Bradley Beal - Part III

[TheSecretWeapon]

Hornacek was easily better than Beal. He was actually good off the dribble. Beal isn't.

Jeff's career ORTG was 117. I doubt Beal will ever have a season close to that.

Through 14 seasons and 33,964 minutes, Hornacek had a career PPA of 148. He had 13 seasons that rate better than any of Beal's seasons so far. Hornacek arrived in the NBA older -- he was 23 as a rookie. Beal's age 23 season will be his 5th.

[gravytrain24]

Hornacek was a good player, but he also played alongside two Hall of Famers. You look at who Beal gets to play with, when he plays, you don't see any All-NBA First Teamers. Like i said, not saying Hornacek wasnt good, but its always nice to be the 3rd best player on your team and not be relied upon day in and day out, like the Wiz put on BB3

[tontoz]

Hornacek was a good player, but he also played alongside two Hall of Famers. You look at who Beal gets to play with, when he plays, you don't see any All-NBA First Teamers. Like i said, not saying Hornacek wasnt good, but its always nice to be the 3rd best player on your team and not be relied upon day in and day out, like the Wiz put on BB3

Beal has never been the first, second or third best player on this team. He has been consistently mediocre, and injury prone.

Hornacek averaged 20/5/5 with 2 steals on a Suns team that won 53 games. He had a TS of 59% and an ORTG of 120. Beal can only dream of doing that.

[gravytrain24]

I cant tell if you're agreeing or disagreeing but firstly, i never mentioned Beals rank on the team, i only said he's relied upon as if he was the 2nd best player. Second, Hornacek had that year and his following year with Philly, at age 28-29, his 5th and 6th year in the league. He was gradually able to progress and not thrown into the fire and told you are the future we drafted you at 3, go be an all star. The expectation that Beal has is way higher than i can assume Hornaceks ever was. I do believe he can be a Hornacek type player overall and i think he has the potential if healthy for a entire season to put up that 20/5/5.

[Dark Faze]

I think we're getting too consumed with advanced stats.

19 ppg, 4 and 3 in 33 minutes a game 45% FG and 40% 3PFG.

Like---I know advanced stats aren't happy, but a lot of teams would kill to have that production at the 2

[pcbothwel]

I agree to some extent... For example, turning the ball over effects his advanced metrics quite a bit, but he really only turns it over when he tries to be a "playmaker". When Wall, or any pg for that matter, turn the ball over a lot you need to be concerned as that is really their job and being able to get other players involved without turning it over needs to be job 1. If your pg turns it over too much you cant simply tell them to do less ball handling/playmaking without throwing your offense in chaos.

Beal is an elite shooter that moves around off the ball and creates space for his shot. Taking the ball handling duties out of his hands in the near term makes is analytics look a lot better and doesn't jeopardize the flow of the offense. Getting to the line and making his FT's are more important to me as that is part of the SG job description...BTW, God I hate Derozan..lol

Same thing for Wall, but in reverse. He can't shoot that well, so his advanced stats take a hit. But his job as a Floor general is to see the floor, manipulate the defense, and get his teammates in positions to score. Because he does that so well, I dont worry about him either because adding another scorer at the 2-4 spot would take that burden off him and make his advanced stats improve.

When your PG cant distribute, your sg can shoot/score, and your bigs cant rebound/protect the rim, thats when you have the problem. Because now you have a skill deficit on the floor and you require another player on the floor to compensate when they cant.

I.E. Noel and MKG with their inability to shoot. While MKG has advanced stats that tell you he is better than Beal, his skills(or lack thereof) require the other 3 players (not the Center) to be strong outside shooters. It makes it harder to piece players together. I have much more faith in Beal's ability to step back and limit his turnovers than I ever do with MKG improving his shot.

[nate33]

I.E. Noel and MKG with their inability to shoot. While MKG has advanced stats that tell you he is better than Beal, his skills(or lack thereof) require the other 3 players (not the Center) to be strong outside shooters. It makes it harder to piece players together. I have much more faith in Beal's ability to step back and limit his turnovers than I ever do with MKG improving his shot.

I agree with this completely. I avoid like the plague wings that can't shoot 3's (MKG), centers than can't defend the paint (Vucevic), and PG's who can't hit from the perimeter at all (MCW). Even if their overall numbers look decent, they are doing significant damage to their team because they are requiring teammates to do exceptional things to make up for their inadequacies.

[tontoz]

Beal is an elite shooter that moves around off the ball and creates space for his shot. Taking the ball handling duties out of his hands in the near term makes is analytics look a lot better and doesn't jeopardize the flow of the offense. Getting to the line and making his FT's are more important to me as that is part of the SG job description...BTW, God I hate Derozan..lol

Beal is not an elite shooter. Beal is good at making catch and shoot 3s but that is all. he has been consistently terrible trying to do anything off the dribble. Taking one dribble and shooting a pullup was routine for Hornacek. Beal sucks at it.

http://bkref.com/tiny/Z1IUY

Beal gets a pass from some people because 1) he is young 2) he was drafted at 3. How much longer can we play the "young guy with potential " card when he shows no sign of improvement year after year? If he was 25 and played on another team nobody would be talking about pursuing him with a big offer.

[tontoz]

I cant tell if you're agreeing or disagreeing but firstly, i never mentioned Beals rank on the team, i only said he's relied upon as if he was the 2nd best player. Second, Hornacek had that year and his following year with Philly, at age 28-29, his 5th and 6th year in the league. He was gradually able to progress and not thrown into the fire and told you are the future we drafted you at 3, go be an all star. The expectation that Beal has is way higher than i can assume Hornaceks ever was. I do believe he can be a Hornacek type player overall and i think he has the potential if healthy for a entire season to put up that 20/5/5.

Based on what, other than wishful thinking? Not all young guys get better. And some guys are chronically injury prone. His 4th season isn't over and he has already missed 74 games. What makes you think he can stay healthy for an entire season?

[Dark Faze]

You're ignoring two of the most important stats

45% FG and 40% 3PFG on reasonably high usage

The advanced stats are whats keeping him from being an all-star, but people continue to forget about the above numbers

[tontoz]

You're ignoring two of the most important stats

45% FG and 40% 3PFG on reasonably high usage

The advanced stats are whats keeping him from being an all-star, but people continue to forget about the above numbers

First of all FG% is a worthless stat for any player that shoots 3s. Secondly Beal has only played 22 games this season. Small sample size theater.

Over his career Beal shoots 43.2% on 2 pt shots. Hornacek's career mark is 51.5% on 2s. Hardly an advanced stat.

[nate33]

You're ignoring two of the most important stats

45% FG and 40% 3PFG on reasonably high usage

His usage isn't even that high. Among guys who launched 200 or more 3-pointers last year, Beal ranked 95th in 3-pointers attempted per minute. That raises questions about his 3P%. It's not THAT hard to be an efficient 3PT shooter if you only take wide open shots.

http://bkref.com/tiny/FHqHz

[Dark Faze]

He's taken a lot more with limited space and off the dribble this year than he ever has and has maintained his percentage--albeit small sample size, but still

[Brapman]

Pistons Fan. Curiously, what's the conversation in Washington about your chances to get Durant given this disappointing season for you, and Beal's injury situation and proclamation that his minutes have to be limited the rest of his career?

[nate33]

Pistons Fan. Curiously, what's the conversation in Washington about your chances to get Durant given this disappointing season for you, and Beal's injury situation and proclamation that his minutes have to be limited the rest of his career?

Nobody knows anything. Obviously, we think our chances would be better if we were in the mix fighting among the top teams for the 2 through 5 seed. But the fact is, we know full well we have worse talent than OKC. If Durant is coming here, it's because it's his home town. If that's his thinking, I'm not sure our record makes all that much difference. The important thing is to make sure he has a pretty good team around him next year. That means Wall, Beal, Porter and Gortat need to finish strong.

I did hear on a recent Zach Lowe podcast that Zach's guest (can't remember who, might have been Kevin Arnovitz) said Durant definitely isn't coming to Washington. I just don't know the basis for that belief. As I understand it, Durant himself doesn't really know what he wants yet.

[Rafael122]

Interesting nugget from the Vertical website:

Teams with an eye on Beal, a restricted free agent this summer, have expressed caution. “He’s one of the best pure shooters in the league,” a general manager told The Vertical, “but I’m scared of him.” Healthy, Beal would be a lock to secure a $15 million-plus annual contract. He still may, but teams – including the Wizards – could seek some protection. An example is Brooklyn’s recent deal with Brook Lopez, the skilled center who has been plagued by foot injuries. Last summer, Lopez signed a three-year, $60 million deal to stay with the Nets. The team protected itself by inserting language that permitted them to cut Lopez’s salary by 50 percent in 2016-17 and 75 percent in 2017-18 if Lopez suffers another significant injury to the fifth metatarsal in his right foot, with benchmarks Lopez can hit each season to fully guarantee subsequent years.

I think this is something the Wiz should look into, protect themselves should Beal miss more time.

[Ruzious]

Interesting nugget from the Vertical website:

Teams with an eye on Beal, a restricted free agent this summer, have expressed caution. “He’s one of the best pure shooters in the league,” a general manager told The Vertical, “but I’m scared of him.” Healthy, Beal would be a lock to secure a $15 million-plus annual contract. He still may, but teams – including the Wizards – could seek some protection. An example is Brooklyn’s recent deal with Brook Lopez, the skilled center who has been plagued by foot injuries. Last summer, Lopez signed a three-year, $60 million deal to stay with the Nets. The team protected itself by inserting language that permitted them to cut Lopez’s salary by 50 percent in 2016-17 and 75 percent in 2017-18 if Lopez suffers another significant injury to the fifth metatarsal in his right foot, with benchmarks Lopez can hit each season to fully guarantee subsequent years.

I think this is something the Wiz should look into, protect themselves should Beal miss more time.

Interesting. That type of clause never occurred to me. Good find!

[nuposse04]

Interesting nugget from the Vertical website:

Teams with an eye on Beal, a restricted free agent this summer, have expressed caution. “He’s one of the best pure shooters in the league,” a general manager told The Vertical, “but I’m scared of him.” Healthy, Beal would be a lock to secure a $15 million-plus annual contract. He still may, but teams – including the Wizards – could seek some protection. An example is Brooklyn’s recent deal with Brook Lopez, the skilled center who has been plagued by foot injuries. Last summer, Lopez signed a three-year, $60 million deal to stay with the Nets. The team protected itself by inserting language that permitted them to cut Lopez’s salary by 50 percent in 2016-17 and 75 percent in 2017-18 if Lopez suffers another significant injury to the fifth metatarsal in his right foot, with benchmarks Lopez can hit each season to fully guarantee subsequent years.

I think this is something the Wiz should look into, protect themselves should Beal miss more time.

Interesting. That type of clause never occurred to me. Good find!

I wouldn't mind that, cause then we're basically betting on Beal actually becoming good (an off chance unfortunately). But if Beal gets a fully guaranteed deal from elsewhere... why would he sign ours?

Interesting to note that the FO "wants" to pay him but are looking for a justification. Hopefully Beal has some sense of decency and plays fair... his agent anyways.

[tontoz]

"one of the best pure shooter in the league"

How do these idiots get GM jobs? Beal can't even shoot over 80% from the foul line.

[nate33]

"one of the best pure shooter in the league"

How do these idiots get GM jobs? Beal can't even shoot over 80% from the foul line.

It really does amaze me how the perception of Beal is so much better than the reality of Beal. How long does it take for the glow of "number 3 draft pick" to fade?