Countdown to Don Newman Being Named Interim Head Coach

[gambitx777]

Randy wittman is the definition of serviceable. The guys like and respect him so they play for him. That's good. He knows how to work and motivate people. But, he does not have a great basket ball mind. Does he belong on an NBA staff. 100% yes, does he belong in the NBA as a long term HC, No!

[LyricalRico]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/BulletsForever/status/567707228656791552[/tweet]

I knew it had become a thing for the Wizards to fade in the fourth, but OH MY?!?! 27th ranked defensively in the fourth is staggeringly terrible. Why?
- Are the guys tired?
- No Gortat in the middle?
- Poor coaching decisions down the stretch?
- Non-clutch play?

Yep, Witt is pulling an EFJ and keeping his starting big on the bench for no reason.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2015/2/12 ... to-raptors

3. Wizards have a losing record since late December

Via Ben Standig of Comcast SportsNet:

•On the season against teams with current winning percentages topping .600, the Wizards are 6-11. Wins over Chicago (2), Cleveland, Houston, Los Angeles Clippers, San Antonio
•Against teams with current winning percentages topping .500, the Wizards are 10-15
•Against teams currently occupying a playoff spot, the Wizards are 10-17
•Against teams not currently occupying a playoff spot, the Wizards are 23-4. If we eliminate games against Oklahoma City and New Orleans - both over .500 but out the playoffs in the tough West - the record is 21-2.

I'll just let that sit here and marinate for a while...

The Wizards are clearly a just-above-mediocre team that has been feasting on non-playoff, losing teams.

Is this primarily a talent issue or a coaching issue?

Or some combination?

I know we need another PG but personally, I think Wittman is a HUGE liability.

For the most part, the roster isn't that talented. If you look at (ESPN's) Real Plus Minus there are only two Wizards in the top 10%:

John Wall (9 out of 456). Wall at #4 among PGs is elite at his position. (Trails only Curry, Westbrook, and Lillard)
Nene (34 out of 456) Nene at #9 among PFs is also an elite player

In terms of rankings, Gortat (91 out of 456, #14 C), Pierce (103 out of 456, #19 SF), and Beal (108 out of 456, #21 SG) rank in the average to slightly above average range.

MOST SURPRISING: Kris Humphries only rates (355 out of 456 players, 86 out of 98 PFs), Seraphin WHO ALSO TRAILS BLAIR NATE (424 out of 456, #70 of 72 Cs).

EQUALLY SURPRISING, Rock Solid: Otto Porter (203 of 456, and #32 of 73 SFs), and Andre Miller (240 out of 456, and #44 out of 80 PGS)


The Wizards have a talented starting 5 but the bench tails off quite a bit.

COACHING is a problem, because Wittman loves Seraphin and Humphries, but both are largely ineffective and the two SHOULD NOT BE ON THE COURT TOGETHER.

[hands11]

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2015/2/12 ... to-raptors



The Wizards are clearly a just-above-mediocre team that has been feasting on non-playoff, losing teams.

Is this primarily a talent issue or a coaching issue?

Or some combination?

I know we need another PG but personally, I think Wittman is a HUGE liability.

For the most part, the roster isn't that talented. If you look at (ESPN's) Real Plus Minus there are only two Wizards in the top 10%:

John Wall (9 out of 456). Wall at #4 among PGs is elite at his position. (Trails only Curry, Westbrook, and Lillard)
Nene (34 out of 456) Nene at #9 among PFs is also an elite player

In terms of rankings, Gortat (91 out of 456, #14 C), Pierce (103 out of 456, #19 SF), and Beal (108 out of 456, #21 SG) rank in the average to slightly above average range.

MOST SURPRISING: Kris Humphries only rates (355 out of 456 players, 86 out of 98 PFs), Seraphin WHO ALSO TRAILS BLAIR NATE (424 out of 456, #70 of 72 Cs).

EQUALLY SURPRISING, Rock Solid: Otto Porter (203 of 456, and #32 of 73 SFs), and Andre Miller (240 out of 456, and #44 out of 80 PGS)


The Wizards have a talented starting 5 but the bench tails off quite a bit.

COACHING is a problem, because Wittman loves Seraphin and Humphries, but both are largely ineffective and the two SHOULD NOT BE ON THE COURT TOGETHER.

Well, the first half of what you write isn't as bad as you make it sound. Position by position, we have across the board players near the top. And Beal is a lot higher this year then last. Gortat would be higher if not for his offensive ranking and that is messed up because they don't PnR him as much this year. I prefer a player in each grouping that is top 10. Thats if you want to be an elite team. But you can be really good with a few 15-20s in there. As long as you expect them to get better. Like Beal.

I know I have posted all this before. I couldn't have been that long ago.

But yes, Hump and Kev are pretty low and they should sub for each other with Nene and Gortat separated to start the game or soon after.

Line ups line ups line ups. Spread it out. No more then three scorers together at a time. Wall, Beal, Nene and Gortat are to many players who get it going by getting their scoring going. Not enough glue.

Wall, Beal and Gortat is a grouping though I would prefer. PG, SF, C. Something like Wall, PP, Gortat or PG, SF, PF with a defensive center.

Then you can go

Beal, Nene and God, if we get IT, then IT, Beal, Nene are the 2nd core 3. As for now, Beal, Nene and Rasual is probably best.

Then you sprinkle in spot up shooters and defenders as needed. Webster, Otto, Temple, Gooden and Hump is a glue guy as well.

You can make two balanced compete line ups that way.

So yeah, Randy is not maximizing the roster. News Flash..LOL

[dckingsfan]

I see it a bit differently with the team assembled by Checkers for Wittman is a defensive minded coach. Given that fact, what is the right team to build around his prowess? John Wall's best attribute is moving the ball in the full court, specifically after stops, what is the best team to build around his prowess? I would say that Wall and Wittman are made for each other (sans the long 2s). So, what would be the right elements to build around Wall and Wittman.

Wings:
1) Need to be defensive minded.
2) Need to be able to shoot the 3 ball.
3) At least one should be able to run the half-court offense.

FC:
1) Should be good on P&R defense
2) should be rim protectors
3) Ability to stretch the D would be good

Backup PG:
1) Needs to be defensive minded
2) Needs to be able to run the half-court offense or shoot the 3 ball
3) defer to a wing that can run the offense

I give Checkers a lower grade than others because of who he has brought in to play under Wittman. It doesn't mean that Wittman doesn't have his flaws, but you need to give the coach the tools they need to move forward (then Wittman needs to actually play them).

Wings:

Beal
1) barely passable
2) Yes
3) No

Pierce
1) passable
2) Yes
3) Might be too old at this point

Temple
1) Yes
2) Sometimes
3) No

Butler
1) passable
2) Yes
3) No

Webster
1) No
2) Yes
3) No

Porter
1) Getting there
2) Yes
3) No

FC:

Gortat
1) Sometimes
2) Yes
3) No

Nene
1) Yes
2) Sometimes (trumped by 1)
3) Somewhat

Humphries
1) Sometimes
2) Sometimes
3) Yes, would be good to add a corner 3

Seraphin
1) No
2) No
3) No

Gooden
1) Sometimes
2) No
3) Yes

Blair
1) Sometimes
2) No
3) No

Backup PG:

Miller
1) No
2) Yes
3) No

[nate33]

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2015/2/12 ... to-raptors



The Wizards are clearly a just-above-mediocre team that has been feasting on non-playoff, losing teams.

Is this primarily a talent issue or a coaching issue?

Or some combination?

I know we need another PG but personally, I think Wittman is a HUGE liability.

For the most part, the roster isn't that talented. If you look at (ESPN's) Real Plus Minus there are only two Wizards in the top 10%:

John Wall (9 out of 456). Wall at #4 among PGs is elite at his position. (Trails only Curry, Westbrook, and Lillard)
Nene (34 out of 456) Nene at #9 among PFs is also an elite player

In terms of rankings, Gortat (91 out of 456, #14 C), Pierce (103 out of 456, #19 SF), and Beal (108 out of 456, #21 SG) rank in the average to slightly above average range.

MOST SURPRISING: Kris Humphries only rates (355 out of 456 players, 86 out of 98 PFs), Seraphin WHO ALSO TRAILS BLAIR NATE (424 out of 456, #70 of 72 Cs).

EQUALLY SURPRISING, Rock Solid: Otto Porter (203 of 456, and #32 of 73 SFs), and Andre Miller (240 out of 456, and #44 out of 80 PGS)


The Wizards have a talented starting 5 but the bench tails off quite a bit.

COACHING is a problem, because Wittman loves Seraphin and Humphries, but both are largely ineffective and the two SHOULD NOT BE ON THE COURT TOGETHER.

RPM is utterly useless in small sample sizes. It's not worth the paper it's printed on. Don't even look at it. For all intents and purposes, we have no data on Blair this year.

Also, one has to wonder about how well RPM adjusts for the John Wall affect. Humphries plays almost all the minutes that John Wall is not on the court. That's got to be killing his numbers. Gortat and Nene play almost all of their minutes with Wall. RPM is supposed to use regressive analysis to account for this, but, again, with the small sample size of non-Wall minutes for Gortat and Nene, it's all but worthless.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Yeah -- even for the "big minute" lineups, the sample size is pretty small at this point in the season. And, the Wizards have some interesting lineup effects going on. For example, their top two lineups in terms of minutes played are Wall-Beal-Pierce-Nenê-Gortat (396 total minutes), and then the same lineup but with Humphries instead of Nenê (317 minutes). With Nenê, that lineup is +9.3 per 100 possessions. With Humphries, they're +0.6.

But, when I look at the lineup data, I don't see many changes that would readily be attributable to Nenê vs. Humphries. The team has shot fewer threes and free throws with Humphries out there. But, Nenê is only +1.2 FTA per 100 possessions between the two, and the change in 3pt attempts isn't because Nenê shoots more because he doesn't. Maybe because Nenê is the better passer? They actually assist a little more with Humphries out there.

What else? Rebounding has been slightly better with Nenê on the floor, although Humphries is significantly better on the boards in individual numbers. Nenê is a good box-out guy. Steals go down with Humphries out there, but blocks go up. The steals could be directly related to Nenê vs. Humphries, but neither guy is a shot-blocker.

My sense (based on looking at LOTS of data): we're looking at some fluky results. If I had time to drill down into a game log of lineup data, I suspect I'd find an aberrant result or two with that "starters + Humphries" lineup or with "starters plus Nenê. Or both, perhaps.

[Dat2U]

Yeah -- even for the "big minute" lineups, the sample size is pretty small at this point in the season. And, the Wizards have some interesting lineup effects going on. For example, their top two lineups in terms of minutes played are Wall-Beal-Pierce-Nenê-Gortat (396 total minutes), and then the same lineup but with Humphries instead of Nenê (317 minutes). With Nenê, that lineup is +9.3 per 100 possessions. With Humphries, they're +0.6.

But, when I look at the lineup data, I don't see many changes that would readily be attributable to Nenê vs. Humphries. The team has shot fewer threes and free throws with Humphries out there. But, Nenê is only +1.2 FTA per 100 possessions between the two, and the change in 3pt attempts isn't because Nenê shoots more because he doesn't. Maybe because Nenê is the better passer? They actually assist a little more with Humphries out there.

What else? Rebounding has been slightly better with Nenê on the floor, although Humphries is significantly better on the boards in individual numbers. Nenê is a good box-out guy. Steals go down with Humphries out there, but blocks go up. The steals could be directly related to Nenê vs. Humphries, but neither guy is a shot-blocker.

My sense (based on looking at LOTS of data): we're looking at some fluky results. If I had time to drill down into a game log of lineup data, I suspect I'd find an aberrant result or two with that "starters + Humphries" lineup or with "starters plus Nenê. Or both, perhaps.

I don't think there's anything fluky about it. It's the defense. IMO it all has to do with Nene being an elite defender & Humphries not being able to defend his own shadow.

[Dat2U]

Is this primarily a talent issue or a coaching issue?

Or some combination?

I know we need another PG but personally, I think Wittman is a HUGE liability.

For the most part, the roster isn't that talented. If you look at (ESPN's) Real Plus Minus there are only two Wizards in the top 10%:

John Wall (9 out of 456). Wall at #4 among PGs is elite at his position. (Trails only Curry, Westbrook, and Lillard)
Nene (34 out of 456) Nene at #9 among PFs is also an elite player

In terms of rankings, Gortat (91 out of 456, #14 C), Pierce (103 out of 456, #19 SF), and Beal (108 out of 456, #21 SG) rank in the average to slightly above average range.

MOST SURPRISING: Kris Humphries only rates (355 out of 456 players, 86 out of 98 PFs), Seraphin WHO ALSO TRAILS BLAIR NATE (424 out of 456, #70 of 72 Cs).

EQUALLY SURPRISING, Rock Solid: Otto Porter (203 of 456, and #32 of 73 SFs), and Andre Miller (240 out of 456, and #44 out of 80 PGS)


The Wizards have a talented starting 5 but the bench tails off quite a bit.

COACHING is a problem, because Wittman loves Seraphin and Humphries, but both are largely ineffective and the two SHOULD NOT BE ON THE COURT TOGETHER.

RPM is utterly useless in small sample sizes. It's not worth the paper it's printed on. Don't even look at it. For all intents and purposes, we have no data on Blair this year.

Also, one has to wonder about how well RPM adjusts for the John Wall affect. Humphries plays almost all the minutes that John Wall is not on the court. That's got to be killing his numbers. Gortat and Nene play almost all of their minutes with Wall. RPM is supposed to use regressive analysis to account for this, but, again, with the small sample size of non-Wall minutes for Gortat and Nene, it's all but worthless.

For Blair absolutely your right...nothing can be determined based on so few minutes. For guys that have played 50 games or more... I don't know how that's a small sample size. I would surmise that it seems to take about 40 games or half the season before numbers start to normalize but even so I think RPM is good at detecting trends and good/bad stretches of play if you know what your looking for in analyzing the numbers.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Yeah -- even for the "big minute" lineups, the sample size is pretty small at this point in the season. And, the Wizards have some interesting lineup effects going on. For example, their top two lineups in terms of minutes played are Wall-Beal-Pierce-Nenê-Gortat (396 total minutes), and then the same lineup but with Humphries instead of Nenê (317 minutes). With Nenê, that lineup is +9.3 per 100 possessions. With Humphries, they're +0.6.

But, when I look at the lineup data, I don't see many changes that would readily be attributable to Nenê vs. Humphries. The team has shot fewer threes and free throws with Humphries out there. But, Nenê is only +1.2 FTA per 100 possessions between the two, and the change in 3pt attempts isn't because Nenê shoots more because he doesn't. Maybe because Nenê is the better passer? They actually assist a little more with Humphries out there.

What else? Rebounding has been slightly better with Nenê on the floor, although Humphries is significantly better on the boards in individual numbers. Nenê is a good box-out guy. Steals go down with Humphries out there, but blocks go up. The steals could be directly related to Nenê vs. Humphries, but neither guy is a shot-blocker.

My sense (based on looking at LOTS of data): we're looking at some fluky results. If I had time to drill down into a game log of lineup data, I suspect I'd find an aberrant result or two with that "starters + Humphries" lineup or with "starters plus Nenê. Or both, perhaps.

I don't think there's anything fluky about it. It's the defense. IMO it all has to do with Nene being an elite defender & Humphries not being able to defend his own shadow.

Maybe, but I don't think that's what the data says. At least not with respect to Humphries' defense. This season, the Wizards are about the same defensively when Humphries is on the floor (looking at all his minutes) vs. when he's off it. The difference is 1.6 points per 100 possessions, which is pretty small -- well within any error term when doing an adjusted plus/minus calculation.

I agree that Nenê is an excellent defender, but my money would still be on there being an aberrant result in a game or two along the way.

[Dat2U]

Yeah -- even for the "big minute" lineups, the sample size is pretty small at this point in the season. And, the Wizards have some interesting lineup effects going on. For example, their top two lineups in terms of minutes played are Wall-Beal-Pierce-Nenê-Gortat (396 total minutes), and then the same lineup but with Humphries instead of Nenê (317 minutes). With Nenê, that lineup is +9.3 per 100 possessions. With Humphries, they're +0.6.

But, when I look at the lineup data, I don't see many changes that would readily be attributable to Nenê vs. Humphries. The team has shot fewer threes and free throws with Humphries out there. But, Nenê is only +1.2 FTA per 100 possessions between the two, and the change in 3pt attempts isn't because Nenê shoots more because he doesn't. Maybe because Nenê is the better passer? They actually assist a little more with Humphries out there.

What else? Rebounding has been slightly better with Nenê on the floor, although Humphries is significantly better on the boards in individual numbers. Nenê is a good box-out guy. Steals go down with Humphries out there, but blocks go up. The steals could be directly related to Nenê vs. Humphries, but neither guy is a shot-blocker.

My sense (based on looking at LOTS of data): we're looking at some fluky results. If I had time to drill down into a game log of lineup data, I suspect I'd find an aberrant result or two with that "starters + Humphries" lineup or with "starters plus Nenê. Or both, perhaps.

I don't think there's anything fluky about it. It's the defense. IMO it all has to do with Nene being an elite defender & Humphries not being able to defend his own shadow.

Maybe, but I don't think that's what the data says. At least not with respect to Humphries' defense. This season, the Wizards are about the same defensively when Humphries is on the floor (looking at all his minutes) vs. when he's off it. The difference is 1.6 points per 100 possessions, which is pretty small -- well within any error term when doing an adjusted plus/minus calculation.

I agree that Nenê is an excellent defender, but my money would still be on there being an aberrant result in a game or two along the way.

Even if Nene is excellent as you describe and Humphries is merely a non-difference maker defensively.... that leaves a pretty wide variance. I would assume the difference b/w an elite defending big & a marginal to poor defending big would be pretty stark.

[Rafael122]

So no one can tell me what happened with his eye?

[LyricalRico]

So no one can tell me what happened with his eye?

Man, I been wondering that all season!

[FAH1223]

So no one can tell me what happened with his eye?

At first I thought it was just a normal black eye but its been there all year

[gambitx777]

IDC if the man has an eye patch and a parrot on his shoulder, if he can be more creative than wittman, make the change.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

IDC if the man has an eye patch and a parrot on his shoulder, if he can be more creative than wittman, make the change.

"Aargh, maties. I be yer new Coach!"

[gambitx777]

Hey, I'm down! Can't be any worse that wittman.

[LyricalRico]

LOL @ CCJ

[FAH1223]

It's going to happen soon
[tweet]https://twitter.com/Truth_About_It/status/569629446707269632[/tweet]
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[tweet]https://twitter.com/Truth_About_It/status/569638320847904768[/tweet]

[FAH1223]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ConorDDirks/status/569635839581401089[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/malitzd/status/569621809873747968[/tweet]

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