2015 Free Agency and Offseason Part 1

[nate33]

Fish, I'm thinking if you get Love, you get him to stay by having a plan to also get Durant. To get them both, you have to make choices to chop some people off the payroll. Beal and Gortat are the chopees, since Beal is going to be around a 16 mil cap hold. To acquire Love, you make Cleveland sign him and then make a trade that works real well for them - Gortat and Beal for a signed up Love. Gortat fits in their win now mode, and Beal gives them a 3 point shooter they need and a name player to make their fans happy.

Then we need a center - cheaply. We have the MLE to use, and UFA Alexis Ajinca might be far enough under the radar to steal - considering his salary this season is less than a million. He's only playing 14 minutes a game, but he's got a PER over 21 and a TS% of 62% - and a 7'8 wingspan. We'll still have Nene and Hump for quality depth up front next season. No Seraphin.

Then we need to replace Beal somehow. If Ajinca doesn't take up the whole MLE, find a cheap free agent like Babbitt, Gerald Green, Buddinger, Brandon Rush(?), and use our first round pick on either Justin Anderson or Tyus Jones. Neither is a pure 2, but both could work with John Wall. Jones has shown he can play with or without the ball - playing most of his minutes with PG Quinn Cook. It'd work because Wall can defend 2's. Anderson's made 46.9% of his 3's this season and provides a defensive presence. Otoh, his ball-handling would be a reason he'd be available when the Wiz pick.

The next year, Durant comes, and you still have room to add Satoransky and a big to backup Ajinka (Emeka Okafor?) and a late first to use.

I'm open-minded to trading Beal for Love, but I don't think we should include Gortat. If we're trying to build a core of Love, Durant and Wall, we're going to want a capable center who is reasonably cheap. Gortat's $12M a year contract is going to be a bargain in a few years. We can afford him and still have enough money for Love and Durant (and Wall) on max deals.

If we can't leverage Love's willingness to leave Cleveland to get him for peanuts as fishercob suggests, then we ought to trade Beal + Nene for Love. Hopefully we can stick them with Webster (maybe involving that Haywood contract?). We then move Humphries for wing help. Another option would Beal + Webster + Humphries for Love. We then look to move Nene for wing help.

The bottom line is that our best chances for KD2DC would be to have him join a team with Wall, Love and Gortat. We just need to find some half-decent 3&D guards.

[Ruzious]

We can keep Gortat, but I think you cut it so close that you can't afford adequate depth. And Gortat's inconsistency is an issue - not a good sign for a 31 year old player - even though he's played well the last few games. I've become doubtful that having him is much of an attraction for a free agent like Durant. Frankly, I'd rather have Ajinca - even if they had the same contracts. Admittedly, I'm probably depending too much on getting Ajinca or someone like him cheaply. But I think we're in a situation where a chance like that almost has to be taken.

[hands11]

And if the salary cap is $90m in 2016? Not that crazy for Seraphin to command that type of figure.

As mentioned in the first post, should be interesting this off season. It is a totally unique year if the cap goes up so much all in one year in 2016

Still don't understand why the PU won't take the smoothing proposal. It not like the player will make any less money. The NBA proposed to distribute the remaining money outside the cap to the teams so they can distribute it to the players. Its only a matter of cap number that is effected and who gets the money, not if they get the money. In the NBAs proposal, players could sign for 2M and still end up making 3 or more.

They worked so hard to get a system that levels the playing field against big market teams and from teams doing what MIA did and just signing a big 3, and now the majority of teams are going to just give that up to the benefit of big market teams like LAL ? Often, I don't get the PU. Seems they usually side with ideas that are short sighted and not in the best long term interest of the best league wide health or product we get to watch where they still make a butt ton. It was PUs agenda that lead to the mess they just climbed out of. Meanwhile, the system in place is leading to them about to make tons more then they are already making which is a ton.

Anyway, if there is no smoothing, most players that project to stick around in the league would be smart to take one year deals next year with an option. That is going to be interesting. And that works well for the Wizards. Still might cost you for that one year but at least their won't be as much competition over the number of years.

Actually, any player wanting a longer contract, you might want to run the other direction. Probably a sign they don't believe they are very good.

Not sure of all the legal side of it, but I wonder if the owners would counter the PU not wanting smoothing with smoothing forward. Instead of the projected 67M cap/81M lux for next year, they make it like 75M. I'm sure they wouldn't prefer this as they could have cash flow issues but it might be better then going from 67M to 90M all in one year. That would put the lux tax up at like 90M next year.

From the team ownership side, they might want to over spend this year anyway if they see players they want. If you are going to spend into the lux cap, you can do it this year since the year after you will be right back out of it.

Going to be interesting.

[hands11]

If I got hired as GM today, my first call would be to Kevin Love's agent to see if the rumors of his discontent in Cleveland are true and if he'd have interest in teaming up with Wall, Gortat, Beal, etc. in DC. If I could sell him (and a good GM should be able to do so, unless he's hell bent on a return to the west coast), I'd aggressively make moves to clear cap room to go after him.

The unhinged insanity of 2016 presents the Wizards with some short term opportunities. For one, Nene's expiring contract may be more movable than normal. Even if he's overpaid, the fact that he's a quality two-way big will attract some teams who want to add talent without blowing their shot at a big splash next summer. There will be teams who miss out on big free agents this summer who would take Nene into their cap room as a consolation prize -- perhaps even for a small draft pick asset. It only takes one from (New York, the Lakers, Dallas, Memphis, Orlando, Philly, etc). Attaching Webster would be critical, and depending on our cap situation, perhaps Blair or Hump.

The other thing I'd want to know from Love's agent is whether he desired a one year deal so as to take advantage of the new cap, or whether he wanted the security of a four year max deal. That said, I'd give him either.

As to the question on everyone's mind who has read this far -- WHAT ABOUT KEVIN DURANT???

I am convinced that the Wizards best (only?) shot at Durant is to get good enough so that he can see himself playing for titles here. If Love comes in on a one year deal, then Durant's salary slot is open (and you'd have Love's Bird Rights as a backup). If Love comes on a four year deal, you STILL go after Durant, and once you get the commitment from him, you trade Love (and he's relative bargain 3 year deal under the old cap) into someone else's cap space for assets. You could end up with 1 or 2 first round picks AND Durant as opposed to neither.

Love is a phenomenal fit on this team. He's not the defender Nene is, but he's an offensive superstar. He's another guy who we can run the offense through -- a great scorer, shooter, and passer -- and the "gravity" he creates will completely change our offense (especially with a better coach). And I'm convinced that Gortat is a better defender than he's given credit for and can be a very good defensive anchor for this team.

So while it's probably counterintuituve to a luddite like Ernie Grunfeld, the Wizards should be aggressive this summer about smartly improving the roster, and not just sit on their hands and hope for the best in 2016.

Exactly.

These are things I have agreed with but all I got as replies was, we don't have the cap room and Love wants to go West.

To which my reply was..sign and trade. Obviously long shoots but you go after them. Don't wait on KD.

Love would fit nicely. So would LMA or Milsap. But I'm sure lots of teams would say that. Milsap would be a real nice fit. Many would say even better then Love except for age.

A cheaper but yet decent alternative as has been mentioned by a few of us would be Luis Scola UFA making 4,500,000 or Mirza Teletovic UFA. I think the team can improve also by adding range to the bench. Gooden has been great for them. He is always undervalued. Losing him will hurt more then most might realize. What a great value for what he adds to the team. They can't lose him without replacing his skills.

Nene is a talented dude. Love the monster dunks and defense. But he doesn't have enough range to fit as well as needed next to Gortat. If he could just channel his inner David West. If they end up keeping Nene, if won't be the worst thing. But his FT shooting for a PF sucks.

Sucks Hump doesn't shot the 3. Man I wish Hump would stand 1-2 feet back and launch a few 3s he would be so much better. I would even consider moving him. Now you know why you can get a Hump in FA for 4.2M. Its because in todays game, his role is best filled by someone like him who can also step behind the 3 line. Sully in shape would do. Hump is a solid dude to have. But he could be so much more.

To bad we didn't just draft M Morris

[hands11]

While we're on the subject of 2016, I want to discuss Bradley Beal. I'm really not liking the way things are shaping up. Beal looks like he's going to pan out to be a pretty ordinary player - a Courtney Lee/Jodie Meeks type of guy. I'm not hating. You can live with a player like that at starting SG. But you don't want to pay that guy 7 figures. For whatever reason, Beal has so much hype that he will cost a minimum of $13M a year in the crazy market of 2016, and he might even cost $18M or so. He's not worth it. Ernie really needs to get proactive here and trade him for a guy who won't be a free agent until 2017 or 2018. By then, the market will have settled a bit after most teams have shot their wad.

Beal should have great trade value and give us a quality return. Everyone loves him. Bill Simmons just ranked him as 30th highest in the league in trade value. I'd trade him for any number of guys he has ranked lower including Oladipo, DeRozan and Jabari Parker.

Keep your powder dry if things sour in OKC. They wanted him before.

But we have to see this year play out for him. I just don't see him staying in this rut. He shot to well in DEC/JAN before he was injured. Dude shot two air balls last night. Something is wrong in his head. He is still working it out mentally. I like that during the year they do try to expand his game, but I think that comes are a cost right now. Hopefully he is back in a grove soon.

[nate33]

While we're on the subject of 2016, I want to discuss Bradley Beal. I'm really not liking the way things are shaping up. Beal looks like he's going to pan out to be a pretty ordinary player - a Courtney Lee/Jodie Meeks type of guy. I'm not hating. You can live with a player like that at starting SG. But you don't want to pay that guy 7 figures. For whatever reason, Beal has so much hype that he will cost a minimum of $13M a year in the crazy market of 2016, and he might even cost $18M or so. He's not worth it. Ernie really needs to get proactive here and trade him for a guy who won't be a free agent until 2017 or 2018. By then, the market will have settled a bit after most teams have shot their wad.

Beal should have great trade value and give us a quality return. Everyone loves him. Bill Simmons just ranked him as 30th highest in the league in trade value. I'd trade him for any number of guys he has ranked lower including Oladipo, DeRozan and Jabari Parker.

Keep your powder dry if things sour in OKC. They wanted him before.

But we have to see this year play out for him. I just don't see him staying in this rut. He shot to well in DEC/JAN before he was injured. Dude shot two air balls last night. Something is wrong in his head. He is still working it out mentally. I like that during the year they do try to expand his game, but I think that comes are a cost right now. Hopefully he is back in a grove soon.

Of course we will see how this year plays out. We can't trade him until the summer anyway. But if a deal is going to happen, it needs to happen this summer. His trade value is going to plummet if he only shows modest improvement next year. Everyone else is going to start seeing what we're seeing now - that he's merely a decent player who is going to cost a ton of money because, for some reason, everyone loves the guy and thinks he is better than he really is.

[hands11]

Ok, maybe keep our power dry this year wasn't the right line there. But it was just one sentence in my comment and it wasn't even a comment to contradict what you posted. Sure. I would consider Beal in a trade for the right piece in return. Maxing him and Wall has been a concern of mine as well. Just commenting that he is slumping right now and I expect he will come out of it.

Just so I'm clear. These are moves to build a title team or a good team ? Because if we are talking title team, we might even have to ultimately move Wall.

Don't get me wrong. I'm a Wall fan. But I'm still waiting to see a team with a max PG ball dominate player win it all.

To win a title, you have to be better than SAS ( players and coach ) and whatever team LeBron is on. Today that's CLE. And they not only have Lebron as their PG/SF/SG/PF. They have Kyrie as their SG who has sick handles and can shot from outside and make crazy drives. And the needed surrounding pieces beyond that, which it looks like they have.

Can Westbrook lead a team to a title ? Curry ? Both are very good teams and Westbrook has been insane. Now lets see if they can mix KD back in. Real nicely balanced team in OKC. Same with GSW. We will see if they can get past SAS or CLE.

I would say Lillard but he isn't max out yet so that team is still invested with lots of other pieces. Including LMA and I see LMA as a Dirk type so POR has a shot. We will see what they can keep. They are getting a free ride with Lillard being so good and only costing 3,340,920 and next year $4,236,286.

Point is, I want to see the model that works that way because CP3, he has no titles and LAC have Blake and DJ. AI didn't get one.

Going to be real interesting this year. OKC might be nasty if they can mix KD in without losing what they are doing being lead by Westbrook. The team has form the way it is. Kanter was a great add. T Jones is back. But can they still play as a team once KD returns ?

But in the end, everyone needs to be better then SAS and CLE. I want to see the formula that works to win a title, not just be good. In the SAS model, Parker isn't max'd out.

If its GSW, POR or OKC, well then Wall needs to get a lot more nasty scoring, shooting, etc. And we need our LMA or KD. Which isn't easy to get. I think Love would make the Wizards better. But not a title design. Adding him doesn't get you better then SAS, CLE, POR.

So until I see it, I'm looking at Lebron, Paul George, K Leonard first. LMA and Dirk teams next. OKC would be right in there if they can mix KD in.

Then teams like HOU with Harden if Howard can dominate the post again.

Going to learn a lot about title team design this playoffs. KD, Leonard, LMA, Milsap might be the best targets. Because until some day when he slows down more, LeBron is still the best title player in the league and SAS is a machine.

[fishercob]

Here's the other beauty about Love to DC: while the Wizards with Love might not be better than the Cavs with Love, the Wizards with Love could well be better than the Cavs without Love. It could totally swing the balance of power in the East.

And while I understand people are down on Beal and Porter for different reasons, I think both would flourish with Wall/Love/Gortat and Pierce in a system that actually spread the floor.

Our new GM (hopefully hired this week) has two jobs -- (1) convincing Love's agent of having him come here and (2) clearing Nene, Webster and whatever other roster needed to sign him outright.

Love to DC is a Goldilocks situation. His Minnesota role was too big. His Cleveland role is too small. His DC role would be just right -- a primary offensive weapon complemented by another star and some young guys he can grow with.

Clearing both Nene and Webster could cost us our first round pick, but it would be worth it if it netted Love. If it did cost a first, ideally it would be our '16 pick, lotto protected. The timing is tricky; we couldn't have a commitment in place from Love yet (I don't think), so we'd need to pick a player that the team we were trading with wanted. But I don't think this is insurmountable.

[Dark Faze]

I'd take him for a typical max but I don't want him on a 2016 max for 25 mill a season. He's not worth it.

I'd like to make moves for all-stars on quality contracts, or potential sixth man types like IT.

I'd absolutely send Seraphin packing. Zero chance I'd give Beal a max.

[nuposse04]

So, I'm sitting here watching the Utah-Kings game, and I looked at D. Williams post all star break stats. As an individual he seemed to have made a night and day improvement under Karl. He's also been improved post all star break without solid PG play as collision has been been out.

Now with the spike in the cap coming, I wonder if he's in the market for a one year deal with a PG that would give him a lot of good looks. If the John Wall effect really is legit, I think he'd be worth a look on cheap deal (if he's willing to gamble on himself).

[hands11]

Here's the other beauty about Love to DC: while the Wizards with Love might not be better than the Cavs with Love, the Wizards with Love could well be better than the Cavs without Love. It could totally swing the balance of power in the East.

And while I understand people are down on Beal and Porter for different reasons, I think both would flourish with Wall/Love/Gortat and Pierce in a system that actually spread the floor.

Our new GM (hopefully hired this week) has two jobs -- (1) convincing Love's agent of having him come here and (2) clearing Nene, Webster and whatever other roster needed to sign him outright.

Love to DC is a Goldilocks situation. His Minnesota role was too big. His Cleveland role is too small. His DC role would be just right -- a primary offensive weapon complemented by another star and some young guys he can grow with.

Clearing both Nene and Webster could cost us our first round pick, but it would be worth it if it netted Love. If it did cost a first, ideally it would be our '16 pick, lotto protected. The timing is tricky; we couldn't have a commitment in place from Love yet (I don't think), so we'd need to pick a player that the team we were trading with wanted. But I don't think this is insurmountable.

Nice write up. I enjoyed the read.

Nup.. D Will would be someone to watch. Clearly picked to high that year but once players get out from under that shadow, they can get re-calibrated and prove to be nice pieces to add. I think T Rob could end up this way as well.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Here's the other beauty about Love to DC: while the Wizards with Love might not be better than the Cavs with Love, the Wizards with Love could well be better than the Cavs without Love. It could totally swing the balance of power in the East.

And while I understand people are down on Beal and Porter for different reasons, I think both would flourish with Wall/Love/Gortat and Pierce in a system that actually spread the floor.

Our new GM (hopefully hired this week) has two jobs -- (1) convincing Love's agent of having him come here and (2) clearing Nene, Webster and whatever other roster needed to sign him outright.

Love to DC is a Goldilocks situation. His Minnesota role was too big. His Cleveland role is too small. His DC role would be just right -- a primary offensive weapon complemented by another star and some young guys he can grow with.

Clearing both Nene and Webster could cost us our first round pick, but it would be worth it if it netted Love. If it did cost a first, ideally it would be our '16 pick, lotto protected. The timing is tricky; we couldn't have a commitment in place from Love yet (I don't think), so we'd need to pick a player that the team we were trading with wanted. But I don't think this is insurmountable.

Love's overrated.

OTOH, Love doing what Gooden does reasonably well for the Wizards ....

Gooden with more rebounds and more threes? Roger that.

[Ruzious]

Interesting that until Gooden came to Washington, he rarely shot 3's and was pretty bad at it when he did shoot them. It must be Wittman that encouraged him to shoot them.

[Sluggerface]

I'd take him for a typical max but I don't want him on a 2016 max for 25 mill a season. He's not worth it.

I'd like to make moves for all-stars on quality contracts, or potential sixth man types like IT.

I'd absolutely send Seraphin packing. Zero chance I'd give Beal a max.

Dude is a top 5 player in the league being overshadowed by two ballhandlers that can approach over 30% usage on any given night. It's crazy what this season has done to Love's reputation.

Actually, it's not crazy because it's the same thing that happened to Bosh.

[Dark Faze]

lol top 5

[80sballboy]

lol top 5

Top 5 power forward?

[J-Ves]

We aren't doing crap this offseason. The team will come back near 100% the same, maybe they use the MLE on a 1 year deal on a guy to replace Seraphin's minutes. If Pierce opts out of his final year, things could get a bit awkward at SF, but hopefully Porter steps up in year 3. And of course if Gooden decides to retire the Wiz will need to shop for a cheap stretch 4... or more likely they will continue to use the over-sized lineups Witt prefers.

[jivelikenice]

^All depends on if we advance out of Round 1 IMO. I'm hoping Pierce opts out. Not that he can't help but this team really needs younger rotational players and he takes a spot. Sure I'd like him at the 4 but there's no indication he's carve out a role there. One FA I'd target (assuming a bland stay as-is offseason)- Brandon Wright. Then use the draft on the best shooting guard available.

My hope is actually they do finally do an overhaul of the FO and we see substantial change. At that point the only safe player IMO would be John Wall.

[FAH1223]

If Pierce opts out, it means he is retiring or going back to the Celtics.

I think he plays out the final year of his deal.

I'd like him back but I'd want him at the 4 or coming off the bench. But we need a new GM/HC badly.

[Dark Faze]

funny thing is Love would never come here with Randy as coach because dude actively tried to ruin his development