OT: Shaq to Phoenix more than a rumor

[LyricalRico]

^ Nate, I'm fully expecting the Heat to make the playoffs if they were to add both Marion and Bibby so that pick would only be a mid first rounder in my scenario. They don't have to take on SAR but since they don't have any post scorers without Shaq, I thought he could help them there.

[Donkey McDonkerton]

Here's a novel thought:

With Shaq gone, Miami has nobody left to man the paint. Might they need a physical rebounder and shot blocker with a penchant for poetry?

[Dat2U]

I agree with pretty much everyone on this. I can't believe Phoenix would even consider such a move. Shaq is a bad fit on so many levels. He can't run, he can't defend (especially the pick and roll) & he can't even stay healthy.

He'll clog up the middle and take away much of Amare's room to operate in the post and turn Phoenix into a halfcourt team.

If this trade goes down, Steve Kerr will immediately vault into the Isiah Thomas, Chris Wallace & Kevin McHale sphere of idiocy.

It's a sweet deal for Miami IMO. They know can make a transition into a running team. I like Marion at the PF spot with Dorrell Wright at SF for them. They should look to move both Ricky D (although he becomes a better fit for them now, but I just hate his attitude) and Haslem and find a big & a shooter or 2.

Banks will also be nice for them. At this stage he could probably even start ahead of JWill who has just been awful lately. They would be one or two players away from making serious noise in the East again.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Miami even make a late run for the 8th seed with this trade.

For Phoenix, I think it ends all championship hopes and potentially sets back the franchise for the next few years.

[nate33]

^ Nate, I'm fully expecting the Heat to make the playoffs if they were to add both Marion and Bibby so that pick would only be a mid first rounder in my scenario. They don't have to take on SAR but since they don't have any post scorers without Shaq, I thought he could help them there.

Even if they add Marion and Bibby, they're not a lock for the playoffs. They'd still have absolutely nothing in the paint and they're currently 10 games back with 36 games to go. If we assume New Jersey maintains their current win percentage, they'll finish with 34 wins. Miami would have to 24-11 in their remaining games, that's a .685 winning percentage or an equivalent of a 56-win season. Miami isn't THAT good after the trade. (And I'm also assuming that no one among Chicago, Milwaukee or Indiana makes a 2nd half run.)

No. Miami's best choice is to tank the season and try to position themselves for next year. They should trade their expiring contracts for better talents with contracts lasting one or two years longer. They should not trade away their pick because it will be a lotto pick.

[tsvqt]

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Kaman would certainly be a better fit. LA wouldn't trade him for Marion though. They certainly wouldn't include Maggette and Cassell's expiring while taking on Skinner and Banks. That's awful for LA.

Well, with the way this trade season is going, who knows how many other Memphis' are out there!

How about we throw another one on top of the Miami trade.
Miami goes out and acquires JASON KIDD to run with Wade & Marion.
Miami trades it's 2008 #1, JASON WILLIAMS and MARK BLOUNT, ALONZO MOURNING
for
JASON KIDD and NENAD KRSTIC

[Dat2U]

Yeah, I don't think Bibby is the answer for them. SAR is just a deep reserve at this point and isn't worth the price tag.

I think they can get by with Banks at PG. They do need a C however. Tanking would be best for them but I think a Wade / Marion combo puts them above some of the other lottery teams in the East.

I think they'd have a good shot of at least finishing .500 from here on out if they made no other moves.

[LyricalRico]

It's a sweet deal for Miami IMO. They know can make a transition into a running team. I like Marion at the PF spot with Dorrell Wright at SF for them. They should look to move both Ricky D (although he becomes a better fit for them now, but I just hate his attitude) and Haslem and find a big & a shooter or 2.

Haslem+Davis+JWill for Wally+Petro? Or Ben Wallace and Nocioni?

[Induveca]

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Shaq can't guard the pick and roll at all anymore. And he is slow to help on the weakside defense. A team like San Antonio or LA will play Duncan/Gasol at center and position him in the high post. They'll draw Shaq out to the top of the key where he is hopelessly outmatched.

Offensively, Shaq can still score in the post, but not as effectively as he used to. The problem is that with Shaq's lardass in the post, he'll clog up the lane, preventing Steve Nash from penetrating and making those beautiful passes to a hard-cutting Stoudemire or Marion.

Another problem is that Phoenix doesn't really have the outside shooting that they used to be known for. Nash is as good as it gets from three, but Hill, Stoudemire and Diaw lack 3-point range, and Barbosa and Bell are just mediocre, shooting in the 36-37% range. To play Phoenix, all you have to do is guard Nash tight and pack everyone else into the paint.

If Wade could dominate in the paint with Shaq around, I highly doubt Nash/Stoudemire will have much of a problem.

You're acting as if changing their style of play will hurt them. They tried it for 4 years, it won them nothing. They are taking a risk, but it's one many will think could pay off.

All we can do is wait and see. This gives them a much better shot at beating San Antonio/Lakers if Shaq is motivated. From all signs it seems he is, he has a history of backing up his promises.

[nate33]

I just skimmed the Miami board. They like Marion but it seems that they're happiest about the potential cap relief if he opts out. They're eyeing Brand as Wade's long-term running mate.

I tell you what, a lot of teams are looking at Brand. Philly wants him too. Watch for the Clippers to trade him. They might be thinking that they're going to lose him for nothing if they don't trade him now.

[miller31time]

I just skimmed the Miami board. They like Marion but it seems that they're happiest about the potential cap relief if he opts out. They're eyeing Brand as Wade's long-term running mate.

I tell you what, a lot of teams are looking at Brand. Philly wants him too. Watch for the Clippers to trade him. They might be thinking that they're going to lose him for nothing if they don't trade him now.

Jamison for Brand?

Nah, that's the equivalent of losing him for nothing, considering they probably wouldn't be interesting in resigning Antawn.

[tsvqt]

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Jamison for Brand?

Nah, that's the equivalent of losing him for nothing, considering they probably wouldn't be interesting in resigning Antawn.

I see people are still high on trading JAMISON around here. I remember two years ago people were saying "trade Jamison, his value will never be higher than it is now!" I guess his value is still high and rising.
Never mind what the guy is doing for us now, let's ship him outta here and hope for the best with who we get in return. I'm in no way knocking BRAND. I'd LOVE to have him as well. It's just funny how JAMISON is still the guy who's trade bait.

[nate33]

I'm starting to think that Jamison for Marion makes sense from Miami's perspective.

Marion has an ETO but he would be a fool to exercise it this year when nobody is going to pay him $17M as a free agent. Miami isn't going to have a shot at Brand.

But if Miami trades Marion for Jamison, they free up $16M in cap room this summer - enough to throw a max salary Brand's way. Brand and Wade are perfect complements to one another. Surround them with defenders who can shoot, and they've got themselves a title contender.

For the Wizards, I just love the thought of Haywood, Marion and Butler in the frontcourt with Blatche backing them up. That's a sick defensive front line with plenty of offensive firepower to complement Arenas.

[tsvqt]

I'm starting to think that Jamison for Marion makes sense from Miami's perspective.

Marion has an ETO but he would be a fool to exercise it this year when nobody is going to pay him $17M as a free agent. Miami isn't going to have a shot at Brand.

But if Miami trades Marion for Jamison, they free up $16M in cap room this summer - enough to throw a max salary Brand's way. Brand and Wade are perfect complements to one another. Surround them with defenders who can shoot, and they've got themselves a title contender.

For the Wizards, I just love the thought of Haywood, Marion and Butler in the frontcourt with Blatche backing them up. That's a sick defensive front line with plenty of offensive firepower to complement Arenas.

How would we pay MARION and ARENAS??? I wouldn't do it if I were either team.

[LyricalRico]

I just skimmed the Miami board. They like Marion but it seems that they're happiest about the potential cap relief if he opts out. They're eyeing Brand as Wade's long-term running mate.

Dan Patrick said the same thing today and I thought he was crazy.

I just don't see Marion doing that. The only team that can pay him anywhere near what he would make next year under his current deal would be Memphis and they aren't going to sign him. The only other teams with cap space are Atlanta and Philly and they aren't going to be interested either (although Iggy and Marion filling the lanes while Miller runs the break would be exciting).

Any prior opt out talk from Marion was probably a ploy to prompt a trade. Now that he's gotten his wish, he ain't walking away from $17M just to do Pat Riley a favor. I could see him opting out and resigning a longterm deal for less (like 3 years, $36M) to get more security and also lessen the luxury tax hit if Miami were to use the MLE but that's it.

If Brand's coming to Miami it'll be in 2009 as a UFA.

[nate33]

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How would we pay MARION and ARENAS??? I wouldn't do it if I were either team.

It would likely mean a luxtax payment next year. But after that, Marion's contract would be up and it's likely that we could sign him for much less - perhaps around $12M a year. That would put us right around the luxtax threshold in the following year, depending on Arenas' salary. But we'd also have the option of trying to trade away Etan's or Daniels' salary to mitigate the problem.

Marion is a great defender, an excellent rebounder, and a solid offensive player. He is one of the most complete two-way players in the game. Butler and Marion would be absolutely deadly in the passing lanes. We'd run teams to death in the open court. And in the half court, we'd still be pretty solid with Arenas and Butler.

That team has potential to be the best defensive team in the league. Marion was arguably the best defensive player in game last year (going by an 82games.com study). Haywood is one of the best defensive centers in the league. Stevenson is a very good defensive guard. Butler is above-average on defense. We'd look like the 2001 Sixers only with better offense.

[Ruzious]

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How would we pay MARION and ARENAS??? I wouldn't do it if I were either team.

Yeah, Abe Pollin would not do that. If anything, it would have to be Arenas for Marion, and there's no w... hmmm, no way.... um... I guess Butler could play some 2, and we could draft Collison...

[tsvqt]

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Yeah, Abe Pollin would not do that. If anything, it would have to be Arenas for Marion, and there's no w... hmmm, no way.... um... I guess Butler could play some 2, and we could draft Collison...

[nate33]

Abe has said he'd pay the luxtax to make us a contender. I think this trade does exactly that (assuming everyone is healthy).

[doclinkin]

Except that it's Abe.

Abe will pay Jamison. Jamison will retire a Wizard.

It's that 'character and loyalty' hang-up that Abe has. Marion's not a bad guy, apart from being a bit whiny about not being given all the respect and credit he probably desrves, but in the character and leadership and public-face-of-the-team-in-the-community department, Jamison has him beat hands down. Sorry folks, you got to know your owner if you're gonna play this game.

[Ruzious]

Agree with Doc. Jamison is the teacher's pet, and he wouldn't trade him to go over the lux tax. I could see him make an exception for someone with a golden rep and golden game like KG or Duncan - but not for Marion. Unfortunately, KG and Duncan aren't available.