Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
Moderators: montestewart, LyricalRico, nate33
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
- doclinkin
- RealGM
- Posts: 15,104
- And1: 6,835
- Joined: Jul 26, 2004
- Location: .wizuds.
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
Lost post said:
I'm trying to prevent long minutes with KCP at SF so we don't have 3 guys in our back court at 6'5" or under. I do find minutes for him next to Beal, and finishing games, but if we can get a lead early it is easier to hold it later with balanced offense/defense players. Starting our best mismatches though puts pressure on other teams. Used right, playing well, Bertans is that.
Bertans consistently has had the highest +/- of any of our players to this point. Or he did until until Gafford arrived. Bertans is 8 points better on offense per 100 possessions. Gafford is 10 points better, offense/defense combined.
I figured Wes would find a way to start one of our most dangerous weapons. The front office believes in advanced +/- stats. Brooks didn't, Brooks got fired. Wes however created the modern small ball era by designing the Gilbert Arenas led offense that prefigured later iterations and made combo guards and tweener forwards desired commodities in the league. Wes posted our tweener Jamison outside and told him not only shoot as many threes as you want, but shoot more than you want.
Here we have a team full of tweener forwards, one of whom has a remarkable track record at bending defenses. Quick trigger accurate 3FGs shot off screens and in motion. Teams have to mark him. That makes offense easier for our players. Anything that makes your stars even better, is a rare and valuable thing.
Some on here want to pitch Bertans as fast as possible, the front office however clearly values him, literally considering they paid him a sizeable contract. And if you look at our win/loss record, the games where Bertans was shooting well are games that we won. Games where he was out of shape or shooting poorly were when we tanked.
In my lines above I try to make sure Bertans is always in the game with Gafford. If Bertans is shooting well that day, we keep him in, and play him as the perimeter forward instead of the frontcourt one. If his shot is off we yank him and play more versatile players. If he is hot we catch early leads, rack fouls on opponents trying to cover outside and attack lanes at the same time. We Force opposing coaches to send Bigs to chase him, since you know, he is 6'10" and therefore must be a power forward. He is not. He doesn't play the role of interior rebounding Big. But if they want to think that, cool, let them, we don't have to make that mistake and bench him just because he doesn't rebound as well as other tall guys. If you can force the opponent to adjust to you, you have an advantage, you take them away from where they are comfortable and what they do best.
Notice how the opponent personnel changes in these highlights. How the paint is completely empty by the end of the game. Then recall that Wes designed the defensive game plan for this one. Better believe he remembers how Bertans when hot can truly alter the game.
I'm trying to prevent long minutes with KCP at SF so we don't have 3 guys in our back court at 6'5" or under. I do find minutes for him next to Beal, and finishing games, but if we can get a lead early it is easier to hold it later with balanced offense/defense players. Starting our best mismatches though puts pressure on other teams. Used right, playing well, Bertans is that.
Bertans consistently has had the highest +/- of any of our players to this point. Or he did until until Gafford arrived. Bertans is 8 points better on offense per 100 possessions. Gafford is 10 points better, offense/defense combined.
I figured Wes would find a way to start one of our most dangerous weapons. The front office believes in advanced +/- stats. Brooks didn't, Brooks got fired. Wes however created the modern small ball era by designing the Gilbert Arenas led offense that prefigured later iterations and made combo guards and tweener forwards desired commodities in the league. Wes posted our tweener Jamison outside and told him not only shoot as many threes as you want, but shoot more than you want.
Here we have a team full of tweener forwards, one of whom has a remarkable track record at bending defenses. Quick trigger accurate 3FGs shot off screens and in motion. Teams have to mark him. That makes offense easier for our players. Anything that makes your stars even better, is a rare and valuable thing.
Some on here want to pitch Bertans as fast as possible, the front office however clearly values him, literally considering they paid him a sizeable contract. And if you look at our win/loss record, the games where Bertans was shooting well are games that we won. Games where he was out of shape or shooting poorly were when we tanked.
In my lines above I try to make sure Bertans is always in the game with Gafford. If Bertans is shooting well that day, we keep him in, and play him as the perimeter forward instead of the frontcourt one. If his shot is off we yank him and play more versatile players. If he is hot we catch early leads, rack fouls on opponents trying to cover outside and attack lanes at the same time. We Force opposing coaches to send Bigs to chase him, since you know, he is 6'10" and therefore must be a power forward. He is not. He doesn't play the role of interior rebounding Big. But if they want to think that, cool, let them, we don't have to make that mistake and bench him just because he doesn't rebound as well as other tall guys. If you can force the opponent to adjust to you, you have an advantage, you take them away from where they are comfortable and what they do best.
Notice how the opponent personnel changes in these highlights. How the paint is completely empty by the end of the game. Then recall that Wes designed the defensive game plan for this one. Better believe he remembers how Bertans when hot can truly alter the game.
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
- nate33
- Forum Mod - Wizards

- Posts: 70,360
- And1: 22,771
- Joined: Oct 28, 2002
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
doclinkin wrote:Lost post said:
I'm trying to prevent long minutes with KCP at SF so we don't have 3 guys in our back court at 6'5" or under. I do find minutes for him next to Beal, and finishing games, but if we can get a lead early it is easier to hold it later with balanced offense/defense players. Starting our best mismatches though puts pressure on other teams. Used right, playing well, Bertans is that.
Bertans consistently has had the highest +/- of any of our players to this point. Or he did until until Gafford arrived. Bertans is 8 points better on offense per 100 possessions. Gafford is 10 points better, offense/defense combined.
I figured Wes would find a way to start one of our most dangerous weapons. The front office believes in advanced +/- stats. Brooks didn't, Brooks got fired. Wes however created the modern small ball era by designing the Gilbert Arenas led offense that prefigured later iterations and made combo guards and tweener forwards desired commodities in the league. Wes posted our tweener Jamison outside and told him not only shoot as many threes as you want, but shoot more than you want.
Here we have a team full of tweener forwards, one of whom has a remarkable track record at bending defenses. Quick trigger accurate 3FGs shot off screens and in motion. Teams have to mark him. That makes offense easier for our players. Anything that makes your stars even better, is a rare and valuable thing.
Some on here want to pitch Bertans as fast as possible, the front office however clearly values him, literally considering they paid him a sizeable contract. And if you look at our win/loss record, the games where Bertans was shooting well are games that we won. Games where he was out of shape or shooting poorly were when we tanked.
In my lines above I try to make sure Bertans is always in the game with Gafford. If Bertans is shooting well that day, we keep him in, and play him as the perimeter forward instead of the frontcourt one. If his shot is off we yank him and play more versatile players. If he is hot we catch early leads, rack fouls on opponents trying to cover outside and attack lanes at the same time. We Force opposing coaches to send Bigs to chase him, since you know, he is 6'10" and therefore must be a power forward. He is not. He doesn't play the role of interior rebounding Big. But if they want to think that, cool, let them, we don't have to make that mistake and bench him just because he doesn't rebound as well as other tall guys. If you can force the opponent to adjust to you, you have an advantage, you take them away from where they are comfortable and what they do best.
That's pretty much how I see it too. I'm not sure if Bertans or KCP actually starts. If KCP starts, I'll have Bertans come in for him quickly so that he gets minutes with the other 4 starters while KCP gets enough rest to go back in when Beal comes out.
I actually like the rotations better with Bertans starting, but KCP's defense might be needed against certain matchups.
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
- SUPERBALLMAN
- Lead Assistant
- Posts: 4,601
- And1: 1,311
- Joined: Aug 08, 2006
-
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
Here's Fred Katz latest podcast and its on lineups & rotations....
https://player.fm/series/wizards-after-dark-a-washington-wizards-podcast/breaking-down-the-wizards-depth
https://player.fm/series/wizards-after-dark-a-washington-wizards-podcast/breaking-down-the-wizards-depth
"I love it when a plan comes together" - Colonel John "Hannibal" Smith
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
-
9 and 20
- Sixth Man
- Posts: 1,709
- And1: 1,260
- Joined: Mar 28, 2021
-
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
SUPERBALLMAN wrote:Here's Fred Katz latest podcast and its on lineups & rotations....
https://player.fm/series/wizards-after-dark-a-washington-wizards-podcast/breaking-down-the-wizards-depth
I just listened to this. I thought you had to subscribe to the athletic to listen, but I guess not?
While discussing Caldwell-Pope, they referenced Jerome Robinson and contrasted KCP's style of play with Robinson's, who shot the ball every single time he touched it. They were saying KCP would be a much different type of player than Robinson. Still, bringing up Jerome Robinson ruined my evening. Watching that guy play brought me much pain. I just googled him and he is playing for the Bulls' summer league team.
I thought the discussion of Kuzma was interesting too - that he is more suited for the 4 than the 3. They also talked about how Kuzma is a great quote. That's cool, too. With him and Dinwiddie, the post game quotes should be fun.
Can't say I do. Who else gonna shoot?
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
-
Dat2U
- RealGM
- Posts: 24,160
- And1: 7,931
- Joined: Jun 23, 2001
- Location: Columbus, OH
-
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
doclinkin wrote:Lost post said:
I'm trying to prevent long minutes with KCP at SF so we don't have 3 guys in our back court at 6'5" or under.
I don't see an issue with KCP getting major minutes at the 3. I think it's big difference from playing a midget PG like Ish or Raul with two guards vs. using a 6-5 wing with long arms who's known as a plus perimeter defender. Of course he'll struggle against the bigger SFs but there's where I'd like to see Avdija get some run at the position, ideally alongside Bertans.
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
-
dckingsfan
- RealGM
- Posts: 34,956
- And1: 20,477
- Joined: May 28, 2010
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
Dat2U wrote:doclinkin wrote:Lost post said:
I'm trying to prevent long minutes with KCP at SF so we don't have 3 guys in our back court at 6'5" or under.
I don't see an issue with KCP getting major minutes at the 3. I think it's big difference from playing a midget PG like Ish or Raul with two guards vs. using a 6-5 wing with long arms who's known as a plus perimeter defender. Of course he'll struggle against the bigger SFs but there's where I'd like to see Avdija get some run at the position, ideally alongside Bertans.
I am soooo torn on this one. It will be interesting to see what Wes does.
On the one hand, put your bpa on the court. On the other hand - 3 pg line-ups suck. I am with Doc on starting Bertans at SF. My guess is that means Rui starts at PF (I just don't see that changing).
Then it is up to Wes to figure out the rotations against the team we are playing. I just can't see KCP not playing major minutes. I can't believe that Wes will not think he is one of the top 5 on the team?
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
- doclinkin
- RealGM
- Posts: 15,104
- And1: 6,835
- Joined: Jul 26, 2004
- Location: .wizuds.
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
dckingsfan wrote:Dat2U wrote:doclinkin wrote:Lost post said:
I'm trying to prevent long minutes with KCP at SF so we don't have 3 guys in our back court at 6'5" or under.
I don't see an issue with KCP getting major minutes at the 3. I think it's big difference from playing a midget PG like Ish or Raul with two guards vs. using a 6-5 wing with long arms who's known as a plus perimeter defender. Of course he'll struggle against the bigger SFs but there's where I'd like to see Avdija get some run at the position, ideally alongside Bertans.
I am soooo torn on this one. It will be interesting to see what Wes does.
On the one hand, put your bpa on the court. On the other hand - 3 pg line-ups suck. I am with Doc on starting Bertans at SF. My guess is that means Rui starts at PF (I just don't see that changing).
Then it is up to Wes to figure out the rotations against the team we are playing. I just can't see KCP not playing major minutes. I can't believe that Wes will not think he is one of the top 5 on the team?
I actually think Rui may be the odd man out.
Wes is hoping to run a motion offense. To do so you need players who understand the principles and instinctively make the right plays on and off the ball. Setting screens, knowing when to collapse back-door etc. -- these are things Euro teams drill all week in practice. Guys like Bertans and Deni are good fits for that sort of game. Bertans in particular is deadly in a catch and shoot game. Beal has been playing that way since U16 world championships. Harrell runs well out of motion offense. KCP knows his role there. D-widdie is good at setting up the play that leads to the play. Neto grew up in international ball. Kuzma is a good floor spacer and adjusts well when teams try to run him off the line. Winston thrived in this sort of offense in college. All Gafford needs to know is how to set a solid pick or screen. Kispert as well makes smart adjustments in a team offense.
So. If Rui learns a few of the plays and knows where to be and proves hard to stop in those few plays, then awesome. If the game slows down for him in his 3rd year and he learns how to assert himself in the things he does well, then great. So far at times he still looks a little lost when the game gets complicated. His talent bails him out. But when I am drawing up lines looking for the players with the better BBIQ and instincts at the position, I often find Rui is the guy that I have sidelined. Unless I need a one-on-one stopper on defense.
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
-
dckingsfan
- RealGM
- Posts: 34,956
- And1: 20,477
- Joined: May 28, 2010
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
doclinkin wrote:dckingsfan wrote:Dat2U wrote:I don't see an issue with KCP getting major minutes at the 3. I think it's big difference from playing a midget PG like Ish or Raul with two guards vs. using a 6-5 wing with long arms who's known as a plus perimeter defender. Of course he'll struggle against the bigger SFs but there's where I'd like to see Avdija get some run at the position, ideally alongside Bertans.
I am soooo torn on this one. It will be interesting to see what Wes does.
On the one hand, put your bpa on the court. On the other hand - 3 pg line-ups suck. I am with Doc on starting Bertans at SF. My guess is that means Rui starts at PF (I just don't see that changing).
Then it is up to Wes to figure out the rotations against the team we are playing. I just can't see KCP not playing major minutes. I can't believe that Wes will not think he is one of the top 5 on the team?
I actually think Rui may be the odd man out.
Wes is hoping to run a motion offense. To do so you need players who understand the principles and instinctively make the right plays on and off the ball. Setting screens, knowing when to collapse back-door etc. -- these are things Euro teams drill all week in practice. Guys like Bertans and Deni are good fits for that sort of game. Bertans in particular is deadly in a catch and shoot game. Beal has been playing that way since U16 world championships. Harrell runs well out of motion offense. KCP knows his role there. D-widdie is good at setting up the play that leads to the play. Neto grew up in international ball. Kuzma is a good floor spacer and adjusts well when teams try to run him off the line. Winston thrived in this sort of offense in college. All Gafford needs to know is how to set a solid pick or screen. Kispert as well makes smart adjustments in a team offense.
So. If Rui learns a few of the plays and knows where to be and proves hard to stop in those few plays, then awesome. If the game slows down for him in his 3rd year and he learns how to assert himself in the things he does well, then great. So far at times he still looks a little lost when the game gets complicated. His talent bails him out. But when I am drawing up lines looking for the players with the better BBIQ and instincts at the position, I often find Rui is the guy that I have sidelined. Unless I need a one-on-one stopper on defense.
Makes sense. I guess this is the decision that Wes needs to make with Rui unless he takes that BBIQ jump.
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
- gesa2
- Bench Warmer
- Posts: 1,270
- And1: 403
- Joined: Jun 21, 2007
- Location: Warwick MD
-
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
dckingsfan wrote:doclinkin wrote:dckingsfan wrote:I am soooo torn on this one. It will be interesting to see what Wes does.
On the one hand, put your bpa on the court. On the other hand - 3 pg line-ups suck. I am with Doc on starting Bertans at SF. My guess is that means Rui starts at PF (I just don't see that changing).
Then it is up to Wes to figure out the rotations against the team we are playing. I just can't see KCP not playing major minutes. I can't believe that Wes will not think he is one of the top 5 on the team?
I actually think Rui may be the odd man out.
Wes is hoping to run a motion offense. To do so you need players who understand the principles and instinctively make the right plays on and off the ball. Setting screens, knowing when to collapse back-door etc. -- these are things Euro teams drill all week in practice. Guys like Bertans and Deni are good fits for that sort of game. Bertans in particular is deadly in a catch and shoot game. Beal has been playing that way since U16 world championships. Harrell runs well out of motion offense. KCP knows his role there. D-widdie is good at setting up the play that leads to the play. Neto grew up in international ball. Kuzma is a good floor spacer and adjusts well when teams try to run him off the line. Winston thrived in this sort of offense in college. All Gafford needs to know is how to set a solid pick or screen. Kispert as well makes smart adjustments in a team offense.
So. If Rui learns a few of the plays and knows where to be and proves hard to stop in those few plays, then awesome. If the game slows down for him in his 3rd year and he learns how to assert himself in the things he does well, then great. So far at times he still looks a little lost when the game gets complicated. His talent bails him out. But when I am drawing up lines looking for the players with the better BBIQ and instincts at the position, I often find Rui is the guy that I have sidelined. Unless I need a one-on-one stopper on defense.
Makes sense. I guess this is the decision that Wes needs to make with Rui unless he takes that BBIQ jump.
I can’t see them not playing Rui at least 26-28 minutes. Our small chance of actually being really good is almost completely dependent on him or Deni developing into something special.
Making extreme statements like "only" sounds like there are "no" Jokics in this draft? Jokic is an engine that was drafted in the 2nd round. Always a chance to see diamond dropped by sloppy burgular after a theft.
-WizD
-WizD
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
- nate33
- Forum Mod - Wizards

- Posts: 70,360
- And1: 22,771
- Joined: Oct 28, 2002
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
Rui is the only true PF on the roster (except for Gill, I guess). He's the only guy that can match up with guys like Zion, Giannis, Davis, Randall, Siakam and Collins without double-team help. The other guys on the roster just aren't strong enough. Rui will start.
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
-
Frichuela
- Lead Assistant
- Posts: 5,613
- And1: 3,698
- Joined: Feb 25, 2015
-
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
nate33 wrote:Rui is the only true PF on the roster (except for Gill, I guess). He's the only guy that can match up with guys like Zion, Giannis, Davis, Randall, Siakam and Collins without double-team help. The other guys on the roster just aren't strong enough. Rui will start.
Agreed. The question is who fills the starting 3 spot. Fred Katz at the Athletic thinks KCP is the one. I am more inclined to start Bertans given that I expect Gafford to start at the 5 and provide a strong defensive presence. Then, we can play a strong 2 unit with the 3 ex Lakers + Deni and Holiday.
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
-
WallToWall
- Veteran
- Posts: 2,841
- And1: 1,043
- Joined: May 20, 2010
-
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
Why would Rui be the odd man out on the offensive side, if we run the motion offense? He can make cuts, hit the mid-range and can move off the ball. I think the one who will be odd man out would be Gafford. Gafford's strength is in the post (dunks, layups), and that is it. He hasnt proven that he can reliably shoot from anywhere else. Also, he hasn't proven that he can pass well enough to be used in a motion offense. From what little I remember from high school ball, in order for a player to be useful in a motion offense, the player should be able to pass the ball well, know where the ball should go, make cuts, make picks and rolls, and be able to shoot very well from at least 2 spots on the court. Correct me if I am wrong.
I abhor Silver
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
- doclinkin
- RealGM
- Posts: 15,104
- And1: 6,835
- Joined: Jul 26, 2004
- Location: .wizuds.
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
nate33 wrote:Rui is the only true PF on the roster (except for Gill, I guess). He's the only guy that can match up with guys like Zion, Giannis, Davis, Randall, Siakam and Collins without double-team help. The other guys on the roster just aren't strong enough. Rui will start.
He may be the stronger player, but Kuzma rebounds better. Rui thinks is he solely a perimeter player. He is behind in learning the team game, or figuring out how to do much more than play a face-up game on offense. By contrast Kuzma has shown an ability to adjust. His defense in general has picked up over the years, but nothing stands out like his improvement on rebounding:
https://throwdowns.substack.com/p/on-kyle-kuzmas-rebounding-renaissance
As I said Rui may match up defensively better with certain players, but in terms of team play coaches tend to prefer the guys who best implement their schemes and work off each other well. Kuzma's defense was key in the Lakers bubble championship. Yes if we need strength and 1-on-1 defense then Rui will be called upon to be an attack dog stopper, but I don't know how far we go with Rui's lack of understanding on team defense and rebounding. Or off the ball play on offense. But hey, young players learn, Wes no doubt can accelerate Rui's skill to catch up with his strength and talent, but for now Kuzma has a head start. And a championship.
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
-
payitforward
- RealGM
- Posts: 24,747
- And1: 9,166
- Joined: May 02, 2012
- Location: On the Atlantic
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
It's pretty likely that word will (& has) come down from on high that Rui must start. Ted likes the juicy market Rui brings -- &, really, who can blame him?
As to how Kuzma became "an elite rebounder," sometimes I wonder who goes for this stuff? As a rookie, Kuzma averaged 8.1 boards per 40 minutes. This last year, he averaged 8.6 rebounds per 40 minutes.
That's right! He has raised his rebounding by 1/2 a board every 40 minutes! Whoa!
In fairness, Lakers' overall rebounding dropped a bit in those years. Thinking of it that way you could credit him with a little bigger jump. Anyway... better is better.
As well, Kuzma's rebounding dropped his 2d & esp. his 3d year. Hence, if you just look at the change from his year 3 to 4, the increase is a bit more significant. Especially the increase in offensive rebounding.
Part of why Kuzma just posted his best year so far is because he became more of a catch-&-shoot player on offense rather than initiating his own offense. He took fewer shots than he ever had, & he got to the line less than he ever had. But, he took more 3 point shots than ever. Thus his TS% was better than the average of his first 3 years.
Meanwhile, along with the improved rebounding, his turnovers dropped a bit (again likely b/c he was more catch & shoot), his assists went up from the previous year (pass rather than dribble into a turnover).
With all that, it's good to remember that "better" does not equal "good." He isn't a good NBA player yet -- but he's heading in the right direction.
As to how Kuzma became "an elite rebounder," sometimes I wonder who goes for this stuff? As a rookie, Kuzma averaged 8.1 boards per 40 minutes. This last year, he averaged 8.6 rebounds per 40 minutes.
That's right! He has raised his rebounding by 1/2 a board every 40 minutes! Whoa!
In fairness, Lakers' overall rebounding dropped a bit in those years. Thinking of it that way you could credit him with a little bigger jump. Anyway... better is better.
As well, Kuzma's rebounding dropped his 2d & esp. his 3d year. Hence, if you just look at the change from his year 3 to 4, the increase is a bit more significant. Especially the increase in offensive rebounding.
Part of why Kuzma just posted his best year so far is because he became more of a catch-&-shoot player on offense rather than initiating his own offense. He took fewer shots than he ever had, & he got to the line less than he ever had. But, he took more 3 point shots than ever. Thus his TS% was better than the average of his first 3 years.
Meanwhile, along with the improved rebounding, his turnovers dropped a bit (again likely b/c he was more catch & shoot), his assists went up from the previous year (pass rather than dribble into a turnover).
With all that, it's good to remember that "better" does not equal "good." He isn't a good NBA player yet -- but he's heading in the right direction.
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
-
penbeast0
- Senior Mod - NBA Player Comparisons

- Posts: 30,500
- And1: 10,001
- Joined: Aug 14, 2004
- Location: South Florida
-
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
nate33 wrote:Rui is the only true PF on the roster (except for Gill, I guess). He's the only guy that can match up with guys like Zion, Giannis, Davis, Randall, Siakam and Collins without double-team help. The other guys on the roster just aren't strong enough. Rui will start.
I know you keep saying Harrell is only a center but with a stretch 5 like Bryant, Harrell can play the 4 which is his more natural defensive spot as he is awfully short for a 5. And, he's the strongest, the most explosive scorer, and the best rebounder of all our 4's (or possibly 5's, Gafford hasn't played enough to know about him yet). I could see him winning the starting 4 spot and being our second highest scorer and lead rebounder. I think it's harder for him with Gafford as neither has shown much shooting range and they need him to play 5 until Bryant returns. I could see him winning the 5 spot too but that leaves us with no rim protector which I'm not thrilled with.
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
-
payitforward
- RealGM
- Posts: 24,747
- And1: 9,166
- Joined: May 02, 2012
- Location: On the Atlantic
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
It's not that nate says it. It's that he's never played the 4. Why do you think that is? 
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
- doclinkin
- RealGM
- Posts: 15,104
- And1: 6,835
- Joined: Jul 26, 2004
- Location: .wizuds.
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
WallToWall wrote:Why would Rui be the odd man out on the offensive side, if we run the motion offense? He can make cuts, hit the mid-range and can move off the ball. I think the one who will be odd man out would be Gafford. Gafford's strength is in the post (dunks, layups), and that is it. He hasnt proven that he can reliably shoot from anywhere else. Also, he hasn't proven that he can pass well enough to be used in a motion offense. From what little I remember from high school ball, in order for a player to be useful in a motion offense, the player should be able to pass the ball well, know where the ball should go, make cuts, make picks and rolls, and be able to shoot very well from at least 2 spots on the court. Correct me if I am wrong.
The difference is in their role in any offense. Rui is a face-up ball-handling player who posts 2 assists per 100 possessions. Gafford is a lob-dunk rim runner who posts about the same. You don't expect Gafford to pass much, he rarely has the ball for more than a second. Rui averaged 46 touches per game, Gafford about 27 touches with an average number of dribbles per touch of .3.
In a motion offense Gafford only needs to screen off the ball, run the pick and roll, run back door for lob dunks if the action is developing elsewhere. He's got a good sense of timing with that, or perhaps Westbrook made him look good.
Rui as a face-up player needs to know where to be, when to pass, when to cut, how to anticipate the action. If it sounds like I'm down-rating him, I'm not trying to. Its just that even in international ball Rui is commonly standing around with his hands dangling, not moving to get open, not screening off the ball. He comes alive when the ball is in his hands, but it is predictable what he is going to do: he is going to shoot it. Not pass it. No give-and-go. No cuts off the ball to catch the other team napping. And of all the players on the court Rui should be one of the best to set a pick to spring a guard loose. Or to roll out of a P&R. But if you look at the various play types run
Rui never was the roll man in Pick and Roll.
Never was the ball handler in P&R.
Rarely ran off a cut. (Rui 11% to Gafford's 30%)
Never came off a screen
Neverattacked off a hand off.
Rarely scored off putbacks.
Rui went ISO about as often as Beal.
But more than anything else, Rui waited for a spot up shot, almost as often as Bertans. And he scored in transition. The two plays that require little understanding of team play. Solo play is where he is comfortable.
It's not to say Rui can't run in a motion offense. But so far he hasn't.
The most glaring of the above is his lack of putback scoring. That is something well within his abilities, it only requires desire and aggression and the willingness to say: me, I got this one, mine. Hustle. Plus a reflexive understanding of angles, timing. Knowing where your teammates are and where you are at the moment when the ball goes up. If you don't have that feel you will stand and watch, forgetting for the moment that it is your job to play basketball, you are not here to witness other people do it.
Rui is a powerful physical talent, but his effect on court is occasionally passive, I think primarily because it doesn't come instinctively to him. He's caught watching. At some point it could all click and his understanding of the game will catch up to his talent. Or Wes may tutor him and he may grow swiftly into his role. Maybe Westbrook stunted his development by hogging all the possessions and exemplifying selfish play on offense. But if you are drawing up sets saying: who is going to make the smart read out of this play, who is going to make a sharp cut to get open, Rui is simply not the first guy you pencil in to the role.
Meanwhile, Kuzma has made his game about being in motion. Check his highlights for the year, he is running full speed off screens to quickly catch and shoot. His release is almost as fast as Bertans'
Maybe he and Bertans are too similar. Me I'd use that as a strength. I'd be drawing up mirror image plays on both sides of the court, whichever side has the advantage. Beal and D-widdie probing and threatening. Kuz and Bertans running off curls. Gafford setting picks, making cuts, ready to catch and flush. Yeah we won't be physically dominant, but if Wes is about maximizing a teams strengths based on what it does well, well, I think we can run some teams ragged with long ranged 'tall ball'.
I do think we will be far better when Rui can actually play Big. Up to now though he spends his offseason attending Big Guard school, not learning rebounding and low post footwork.
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
- doclinkin
- RealGM
- Posts: 15,104
- And1: 6,835
- Joined: Jul 26, 2004
- Location: .wizuds.
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
payitforward wrote:I
As to how Kuzma became "an elite rebounder," sometimes I wonder who goes for this stuff? As a rookie, Kuzma averaged 8.1 boards per 40 minutes. This last year, he averaged 8.6 rebounds per 40 minutes.
That's right! He has raised his rebounding by 1/2 a board every 40 minutes! Whoa!
In fairness, Lakers' overall rebounding dropped a bit in those years. Thinking of it that way you could credit him with a little bigger jump. Anyway... better is better.
As well, Kuzma's rebounding dropped his 2d & esp. his 3d year. Hence, if you just look at the change from his year 3 to 4, the increase is a bit more significant. Especially the increase in offensive rebounding.
Okay, me I go for this stuff. Sure, we can say 'elite' is overstating it. However, while his rebounding dropped off with the addition of LeBJ and then AD, he managed to recover and then some. This despite being posted to the SF position, even as a perimeter player he managed to increase his rebounding significantly, especially in Offensive boards. Even while LeBJ and AD siphoned heavy minutes in the front court. Hell they added monster rebounder Andre Drummond, who averaged 15 boards per 40min. And Montrezl Harrell (10/40).
So, okay elite maybe not, but Kuz was among the better rebounders playing out of the SF spot, especially in offensive boards work. With his increased effort and focus on this skill it seems to be he could post better numbers in the front court, even better perhaps than the bigger stronger Hachimura, who posted 6 boards per 40 minutes, ostensibly playing PF.
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
- doclinkin
- RealGM
- Posts: 15,104
- And1: 6,835
- Joined: Jul 26, 2004
- Location: .wizuds.
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
But mostly. I'll trust Wes to tinker with it. It's august. Just tryna bring some content LOL. Sigh.
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
-
payitforward
- RealGM
- Posts: 24,747
- And1: 9,166
- Joined: May 02, 2012
- Location: On the Atlantic
Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.
doclinkin wrote:payitforward wrote:I
As to how Kuzma became "an elite rebounder," sometimes I wonder who goes for this stuff? As a rookie, Kuzma averaged 8.1 boards per 40 minutes. This last year, he averaged 8.6 rebounds per 40 minutes.
That's right! He has raised his rebounding by 1/2 a board every 40 minutes! Whoa!
In fairness, Lakers' overall rebounding dropped a bit in those years. Thinking of it that way you could credit him with a little bigger jump. Anyway... better is better.
As well, Kuzma's rebounding dropped his 2d & esp. his 3d year. Hence, if you just look at the change from his year 3 to 4, the increase is a bit more significant. Especially the increase in offensive rebounding.
Okay, me I go for this stuff. Sure, we can say 'elite' is overstating it. However, while his rebounding dropped off with the addition of LeBJ and then AD, he managed to recover and then some. This despite being posted to the SF position, even as a perimeter player he managed to increase his rebounding significantly, especially in Offensive boards. Even while LeBJ and AD siphoned heavy minutes in the front court. Hell they added monster rebounder Andre Drummond, who averaged 15 boards per 40min. And Montrezl Harrell (10/40).
So, okay elite maybe not, but Kuz was among the better rebounders playing out of the SF spot, especially in offensive boards work. With his increased effort and focus on this skill it seems to be he could post better numbers in the front court, even better perhaps than the bigger stronger Hachimura, who posted 6 boards per 40 minutes, ostensibly playing PF.
Well, it was only the word "elite" that prompted my reaction. The points you make are good ones.
Kuzma played PF his first two years. His productivity fell way off his 3d year when he was more or less exclusively a 3. The very good news is that he recovered & more, improved significantly, last season. That's the right trajectory. Especially since SF is where he should be playing. Or, simply say that he should be, mostly, a perimeter player on offense.
Thing is, if you look at what's changed for him over those 4 years -- what made him drop off his 2d & 3d years & made him more productive his 4th year -- it really is the improvement in his rebounding. Despite my critical comment above.
In fact, it's almost exclusively his improvement in offensive rebounding!
So, if you think of Kuzma as a 4, his defensive rebounding is a little above average, & his offensive rebounding is way above average. But, if you think of him as a 3, his defensive rebounding is way above average, & his offensive rebounding is absolutely tremendous.
Best comparison? Otto Porter -- only not nearly as good as Otto's 2 best years. But, I think that's the idea for Kuzma. Be like good Otto Porter.






