A conversation about the Wizards (Grantland article)

[tontoz]

Wall played all 82 games, averaged career highs in points, assists, showcased much improved shooting range from 3pt, became a competent p&r point guard, made his first All-Star team, and went through the mercurial up-and-downs of a Washington Wizards season to lead his team into the postseason.. yet he was a disappointment, because 'PER'..

Wall's points per 36 minutes went down relative to last season. His assist rate is no better than it was his first two seasons. His rebounding rate was at a career low and his turnover rate was up from last year. He improved his 3 point shooting but was worse inside the arc. He set a career low in foul shot attempts per game.

Sorry but i expected better than that.

[jivelikenice]

I think a couple of things hurt Wall.

1. He wore down as the season went on. I think the pre-Andre Miller load he carried probably contributed to him wearing down.

2. The lack of FTs and jump shot dependency. Its been beaten to death here so no reason to regurgitate it. The blame is 50/50 on the guards and the staff here. If he was settling on his own, the coaches should have re-emphasized the need to attack the paint more often.

3. His points were going to be down. When Wall went on his tear late last year he had Temple at the 2 and Nene sat on and off as well. Wall was the primary option and had to keep shotting. This years team by the end of the season had a lot more scoring options PLUS I'm sure Wall was receiving mixed messages after being scolded whenever they did lose in a game where he shot "too much".

[MoonwalkJenkins]

Wall played all 82 games, averaged career highs in points, assists, showcased much improved shooting range from 3pt, became a competent p&r point guard, made his first All-Star team, and went through the mercurial up-and-downs of a Washington Wizards season to lead his team into the postseason.. yet he was a disappointment, because 'PER'..

Wall's points per 36 minutes went down relative to last season. His assist rate is no better than it was his first two seasons. His rebounding rate was at a career low and his turnover rate was up from last year. He improved his 3 point shooting but was worse inside the arc. He set a career low in foul shot attempts per game.

Sorry but i expected better than that.

If Wall played 82 games like he did the last 30 of last season he would have been in the MVP discussion, probably 3rd behind Lebron and KD. If those were your expectations then I'm not sure if they were completely realistic.

[Illmatic21]

Wall played all 82 games, averaged career highs in points, assists, showcased much improved shooting range from 3pt, became a competent p&r point guard, made his first All-Star team, and went through the mercurial up-and-downs of a Washington Wizards season to lead his team into the postseason.. yet he was a disappointment, because 'PER'..

Wall's points per 36 minutes went down relative to last season. His assist rate is no better than it was his first two seasons. His rebounding rate was at a career low and his turnover rate was up from last year. He improved his 3 point shooting but was worse inside the arc. He set a career low in foul shot attempts per game.

Sorry but i expected better than that.

Wall went on a tear last year over a ~40 game span. He was arguably the 3rd-4th best player in the league during that stretch, which is his peak but not the standard I'd hold him to over an 82 game season. The numbers he had this season are pretty much what you'd expect over an entire season's sample size. No aspect of his game regressed to the point where I'd say his whole season was a disappointment.


Russell Westbrook only appeared in 46 games this season, but played like a madman when he was on the court averaging 22-7-6. If next year his numbers go back down to his previous averages over an 82 game season, that wouldn't be a disappointment. Particularly if he's shown clear and obvious improvement in key aspects of his game..

[tontoz]

Wall played all 82 games, averaged career highs in points, assists, showcased much improved shooting range from 3pt, became a competent p&r point guard, made his first All-Star team, and went through the mercurial up-and-downs of a Washington Wizards season to lead his team into the postseason.. yet he was a disappointment, because 'PER'..

Wall's points per 36 minutes went down relative to last season. His assist rate is no better than it was his first two seasons. His rebounding rate was at a career low and his turnover rate was up from last year. He improved his 3 point shooting but was worse inside the arc. He set a career low in foul shot attempts per game.

Sorry but i expected better than that.

If Wall played 82 games like he did the last 30 of last season he would have been in the MVP discussion, probably 3rd behind Lebron and KD. If those were your expectations then I'm not sure if they were completely realistic.

That is just wrong. Last April Wall shot 43.5% from the field, 10% from 3. In March he was better but still sub-50% from the field. He did shoot 45% from 3 in March but on only 1.3 attempts per game. He never had a 30 game strech that was MVP calibur, or even close.

He struggled badly in Jan-Feb last year until he got his conditioning back, shooting 40% from the field with only a handful of made 3s. Last year's bar was not that high.

[tontoz]

Wall played all 82 games, averaged career highs in points, assists, showcased much improved shooting range from 3pt, became a competent p&r point guard, made his first All-Star team, and went through the mercurial up-and-downs of a Washington Wizards season to lead his team into the postseason.. yet he was a disappointment, because 'PER'..

Wall's points per 36 minutes went down relative to last season. His assist rate is no better than it was his first two seasons. His rebounding rate was at a career low and his turnover rate was up from last year. He improved his 3 point shooting but was worse inside the arc. He set a career low in foul shot attempts per game.

Sorry but i expected better than that.

Wall went on a tear last year over a ~40 game span. He was arguably the 3rd-4th best player in the league during that stretch, which is his peak but not the standard I'd hold him to over an 82 game season. The numbers he had this season are pretty much what you'd expect over an entire season's sample size. No aspect of his game regressed to the point where I'd say his whole season was a disappointment.


Russell Westbrook only appeared in 46 games this season, but played like a madman when he was on the court averaging 22-7-6. If next year his numbers go back down to his previous averages over an 82 game season, that wouldn't be a disappointment. Particularly if he's shown clear and obvious improvement in key aspects of his game..

LMAO

Please post the exact dates of this 40 game span you are talking about.






Exactly. He only played 42 games total last season. :

[Illmatic21]

Wall's points per 36 minutes went down relative to last season. His assist rate is no better than it was his first two seasons. His rebounding rate was at a career low and his turnover rate was up from last year. He improved his 3 point shooting but was worse inside the arc. He set a career low in foul shot attempts per game.

Sorry but i expected better than that.

Wall went on a tear last year over a ~40 game span. He was arguably the 3rd-4th best player in the league during that stretch, which is his peak but not the standard I'd hold him to over an 82 game season. The numbers he had this season are pretty much what you'd expect over an entire season's sample size. No aspect of his game regressed to the point where I'd say his whole season was a disappointment.


Russell Westbrook only appeared in 46 games this season, but played like a madman when he was on the court averaging 22-7-6. If next year his numbers go back down to his previous averages over an 82 game season, that wouldn't be a disappointment. Particularly if he's shown clear and obvious improvement in key aspects of his game..

LMAO

Please post the exact dates of this 40 game span you are talking about.

My bad, it was 26 games. 26 games in March and April with significantly higher production than we'd ever seen from him, and that 26 games was more than 50% of his season:

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelog/_ ... /john-wall

March in particular, he put up basically MVP Rose numbers, and I specifically recall several coaches around the league remarking that they'd never seen him play that well, and that they'd have to adjust their strategies against him moving forward. Wall came out this year with a higher profile and more defensive attention focused on him (and on the Wizards team in general), and all things considered he performed fairly well imo.

[tontoz]

My bad, it was 26 games. 26 games in March and April with significantly higher production than we'd ever seen from him, and that 26 games was more than 50% of his season:

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelog/_ ... /john-wall

March in particular, he put up basically MVP Rose numbers, and I specifically recall several coaches around the league remarking that they'd never seen him play that well, and that they'd have to adjust their strategies against him moving forward. Wall came out this year with a higher profile and more defensive attention focused on him (and on the Wizards team in general), and all things considered he performed fairly well imo.

Actually it was just march. He shot 43% from the field in April, 10% from 3.

So basically he was hot for a month shooting 48.5% in March, which was 17 games. In the other 25 games he shoot poorly from 2 and was non-existent from 3.

[MoonwalkJenkins]

Wall's points per 36 minutes went down relative to last season. His assist rate is no better than it was his first two seasons. His rebounding rate was at a career low and his turnover rate was up from last year. He improved his 3 point shooting but was worse inside the arc. He set a career low in foul shot attempts per game.

Sorry but i expected better than that.

If Wall played 82 games like he did the last 30 of last season he would have been in the MVP discussion, probably 3rd behind Lebron and KD. If those were your expectations then I'm not sure if they were completely realistic.

That is just wrong. Last April Wall shot 43.5% from the field, 10% from 3. In March he was better but still sub-50% from the field. He did shoot 45% from 3 in March but on only 1.3 attempts per game. He never had a 30 game strech that was MVP calibur, or even close.

He struggled badly in Jan-Feb last year until he got his conditioning back, shooting 40% from the field with only a handful of made 3s. Last year's bar was not that high.

In his last 26 games last season (March and April) Wall averaged 23/8/5 with 2 steals while shooting 47% (34% from 3). With that sparkling PER you value so much.

To put that in context, the only player to avg those offensive numbers this season is Curry, who you have to concede doesn't do nearly the job Wall does on defense. Curry is 3 years older than Wall, and a season more experienced as well. Could Wall get there next year over a full 82 games while still holding his defensive water? Sure, but to say he didn't meet expectations this year because he didn't carry over that streak entirely for the full season is silly IMO.

[Illmatic21]

My bad, it was 26 games. 26 games in March and April with significantly higher production than we'd ever seen from him, and that 26 games was more than 50% of his season:

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelog/_ ... /john-wall

March in particular, he put up basically MVP Rose numbers, and I specifically recall several coaches around the league remarking that they'd never seen him play that well, and that they'd have to adjust their strategies against him moving forward. Wall came out this year with a higher profile and more defensive attention focused on him (and on the Wizards team in general), and all things considered he performed fairly well imo.

Actually it was just march. He shot 43% from the field in April, 10% from 3.

So basically he was hot for a month shooting 48.5% in March, which was 17 games. In the other 25 games he shoot poorly from 2 and was non-existent from 3.

But seeing as he only played 49 games, those games in March were a large chunk of his season (and an even larger chunk of his minutes) which = higher season stats

[tontoz]

In his last 26 games last season (March and April) Wall averaged 23/8/5 with 2 steals while shooting 47% (34% from 3). With that sparkling PER you value so much.

To put that in context, the only player to avg those offensive numbers this season is Curry, who you have to concede doesn't do nearly the job Wall does on defense. Curry is 3 years older than Wall, and a season more experienced as well. Could Wall get there next year over a full 82 games while still holding his defensive water? Sure, but to say he didn't meet expectations this year because he didn't carry over that streak entirely for the full season is silly IMO.

Wall wasn't taking many 3s last year. Even during March-April he took only 1.2 three pointers per game.

His scoring efficiency during that time from was better than we have seen from him in the past but nothing special, certainly not in Curry territory. For his career Curry averages 8 three point attempts per game, shooting 42.4%.

[tontoz]

t seeing as he only played 49 games, those games in March were a large chunk of his season (and an even larger chunk of his minutes) which = higher season stats

Last season Wall's TS% was ranked 40th among pgs. Do you really think it is too much to expect him to improve on that?

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinge ... /year/2013

[Illmatic21]

t seeing as he only played 49 games, those games in March were a large chunk of his season (and an even larger chunk of his minutes) which = higher season stats

Last season Wall's TS% was ranked 40th among pgs. Do you really think it is too much to expect him to improve on that?

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinge ... /year/2013

I personally don't consider his 2013-2014 campaign a disappointment just because he didn't improve his TS% and PER

[tontoz]

t seeing as he only played 49 games, those games in March were a large chunk of his season (and an even larger chunk of his minutes) which = higher season stats

Last season Wall's TS% was ranked 40th among pgs. Do you really think it is too much to expect him to improve on that?

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinge ... /year/2013

I personally don't consider his 2013-2014 campaign a disappointment just because he didn't improve his TS% and PER

Good for you. I on the other hand expected him to actually improve over an injury plauged season last year. I am not saying he played bad but he didn't play significantly better either.

[Illmatic21]

Last season Wall's TS% was ranked 40th among pgs. Do you really think it is too much to expect him to improve on that?

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinge ... /year/2013

I personally don't consider his 2013-2014 campaign a disappointment just because he didn't improve his TS% and PER

Good for you. I on the other hand expected him to actually improve over an injury plauged season last year. I am not saying he played bad but he didn't play significantly better either.

Maybe not from a statistical standpoint. But I believe Wall made significant improvements in his approach to the game that may not necessarily be measurable with increased stats right away, but will bear out in the future. Particularly if management can put the right mix of talent/coaching around him moving forward.

Everyone around Wall has noted that he's grown as a player this year, and Wall himself has said that he's developed greatly (and he openly admitted he didn't improve in his second year, so I don't see him as the type to misrepresent himself). I believe them.

[dckingsfan]

I don't know if anyone would consider it a skill - but he played in all of the 82 games, nearly 3000 minutes. I personally think that is a skill - staying healthy and being on the court gives this team a much better chance at winning.

Actually, I was assuming at the beginning of the year that he would miss between 10&15 games and that would be the difference between making the playoffs or not.

But as to the other metrics... yes, neither Beal or Wall took a big jump

[LyricalRico]

I don't know if anyone would consider it a skill - but he played in all of the 82 games, nearly 3000 minutes. I personally think that is a skill - staying healthy and being on the court gives this team a much better chance at winning.

Actually, I was assuming at the beginning of the year that he would miss between 10&15 games and that would be the difference between making the playoffs or not.

But as to the other metrics... yes, neither Beal or Wall took a big jump

Don't forget their performances during All Star weekend, and Wall leading the league in total assists. And both now having the experience of fighting for playoff seeding and actually playing in playoff games.

[montestewart]

I don't know if anyone would consider it a skill - but he played in all of the 82 games, nearly 3000 minutes. I personally think that is a skill - staying healthy and being on the court gives this team a much better chance at winning.

Actually, I was assuming at the beginning of the year that he would miss between 10&15 games and that would be the difference between making the playoffs or not.

But as to the other metrics... yes, neither Beal or Wall took a big jump

Don't forget their performances during All Star weekend, and Wall leading the league in total assists. And both now having the experience of fighting for playoff seeding and actually playing in playoff games.

I'm somewhere in between Tontoz and dckingsfan. Like Tontoz, I was hoping Wall would make a big leap forward, so I was a little disappointed. In raw numbers and various other measures, Wall this year was comparable to Wall last year, but at least I didn't see a big step backward. Wall's numbers last year included that phenomenal March, so you could argue that he was more consistent rather than leaning on one stretch that looks like an aberration from his norm.

Positives from this year: greatly improved 3 point shooting, incorporating an improved P&R game (sure he has a ways to go, but he's at least moving in that direction), playing in ASG and winning Slam Dunk (these can help Wall and Wizards with refs and with potential FAs), and playing in every game. Still a little disappointed in his year, but it's far from a disaster.

[DCZards]

Wall's jumper improved this season. Yes, statistically speaking he shot worse primarily because he took far too many long and midrange jumpers, but his shot itself continues to improve. Better form, fewer downright bricks.

[tontoz]

To put things in perspective in March of last season Walls TS% was 57.3% and his ORTG was 117.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lits/2013/


Isaiah Thomas' career averages are 57.4% TS and 115 ORTG.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ais02.html

Obviously Wall is a better defender than Thomas but i think people are getting a bit carried away about Wall's hot streak last season.