and night out from every team in the NBA, regardless of who they were playing.

To illustrate this, think about the Spurs. What makes them so good on offense isn't just the individual talent of the players on their roster. It's not just exceptional play calling or complicated playbooks. It's that all of their players have been coached to react to the defense in the heat of the moment, in order to find the best open look possible. Sure, they may design some of their plays with the intention of getting an open look for a good shooter in the corner, but if that player isn't open, the play isn't totally broken. The Spurs players react to what the defense gives them. If that good shooter in the corner is defended well, then they look to alternate options elsewhere on the court.

Basketball is about getting open looks. Some of those looks can be by design, but many others are the result of the offense reading and reacting to how the defense plays them.

Not just where they take the shot from but also who takes the shot.

One of the problems with Wittman not being up on analytical methodologies is that he seems to think Beal is a good shooter from anywhere on the court, at home or away, at any time of the game. His splits show numbers from home vs away, from shooting per quarter, per time left in quarter, and from distance extending to three point range.


http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ting/2014/


Randy's got a good defensive system but the offense of the Wizards could be a lot better. Having the right players shooting from the right distance at the right time in games helps.

[dlts20]

lol.....Im just now reading that article on long 2's. I was wondering why doesnt the media question Witt about that. IDK how I missed that article. All Im hoping is that Ted is paying attention but Im not sold that he is

[dangermouse]

I think what i mean to say is, our offense should not be dictated by the opposing team's defense. It should be the other way around?