Stein - Reggie Jackson to Washington with a future first-round pick for Jared Butler and four second-round picks

[AFM]

An unusual trade to say the least! Key points:

1. Jared Butler had, essentially, zero trade value. True of any 2-way player.

2. AJ Johnson turned 20 two months ago. He went #23 last June -- 1 pick before Kyshaun.
His trade value is, essentially, a little bit higher than Kyshaun's. Like getting a R1 pick.

3. I like Butler & hope he gets minutes in Philly. But I'd much much rather have AJ Johnson! That piece of the trade is a huge win!

4. Thus -- essentially -- we took on the remainder of Reggie's '24-5 salary in order to get 2 R1 picks for 4 R2 picks.

A terrific trade in other words!

Are you purposefully conflating two trades? I haven't had breakfast yet so my brain isn't working properly but I'm confused...

[closg00]

This trade STINKS.

Jared Butler is good. It's unbelievable that on this poo ass roster, he never got a chance to show what he was capable of. Hell, you can make the argument that he was the best guard on the roster.

And they traded 4 SRPs for the least favorable of clear playoff teams, so a pick in the low 20's. Porbably the last pick in the first since it's the Thunder. Since when is pick 28-30 worth four SRPs? The value is so terribly off, and you have to take Reggie Jackson's corpse off their hands. WTF.

I am not so sure about this either, like Deni, Jared was on the way up. Philly gets all those 2nd rounders + a rising player like Jared.

Malcom is expiring and Jared/Bub could have manned the Point going forward, Butler fit our timeline (AJ is raw as hell). OTOH we get to see who drops to us next-year.

[bsilver]

I'm happy for Butler. Maybe now he'll get playing time on a decent team. Except for maybe Brogden who's always injured, I think he was the best guard on the team. I'm with TGW on this one. That #1 pick will be at the very bottom of the round.

[payitforward]

The structure of this trade is sufficiently strange that it's easy to see why people here are simply reacting rather than thinking it through carefully. So, let me lay it out as I see it:

This was a brilliant trade.

1. We took on the rest of Reggie's $ this year. NBD.
2. We gave up a 2-way player. Someone in his 4th year whom 30 teams did not see as worth the 15th spot on their rosters. NBD.
3. We sent out 4 R2 picks. Assuming that on average they are mid-round 2, their value would seem to be about the same overall as a single #20 pick. (See - http://nbasense.com/draft-pick-trade-value/2/kevin-pelton-2)

In return we got, essentially, 2 R1 picks (Johnson & a future).

I'm known as someone who values R2 picks. & for good reason. But 2 R1 picks are worth way way more than 4 R2 picks.

Brilliant!

[AFM]

The structure of this trade is sufficiently strange that it's easy to see why people here are simply reacting rather than thinking it through carefully. So, let me lay it out as I see it:

This was a brilliant trade.

1. We took on the rest of Reggie's $ this year. NBD.
2. We gave up a 2-way player. Someone in his 4th year whom 30 teams did not see as worth the 15th spot on their rosters. NBD.
3. We sent out 4 R2 picks. Assuming that on average they are mid-round 2, their value would seem to be about the same overall as a single #20 pick. (See - http://nbasense.com/draft-pick-trade-value/2/kevin-pelton-2)

In return we got, essentially, 2 R1 picks (Johnson & a future).

I'm known as someone who values R2 picks. & for good reason. But 2 R1 picks are worth way way more than 4 R2 picks.

Brilliant!

But we got Johnson in the Kuzma trade. This trade was 4 R2 picks for a single R1 pick next year. Am I missing something?

[bsilver]

An unusual trade to say the least! Key points:

1. Jared Butler had, essentially, zero trade value. True of any 2-way player.

2. AJ Johnson turned 20 two months ago. He went #23 last June -- 1 pick before Kyshaun.
His trade value is, essentially, a little bit higher than Kyshaun's. Like getting a R1 pick.

3. I like Butler & hope he gets minutes in Philly. But I'd much much rather have AJ Johnson! That piece of the trade is a huge win!

4. Thus -- essentially -- we took on the remainder of Reggie's '24-5 salary in order to get 2 R1 picks for 4 R2 picks.

A terrific trade in other words!

Are you purposefully conflating two trades? I haven't had breakfast yet so my brain isn't working properly but I'm confused...

He is conflating 2 trades! Of course it would be a "brilliant/terrific" trade if AJ Johnson was part of the Jared Butler trade.

[The Consiglieri]

A late first rounder can be very valuable when combined with a mid-FRP to move up into the lottery.

That's what it kind of felt like to me. That they're trying to position themselves to make a move up in '26, they have multiple 2nds, I think, still, plus a late 1st, plus a likely top 5-7 first. I get the sense they'll do a consolidation trade to try to move up into the teens via the 2nds, and the 1st and/or some player plus the first type deal. We'll see, but I think what the trade was about was consolidation of assets to improve our kind of punching power in '26 on the back of this '25 class and it was worth it, to them, even in a loss in terms of net value, to create greater trade up flexibility and over draft capital value in the '26 class, via losing a bit of their dump truck full of 2nd's stash.

[The Consiglieri]

I think there is some PR/psychological value to a FRP over a bunch of SRPs. In a future trade, another team will prefer saying to their fanbase they received a FRP (or X number of FRPs).

So the Wizards are that team now quibbling over an arbitrary line separating the the late first round and the early second round of the draft.

I don't think so, I don't think they're idiots. I think they are trying to consolidate seconds four, five, six years from now or so, for a first in what they view as either their last full tank mode draft, or their second to last full tank mode draft, and a draft that theoretically looks at least okay, for now, say compared to 2024.

I think this is all about having as many bullets as possible in the '26 draft to maneuver, and they're willing to do it by sacrificing seconds from drafts in a time period when they should no longer be in tank mode. They're basically trying to infuse as much draft capital value as possible into '25, '26 and '27. It makes some sense from that context.

I don't think its as simple as 4 seconds are as valuable as like the 29th, because anyone with math skills knows that it's not true. It definitely seems more like: We want punching power in '26, more than we want some dart throws fiveish years from now in round 2s of multiple drafts (especially since they literally still have a dump truck full of seconds from the drafts in the second half of this decade).

[trast66]

Its a fair enough trade for both sides. I can see moving that first and some remaining seconds on draft night to move up if really like someone in the early 20's (assuming that pick will be late 20s). Also some contenders may want that first as it will allow them to trade other firsts (Stepien). All comes down to how we draft and develop.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Then again, we wouldn't have to quibble over the value of this FRP if the Wizards had not given Beal that stupid no trade clause preventing them from getting the FRPs he should've brought.

[doclinkin]

I'm known as someone who values R2 picks. & for good reason. But 2 R1 picks are worth way way more than 4 R2 picks.

Brilliant!

This is the part that amuses me the most. A win as far as I'm concerned, getting PIF to state flatly that R1 picks are worth more than a mess of R2.

[Benjammin]

Reggie Jackson waived apparently.

[The Consiglieri]

Then again, we wouldn't have to quibble over the value of this FRP if the Wizards had not given Beal that stupid no trade clause preventing them from getting the FRPs he should've brought.

Not really, the NTC converted it from a Mild pay off, to an anchor contract with no payoff, but either way he signed a comically ridiculous contract in 2022.

The true story of Beal, which a handful of us understood, and most were in denial about, was the dude needed to be traded quickly on a timeline that suited the best maxed class based draft capital after Wall's injury in '19. The Question was going to be, trade him at the '19 deadline? Trade him in '20 even though you know that class largely sucks? Trade him in '21? His deal was gonna be up, so you had to figure out how to time the deal knowing the '19 class was top heavy and then fell apart, the '20 class was terrible, the '21 was okay, and the '22 was pretty good. I don't know how much of that they could've known in '19, but as '19 rolled into '20 it would have become clearer, the league seems to have a pretty clear idea on top end quality of classes about 18-24 months in advance.

Regardless, what was critical was that he had to be traded for a full tear down and reboot to recoup as many picks as possible before he got the max. You could target that meh '19 and '20 classes, and I want to be clear and fair in stating that I wanted him traded period by Feb of '19. I was flexible on timing, because my argument was try to time the trade to max whatever class between '19 and '21 was best, but he had to be moved before injuries hit or he demanded a trade Butler style and we got screwed. Instead people floated around in denial that he loved DC and would be fine with playing out his career with a 20-35 win crapper of a team for 90% of his career which was ludicrous to me at the time and still ludicrous. The second he got the bag, and he was going to demand a trade, that's what happens a good 85-90% of the time said player is on a lottery hopeless crapper side, and it was 100% what I expected and it happened.

What makes it even worse though, is that his career peak in a lot of ways ended up damn near perfect for a tear down rebuild trade with those back to back mega seasons in '19-'20 and '20-'21. The fact that he wasn't traded at the deadline in '21 or summer '21 afterwards is such a colossal example of roster mismanagement and owner and FO malpractice that it should have been possible to Dan Snyder Leonsis and Sheppard immediately, summer of '21. But of course they had even worse in store for us a year later.

The NTC just made a disaster, a hazmat, nuclear waste level disaster, instead a Category 5 hurricane level disaster. Either way, post contract we were going to be leveled to Chicxulub crater level disaster site, the NTC was whip cream and cherries, it wasn't the disaster itself, it just added another couple of levels of hell to it (trying to mix as many metaphors as any human ever has here).

[payitforward]

Butler is not a player "on his way up."
He's a 2 way guy in his 4th year who will turn 25 this Summer & has not established himself.

No reason to hold on to him, & he has no trade value. Nor was there any real chance he'd be with us next year.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

This trade STINKS.

Jared Butler is good. It's unbelievable that on this poo ass roster, he never got a chance to show what he was capable of. Hell, you can make the argument that he was the best guard on the roster.

And they traded 4 SRPs for the least favorable of clear playoff teams, so a pick in the low 20's. Porbably the last pick in the first since it's the Thunder. Since when is pick 28-30 worth four SRPs? The value is so terribly off, and you have to take Reggie Jackson's corpse off their hands. WTF.

I agree. Butler is certainly better than Carrington. He defends and distributes better than Poole. Four seconds are better than one end of round 1 pick.

I hate this deal.

[doclinkin]

Coincidientaly it's the same Tommy Sheppard apologists who refused to accept that he didn't know WTF he was doing. It's not going to change the fact that this front office so far is failing this rebuild.

Ehhh, maybe, I wasn't an apologist for him.

I think overall the read on Tommy was: thank god he's not Ernie. Otherwise the question marks had to do with his draft record (meh) and how much of a lapdog he was for Ted. Or for Beal. But he did draft the sainted Deni Avdija, so he had that going for him. And he would pull out some wild 5 team trades that seemed unlikely to happen, chiefly the Westbrook for Wall magic trick. Personally I really enjoyed the Westbrook year. That's the most fun I'd had since the Gortat + Wall era. Possibly since Arenas. But everybody hated the Beal contract.

Tommy was a nice guy, likable, but a leftover from a time that Wiz fans would prefer to forget. And I for one was critical of his tendency to draft nice guys who worked hard. The way pet owners tend to select critters that remind them of themselves. Also he had a Gonzaga fetish and would pretty much only trade with LA.

I didn't like that he didn't seem to have a plan, but like Grunfeld would just react to whatever this year's problems were. The fact that we had to trade Rui to make sure Deni would be played by whatever coach was a failure of leadership.

[doclinkin]

I don't know. When we traded Deni for a 2028 2nd and a 2030 2nd I was told those 2nds are practically worthless as they're way off in the distant future. But now all of a sudden, they're extremely valuable.

This isn't exactly the trade of the decade, but I like the idea of using some of our extra seconds to get a first next year. And no, a 20-something first isn't useless, we just drafted George #24...

I think this front office is showing their strategic use of 2nd rounders. They value them in bulk, but use them for movement more than selections. From here its nice to have an innovative and intentional strategy from management. They have a vision and are executing a plan. That part is new from the part of Management of this team. Nobody can say they don't make dynamic decisions. Hell they broke the board today, lol, it won't load on my laptop or my phone because of the crossfire WingerDawkins have created.

[gambitx777]

This is one of the stranger trades I've seen. They wanted change for a dollar And we had 99 cents in our pocket. So we got a cent and that cent might make the difference if we can buy the right player with that dollar

Sent from my SM-S926U1 using RealGM mobile app

[payitforward]

Definitely a fun day -- &... we've won 3 games in a row. So... go Wiz!!

[nate33]

My first reaction to this trade was to dislike it. But upon seeing which SRP's were sent out, I'm now pretty neutral on it.

I mostly only value SRP's in the 30-40 range. The 2027 and 2028 SRP's going out look like they will be in the 40's. And hopefully we are good by 2030 when our own SRP conveys, so that should be in the 40's or later. That said, 4 SRP's for one very late FRP doesn't seem so great. It would be one thing if that FRP was #20 or so, but it's almost surely going to be #29 or #30.

The loss of Butler doesn't concern me. I like him, but he is a backup guard, not a difference-maker. His value was that he was underpaid at vet-minimum money, but we are not in position to reap value from that condition. We were never going to be able to trade him for more than what we just did, and in Summer 2026, the likelihood was that he would depart for another team anyhow.