Official Trade Thread Part XLVIII

[nate33]

Sub Sorber for Robinson and it’s got dynasty potential IMO.

I've proposed a Sorber trade on the trade board: the 2029 Portland pick (second best of MIL, POR, BOS) for Sorber. The logic for OKC is that it saves them $23M in luxtax costs. They are essentially pushing forward the benefit of the Sorber draft into the future when they will be better able to pay for it.

[payitforward]

Sure! Could even throw in one of our down-the-road R2 picks. I wish I thought they'd go for it -- or, I suppose, that we could pass on the idea to Will. Not that he needs our help. I'd be surprised if he hasn't suggested it....

[9 and 20]

Things aren't going great in Orlando. Paolo Banchero available? May make sense if we get a guard in the draft. Probably would have to ship out either Bilal or Kyshawn, and definitely something for the offseason, not the trade deadline.

[payitforward]

I wonder how long it will take before people realize that Paolo Banchero is NOT a particularly good NBA player.

[Frichuela]

Question for the CBA experts here:

Say that in the offseason, Dawkins agrees on a sign and trade with Denver where we get Peyton Watson and we give back Bilal. If Bilal has a salary of $9 million for 2026-27, how much can we offer Watson as a first year salary?

[tontoz]

Question for the CBA experts here:

Say that in the offseason, Dawkins agrees on a sign and trade with Denver where we get Peyton Watson and we give back Bilal. If Bilal has a salary of $9 million for 2026-27, how much can we offer Watson as a first year salary?

Pretty sure we can offer whatever we want because we are under the cap.

[DukeLecker]

I wonder how long it will take before people realize that Paolo Banchero is NOT a particularly good NBA player.

Shareef Abdur-Banchero

[Benjammin]

I wonder how long it will take before people realize that Paolo Banchero is NOT a particularly good NBA player.

Shareef Abdur-Banchero

I think Abdur-Rahim was better but I didn't do a deep dive on it.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[9 and 20]

Seems harsh on Banchero. Still young and carries a lot of the offensive load. It hasn't worked there and that has a lot to do with Banchero's limitations. But it's also on the guys around him. He's got talent for sure. Just need to harness it better and maybe put him in a better system.

[Frichuela]

Question for the CBA experts here:

Say that in the offseason, Dawkins agrees on a sign and trade with Denver where we get Peyton Watson and we give back Bilal. If Bilal has a salary of $9 million for 2026-27, how much can we offer Watson as a first year salary?

Pretty sure we can offer whatever we want because we are under the cap.

Thanks. Then, we are in a great position. Here is to our front office and their negotiating skills!!

[payitforward]

Seems harsh on Banchero. Still young and carries a lot of the offensive load. It hasn't worked there and that has a lot to do with Banchero's limitations. But it's also on the guys around him. He's got talent for sure. Just need to harness it better and maybe put him in a better system.

I'm not trying to rag on Banchero. &, for that matter, every single player in the NBA, right down to the very worst one, is incredibly talented at basketball. Unfortunately, Bsnchero is closer to the worst than the best! Way below average.

[nate33]

Question for the CBA experts here:

Say that in the offseason, Dawkins agrees on a sign and trade with Denver where we get Peyton Watson and we give back Bilal. If Bilal has a salary of $9 million for 2026-27, how much can we offer Watson as a first year salary?

We can pay Watson whatever we want.

That said, I don't think Denver would have a ton of interest in Bilal, nor would they have the leverage to get him. If we are prepared to offer a 4-year $120M deal for Watson, front-loaded, Denver simply can't match. I've run all the numbers. It's not happening. I would throw Denver a bone though, just to make the negotiation smoother and to give us the capacity to have 8% raises (or salary declines in this case) instead of 5%. I'd offer Denver two SRPs to work out a sign-and-trade for Watson, which would get them a big TPE as well. And it would help ward off other suitors.

I'd aim to lock Watson into a 4-year $120M deal with maximum salary declines. That would look like this:
Year 1 - $34,090,909
Year 2 - $31,363,636
Year 3 - $28,636,364
Year 4 - $25,909,091

Those first two years may be a bit pricey, but we have oodles of cap room and we will still be struggling to meet the cap floor. In Years 3 and 4, we will have resigned Sarr, Kyshawn and presumably Bub to new contracts so we will be well-served having Watson's cap hit decreasing.

I'd keep Bilal and try to extend him this summer to a 4-year $50M deal (declining salaries, of course)

[nate33]

It's really a shame that Champagnie has to toil in obscurity on the worst team in the league. If we had more visibility as a franchise, I'm convinced Champagnie could merit a huge return in a trade. He is honestly worth a late lotto pick in my opinion. The dude is highly productive, still pretty young, very durable, and is paid the vet minimum for 2.5 more years. An over-the-tax contender should really value a guy who come in and be a quality rotation player at that price.

Think about it. Denver paid a FRP to acquire Cameron Johnson. Wouldn't they much rather have a more productive Champagnie at about 20% of the cost?

[GoneShammGone]

It's really a shame that Champagnie has to toil in obscurity on the worst team in the league. If we had more visibility as a franchise, I'm convinced Champagnie could merit a huge return in a trade. He is honestly worth a late lotto pick in my opinion. The dude is highly productive, still pretty young, very durable, and is paid the vet minimum for 2.5 more years. An over-the-tax contender should really value a guy who come in and be a quality rotation player at that price.

Think about it. Denver paid a FRP to acquire Cameron Johnson. Wouldn't they much rather have a more productive Champagnie at about 20% of the cost?

On the flip side... let's extend him for cheap! I love having him on the team... he's such a tough competitor. But wait, when is he even eligible for an extension? He has really been free money for us up to this point, I'd love to still have his contribution when we are contending.

[Frichuela]

Question for the CBA experts here:

Say that in the offseason, Dawkins agrees on a sign and trade with Denver where we get Peyton Watson and we give back Bilal. If Bilal has a salary of $9 million for 2026-27, how much can we offer Watson as a first year salary?

We can pay Watson whatever we want.

That said, I don't think Denver would have a ton of interest in Bilal, nor would they have the leverage to get him. If we are prepared to offer a 4-year $120M deal for Watson, front-loaded, Denver simply can't match. I've run all the numbers. It's not happening. I would throw Denver a bone though, just to make the negotiation smoother and to give us the capacity to have 8% raises (or salary declines in this case) instead of 5%. I'd offer Denver two SRPs to work out a sign-and-trade for Watson, which would get them a big TPE as well. And it would help ward off other suitors.

I'd aim to lock Watson into a 4-year $120M deal with maximum salary declines. That would look like this:
Year 1 - $34,090,909
Year 2 - $31,363,636
Year 3 - $28,636,364
Year 4 - $25,909,091

Those first two years may be a bit pricey, but we have oodles of cap room and we will still be struggling to meet the cap floor. In Years 3 and 4, we will have resigned Sarr, Kyshawn and presumably Bub to new contracts so we will be well-served having Watson's cap hit decreasing.

I'd keep Bilal and try to extend him this summer to a 4-year $50M deal (declining salaries, of course)

In that case Nate, I’d be all for it. Let’s hit Denver with an offer for Watson in the summer!

[lastemp3ror]

I am assuming if we get Dybansta in the draft we are going to pursue Watson?

[gesa2]

Question for the CBA experts here:

Say that in the offseason, Dawkins agrees on a sign and trade with Denver where we get Peyton Watson and we give back Bilal. If Bilal has a salary of $9 million for 2026-27, how much can we offer Watson as a first year salary?

We can pay Watson whatever we want.

That said, I don't think Denver would have a ton of interest in Bilal, nor would they have the leverage to get him. If we are prepared to offer a 4-year $120M deal for Watson, front-loaded, Denver simply can't match. I've run all the numbers. It's not happening. I would throw Denver a bone though, just to make the negotiation smoother and to give us the capacity to have 8% raises (or salary declines in this case) instead of 5%. I'd offer Denver two SRPs to work out a sign-and-trade for Watson, which would get them a big TPE as well. And it would help ward off other suitors.

I'd aim to lock Watson into a 4-year $120M deal with maximum salary declines. That would look like this:
Year 1 - $34,090,909
Year 2 - $31,363,636
Year 3 - $28,636,364
Year 4 - $25,909,091

Those first two years may be a bit pricey, but we have oodles of cap room and we will still be struggling to meet the cap floor. In Years 3 and 4, we will have resigned Sarr, Kyshawn and presumably Bub to new contracts so we will be well-served having Watson's cap hit decreasing.

I'd keep Bilal and try to extend him this summer to a 4-year $50M deal (declining salaries, of course)

In that case Nate, I’d be all for it. Let’s hit Denver with an offer for Watson in the summer!

Man that would be amazing, assuming we don’t draft a 4. I still think it’s more likely that Denver finds a landing spot for one of Cam Johnson or Christian Braun so they can afford Watson though

[tontoz]

I am assuming if we get Dybansta in the draft we are going to pursue Watson?

No it's the opposite. If we get AJ we will probably be looking elsewhere since AJ and Peyton are primarily 3s.

If we draft Peterson or one of the pgs then pursuing Peyton is more likely.

[nate33]

We can pay Watson whatever we want.

That said, I don't think Denver would have a ton of interest in Bilal, nor would they have the leverage to get him. If we are prepared to offer a 4-year $120M deal for Watson, front-loaded, Denver simply can't match. I've run all the numbers. It's not happening. I would throw Denver a bone though, just to make the negotiation smoother and to give us the capacity to have 8% raises (or salary declines in this case) instead of 5%. I'd offer Denver two SRPs to work out a sign-and-trade for Watson, which would get them a big TPE as well. And it would help ward off other suitors.

I'd aim to lock Watson into a 4-year $120M deal with maximum salary declines. That would look like this:
Year 1 - $34,090,909
Year 2 - $31,363,636
Year 3 - $28,636,364
Year 4 - $25,909,091

Those first two years may be a bit pricey, but we have oodles of cap room and we will still be struggling to meet the cap floor. In Years 3 and 4, we will have resigned Sarr, Kyshawn and presumably Bub to new contracts so we will be well-served having Watson's cap hit decreasing.

I'd keep Bilal and try to extend him this summer to a 4-year $50M deal (declining salaries, of course)

In that case Nate, I’d be all for it. Let’s hit Denver with an offer for Watson in the summer!

Man that would be amazing, assuming we don’t draft a 4. I still think it’s more likely that Denver finds a landing spot for one of Cam Johnson or Christian Braun so they can afford Watson though

If Denver matches a 4-year $120M offer, and backloads it to the fullest extent possible; and if they move Cam Johnson; and if they dump every team option guy and replace them all with vet minimum contracts; they'd still be paying a $54M luxtax next year and $74M the year after. And that's for a team with 5 good players. Their bench would be Nnaji, Holmes, Strawther, their 2026 pick (#28 or so), and 6 more vet minimum guys.

Maybe they'll pay that. I dunno. But that's a big tax to pay for a team that would be in a pretty precarious position, with no margin for error if there are injuries.

I don't think they can move Christian Braun after a bad season. Why would any team bail them out of that contract when they can pay just 10-20% more and end up with Watson?

[gesa2]

The numbers say you’re right Nate, and Denver has basically never paid the tax. Watson is so good for them now I can’t believe they’d let him go. I’d feel so bad for their fans if that happens - to have the greatest player in his generation and be too cheap to keep the beat team around him.