More Wizards predictions for 2026-27

[dobrojim]

^ say things go optimistically well and we are in the 3-5 range in EC standings...would you trade AD then if he
was a major contributor to their success? Note- I'm not saying I expect this to happen. But Nate's 48 w upper limit
could have us around 4-5th place. Maybe I'll look back and say pie in the sky. IDK.

[Zonkerbl]

^ say things go optimistically well and we are in the 3-5 range in EC standings...would you trade AD then if he
was a major contributor to their success? Note- I'm not saying I expect this to happen. But Nate's 48 w upper limit
could have us around 4-5th place. Maybe I'll look back and say pie in the sky. IDK.

You have to be 100% focused on getting as much value out of AD as you can. Absolutely trade him for value. But at this point I don't think you want FRPs, you want a front court defensive rebounding specialist, at least, in return. They're not rebuilding anymore.

[nate33]

^ say things go optimistically well and we are in the 3-5 range in EC standings...would you trade AD then if he
was a major contributor to their success? Note- I'm not saying I expect this to happen. But Nate's 48 w upper limit
could have us around 4-5th place. Maybe I'll look back and say pie in the sky. IDK.

It's simple. Retaining AD on a max contract would mean that we must sacrifice either Sarr or both of Bilal and Kyshawn.

We would have to be a legit contender for me to want AD at a contract expensive enough that it would mean sacrificing those guys. And chances are, if we were actually contending, Sarr, Kyshawn and Bilal would have been instrumental in our success. So ultimately, it would be impossible to maintain a contending roster either way.

The only caveat to this would be if we could dump Trae's salary. If we could move Trae in the expansion draft and replace his playmaking with some combination of AJ, Kyshawn and Riley, then perhaps there would be a way forward with AD on a max or near-max contract.

[dobrojim]

You want someone 5-7 years younger who has a history of both availability and winning.
That would be worth AD's salary.

[nate33]

AD will be healthy and will request to be traded at the next deadline.

(1)I’m modifying mine to say, AD will be relatively healthy and will be traded before the deadline.

(2)Kyshawn takes a major jump.

(3)Bilal might improve his 3 point percentage a little, but doesn’t take a major jump.

(4)AJ scores at least 18 a game, on solid efficiency, while playing solid D and passing the ball well. But he doesn’t shoot well from 3.

(5)Tre Johnson improves offensively and looks like a heater, but doesn’t improve defensively.

(6)After trading AD, we miss the play in, and get 3 lotto balls and a solid Lotto pick.

I like this outcome!

[nate33]

I still think this was a 33 win team last year, with all the defensive talent they had, that management intentionally derailed by forcing certain key players to sit while mildly injured, so I don't think it's a huge leap to anticipate 44 wins. Like, 33 wins is still a bad team. This was a bad team last season. Just not a 17 win team, you know what I'm saying? Plug the hole at defensive rebounding and this is a 44 win team. Will adding Trae increase or decrease that total? My confidence in this team is based entirely on its defense. If Trae messes that up... That's where I'm really uncertain.

The question is, how much do the anti-tanking rules affect this calculation?

Yeah, maybe we could have won 33 games last year if we tried, but that's only because we would have beaten a lot of tanking teams who weren't trying. If every other team was trying all out to win every game last year, could we have possibly won 33? I doubt it. The team was legitimately trying for most of the first half of the season, and at our peak, we were 10-25 and on pace for about 23 wins. (That was the day before the McCollum trade). Let's optimistically assume we could have managed 25 wins if we finished strong. Again, I'm talking about a hypothetical season with nobody intentionally tanking.

So our baseline for this season isn't really 33 wins plus AD, AJ, Trae and improvement from the youth. It's probably more like 25 wins plus AD, AJ, Trae and improvement from the youth. That's why I think it's a bit optimistic to assume an above .500 season this year. Maybe if AD plays 74 games or so we can get to 44 wins, but if he plays 51 games, I expect our win total to be in the 30's.

[payitforward]

It's frankly a little insane to demand a trade before you've proven you're healthy. All he's doing is planting the seed that his frustration with his injuries has turned him into a malcontent/non team player. If it were me I'd wait until I'd established I was healthy first before going to the press to complain.

If he's healthy he won't have to ask for a trade at the next deadline because teams will be knocking down the zards' door to get him. Everyone knows AD is not in their long term plans.

The headline I read says AD “could” demand a trade. He hasn’t asked for a trade to this point so let’s not act like he has.

Agree! Moreover, he's shown a bunch of good stuff -- relating to his teammates, practicing with them, joining everyone in his SL attendance.

In truth, I haven't seen a single example of "bad behavior" from him -- now... he may have been upset when he first learned that he'd been traded to a perennial league-bottom team, but he gives every indication of having figured out that this organization is now altogether different.

Why don't we give this guy a chance, ok? After all, he is one of the greatest players in the game!@

[nate33]

Why don't we give this guy a chance, ok? After all, he is one of the greatest players in the game!@

When you think about it, it is totally within the realm of possibility that AD's season next year could be the greatest season from a Wizard player since Wes Unseld's MVP run.

[The Consiglieri]

^ say things go optimistically well and we are in the 3-5 range in EC standings...would you trade AD then if he
was a major contributor to their success? Note- I'm not saying I expect this to happen. But Nate's 48 w upper limit
could have us around 4-5th place. Maybe I'll look back and say pie in the sky. IDK.

You have to be 100% focused on getting as much value out of AD as you can. Absolutely trade him for value. But at this point I don't think you want FRPs, you want a front court defensive rebounding specialist, at least, in return. They're not rebuilding anymore.

I definitely agree w/the former, I don't have a specific intent on whats being acquired, I'm not worried about that in the same way, but Davis is clearly more valuable to others than us as he's a classic finishing piece, when healthy of limited long term value while our likely potential period of contention starts in '28 or '29 when he's long gone, as such, I'd flip him w/o question in such a scenario.

[payitforward]

...our baseline for this season ... It's probably more like 25 wins plus AD, AJ, Trae and improvement from the youth....

...minus CJ who helped in the better first part of last season.

...That's why I think it's a bit optimistic to assume an above .500 season this year. Maybe if AD plays 74 games or so we can get to 44 wins, but if he plays 51 games, I expect our win total to be in the 30's.

A couple of years ago Detroit jumped 30 wins from one season to the next. TBH, that strikes me as utterly amazing -- but it indicates that it *can* happen.

Top 8 in minutes, '23-24 -- 14-68
Jaden Ivey
Cade Cunningham
Jalen Duren
Ausar Thompson
Isaiah Stewart
Marcus Sasser
James Wiseman
Killian Hayes

Top 8 in minutes '24-25 -- 44-38
Cade Cunningham
Tobias Harris
Malik Beasley
Tim Hardaway
Jalen Duren
Isaiah Stewart
Ausar Thompson
Ron Holland

In their case, 3 terrible players (Ivey, Wiseman & Hayes) & 1 mediocre player (Sasser) are gone from the top-minutes list when we move from '23-4 to '24-25 -- replaced by 3 good veterans (Harris, Beasley & Hardaway) & 1 pretty productive rookie (Holland). Moreover, the top 8 in '24-25 also logged more minutes overall than the previous year.

Can we approximate this kind of jump? Based on the additions of veterans AD, Trae & Ayton plus rookie Dybantsa, and significant jumps from our other young guys?

Doesn't seem altogether impossible, does it?...

[doclinkin]

^ say things go optimistically well and we are in the 3-5 range in EC standings...would you trade AD then if he
was a major contributor to their success? Note- I'm not saying I expect this to happen. But Nate's 48 w upper limit
could have us around 4-5th place. Maybe I'll look back and say pie in the sky. IDK.

It's simple. Retaining AD on a max contract would mean that we must sacrifice either Sarr or both of Bilal and Kyshawn.

We would have to be a legit contender for me to want AD at a contract expensive enough that it would mean sacrificing those guys. And chances are, if we were actually contending, Sarr, Kyshawn and Bilal would have been instrumental in our success. So ultimately, it would be impossible to maintain a contending roster either way.

The only caveat to this would be if we could dump Trae's salary. If we could move Trae in the expansion draft and replace his playmaking with some combination of AJ, Kyshawn and Riley, then perhaps there would be a way forward with AD on a max or near-max contract.

If AD carried this team to a 4th place finish, it’s because he’s both unusually healthy and efficient at both ends. If so the offers for him would be tough to turn down.

If we are 4-5th place mid season I expect the team would keep him through the playoffs then listen to offers. But if we made a deep run in the postseason then you’re into Ted territory. He’s said he will pay tax and penalties for a contender.

[anselmheifer76]

^ say things go optimistically well and we are in the 3-5 range in EC standings...would you trade AD then if he
was a major contributor to their success? Note- I'm not saying I expect this to happen. But Nate's 48 w upper limit
could have us around 4-5th place. Maybe I'll look back and say pie in the sky. IDK.

You have to be 100% focused on getting as much value out of AD as you can. Absolutely trade him for value. But at this point I don't think you want FRPs, you want a front court defensive rebounding specialist, at least, in return. They're not rebuilding anymore.

We certainly do need as much value as we can, but I’m not necessarily stuck on how we get it. And I’m not stuck on making the playoffs the next two years either.

With the flattened lotto odds, a first round pick has more value than ever from a team that may not be in the playoffs. I’d take future first round picks from Golden State, for instance.

Of course, I’d also be happy to have a young, physical, rebounding power forward. But unless he looks like a 5 year fit on a winning team, I’d almost rather have 1sts. I don’t want to see our win totals in the 20’s ever again. But I’m ok if players are developing and look good, and the team has some flaws, and we continue to accumulate talent. Because, initially our current young talent is going to mature. And if they are good, we are going to need the firsts to keep a talent pipeline to replace guys like OKC. And that also would leave us assets to consolidate a guy or two and some picks for a younger superstar to go with AJ, Sarr, and George.

[Zonkerbl]

this team has not had a 50 win season since 1978. 1978!

I mean, I think last season's team had 33 win talent. They had a really sucky beginning of the season, 2-16 through November. They went 6-8 in December. Then they started sitting players, trading players who were performing too well. Right, so when I say the team had 33 win talent, I mean a team with CJ still on it. We replaced him with Trae, so we're at least that good now. After deliberately trading their most talented player away for one who we knew was going to be on the bench the rest of the season, the team went 7-39. If they had maintained their December pace through the rest of the season (yeah, yeah, a big if) they could have gotten 20 more wins, so like 28 wins. Yeah, 25 wins, fine. Woulda coulda shoulda, had they played better in the first two months they could have broken 30, theoretically. Had they not gotten screwed by the lottery the previous season I think they would have played with fire and enthusiasm and surprised a lot of us.

I think with this team playing with fire and enthusiasm, and all of the young players a year older, and if AD is healthy, they could surprise us. But for the acquisition of TY I'd be all in for a surprisingly good season next year. A team with a strong defense as its core identity is always going to perform better than a team with a strong offense and crap defense. The Arenas Wizards never, ever made their opponents feel like they just had no chance. Keep playing hard and you could always come back against them. A team with a good defense, if they jump out to an early lead on you, you have a long, emotionally exhausting fight ahead of you. Plus good defense leads to transition buckets so you don't even have to be all that good offensively if you have good defense. A team with good defense is one that can put its foot on the neck of an opponent and press. You can't do that without defense.

It looked like the front office was trying to put together a team where every single starter was a plus defender, with mixed success but still, it was clear that is what they were trying to do. Until they went all in on TY. Now I'm not so sure what their strategy is. We'll see I guess.

[payitforward]

Why don't we give this guy a chance, ok? After all, he is one of the greatest players in the game!@

When you think about it, it is totally within the realm of possibility that AD's season next year could be the greatest season from a Wizard player since Wes Unseld's MVP run.

May it be so!!

[penbeast0]

Why don't we give this guy a chance, ok? After all, he is one of the greatest players in the game!@

When you think about it, it is totally within the realm of possibility that AD's season next year could be the greatest season from a Wizard player since Wes Unseld's MVP run.

Is that more a commentary on Davis's greatness or the franchise's record of futility? I'd be happy if he's the equivalent of prime Pervis Ellison.

[dobrojim]

It's frankly a little insane to demand a trade before you've proven you're healthy. All he's doing is planting the seed that his frustration with his injuries has turned him into a malcontent/non team player. If it were me I'd wait until I'd established I was healthy first before going to the press to complain.

If he's healthy he won't have to ask for a trade at the next deadline because teams will be knocking down the zards' door to get him. Everyone knows AD is not in their long term plans.

The headline I read says AD “could” demand a trade. He hasn’t asked for a trade to this point so let’s not act like he has.

Agree! Moreover, he's shown a bunch of good stuff -- relating to his teammates, practicing with them, joining everyone in his SL attendance.

In truth, I haven't seen a single example of "bad behavior" from him -- now... he may have been upset when he first learned that he'd been traded to a perennial league-bottom team, but he gives every indication of having figured out that this organization is now altogether different.

Why don't we give this guy a chance, ok? After all, he is one of the greatest players in the game!@

(I believe) The last time we had a 1st team All-NBA player was Elvin. MJ and Moses were very good, but past prime.
Wall and Gilbert were very good for a limited number of years.

So the AD, the healthy AD of the recent past, would be our best player in a long time.

[dobrojim]

^ say things go optimistically well and we are in the 3-5 range in EC standings...would you trade AD then if he
was a major contributor to their success? Note- I'm not saying I expect this to happen. But Nate's 48 w upper limit
could have us around 4-5th place. Maybe I'll look back and say pie in the sky. IDK.

It's simple. Retaining AD on a max contract would mean that we must sacrifice either Sarr or both of Bilal and Kyshawn.

We would have to be a legit contender for me to want AD at a contract expensive enough that it would mean sacrificing those guys. And chances are, if we were actually contending, Sarr, Kyshawn and Bilal would have been instrumental in our success. So ultimately, it would be impossible to maintain a contending roster either way.

The only caveat to this would be if we could dump Trae's salary. If we could move Trae in the expansion draft and replace his playmaking with some combination of AJ, Kyshawn and Riley, then perhaps there would be a way forward with AD on a max or near-max contract.

If AD carried this team to a 4th place finish, it’s because he’s both unusually healthy and efficient at both ends. If so the offers for him would be tough to turn down.

If we are 4-5th place mid season I expect the team would keep him through the playoffs then listen to offers. But if we made a deep run in the postseason then you’re into Ted territory. He’s said he will pay tax and penalties for a contender.

My main reason to even raise the question is how uncertain the future can sometimes be.
How good of a chance do you think you have to make a run? Sometimes, and for some teams,
that level of success is ephmeral. You think you can do it again but ish happens and you just don't.
That said, I agree that with y'all to cash in the AD chip and hope you get a better long term chance.

[doclinkin]

If AD carried this team to a 4th place finish, it’s because he’s both unusually healthy and efficient at both ends. If so the offers for him would be tough to turn down.

If we are 4-5th place mid season I expect the team would keep him through the playoffs then listen to offers. But if we made a deep run in the postseason then you’re into Ted territory. He’s said he will pay tax and penalties for a contender.

My main reason to even raise the question is how uncertain the future can sometimes be.
How good of a chance do you think you have to make a run? Sometimes, and for some teams,
that level of success is ephmeral. You think you can do it again but ish happens and you just don't.
That said, I agree that with y'all to cash in the AD chip and hope you get a better long term chance.

I dunno. If we were making a deep run and truly contending I think the smart move would be to do what Ted suggests, pay the penalties to keep the team together in the short run. Ride AD as far as he can carry you, if it helps you contend for a chip. If he’s healthy.

We have draft picks to land another bruiser, or an upgraded understudy for Young. We aren’t desperate to swap out AD at all costs. Nor are we anxious to overpay him.

But if he proves a perfect fit and helps us win, I’m not worried that we will be forced to jettison good players just to keep AD around. Recall, ok it was pre apron era but, Ted paid the lux tax for a losing team. I think filling a new building, selling out suites, stealing viewership and sponsor dollars from other leagues and sports. He’d eat a short term hit just to legitimately put the team in the map. You got to figure he’s been losing money over these past tank years. It’s worth billions to have a winner in the building.

Anyway. Mostly I trust this FO group to make a savvy choice when it comes down to it. And If AD wants to price himself off the team, fair enough, I trust them to make a good deal to exchange him.

[gesa2]

The last time AD was first team all NBA was 2019-2020. Since then he’s had one season where he was second team all NBA. I’m not expecting him to play better than anyone since 1978 this year, sorry. He’s behind only Jordan and just ahead of Pierce and Westbrook as the player with the best career that we’ve had on the team since ‘78

[doclinkin]

The last time AD was first team all NBA was 2019-2020. Since then he’s had one season where he was second team all NBA. I’m not expecting him to play better than anyone since 1978 this year, sorry. He’s behind only Jordan and just ahead of Pierce and Westbrook as the player with the best career that we’ve had on the team since ‘78

If he plays better for us than Westbrook we will have a hellova fun year.