Official Countdown Grunfeld Era-2nd SuperStar?

[jivelikenice]

You can't blame EG for letting Eddie Jordan dictate who was on his staff. EJ was the All-Star coach and we were in 2nd place in the east before Arenas went down with his injury. Any coach in that position would be upset about having an assistant coach being forced on him. EJ had a lot of flaws, but he did a great job with what he had to work with over here and in hindsight I appreciate his contribution more than I did before. I can't give you that one....

The main problems with EG is pretty simple.
1. He overvalues the talent he puts on the roster- Saying the 5th pick wouldn’t be able to contribute to a playoff team? Selling the Dejuan Blair pick because there’s no space for him on this talent rich roster? Come on…..
2. He goes for too many projects- Take a shot here or there, but you can’t always draft the guy with great measurable.
3. He doesn’t value basketball IQ- No need to comment further here….

[Zonkerbl]

I'm blaming EG for not firing EJ and hiring Thibs in his place.

[jivelikenice]

I'm blaming EG for not firing EJ and hiring Thibs in his place.

Your Monday Morning qb'ing. You could not fire EJ coming off an all-star coaching appearance for Thibs. Nobody hired Thibs as a HC at that point; not until he showcased his defense for the C's in their title run as an assistant

[Zonkerbl]

You're making excuses for EG's spinelessness. EJ was obviously insubordinate in that instance and should have been fired on the spot.

[dobrojim]

Zonk, I think you're making a lot of assumptions on very little actual knowledge.
If what you think you know is actually true, your case would be much stronger.
I personally don't know how any of us can really know at this time that your
suppositions are accurate. Might be, might not be.

[closg00]

Here is a bit of what Mike Lee wrote at the time.

Thibodeau arrived in Washington with a ton of experience and hype after serving as an assistant with the New York Knicks -- where he worked with Wizards president Ernie Grunfeld -- and Houston Rockets, garnering a reputation as a defensive guru. But his time the Wizards was short-lived, as he experienced a "change of heart" about four days after signing. The reason Thibodeau left was never clear, but league sources said he felt uneasy that he was interviewed and hired by Grunfeld, rather than Jordan. Thibodeau also had received a two-year deal, while the rest of Jordan's staff had one season left, creating the perception that he would eventually be Jordan's replacement. When asked about the move on Monday -- a few hours before leading the Bulls to their third win over the rebuilding Wizards -- Thibodeau said, "I just didn't feel comfortable. I probably made a decision quicker than I should've. They were great. It's a great organization and I wish them nothing but the best."

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/wizard ... fit-i.html

Some board-members may recall that Jordan basically froze Thibs-out upon his arrival. The entire situation was bungled by Grunfeld ..although he was wise to bring-in Thibs.

[montestewart]

It could be an instance of Pollin overruling EG. Hard to know, but without that knowledge, I'm left to wonder whether EG has a winning vision for team building and if so, whether he tries hard enough to sell that vision to the owner. Stlll, as we've seen with the Redskins and the Orioles (to name two obvious examples), meddling owners can kill a team, and sometimes there's not much you can do about it.

[jivelikenice]

I don't think anyone can argue that EG bringing in Thibs was a smart move, but it was handled poorly and based on contracts, etc...it's understandable that EJ had a legit beef with this.

[closg00]

It could be an instance of Pollin overruling EG. Hard to know, but without that knowledge, I'm left to wonder whether EG has a winning vision for team building and if so, whether he tries hard enough to sell that vision to the owner. Stlll, as we've seen with the Redskins and the Orioles (to name two obvious examples), meddling owners can kill a team, and sometimes there's not much you can do about it.

What does Abe Pollin have to do with Thibs getting the hell out of Dodge 4 days after arriving? Absolutley nothing that's what.

[closg00]

I don't think anyone can argue that EG bringing in Thibs was a smart move, but it was handled poorly and based on contracts, etc...it's understandable that EJ had a legit beef with this.

Who is in-control here, EJ or Ernie? We know who-won.

Mark Cuban mocked Ernie openly when he said he would have done the DeShawn trade w/o the throwing-in of our defensive center. It's true, Ernie is very weak.

[Rafael122]

Yeah but who cares about Deshawn Stevenson.

[hands11]

It could be an instance of Pollin overruling EG. Hard to know, but without that knowledge, I'm left to wonder whether EG has a winning vision for team building and if so, whether he tries hard enough to sell that vision to the owner. Stlll, as we've seen with the Redskins and the Orioles (to name two obvious examples), meddling owners can kill a team, and sometimes there's not much you can do about it.

Why yes. Those with the Gold rule.

They sign the checks. EFJ was Abe's guy so he backed up his guy.

I will forever judge EG round one with questions. He brought in the talent but was it him who wanted to extend Gil and AJ to those contracts or was that Abe. Was it him who wanted to give up that #5 pick or was that Abe. Knowing Abe relationships with Gil and AJ I think it is reasonable to conclude he was a strong influence. And know Abe wanted to win before he passes away paints the #5 decision.

EG build a team that was better then we had in a long time and they made it to the playoffs. Poor coaching I feel lead to them not advancing and players staying injured. Gil, AJ and CB were road hard and put up wet. They were tops in the league in minutes per game year after year. And It was the extending of those contracts instead on transitioning to stage 2 rebuild that got the franchise in trouble. This is what ran the franchise into a brick wall.

But once Abe was out of the picture, EG went to work cleaning it up and rebuilding. And the tear down started with Ted in mind before he even arrived. Two year later, we are still pretty damn good to keep building a winner.

Only EG knows what really happened but we have enough vision from the outside to draw reasonable guesses.

[hands11]

It could be an instance of Pollin overruling EG. Hard to know, but without that knowledge, I'm left to wonder whether EG has a winning vision for team building and if so, whether he tries hard enough to sell that vision to the owner. Stlll, as we've seen with the Redskins and the Orioles (to name two obvious examples), meddling owners can kill a team, and sometimes there's not much you can do about it.

What does Abe Pollin have to do with Thibs getting the hell out of Dodge 4 days after arriving? Absolutley nothing that's what.

Everything that is what.

Abe - EFJ - EG = Totally dysfunctional.

That is the wrong order for a front office. Coaches are under GMs and GMs under owners. EG tried. EFJ cried. EFJ won. We lost.

I completely blame Abe for that.

[jivelikenice]

I don't think anyone can argue that EG bringing in Thibs was a smart move, but it was handled poorly and based on contracts, etc...it's understandable that EJ had a legit beef with this.

Who is in-control here, EJ or Ernie? We know who-won.

Mark Cuban mocked Ernie openly when he said he would have done the DeShawn trade w/o the throwing-in of our defensive center. It's true, Ernie is very weak.

My inital point was it was was a good idea but poorly executed by EG. My defense of EG on this point was I do not think he should have picked Thibs over EJ at that point. That was the initial discussion. In no way could you have fired EJ at that point and named Thibs the head coach.

[closg00]

Agreed, good idea that Ernie poorly executed

[Severn Hoos]

Having worked in politics/national security for a number of years, I learned that sometimes good decisions work out badly and sometimes bad decisions work out well. You can certainly judge decisions strictly on how things worked out - that happens plenty of times - but to me that is pretty weak analysis. Most people on this board are comfortable taking chances on draft picks - in fact virtually all draft picks have significant risks. When picking in the high lottery we all understand that there is a chance the guy will be great, a chance the guy will bust and a chance the guy will just be average. That's why the discussion of high ceiling/low floor; low ceiling/high floor etc. is so important.

When you look at the HUGE Oden vs. Durant decision that Portland had and what people thought at the time -- Oden was seen by many as having more upside and less risk than Durant. Now obviously it didn't turn out that way so Portland's decision by definition was "wrong" but it wasn't a "bad" decision.

Very good post, thinker, and I agree with a lot of it (though I'm OK if EG goes away this summer). What I really appreciated was the intro above. It hearkens back to a discussion we had here a few weeks back with Nivek & others around judging/rewarding outcome vs. process. If you stumble into a positive outcome without any repeatable process behind it, you are likely to have less success going forward. Whereas if you have a solid process but the outcome of a specific event is not what you had hoped, you have a good chance that the next outcome will be better.

I'm not entirely convinced that EG had the right process in each of his decisions, but neither do I think he had the 100% wrong process. For example, what if he had taken Curry in '09? Lots of posters here would say he was a genius. Now, suppose that Curry's injuries turn out to be career threatening (not hard to imagine, if he'd been on the Wiz). That outcome would be terrible - arguably worse than the outcome we got, since his salary would still be on the books. But no one would say that he did the "wrong" thing, even though the results were disastrous.

So yeah, open mind and all that. I won't go out and burn any couches if EG is retained, mainly for the same reasons you mentioned. If I was making the call, I'd bring in some new blood (GM & Coach, IN THAT ORDER), but then again it's not my call.

[Zonkerbl]

Don't put words in my mouth guys. I'm not making assumptions -- I'm coming to conclusions via inference based on the facts before me.

Fact: EG is the one who was hired to know what is the correct basketball decision.
Fact: It is his job to use his communication skills to influence his boss.
Fact: If the organization makes a bad decision because EG failed to convince Abe about something, that is EG's fault.

Full stop. Consider the trade of the #5 pick. Either Abe didn't trust EG's judgement and ignored his advice, which is EG's fault, or EG didn't have the cojones to step and say something, which is EG's fault. Or EG genuinely thought trading the #5 pick was a good idea, but that would contradict the other facts that I have in front of me, which are that generally EG has made good trades and is a good evaluator of talent.

On the Thibs thing, to me it looks like EG thought Thibs was a better coach than EJ -- that's why he gave Thibs a two year contract, and EJ only one. Is there any other way to interpret that? The correct approach then, if you truly think that Thibs is better, is to fire EJ and hire Thibs. He was too cowardly to do this and tried this crazy two year contract thing, going over EJ's head. That's just not the right way to do it. Fire EJ and hire Thibs, if you think Thibs is what your organization needs.

You simply cannot blame Abe Pollin for EG's mistakes. It is EG's responsibility as a leader to talk Abe out of bad ideas. It happens all the time -- people higher up than you in the hierarchy come up with a truly bad idea. If you are a good leader, you have the communication skills to broach the subject with your superior properly, make your case, and talk him/her out of it. If you are too scared to do this, or fail at it, you are not good at your job.

[thinker07]

Very good post, thinker, and I agree with a lot of it (though I'm OK if EG goes away this summer). What I really appreciated was the intro above. It hearkens back to a discussion we had here a few weeks back with Nivek & others around judging/rewarding outcome vs. process. If you stumble into a positive outcome without any repeatable process behind it, you are likely to have less success going forward. Whereas if you have a solid process but the outcome of a specific event is not what you had hoped, you have a good chance that the next outcome will be better.

I'm not entirely convinced that EG had the right process in each of his decisions, but neither do I think he had the 100% wrong process. For example, what if he had taken Curry in '09? Lots of posters here would say he was a genius. Now, suppose that Curry's injuries turn out to be career threatening (not hard to imagine, if he'd been on the Wiz). That outcome would be terrible - arguably worse than the outcome we got, since his salary would still be on the books. But no one would say that he did the "wrong" thing, even though the results were disastrous.

So yeah, open mind and all that. I won't go out and burn any couches if EG is retained, mainly for the same reasons you mentioned. If I was making the call, I'd bring in some new blood (GM & Coach, IN THAT ORDER), but then again it's not my call.

Another important thing when doing after the fact analysis is that you can only really judge individual decisions because each individual decision alters the future. It's why - as we know from Star Trek - you can't go back in time and change something because that could other things that you don't want to change. So If EG had not made the Miller/Foye 5th pick trade and had drafted Curry instead - our path would have been completely changed. The same if he had drafted Rubio. If we had drafted Rubio, then maybe he would have come to the US sooner than he went to Minnesota; then maybe he would have developed even faster; then maybe we would have drafted Cousins instead of John Wall, or maybe traded John Wall for a massive haul of players and picks. Who knows? Except it's pretty pointless to debate more than one move at time because each one changes the setup.

It's the same in football when an extra point is missed early in the game and that team ultimately loses by one point. Almost always the media and fans say the missed extra point cost the game but it really didn't (usually) because if they had scored the point, the other team would have acted differently if the score was tied instead of being up by one point. And the team that missed the point would act differently being down by a point instead of being tied.

The reality is that the guy that just simply KILLED the Wiz is Abe Polin. He's the one that valued friendship over substance by letting Unseld run the show for so long and he's the one that over valued personal sentiment (personally really loved Gilbert). Once your boss says you have to do whatever necessary to keep Gilbert, you are kind of doomed. Keeping Gilbert happy is why EG drafted NY, resigned Deshawn, and of course gave a big extension to Jaimison. Everybody on the team was there based on how they would make Gilbert happy. It's why EG traded the #5 pick for solid veterans like Miller and Foye. Win now and surround Gilbert with solid players.

And Ted would know about it all because he was in the meetings or heard about them after. That's probably why Ted gives EG a complete pass for all of that. If you asked EG HOW he would run the team if he was the owner -- I really doubt that he would have done many of the things he actually did in those years.

For those who suggested this earlier in the thread as far as why didn't EG fight back harder against the explicit orders of his boss??? Huh? Really? Tell your boss he's stupid? Say that you're going to have to fire me rather than sign the player you as the owner want me to sign? Sorry, that's not the way the world works.

[Zonkerbl]

If you do not know how to have a reasonable conversation with your boss over something you know more about, than you suck at your job.

Pure and simple. It is your RESPONSIBILITY to stand up to your boss, tactfully of course, if you know something, based on your area of expertise, that's going to affect the good of the company.

Failures fear and avoid confrontation. Jerks seek confrontation and put people off (and get fired). A successful leader communicates and influences. If EG is getting paid $4.5 million a year, more than ANY OTHER GM IN THE LEAGUE, then GOSH DIGGITY DARN IT he better say something to Abe. He better be able to talk Abe out of bad ideas. THAT IS HIS JOB.

[Benjammin]

^^^
Yeah, I'm really tired of the whole "Abe ran the show like a combination of Al Davis and Jerry Jones" line of thinking. As Zonker has pointed out, it's EG's job to articulate effectively and persuasively the vision and direction of the franchise. It's all too convenient to put every bad decision on Pollin.