Shams: Kuz and Baldwin to Bucks for Middleton, Johnson, '28 Pick Swap

[chonestown]

AJ is fun. Obviously, skinny, but giant wingspan and his burst is electric. Can overdribble and his finishing is a work in progress, but there's a lot to work with. Looks to be a good on-ball defender already. Don't know how long it will take him to become a player, but I think he's more of a "when" guy as opposed to an "if" guy. Want him to do well.

[Frichuela]

I guess in a round about way, we're hoping PHX/POR/MIL are worse than us in 2027-2028 I guess right? Because if we're still bad, then the pick won't convey.

So perhaps Dawkins/Winger are looking to be good next season at the very least.

I don't think so. I think they're view is that:

Milwaukee may end up trading Giannis before he's up on a free summer '28.

Phoenix is running out of quick fix scenarios and will likely blow it up, or age out and implode naturally in the next year.

If we hit on mega stud(s) in '25 or '26 (seems like basically a 52% or so chance both years of a top 4ish pick), we could make a leap by the back half of '26-'27 or the '27-'28 season, at which point our picks move from locked top 5 in '25, top 5-6 in '26, to potentially outside the lottery in '28, these swaps would give us a chance to dip back into the lottery hoping to land either the third megastud, or at complimentary one for the 0-3 we land in the next 3 classes.

It actually feels like a really intelligent plan for GM/crew that were left with virtually no flippable pieces to add ammo along with our natural tanking picks '24-'28, normally teams blowing it up do what Houston and OKC did, but our idiot GM's before these guys flushed the value of our own assets to zero as we all know, and so they basically have been acquiring dart throw later 1st round pick selections, and a pile of pick swaps to try to augment our natural suck years in '23-'27. It's pretty much the smartest thing we probably could have done (other than Trade Kuzma last year, and trade Deni for '25-'26 assets, rather than crappy '24 and speculative '29 first).

You can see what the thinking is, and honestly, its the first time we've ever seemed to have a coherent plan since 2010-'14, and probably the only other time in my lifetime I felt our FO had a genuine plan rather than improv initiated by primarily talentless evaluators (I know Ferry was supposedly good).

'25 Top 5 first

'26 Top 5-6 first, and pick swap

'27 Speculative first

'28 speculative first, 2 pick swaps

'29 speculative first, and Portland's first


And that giant pile of 2nds.

Interesting. Definitely feels like a plan, I'm still infinitely more jealous of the gigantic treasure island that OKC runs, but all things considered, it's not a bad strategy considering the miserable situation they were in 19 months ago when they took over.

Consiglieri- GREAT post. You summarized quite well what their thinking process appears to be.

Now we need luck. 14% probability of Cooper Flagg and a 40% probability of a top 3 pick (Flagg, Harper, Bailey) in this 2025 draft. And then, rinse and repeat in the 2026 draft.

[The Consiglieri]

You can not rule out the positive effect Middleton will have on the kids vs. Kuzma. You don't want Sarr and Bub learning from Kuzma.

Poole is still here too. So until they move Poole, the cancer is still here. And no, I don't believe that Poole is a positive influence, no matter how hard the Gizzards FO tries to positively spin Poole's presence.

Looking at the Poole contract details, it definitely looks like we are stuck with him period, and will not be able to ever trade him until winter of his expiring in early '27 because other teams will demand pick(s) from us to eat the mammoth salary. There's really no reason to trade him. We just have to roll for another 2 to 2.5 seasons with him in house, period, nobody is likely to eat 34ish million a year without taking something we can't afford to give, and it doesn't really hurt us any to keep him around, we will suck with or without him either all of those seasons or all but a half or so of those seasons.

The only way I move Poole, period, is if we keep all our picks and prospects in such a transaction, no pick swaps, no futures, no prospects. Who on earth would do that from the other side? Considering his crazy salary? We got away with it once with Phoenix, but at this point, teams seem to be getting wise to taking on formerly high end talent with escalating horrible contracts. I'm highly skeptical we can move a third mistake like we did Wall, and Beal, with so few consequences (just Wall's "lottery land mine" sitting in our attack, hopefully unlikely to ever go off).

[JRoy]

Curious what WAS fans thought about the deal. Looks like the consensus opinion seems to be addition by subtraction?

[closg00]

We also get another 20 year old... Just turned 20 in December.

The Bucks board doesnt seem too happy that they included AJ Johnson. I'm very happy that Kuzma is gone and we may get some young talent out of this.

They would have been more upset if they had given-up Tyler Smith, which they did not

[The Consiglieri]

Curious what WAS fans thought about the deal. Looks like the consensus opinion seems to be addition by subtraction?

W/the botched almost trade to Dallas they screwed up last year, this was probably the most we could get (top 25-50 prospect from '24, Pick Swap we likely don't use, but might if we get major lottery and selection luck, and a vet we may be able to flip).

The debate on Kuzma was which risk to embrace:

Take the bird in the hand, and trade Kuzma immediately for multiple firsts, 1 in a crappy draft.

Wait, take the risk that Kuzma gets hurt, or runs in to aged based suck issues, in order to get better draft capital in better drafts later.

They went with option 2, understandable, but risky, and it was wrong, or at least played out to the worst case scenario of those options (he got older and he sucked infinitely more while being out of shape, and his joy for washington evaporated in 10 months lol).

At this point, the pick swap, the dart throw prospect, the vet to be traded later is worse than the '24 trade but not as bad as I was expecting a month ago (a couple of worthless 2nds). At least the trade value climbed up a good 30-50% versus where it was, and I think most of us will take that, plus the added value of playing the kids, rather than his sorry ---.

Feel bad for Milwaukee, they're running their last 2.5-3 dice rolls on the Giannis era, hoping for one last golden moment, but Kuzma is not going to change anything, he's a chairs on the titanic kind of situation. Empty points and some size, but inefficient me first stupidity. Honestly, if I were Milwaukee, me being me, I'd be moving Giannis (actually already would have moved him last summer along w/the other talent) and trying to reboot for the '25 and '26 classes, because there are no more titles happening for them, but maybe they want their Giannis forever kind of run. I get it, but titles aren't gonna happen at this point, from what I can see, and if they flip him now, its still possible to get transformative value depending upon whom they flip him too but times running out on the biggest pay days.

[Eli Babak]

Getting rid of Kuz is already a W. Let's go!

[AFM]

You can not rule out the positive effect Middleton will have on the kids vs. Kuzma. You don't want Sarr and Bub learning from Kuzma.

Poole is still here too. So until they move Poole, the cancer is still here. And no, I don't believe that Poole is a positive influence, no matter how hard the Gizzards FO tries to positively spin Poole's presence.

To me Kuz is easily the worst half of the Trash Brothers. I guess I have to retire that nickname now. RIP THE TRASH BROS.

[dckingsfan]

[J-Ves]

You can not rule out the positive effect Middleton will have on the kids vs. Kuzma. You don't want Sarr and Bub learning from Kuzma.

Poole is still here too. So until they move Poole, the cancer is still here. And no, I don't believe that Poole is a positive influence, no matter how hard the Gizzards FO tries to positively spin Poole's presence.

This is incredibly unfair to Poole who has played well for us this year

[queridiculo]

According to Chris Haynes, it's a 2028 pick swap. Feels like Dawkins/Winger are banking that the Bucks will be bad in 2028.

They're also banking that the Wizards will be better thank the Bucks

[AFM]

Should I go lay down my Blatche bobblehead in front of Kuzma's cafe as a memorial? RIP THE TRASH BROS. WE HARDLY KNEW YE.

[doclinkin]

You'd keep the 3rd and Portland would swap with us. Sorry, realize the way I phrased it was not right in this case. You have the right to swap with the lower pick of PDX-MIL.

Is this even possible? Were the Bucks able to trade a pick swap on the same pick twice?

It's very weird, but basically Milwaukee's trade with Portland means they get the more favorable pick between their own and ours that year. You now get the more favorable pick between your own and the less favorable of those two.

Shorter way of saying it is I think you'd only exercise the swap if Washington is better than both Portland and Milwaukee by then (I think?)

This is how things shook out after the Stepien rule prevented teams from trading picks. Swaps and swaps of swaps are more common.

Basically it works best in the Wiz' behalf if all parties end up as lottery picks. Or if both Portland and Milwaukee miss the playoffs and the Wiz don't. The Wiz get a free ticket to the lotto if so.

In that scenario Portland basically gets to add all the Bucks' ping pong balls to their own pool.
If the balls bounce out that Portland's pick is better, then the Wiz basically get all the Bucks lotto combos added to their own chances.

Like:

You could imagine a potential scenario where the Bucks bottom out (Giannis enticed away, flipped for picks, rebuild begins).
The Blazers are still struggling in the dogfights out West and miss the bottom rungs of the playoff ladder.
Meanwhile the Wiz draft well enough to mess around and win a play-in game or the like.
Portland gets the choice pickings of the Bucks and their own combinations. Meanwhile the Wiz get to try to push for playoff experience, but still earn a lottery talent.

[dckingsfan]

You can not rule out the positive effect Middleton will have on the kids vs. Kuzma. You don't want Sarr and Bub learning from Kuzma.

Poole is still here too. So until they move Poole, the cancer is still here. And no, I don't believe that Poole is a positive influence, no matter how hard the Gizzards FO tries to positively spin Poole's presence.

To me Kuz is easily the worst half of the Trash Brothers. I guess I have to retire that nickname now. RIP THE TRASH BROS.

Yep, hell yes - RIP TBs (a particularly nasty virus). And given that - this was a really good trade. Props to the FO.

Even better, I am guessing they can do the same thing with Middleton at next years' trade deadline especially if they have him come off the bench in a low minute scenario (to stay healthy).

[AFM]

RIP TRASH BROS… AN ERA OF BASURA BBALL LOST TO THE ANNALS OF TIME

[dckingsfan]

RIP TRASH BROS… AN ERA OF BASURA BBALL LOST TO THE ANNALS OF TIME

[The Consiglieri]

Well, we'll be getting top 5-7 lottery picks more than likely the next two years, possibly the next 3, if we end up hitting on any of these, more than likely we will be better than Milwaukee by '28 or '29, especially if Milwaukee is forced to trade Giannis between '25 and '27.

From what I'm reading on Middleton, it definitely sounds like he's either a buy out, or only a trade option by winter '26. Doesn't sound like he's a guy we can really flip now or this summer.

[dckingsfan]

Well, we'll be getting top 5-7 lottery picks more than likely the next two years, possibly the next 3, if we end up hitting on any of these, more than likely we will be better than Milwaukee by '28 or '29, especially if Milwaukee is forced to trade Giannis between '25 and '27.

From what I'm reading on Middleton, it definitely sounds like he's either a buy out, or only a trade option by winter '26. Doesn't sound like he's a guy we can really flip now or this summer.

Yep. You try to make him "available" at the next trade deadline. How you do that is doing the best you can to make sure he doesn't get injured - more easily said that done with Middleton. Worse comes to worse, he expires.

[TGW]

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