2025 Draft Thread - Part 3

[nate33]

DQ immediately becomes the best offensive player on this team and its not even close. No way he passes us if our GM is any good.

I've been saying this, but i think our GM is fixated on long, no-game-having athletic specimens.

They are fixated on every player being an average or better defender. They will not draft Queen at #6. I'm not even sure they would take him at #18.

[payitforward]

The trade that makes sense to me is Middleton + Kispert + #6 for Paul George + #3.

Then we flip Paul George to Phoenix for Beal (turning George's 3-year contract into Beal's 2-year contract) and then buy out Beal.

Holy Moly -- Ted, hire this guy!

Only, instead of buying out Beal for cash, we convince him to retire w/ a deal that turns the money he's owed into stock in Monumental. Then give him a big retirement hoopla event, put his banner on the wall, etc. Everyone wins!

[nate33]

Gonna check this out....

Watch on YouTube

I'm not comfortable with the skill level if he's a F. The length is really good but he's less than 200 lbs so C may not be ideal. His best attribute is F mobility with
C length but the C-like skill means he can't take advantage of that benefit offensively. The Giannis comparison does not exist - Noa's face up game appears to still be in its infancy stage.

I tend to believe he is one of those, 'can do a little of everything, but not really excels at anything' types. Defensively, while he's long, he's not a true rim deterrent. And while mobility is good, the motor could use some juice. I'd pass because he doesn't have one thing he can truly rely on - and I don't know the FT rate is translatable. He could really struggle offensively to start out his career and I still question how good his hands are.

He is a defensible pick as a project at 18 but I wouldn't be too interested. I would probably freak out if he was the pick at 6.

He is a freak athlete with great measureables, and he plays with a good motor and puts up good numbers and a good on/off differential despite having no refined basketball skills whatsoever. You gotta love that he can produce despite not knowing what he is doing. That speaks to his competitiveness, basketball instincts, and willingness to be physical.

Essengue is a massive project with a high ceiling and a low floor. Like with any project, the real question is his character and work ethic. He has so much work ahead of him, both on his strength and on skill development. I'd like to know more about his background. How long has he been playing basketball? Is there a good reason that his skills are so undeveloped? How hard does he work in practice? These are questions that need to be answered with interviews and background checks more so than watching film. Without access to that type of research, I don't really know how to grade him.

At this point, I'd have to place Maluach ahead of him on my board just because I know Maluach has a firm floor as a rotation big. But if the Wizards end up drafting Essengue after extensive interviews and background checks, I'll be open-minded.

[DCZards]

DQ immediately becomes the best offensive player on this team and its not even close. No way he passes us if our GM is any good.

I've been saying this, but i think our GM is fixated on long, no-game-having athletic specimens.

The Zards FO preference appears to be long, athletic players who have shown the ability to play outstanding D and the potential to develop into good to decent offensive players at a minimum.

Both OKC and the Pacers are in the finals primarily because of their defense. That’s the model going forward, especially since the NBA has made it clear that it’s alright to play physical, aggressive D.

[DCZards]

The trade that makes sense to me is Middleton + Kispert + #6 for Paul George + #3.

Then we flip Paul George to Phoenix for Beal (turning George's 3-year contract into Beal's 2-year contract) and then buy out Beal.

Holy Moly -- Ted, hire this guy!

Only, instead of buying out Beal for cash, we convince him to retire w/ a deal that turns the money he's owed into stock in Monumental. Then give him a big retirement hoopla event, put his banner on the wall, etc. Everyone wins!

Beal needs 161 points to pass Elvin Hayes and become #1 on the Bullets/Zards all time scoring list.

If he returns to DC I’m sure he’ll insist on breaking Hayes’ record before he agrees to retire or a buyout.

[doclinkin]

I've had Ace at 3 for months. His motor on D and on the boards is something we can count on from the start. His offense will take some development but there is a lot of possible upside.

Strangely he shot much better on contested 3s than on open ones. I expect him to improve a lot on open 3s similar to the way I felt about Bub.

I liked his response on this question. About driving directly at defenders and taking shots over them.

He said something to the effect of: “they might be bad shots to you, but they’re not bad shots for me. Because I practice those shots”. That he practices against double teams, triple teams etc on purpose. And so he makes those shots in games.

I forget if it was Kobe or KD (maybe TMac?) but I read a quote once from a shooter that said having a defender in front of him essentially helped with depth perception. The way some players miss technical FTs when no one else is at the line.

Ace may have measured shorter than expected, but his standing reach is like he’s 6’10” anyway. So it doesn’t affect his shot. I suspect he just doesn’t stand up straight. Lol.

He’s my guy if we can trade up or if something wacky happens and he falls.

[Frichuela]

I've had Ace at 3 for months. His motor on D and on the boards is something we can count on from the start. His offense will take some development but there is a lot of possible upside.

Strangely he shot much better on contested 3s than on open ones. I expect him to improve a lot on open 3s similar to the way I felt about Bub.

I liked his response on this question. About driving directly at defenders and taking shots over them.

He said something to the effect of: “they might be bad shots to you, but they’re not bad shots for me. Because I practice those shots”. That he practices against double teams, triple teams etc on purpose. And so he makes those shots in games.

I forget if it was Kobe or KD (maybe TMac?) but I read a quote once from a shooter that said having a defender in front of him essentially helped with depth perception. The way some players miss technical FTs when no one else is at the line.

Ace may have reassured shorter than expected, but his standing reach is like he’s 6’10” anyway. So it doesn’t affect his shot. I suspect he just doesn’t stand up straight. Lol.

He’s my guy if we can trade up or if something wacky happens and he falls.

Yep. I am increasingly in your camp on this one. And as noted before, my gut feeling is that Dawkins will try hard to trade up for him.

[DCZards]

Some of us wouldn’t have a problem trading 6 & 18 to move up to 2 to draft Harper. Do we make that same deal for #3 and Ace?

#6 and 18 to Philly for #3 and 35?

[doclinkin]

I'm not comfortable with the skill level if he's a F. The length is really good but he's less than 200 lbs so C may not be ideal. His best attribute is F mobility with
C length but the C-like skill means he can't take advantage of that benefit offensively. The Giannis comparison does not exist - Noa's face up game appears to still be in its infancy stage.

I tend to believe he is one of those, 'can do a little of everything, but not really excels at anything' types. Defensively, while he's long, he's not a true rim deterrent. And while mobility is good, the motor could use some juice. I'd pass because he doesn't have one thing he can truly rely on - and I don't know the FT rate is translatable. He could really struggle offensively to start out his career and I still question how good his hands are.

He is a defensible pick as a project at 18 but I wouldn't be too interested. I would probably freak out if he was the pick at 6.

He is a freak athlete with great measureables, and he plays with a good motor and puts up good numbers and a good on/off differential despite having no refined basketball skills whatsoever. You gotta love that he can produce despite not knowing what he is doing. That speaks to his competitiveness, basketball instincts, and willingness to be physical.

Essengue is a massive project with a high ceiling and a low floor. Like with any project, the real question is his character and work ethic. He has so much work ahead of him, both on his strength and on skill development. I'd like to know more about his background. How long has he been playing basketball? Is there a good reason that his skills are so undeveloped? How hard does he work in practice? These are questions that need to be answered with interviews and background checks more so than watching film. Without access to that type of research, I don't really know how to grade him.

At this point, I'd have to place Maluach ahead of him on my board just because I know Maluach has a firm floor as a rotation big. But if the Wizards end up drafting Essengue after extensive interviews and background checks, I'll be open-minded.

That’s my deal. He’s not my guy. And if he was I’d rather get him on a trade up from 18 or back from 6. But saying what a guy ‘is’ or is not seems short sighted when you consider he started his pro season at 17 years old.

If you pick him it’s because you know a teenager has a lot of development ahead of him. If a kid this young is producing at a high level and carrying his team into the playoffs —and actually improving on his shortcomings in the most important games— then you can reasonably project him to continue to improve with big league trainers and coaching.

He was off my radar most of the season but he is doing the Bilal thing of peaking when it matters most.

Again the only nit I pick with the Dat assessment on drafts is that there’s no curve for grading by age. Tough to say a guy will be this or that compared to another player when they’re actually performing at a higher level than the comparator was at the same age.

My same deal with Sorber/Wolf. Thomas Sorber as a freshman in the Big East (3rd toughest conference) outperformed Wolf as a freshman in the Ivy League. Compare the freshman Wolf’s 62% FT percentage and sad 48% 2FG to Sorbers 72% FT and 60% 2FG against far tougher opposition.

Younger. Bigger. Producing similar numbers this year as Wolf this year but at an earlier age. Me I’m betting on the improvement of the young guy who comes in with an already veteran game. If the numbers are close, take the younger one. Especially if he’s already a better defender.

[NatP4]

DQ immediately becomes the best offensive player on this team and its not even close. No way he passes us if our GM is any good.

I've been saying this, but i think our GM is fixated on long, no-game-having athletic specimens.

The Zards FO preference appears to be long, athletic players who have shown the ability to play outstanding D and the potential to develop into good to decent offensive players at a minimum.

Both OKC and the Pacers are in the finals primarily because of their defense. That’s the model going forward, especially since the NBA has made it clear that it’s alright to play physical, aggressive D.

Will add, they seem to value non ball-dominant players with atleast some playmaking upside.

This is why I don’t think they will be interested in Traore, who is more of a traditional ball-dominant pass first PG. Same with Topic last year.

Tre Johnson really fits the description…

[AFM]

Some of us wouldn’t have a problem trading 6 & 18 to move up to 2 to draft Harper. Do we make that same deal for #3 and Ace?

#6 and 18 to Philly for #3 and 35?

Hell no, respectfully. I’m not sold on anyone at 3 being clearly better than who’s available at 6. Is Ace Bailey really a sure thing compared to Tre Johnson?

[NatP4]

Some of us wouldn’t have a problem trading 6 & 18 to move up to 2 to draft Harper. Do we make that same deal for #3 and Ace?

#6 and 18 to Philly for #3 and 35?

I think that’s a significant tier drop-off. Even if they went with Edgecombe, I don’t see a primary option superstar ceiling guy.

Bailey is a respectable swing for the fences, but the bust potential is off the charts.

[doclinkin]

Some of us wouldn’t have a problem trading 6 & 18 to move up to 2 to draft Harper. Do we make that same deal for #3 and Ace?

#6 and 18 to Philly for #3 and 35?

Hell no, respectfully. I’m not sold on anyone at 3 being clearly better than who’s available at 6. Is Ace Bailey really a sure thing compared to Tre Johnson?

Longer. Better man-on defender. Better rebounder. Shot blocker. Steals. Above the rim athleticism. Switchability from perimeter to interior defense.

Sure thing? No. But the upside and measurables are higher.

That said I like a lot of who may be available at 18. Sorber. CMB if he falls. Fleming. Etc.

I’ll trust Dawkins to make a good deal but would rather do a PG13 salary dump and tack on a half dozen 2nd round picks than miss out on this years mid firsts.

[Rand McNally]

The trade that makes sense to me is Middleton + Kispert + #6 for Paul George + #3.

Then we flip Paul George to Phoenix for Beal (turning George's 3-year contract into Beal's 2-year contract) and then buy out Beal.

Beal is owed roughly $111M, that would be a massive buyout. Phoenix can offer about $80M due to their salary cap situation, maybe we can offer more, I don’t know. Brad would not take $80M. $110M big price to move up 3 spots, even allowing for the $72M savings on Middleton and reminder of Kispert. Ishiba has been bad, but not sure he would take on Paul George contract.

If you allow for the $74M in savings on Middleton and Kispert, then we are paying $37M to move up from #6 to #3. I think that is probably the going rate for moving up high in the lottery.

My guess is the very most Beal would accept in a buyout is the NTMLE, assuming a team like the Clippers would give it to him for 2 years.

You have to factor in the opportunity cost of having dead (thus untradeable) money on the books for the next two seasons.

Further, you have to game out the rest of PHX's offseason to the best of your ability to assess the risk around them making the playoffs next year. While the chances of them jumping the Wizards in next year's lottery are unlikely today, the Wizards pick swap with PHX next year gives WAS a backstop against a specific type of lottery disaster.

If you're paying considerably to move from 6 to 3 -- whatever form that payment takes -- you need to be really convinced about who are you are taking at 3. It's not that it can't work, but further patience might be the more prudent course.

Ones' assessment of PG also matters here. If he's completely cooked, then maybe he's a trojan horse that helps enhance the PHX draft equity WAS hold. Or maybe he's an asset you can rehab and move to someone who strikes out in free agency.

[AFM]

Some of us wouldn’t have a problem trading 6 & 18 to move up to 2 to draft Harper. Do we make that same deal for #3 and Ace?

#6 and 18 to Philly for #3 and 35?

Hell no, respectfully. I’m not sold on anyone at 3 being clearly better than who’s available at 6. Is Ace Bailey really a sure thing compared to Tre Johnson?

Longer. Better man-on defender. Better rebounder. Shot blocker. Steals. Above the rim athleticism. Switchability from perimeter to interior defense.

Sure thing? No. But the upside and measurables are higher.

That said I like a lot of who may be available at 18. Sorber. CMB if he falls. Fleming. Etc.

I’ll trust Dawkins to make a good deal but would rather do a PG13 salary dump and tack on a half dozen 2nd round picks than miss out on this years mid firsts.

Weren’t you the one that said athleticism is frequently confused for potential? Or have I been misattributing that to you this whole time.

Yeah, Bailey is longer and taller. But Tre has good size for a SG and is more skilled.

Bailey might be a slightly more attractive prospect but not nearly worth trading up for IMO.

[pancakes3]

i don't think tre lasts til 6 is the problem.

[nate33]

Beal is owed roughly $111M, that would be a massive buyout. Phoenix can offer about $80M due to their salary cap situation, maybe we can offer more, I don’t know. Brad would not take $80M. $110M big price to move up 3 spots, even allowing for the $72M savings on Middleton and reminder of Kispert. Ishiba has been bad, but not sure he would take on Paul George contract.

If you allow for the $74M in savings on Middleton and Kispert, then we are paying $37M to move up from #6 to #3. I think that is probably the going rate for moving up high in the lottery.

My guess is the very most Beal would accept in a buyout is the NTMLE, assuming a team like the Clippers would give it to him for 2 years.

You have to factor in the opportunity cost of having dead (thus untradeable) money on the books for the next two seasons.

Further, you have to game out the rest of PHX's offseason to the best of your ability to assess the risk around them making the playoffs next year. While the chances of them jumping the Wizards in next year's lottery are unlikely today, the Wizards pick swap with PHX next year gives WAS a backstop against a specific type of lottery disaster.

If you're paying considerably to move from 6 to 3 -- whatever form that payment takes -- you need to be really convinced about who are you are taking at 3. It's not that it can't work, but further patience might be the more prudent course.

Ones' assessment of PG also matters here. If he's completely cooked, then maybe he's a trojan horse that helps enhance the PHX draft equity WAS hold. Or maybe he's an asset you can rehab and move to someone who strikes out in free agency.

The negotiation surrounding Beal's buyout would be interesting. The NBA has a "right to set-off" provision whereby when a player is waived while still under contract, his old team gets repaid whatever amount the player earns on his new contract if he joins another team. So, for example, if Beal ends up signing with the Lakers for the taxpayer MLE, the Wizards would get back that taxpayer MLE of $5.5M a year (for 2 years presumably).

Any new team signing him would have no motivation to pay Beal more than the vet minimum, because, either way, Beal is getting all the money he is owed, so they figure most of that money should come out of Leonsis' pocket and not theirs. So if we just waived him, we would only get back about $4M (2 times the vet-minimum salary of $2M).

The solution here is to negotiate with Beal. Tell him we're not going to waive him, nor play him at all and condemn him to being under contract and missing out on 2 seasons of his career, unless he works with us to find a new destination with a team willing to pay him a reasonable salary commensurate with his ability. I think there are teams out there who would pay him something close to MLE salary for 2 years. If they work that out, then we can shave roughly $30M off of Beal's salary in a buyout.

If we save $30M in Beal's buyout, then the end result is that we paid just $7M to move up from #6 to #3!

[DCZards]

The solution here is to negotiate with Beal. Tell him we're not going to waive him, nor play him at all and condemn him to being under contract and missing out on 2 seasons of his career, unless he works with us to find a new destination with a team willing to pay him a reasonable salary commensurate with his ability.

Despite what we might think of his play or contract, Beal is clearly one of the good guys in the NBA and players and agents around the league know that he doesn't deserve to be "condemned" like that. It would also put our youngins in the middle of a truly funky situation.

Is that really the kind of culture that we want the Zards to become known for? That's a bad idea that would set our rebuild back.

[nate33]

The solution here is to negotiate with Beal. Tell him we're not going to waive him, nor play him at all and condemn him to being under contract and missing out on 2 seasons of his career, unless he works with us to find a new destination with a team willing to pay him a reasonable salary commensurate with his ability.

Despite what we might think of his play or contract, Beal is clearly one of the good guys in the NBA and players and agents around the league know that he doesn't deserve to be "condemned" like that. It would also put our youngins in the middle of a truly funky situation.

Is that really the kind of culture that we want the Zards to become known for? That's a bad idea that would set our rebuild back.

You are missing the point. We don't have to make that threat overtly. It's just implied. It's the leverage we have to work with.

The ultimate goal here is merely fairness. If Beal wants to go play for the Lakers, it's not fair for the Lakers to only pay him the vet minimum of $2M a year (with us paying the remaining $53M a year of his salary) when Beal is clearly worth something more like MLE money on the open market. If he is worth $15M a year, then the Lakers should pay that and we would only have to pay the remaining $40M a year of Beal's salary.

Beal gets his money either way. This is just a measure to make sure the Wizards aren't subsidizing the Lakers.

[closg00]

i don't think tre lasts til 6 is the problem.

I think there’s a good chance that Tres will be there at 6 if you believe the mocks, Fears is now mocked to Utah as has Kon Knueppel.