2024 Draft Thread - Part III

[payitforward]

Tiers schmears.

I want Edey. Sheppard. Castle. Ariel Hukporti. Trade the #2 + Kuz to get me that....

Love it. But, if we're trading #2 & Kuz, get me Jonathan Mogbo as well! Please.

[Ed Wood]

I don’t know how much this is the impact of arranging players with specific labels that define the grouping process and how much it’s just differences in valuation/preference but while I more or less agree with the labels and what players are being put in each group (this is to Dat) I don’t agree with the outcome that Edey is that highly placed (for example) or that Edey is that much higher than Missi (as a easier player to compare because of their positional alignment).

[dckingsfan]

Three more days of guessing!

[AFM]

Just realized this year's draft will be over two days?? Wednesday and Thursday.

[joshuacf]

Tiers schmears.

I want Edey. Sheppard. Castle. Ariel Hukporti. Trade the #2 + Kuz to get me that.

Edey: Can't shoot 3's (literally at all) and will never develop the ability to shoot. We had this conversation about him last year and you noted that he was making 3's in workouts and had the potential to develop his shot. Then he comes back to Purdue and attempts a total of two 3's all season. Folded against Fairleigh Dickinson University being guarded by low-major players, the absolute biggest of whom was 7 inches (!!) and 60 pounds lighter than Edey. A relic of a bygone era.

Sheppard: Actually wouldn't hate trading back and taking him, he's by far the best of the crop you named and he has legitimate NBA skills.

Castle: Can't shoot, didn't play PG for UConn but wants to play PG in the NBA. A product of the Dan Hurley machine, who's players have a poor track record in the NBA. Not a scorer by any means.

Ariel Hukporti: Not familiar with him at all but assume we could grab him as an UFA.

[nate33]

Tiers schmears.

I want Edey. Sheppard. Castle. Ariel Hukporti. Trade the #2 + Kuz to get me that.

Edey: Can't shoot 3's (literally at all) and will never develop the ability to shoot. We had this conversation about him last year and you noted that he was making 3's in workouts and had the potential to develop his shot. Then he comes back to Purdue and attempts a total of two 3's all season. Folded against Fairleigh Dickinson University being guarded by low-major players, the absolute biggest of whom was 7 inches (!!) and 60 pounds lighter than Edey. A relic of a bygone era.

You can be skeptical of Edey's ability to defend at the NBA level with all the elite guards and all the spacing, but it's pretty ridiculous to argue that Edey was somehow a bad offensive player in college who "folded" in big games. The guy's numbers are some of the best in the history of college basketball and he carried a pretty bad Indiana team to the Championship.

[Dat2U]

Dang, Dalton Kenecht and Devin Carter got dissed in Dats tiers.

Knecht has a low floor. He might be unplayable defensively. I think he's more of a streaky shooter than a great one like Doug McDermott. Doesn't see the floor well, struggles beyond 2 dribbles in half court settings.

Carter's floor is higher as a defender but he's more of an undersized wing than a PG. My biggest concern is with his shot mechanics - he basically shoots a moon ball. Very Jared Culver-ish. Not sure he gets it off without the space he won't be able to create at the NBA level. I think his shot will eventually need to be re-worked.

[joshuacf]

Tiers schmears.

I want Edey. Sheppard. Castle. Ariel Hukporti. Trade the #2 + Kuz to get me that.

Edey: Can't shoot 3's (literally at all) and will never develop the ability to shoot. We had this conversation about him last year and you noted that he was making 3's in workouts and had the potential to develop his shot. Then he comes back to Purdue and attempts a total of two 3's all season. Folded against Fairleigh Dickinson University being guarded by low-major players, the absolute biggest of whom was 7 inches (!!) and 60 pounds lighter than Edey. A relic of a bygone era.

You can be skeptical of Edey's ability to defend at the NBA level with all the elite guards and all the spacing, but it's pretty ridiculous to argue that Edey was somehow a bad offensive player in college who "folded" in big games. The guy's numbers are some of the best in the history of college basketball and he carried a pretty bad Indiana team to the Championship.

Edey carried *Purdue* to the championship.

I'm not sure where I said Edey was a "bad offensive player in college". He was a great offensive player, in college. As was Luka Garza, Kofi Cockburn, Drew Timme, and countless more players who's games don't translate to the NBA. He's a dinosaur.

And he folded against FDU, sorry. Played 36 minutes and scored 21 points against a team who didn't even win their conference and only made the NCAA Tournament because Merrimack was inelegible. A historic collapse. Argubally the worst loss in college basketball history.

[tontoz]

I think people are underrating Knecht due to his age. In addition to being very productive he showed out at the combine.

Among all participants at the combine Knecht was:

2nd in lane agility
1st in shuttle run
T11 in the sprint
T12 in max vertical

He measured 6'5 with a +4 wingspan. He might be the best sg prospect in the class.

[doclinkin]

Tiers schmears.

I want Edey. Sheppard. Castle. Ariel Hukporti. Trade the #2 + Kuz to get me that.

Edey: Can't shoot 3's (literally at all) and will never develop the ability to shoot. We had this conversation about him last year and you noted that he was making 3's in workouts and had the potential to develop his shot. Then he comes back to Purdue and attempts a total of two 3's all season. Folded against Fairleigh Dickinson University being guarded by low-major players, the absolute biggest of whom was 7 inches (!!) and 60 pounds lighter than Edey. A relic of a bygone era.

An era I argue is making a return. Considering how many of the playoff teams are going huge. That the counter to the pace and space era is to control the boards, control the pace, score on the interior. And now that NBA refs are giving defensive players more leeway to crowd the offense, you bring back an era of force basketball. Players who can score while being fouled and who force opponents to foul, will force referees to call those obvious fouls. The hoop and the harm. Three the hard way. A far more reliable shot than pitching from outside. My vision says these players will be of greater importance in future years.

Team building wise it is quicker to build a team around your monsters in the middle (Minny, 6ers, Indy, Cavs, Knicks, Bucks, to say nothing of Jokic who is his own beast) than it is to grow a roster full of skilled and efficient shooters at every position (Celtics). 3pt shooting is nice from a center, if he is good enough to force opposing bigs to challenge outside. But if your guy is posting a .660 true shooting on 33% usage, you are doing fine without it. And without the high variance that comes from chucking from outside. If your Big posts a 23% rebounding rate (and a near 20% offensive rebounding rate) you can afford to let opponents sling away from outside, and miss more often than not. Their misses are your certain buckets. Especially if you are so dominant on the interior that, as Edey did, your opponents are forced to foul you with a .809 FTa rate (number of FT attempts per FG attempt). I wouldn't put it past Edey to develop a 3pt shot (check his combine results if you want to see what 'never' learning to shoot looks like).

Watch on YouTube

https://www.nba.com/stats/draft/combine-non-stationary?dir=D&sort=POSITION
60% from 3 shooting while in motion. Looks pretty good to me...

But he didn't need it in the NCAAs and likely won't need it at the next level. 3pt shooting bigs are a trick play, not a necessary strategy. (In fact the biggest benefit of having a Big who can shoot from the top of the key is that it gives them a head start to get back on Defense. I can see Zack adding this skill just so he wouldn't have to run as much to get in place).

Still. The counter to pace and space is to control the possession game. Ground and pound. Let them chuck and miss. Rebound everything. Slow it down, bring it up, score unstoppably. The only difficult part of the strategy is ensuring you can get the ball in to the interior. For that you either need skilled ballhandlers (Dat's argument) or tall passers all around. AND you need a Big who catches well.

On defense, let them shoot. All you need is a center who can play the 3 second hopscotch in and out of the lane. OR, as Edey does, control the paint by filling the lanes that lead to the paint. Play the angles, a la Brook Lopez, deter interior attacks without having to block them out of the air. Then eat every rebound.

3pt shooting by centers is nice. But still rare. Consider that even Jokic shoots 2.9 threes per game at 36%. Embiid shoots 3.6 at 38%. That means that 60-odd percent of those shots are misses. With the opponent's biggest player posted outside, and your big underneath ready to hoover it up. Note how KAT fell apart in the playoffs when his 40+% 3pt shooting hit a natural dip. It's not like Gafford was chasing him to the outside and challenging his shots.

That said FDU was 2 years ago. A game where he 'folded' by going 7 for 11 (plus 7-10 from the line) with 15 boards, 3 blocks and only 2 TO's and 1 foul. I'd take for my team any player whose 'bad' game is 21pts/15rb/3blocks.

Then he came back the next year and was even more efficient, and only failed in the Championships because he faced a team that was bigger on the outside with a dominant defensive guard who could prevent entry passes and completely swallow up his team's ballhandling captain (the vulnerability of relying on a single skilled ballhandler to deliver the rock). Player whose failing was to be unable to carry the team past his own 33% usage rate, while winning back to back player of the year awards. Yes. I'd take a relic of a bygone era whose only comparators at the accomplishment are HOFers Bill Walton and Ralph Sampson.

Sheppard: Actually wouldn't hate trading back and taking him, he's by far the best of the crop you named and he has legitimate NBA skills.

Castle: Can't shoot, didn't play PG for UConn but wants to play PG in the NBA. A product of the Dan Hurley machine, who's players have a poor track record in the NBA. Not a scorer by any means.

Castle: a product of a machine that made the slow-footed Clingan the most dominant defensive force in the NCAAs by stuffing the quick ballhandling PGs at the point of attack to allow UConn's drop coverage big to lumber up court and set up shop. AND who was strong enough to cover the roll man when Clingan stepped outside to challenge and teams forced a switch to put their Big against the UConn guard. When you have a player who is quick enough to challenge PGs and strong enough to wall off Bigs, you have a special player.

Ariel Hukporti: Not familiar with him at all but assume we could grab him as an UFA.

Big chunk of muscle, dominant offensive rebounder in overseas play. Outplayed Sarr in head to head competition, punking him down low. Older rookie (22yrs) an he had knee issues which have knocked him back in the draft, but consensus mocks still have him in the mid-late 2nd round. Still, its nice to have a ferocious rebounder and a player who likes to bang underneath, in contrast to Sarr who plays timid in the paint. I saw Hukporti while tracking Sarr and wondered who that big kid was. If he can stay healthy he could be a nice high energy beast off the bench.

[doclinkin]

As for defense.

Watch on YouTube

Defensive three-second rule
Also known as illegal defense, this rule is called when a defensive player spends more than three seconds in the free throw lane without actively guarding an opponent. To be considered actively guarding, a defender must be within arm's length of an opponent and in a guarding position.

Consider what 'arms length' means to a guy with a near 8 foot wingspan (7'10.75"). The lane is only 16 feet wide. Edey is one Zack-sized step from arms length of anywhere in the paint.

I honestly would not be terribly startled if the trade-up rumors about San Antonio were a smokescreen on Risacher, but instead they snatched Edey to play with Wemby. I'm not the only one who sees where this is trending. Pop is usually 2 years ahead of everybody. There was a reason he was trying to force Sochan as his tall over-the-top passing guard. The league is going big. Might as well get there first.

[badinage]

Does it give anyone pause that Travis Schlenk is part of our evaluation team? I mean, yes, some success at G St. (where he was a contributor, not the decision-maker), and he took a chance and scored on Huerter, but he drafted Trae (over Luka!), drafted DeAndre Hunter, drafted Okongwu, etc., and the Hawks never realized their potential. Jalen Johnson is a nice piece — I think that was a Schlenk pick? — but it’s pretty uninspiring.

Yes, I know Dawkins is making the calls, but I’m just wondering. Just tossing it out there.

Most of these evaluators are NOT good. Presti is an anomaly. It’s highly unlikely Dawkins — for all his impressiveness — ends up being like Presti; it’s more likely he ends up being like Schlenk.

We have faith. Of course we do.

I like the Bilal pick, and the move up to get him. And I like the pick of Vukcevic. Both promising. Both pieces to build with.

But can someone give an anxious fan — as the draft approaches — some legit reasons to feel optimistic about Dawkins’s acume or his process?

[joshuacf]

An era I argue is making a return. Considering how many of the playoff teams are going huge. That the counter to the pace and space era is to control the boards, control the pace, score on the interior. And now that NBA refs are giving defensive players more leeway to crowd the offense, you bring back an era of force basketball. Players who can score while being fouled and who force opponents to foul, will force referees to call those obvious fouls. The hoop and the harm. Three the hard way. A far more reliable shot than pitching from outside. My vision says these players will be of greater importance in future years.

Team building wise it is quicker to build a team around your monsters in the middle (Minny, 6ers, Indy, Cavs, Knicks, Bucks, to say nothing of Jokic who is his own beast) than it is to grow a roster full of skilled and efficient shooters at every position (Celtics). 3pt shooting is nice from a center, if he is good enough to force opposing bigs to challenge outside. But if your guy is posting a .660 true shooting on 33% usage, you are doing fine without it. And without the high variance that comes from chucking from outside. If your Big posts a 23% rebounding rate (and a near 20% offensive rebounding rate) you can afford to let opponents sling away from outside, and miss more often than not. Their misses are your certain buckets. Especially if you are so dominant on the interior that, as Edey did, your opponents are forced to foul you with a .809 FTa rate (number of FT attempts per FG attempt). I wouldn't put it past Edey to develop a 3pt shot (check his combine results if you want to see what 'never' learning to shoot looks like).

.

How are Indiana, the Cavs, or the Knicks built around monsters in the middle? They're built around strong guard play.

I wouldn't put it past Edey to develop a 3pt shot (check his combine results if you want to see what 'never' learning to shoot looks like).

You said this last year when Edey shot well in workouts. The combine shooting drills mean nothing. If he can shoot well, why didn't he shoot during the CBB season? But yes, Zach Edey is a better shooter than Jared McCain because he shot better in the combine.

But he didn't need it in the NCAAs and likely won't need it at the next level. 3pt shooting bigs are a trick play, not a necessary strategy.

The NCAA's are a different ballgame from the NBA. The stuff that works at the NCAA's doesn't necessarily work in the NBA. Why is Kofi Cockburn not dominating the NBA right now? He didn't need a 3 ball in the NCAA's.

[Frichuela]

The speculation of Sarr to the Wiz rages on…we shall see what happens on Wednesday…

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=GWeuz7j_sc5cBYZzdD92Tw

[tontoz]

The odds of the Spurs drafting Edey are about the same as the odds of the Wizards signing me to the MLE.

[closg00]

Dang, Dalton Kenecht and Devin Carter got dissed in Dats tiers.

Knecht has a low floor. He might be unplayable defensively. I think he's more of a streaky shooter than a great one like Doug McDermott. Doesn't see the floor well, struggles beyond 2 dribbles in half court settings.

Carter's floor is higher as a defender but he's more of an undersized wing than a PG. My biggest concern is with his shot mechanics - he basically shoots a moon ball. Very Jared Culver-ish. Not sure he gets it off without the space he won't be able to create at the NBA level. I think his shot will eventually need to be re-worked.

Well you definitely have more intel on both of them as-far as their weaknesses are concerned, from my eyeball test, the games, and highlights, they both looked like ballers who would fit right in, we shall see...

[leswizards]

You see a lot of people using luka Garza to bash Zach Edey. First, I am pretty certain that it is the fallacy of false equivalency. Second, luka is 6’10, while Zach is 7’5”. Third, their career college numbers are close but Zach’s are better. Fourth, Purdue was far better as a team than Iowa was, yet outside of zach, luka probably had a better supporting cast than zach. Fifth, Luka is actually playing his way into the nba. He has played very limited minutes, but he has looked damn good in those minutes.

[doclinkin]

An era I argue is making a return. Considering how many of the playoff teams are going huge. That the counter to the pace and space era is to control the boards, control the pace, score on the interior. And now that NBA refs are giving defensive players more leeway to crowd the offense, you bring back an era of force basketball. Players who can score while being fouled and who force opponents to foul, will force referees to call those obvious fouls. The hoop and the harm. Three the hard way. A far more reliable shot than pitching from outside. My vision says these players will be of greater importance in future years.

Team building wise it is quicker to build a team around your monsters in the middle (Minny, 6ers, Indy, Cavs, Knicks, Bucks, to say nothing of Jokic who is his own beast) than it is to grow a roster full of skilled and efficient shooters at every position (Celtics).

How are Indiana, the Cavs, or the Knicks built around monsters in the middle? They're built around strong guard play.

Ok not Indiana. More and more Myles Turner does feature as an outside shooting Big to provide spacing. Siakam and Hali both take advantage and rely on that space. And is a mobile switching defender on the outside. So he makes the opposite point than mine.

The Cavs however play two seven footers. Neither of whom is a skilled outside shooter. The Cavs succeed on the strength of their interior defense, and whichever of the two guards steps up. Their tiny combo guard Garland has fallen off with the refs' altered defensive rules emphasis.

The Knicks freely rotate their Bigs on the interior, and saw their rise in the standings correspond with their beefy forward intentionally playing closer to the basket instead of hucking from outside the paint. Randle shot over 8 3's a game the year before, dropped to 5-ish this year. When healthy they evenly switch between Robinson & Hartenstein, playing Achiuwa significant minutes with Robinson/Randle out. Thibbs makes sure to always have a true Big on the floor. When teams go small on him, he goes bigger. In the playoffs you saw Hartenstein would step out of bounds on the endline to make space for guard penetration, jumping inbounds when the shot went up to establish position for offensive boards. The Knicks lived on the offensive boards this year, one of the few teams that focuses on them instead of heavily emphasizing transition defense as many teams trended during the peak of small ball.

I wouldn't put it past Edey to develop a 3pt shot (check his combine results if you want to see what 'never' learning to shoot looks like).

You said this last year when he shot well in the combine. The combine shooting drills mean nothing.

Show me how many games Purdue lost due to Edey's inability to shoot 3's.
Otherwise defend why it is relevant for him to have shot them in games.

Just because it was pointless for him to take them, does not mean he is unable to do so.

This is a player who stays an additional hour after practice working on hook shots and bank shots with both hands, on both sides of the basket, and will make the team bus wait until he makes his number. His form on that practice shot looks smooth and confident. Slow, but no hitch or mechanical flaws. High overhead, pretty arc, good backspin, all net. That is not the look of a player who "can't shoot three's (literally at all)" but instead resembles a player who does not waste a lot of time on things that are unnecessary. If he needs the shot, he will work on the shot.

[prime1time]

It looks like Sarr will be the pick. And in very interesting news, he doesn't want to be a 5. It'll be interesting to see how we use him if we draft him but basically, we're looking at a 7'1 wing. Ball handling, shooting, shot creation, play making, these will all be skills that Sarr will need to work on. I don't really have a comp for this so all I can say is if we draft him it will be a very interesting journey.

[doclinkin]

The odds of the Spurs drafting Edey are about the same as the odds of the Wizards signing me to the MLE.

Yeah it is my wildass hot take that would look like a nostradamus vision if it panned out. You got to throw up a crazy shot every now and again.

I do think the Spurs would be a great fit for Edey. Wemby being so mobile that a drop-only Big would fit fine behind him. And preserve his durability against other monster bigs.

I also think Edey will go higher than most mocks have him.

But the Spurs trading to #1 to take him is significantly unlikely. But at 8?... again, I wouldn't be shocked. Even if I was the only one who wasn't.