nate33 wrote:I really like a lot of our matchups. Their best two offensive threats: West and George, happen to play at the position where we have our best two defenders: Nene and Ariza.
Stephenson's propensity to crash the offensive glass may backfire on them because of our fast break attack.
Overall, I think Indy is going to have a real tough time scoring. The question is, will we be able to score against them? That's where I'm much less confident. We're going to need Wall to step it up big time because he probably has the best matchup offensively. I think he can get around George Hill. We're also going to have to get some points from our second unit. Gooden needs to regain the shooting form he showed when we first signed him. Hopefully, the Professor can take CJ Watson to school.
I do think Wall has to show early that he can slice to the interior and hit that elbow jumper both. You want Big HIbbert to be forced into lateral motion, running Gortat in P&R (instead of Nene) at the times when Hibbert is matched on him. This draws Hibbert away from the paint, lets Nene work on the smaller DWest down low and forces Big Hibba to tire out from trying to show and recover. It also lets Gortat get loose on the roll for two steps and a dunk.
I think many of the lessons Atlanta showed are applicable, even without the range of a Big on the outside. Nene and Gortat both can hit open jumpers if INdy loads up on bigs in the paint. It's interesting that we seem to have been exploiting the loophole in conventional wisdom: the Spurs model defense says: challenge the 3 point shot, clog the interior, give up 2pt jumpers. Well this squad is comfortable that way and has been able to win that way, so long as we can combine that philosophy with solid defense and a few fast break runs a game. Essentially you're not forcing us to do anything we haven't practiced doing. Yeah I wish we were better at it, more efficient, but at least we never panic and get out of our comfort zone --that IS our comfort zone.
Defensively I agree, I think we're alright. And in the transition game may be able to convert many of their missed shots into our fast break points at the other end, since they don't have as many uptempo bigs as Chicago, and right the emphasis on guard rebounding on offense leads to floor balance problems if we do take the rebound ourself. Our guards and Ariza are pretty good themselves at taking those midrange rebounds on the defensive end. They'll get some, we'll get some.
Their best exterior defender is George. But here the Wiz benefit again by not having any particular superstar to load up on. We need contributions from any of Ariza, Beal, Webster or a wildcard (Gooden, Harrington, whomever) but can spread the floor with any of them and shutting down one does not choke off our team. We just look for the other.
To me this looks like a fun team to play. Win and lose. One thing that makes me nervous is that this game is a little bit more of a chessmatch. Vogel has more pieces to play with than Thibbs. Chicago had Noah and DJ and that was it. If you shut off those two he had no where to turn. But while George and West are key, Indy does have weapons or options at every position. I watched Scola back when he was in Europe winning championships, he's a cagey crafty player. Mahinmi is a bigger hustlebig than Booker. Turner has been hyper efficient in the playoffs, making his attempts count. Copeland stretches the floor. Hill, Watson, all can prove dangerous in any given game. If it comes to a matter of match-ups, adjustments, chemistry, and feel then the depth of Indiana allows their coach more creativity, and provides more of an issue for Randy to figure out how to make adjustments beyond 'who do I put Ariza on?'